Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

FrodaddyG

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    541

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by FrodaddyG

  1. FrodaddyG
    That initial point was in reference to the "obviously due to improve" argument someone made earlier in this discussion. He may end up putting up similar numbers, but there's a pretty good chance (75% of his MLB PAs to this point) that he ends up quite a bit closer to that 610 OPS line, and then we're hoping he brings a turd sandwich in return. In reality, his past season was about as good a season statistically as you can realistically expect from a no-power, no-plate-discipline speedster, and selling now would be maximizing his trade value. Again, unless there's a sudden, inexplicable increase in his ability to walk or a 50 point jump in his BA, there's little reason to believe that his 2012 results can be improved upon, and plenty of reason (again, 75% of his MLB PAs) that argue he could do markedly worse.
  2. FrodaddyG
    Revere has, in essence, 2 MLB seasons of PAs. In one and a half of them, he put up an OPS barely clearing 600. In the other half a season, he managed to hit at a 725 OPS clip. Which of these samples seems more indicative of the real player? Call me nuts, but I'm going to lean towards the 750 PAs instead of the other 300. I'm not going to bother with the specifics of his downward trend in his minors career, given that he hasn't OPSed over 750 since low A ball in 2008. That is with him scraping out an average just above .300 on a yearly basis, so what exactly is going to send his production suddenly shooting upward now that he's at the highest level of competition? Is he suddenly going to hit .350? Grow some man muscles on his 170 lb frame that will make a defense play deeper than a typical softball team on a field with 300 foot fences? Suddenly learn to take a walk? Something has to happen if he's going to make a legit improvement other than crossing your fingers and hoping some more dribblers find their way through a gap.
  3. FrodaddyG
    His three month sample you are citing as "good Revere" is bookended by 750 PAs of an OPS barely north of 600. And 250 of those were his most recent chunk of PAs. It's not just a "gut feeling", it's a trend he has exhibited over the past two seasons, where the "good Revere" sample seems to be the outlier. And one thing that can translate into a low BABIP is a slight-framed guy who doesn't hit the ball particularly hard, i.e. a guy who weighs 170 lbs. If he isn't driving the ball (and I'd consider a low LD% a decent indicator of such) then all the speed in the world won't help if you're slapping around dribblers, because most of those won't make it through an infield.
  4. FrodaddyG
    And those numbers are sickly similar to his 2011 numbers, .267/.310/.309. SSS. Only 481 PAs. He is OBVIOUSLY due to explode this year.
  5. FrodaddyG
    Because he has better command, throws just as hard, and already has a great feel for his change. There's a reason he went in the top 4, and was in the discussion at #1 overall, and Meyer was a late first round guy. The later guys generally have more warts, and the guys that go at the very top are usually more polished. And I'd guess they passed because they had Buxton higher on their board. Best player available is the only way to go when you're picking at the top of the draft.
  6. FrodaddyG
    No, he's significantly more valuable.
  7. FrodaddyG
    265/310/300 That was Revere's last two months and 250 PAs. If that guy shows up for a significant portion of this season, then his value will indeed plummet. There's very few players who will "undoubtedly improve", and a guy with that stretch under his belt, (And his most recent stretch at that.) would not be among them. If they can market the "675 OPS" Revere from 2012 and get anything in return, then by all means, do it. That guy did show up for a significant portion of 2011, 50% of his PA's in fact, and there apparently is still plenty of interest. So why exactly would next season be so different? Because if his overall line keeps trending where it did the last two months, the not-really-as-good-as-it-looks 675 OPS turns into a 620 OPS and suddenly the "serviceable hitter who plays great defense" becomes a "defense-only guy" as a trade chip.
  8. FrodaddyG
    265/310/300 That was Revere's last two months and 250 PAs. If that guy shows up for a significant portion of this season, then his value will indeed plummet. There's very few players who will "undoubtedly improve", and a guy with that stretch under his belt, (And his most recent stretch at that.) would not be among them. If they can market the "675 OPS" Revere from 2012 and get anything in return, then by all means, do it.
  9. FrodaddyG
    In this case, any moderately competent agent's response would be: "If you're giving him such 'easily attainable' incentives, just include them in the guaranteed section." An agent is out for one thing, and that's maximum guaranteed money for their guy. If that means they throw out a couple theoretical millions in incentives (in this hypothetical you've put forward) to get an extra guaranteed couple million, they do it. They aren't in the business of "well, sure we're leaving a certain $4M on the table, but there's a 10% chance we get that back, plus more!" They're hustling to get the most guaranteed they can. Period. They have no investment in the performance of their client beyond what it means for their next contract, and whatever "good feeling" would come from hitting incentives for a player is meaningless for an agent. Leaving millions on the table that could disappear in one snapped ligament is foolish for both the livelihood of their client and themselves. The union stance on maximizing salaries for their members at any cost does nothing to dissuade them from these kinds of thinking.
  10. FrodaddyG
    What is acceptable? Revere's .333 OBP was .014 points higher than average. but, my argument all along is that Revere should be extended, and paid, as a 9 hitter, not as a replacement for Span in the order at leadoff. Mauer or Hicks might be the better choice for that. And why, exactly, should locking up a NUMBER 9 HITTER be a priority for a team that just lost close to 100 games two straight seasons?
  11. FrodaddyG
    This may be the funniest thing I've ever read on the internet. Well played.
  12. FrodaddyG
    Two words: Players. Union.
  13. FrodaddyG
    I still wish I could have been there for the "RRRREEEEEWWWW!!!" chants in his Japanese league games.
  14. FrodaddyG
    He said 2015.
  15. FrodaddyG
    Ain't autocorrect a batch?
  16. FrodaddyG
    Well, he was up right against the deadline. Oh wait, he still had an extra 3 days and another Liriano start to use to try and field other offers. He took the pupu platter when it was offered instead of using every bit of leverage he had, including another potential start today. What's the worst that could happen by waiting? Suddenly Mateo Tolberto is removed from the offer? Oh, the tragedy! However would a team possibly fill a utility spot with a guy who can't hit?
  17. FrodaddyG
    That's the main point against the trade I have. The Twins don't need mediocrity that's close to MLB ready. The Rochester roster is full of that. They need possible impact talent, even if it's further away. That's what Ryan said he was going for, then took the exact opposite.
  18. FrodaddyG
    I'm guessing they somehow confused the BB rate and K rate columns when looking at stats and assumed he's trending upward.
  19. FrodaddyG
    So essentially the Twins just picked out two of the most mediocre tumbleweeds they could find?
  20. FrodaddyG
    You know how many gold toilets you can upgrade to platinum commodes for $2M?
  21. FrodaddyG
    It's cute how many spambots Danny has following him.
  22. FrodaddyG
    The way he did in his (larger than AAA) AA sample size this year?
  23. FrodaddyG
    Someone is offering him a multi-year deal. This I promise you. The flashes of dominance he shows are like GM catnip for a free agent. It's not liek there's going to be a huge crop of great FA pitchers this offseason.
  24. FrodaddyG
    The CBA where the Twins give a qualifying offer and get a comp pick when he declines? That CBA?
  25. FrodaddyG
    Say I offer you $50K (paid up front) to work for my company next year. I then offer you $100K (all up front) to work for my company for the next for three years, but there's a 10% chance you'll be crippled in a car accident in the next year and never work again. Either way, you keep all the money. Which do you take?
×
×
  • Create New...