biggentleben

I love the signing. He should do very well in the crap division the Braves are in, and he's going to eat innings. The Braves have a lot of talent better than Medlen in the rotation, but Medlen would have been a solid 200-220 innings, so that's really what they needed to replace.

Yeah, no doubt there, but if for some reason they trade back, there are a number of guys in the 15-25 range that could be solid to pick up.

Tony Oliva.

Completely depends on the report you read. One of the reports that was given to a Baseball Prospectus reporter was that he had a power arm, solid bat, and could play around the infield. I think that last part was interpreted as utility player in a lot of circles, but many have said that he simply has the arm to move to 3rd and the reactions to stick at 2B if he can't play SS, not that he can't play any of them at a starting caliber level.

Not to mention an organization that can absolutely maximize that gamble. My thought when I heard Cardinals was that the reports about his lack of true SS ability was probably true, but that he likely showed enough to play some at 2B/SS/3B with a worthwhile bat, a profile that the Cardinals absolutely love.

I'm not sure if DT is as much as a bust position as it is a tough position to prove effectiveness. Pat Williams was one of the more effective DTs in the league in his time with the Vikings, but he never really had tackles or sacks or anything you can put on paper to prove it. Russell Maryland was absolutely worth the pick he was selected at, but he gets seen as a "bust" possibility (even though he's a worthy consideration for the HOF!) because he was drafted so highly and never really had any big stats to show for it. More recently, Glen Dorsey has faced similar scrutiny, though if you watch the game closely, his ability to occupy 2+ blockers is what allows a guy like Derrick Johnson to be the beast that he is. Not saying there aren't plenty that do bust, but I don't think it's any more than any other position. It's just that typically the most hype a defensive interior guy ever gets is leading up to the draft because they just aren't very hyped at all in the pro game.

I hope that he's looking for a one-year deal, and I really hope (after Medlen's injury today) that he is excited about a one-year deal for an NL team to build his value back up.

A better way to look at it would be that if the Twins allow less runs this season with Kurt Suzuki than last season with Joe Mauer, there's a 30% chance that it would have something to do with pitch framing.

Matt Williamson was on the Ross Tucker Football Podcast this week, and he stated that the Vikings re-signing Cassel would not prevent him from starting the season under center in Houston as Houston has great picks they could offer for Cassel, but the Vikings could have blocked any attempt to sign him the way his contract had been set up previously. O'Brien is a big fan of Cassel's, so it might mean the Vikings get a 3rd or 4th round pick for him from Houston.

Not exactly. What 0.3 means is that for every 1 run change, there's a 30% chance that catcher framing had something to do with that, and 70% chance that it was coincidence that better framing led to a better runs allowed number. Also, realize that catching impacts the game much differently than center field defense or single hitter OBP because you have one player who receives every pitch of the game for a team, typically. If Mauer hit every single time, you'd be able to see how his OBP translated to higher runs scored. The best way to view causality in hitting statistics is through team statistics, not individual, because an individual's hitting has such a tiny bearing on the overall outcome of the game. In a perfectly pitched game against the Twins, for instance, Mauer would come to the plate 3 times. He's only responsible for 11% of the team's plate appearances that day, so 89% of the Twins offense on that day was decided by someone other than Mauer, and the percentage gets smaller the longer the game goes. With catcher framing, it's not true that everything else only accounts for 70% of runs allowed. The statistic is saying that, for example, the average major league team with average defense and an average catch framer will allow 300 runs in a full season. A team could have allowed 290 runs, and they had a good pitch framer at catcher, but the issue is that that framing could be because they went out and signed every Brad Radke and Greg Maddux type in the game, and no one was missing a spot at all, so runs went down because there weren't mistake pitches. That would increase the framing scores because umpires in general like pitches that hit exactly where the catcher put the glove, even if it's a bit off of the plate. What that number is saying is that for a runs change, there's a 30% chance that pitch framing contributed to it. There could still be 100% chance that a slick fielding shortstop contributed to it as well as that 30% chance of pitch framing contributing. They're looking at each thing as independent, so having good pitch framing and average everything else has a 30% chance of leading to better run prevention. I'd be curious to find out what having everything else average, but having high-end defense from shortstop would correlate to in run prevention, because I have a good feeling it's well over 0.5.

Frank Jobe, the surgeon who invented Tommy John surgery, dead at 88

With correlation comparisons, a perfect 1 is a perfect correlation, indicating causality (doing A causes B to happen) while a negative one is a perfect negative correlation, meaning there is a completely adverse relationship in causality (doing A causes the opposite of B to happen). In most statistical analysis, you want a correlation of 0.5 or better to show some sort of causality between variables. For instance, you can say that the consumption of tea is higher in the summer than in the winter. If your data showed a correlation equivalent of 0.3, you'd likely conclude that tea and summer seem to go together, but there doesn't seem to be strong causality. Basically, if you look at the number it's a measure of how much of 1 is cause and how much is coincidence. A score of 0.3 would mean that 30% of runs allowed and catch framing has something to do with catch framing causing a runs allowed difference and 70% coincidence. Once you get over a 0.5, there's a lot more causality to assign to catch framing changing the runs allowed by a team.

That's the problem. The guys I wouldn't have dropped were gone before I even got to pick. That's what bugged me the most.

Yikes, you don't think much of the NL East!

I'm more than a little frustrated with switching providers midstream. February 15th is the start of the minor league portion of my other three leagues, so I didn't have time to devote to messing around with settings on a new provider. It should have been done immediately after the vote before the minor league draft was even held, so people had the chance to experience the format. Then to drop my players without sending me a personal email (because you need to set up email notifications on the site so I hadn't gotten any other notifications) was complete bull. I've already sent Tim my feelings on this, so I'm not saying anything I haven't said to him as well, but the leagues I'm commish or co-commish on, I go the extra mile to make sure I personally contact someone, not just rely on the website. It bugged me quite a bit to have the powers that be show that sort of laissez faire attitude toward owners who are putting up money to participate in the league.

I'd do Fielder for Freeman in this format every day of the week and twice on Sunday if I got Freeman. Freeman has shown at every single level that he adapts, then improves the second go-round. He's never been at a level for a third try, but his strikeout rate and walk rate each improved last season. His BABIP was high, but that has been normal with him and with his swing. I'd not be surprised if he settles in as a 100-walk, 120-K sort of guy over a full season, which is roughly what Prince was at his peak. I also think Freddie's a lot more athletic than people give him credit for, so he'll stay at 1B and his line drive swing will allow for high batting averages and solid power along the way as well.

Review by who the pitchers were, not the stats they had. I do think the pitchers matter some in pitch framing, but he has worked with good pitchers, but with pretty poor framability types. Jurrjens and Hanson may have had good results in those seasons, but their pitches were not ones that'd be good framing guys. The best argument for "pitchers aid in framing" is a guy who is more Radke/Maddux with control using fastball and changeup rather than movement using sliders and curveballs.

First, NL vs. AL, but looking at the team ERA hides the job the coaches did with some pretty crappy pitchers and the job McCann and David Ross did handling the pitching staff. The 2013 Braves were excellent, and the bullpens have been amazing recently, but there have been a mix of hodge-podge types in the rotation.

Really? You know you're referencing some pretty poor staffs in that time frame. The Braves have built up their pitching, but the 2008 team's pitching was putrid outside of Tim Hudson before he was injured. The Braves pitching from 2009-2012 could have been characterized as mix and match. One excellent season from Javier Vazquez versus three putrid Derek Lowe seasons. Yes, the pitching was better, but McCann is actually tremendously good at framing from the naked eye. Picking out McCann won't help your argument, as he's one of the more underrated defensive catchers in baseball because he's not exceptional at any metric, but he is very good in nearly everything to do with defensive catching, even when he has had some injuries recently. He also had one of the best teachers at framing that one could possibly have in David Ross.

I agree, but there are arguments out there that "ZOMG, there are only 5 people looking at these stats, but 55 scouts on staff?! Obviously Team X hasn't bought into analysis!" That sort of thinking isn't educated in understanding the nuances of what's going on, but for the casual fan, it's what they see.

Yeah, I'm not saying they should stay back and do nothing, but simply hiring 100 staffers for the point of hiring 100 staffers is not exactly progress for a team. The Pirates 12 months ago were in the midst of being bashed for odd training methods as they were trying different things along the way. Interesting no one mentioned that as they made their first playoff appearance since Jim Leyland was managing them.

Thrylos mentioned it as well, but a lot of people want to go from 0 to 60 in analytics. It's just not that simple. You can hire the perfect team and find that it makes all of about a half game of difference until you find exactly the information you need and craft a roster to meet what you find. The Pirates started making some big strides about 4 years ago in analytics, and while they had improvements before last year, last season was their first season about .500 after making many moves to bring in players that fit what they thought they could do. The Pirates were actually the team that shifted the most in 2013.

Arizona Diamondbacks - 80.5...OVER Atlanta Braves - 87.5...OVER Baltimore Orioles - 80.5...UNDER Boston Red Sox - 87.5...OVER Chicago Cubs - - 69.5...UNDER Chicago White Sox - 75.5...UNDER Cincinnati Reds - 84.5...OVER Cleveland Indians - 80.5...UNDER Colorado Rockies - 76.5...UNDER Detroit Tigers - 89.5...OVER Houston Astros - 62.5...OVER Kansas City Royals - 81.5...OVER Los Angeles Angels - 86.5...UNDER Los Angeles Dodgers - 92.5...UNDER Miami Marlins - 69.5...OVER Milwaukee Brewers - 79.5...UNDER Minnesota Twins - 70.5...OVER New York Mets - 73.5...UNDER New York Yankees - 86.5...OVER Oakland Athletics - 88.5...OVER Philadelphia Phillies - 76.5...UNDER Pittsburgh Pirates - 83.5...OVER San Diego Padres - 78.5...OVER San Francisco Giants - 86.5...UNDER Seattle Mariners - 81.5...UNDER St. Louis Cardinals - 90.5...OVER Tampa Bay Rays - 88.5...UNDER Texas Rangers - 86.5...UNDER Toronto Blue Jays - 79.5...OVER Washington Nationals - 88.5...UNDER Tie breaker: The two AL WC teams will be: New York and Kansas City Tie breaker 2: The two NL WC teams will be: Washington and Cincinnati

Carr shouldn't go in the first round at all.

H's been a SS his entire major league career. When he was coming up, there was some worry about his arm strength, so the Angels started him at 2B after signing him. He showed more range than expected and a lot more arm, and as he moved to the upper levels in 2011, he moved to SS, and he's not played a game anywhere else since.