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PseudoSABR

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Everything posted by PseudoSABR

  1. PseudoSABR
  2. PseudoSABR
    Nate Silver sees Obama's chances at over 70 percent. I just don't see how the math works in Romney's favor. Obama will need to have a serious gaffe in order for Romney to win.
  3. PseudoSABR
    You sound like an impartial independent voter with all the forgoing. <<<Sarcasm>>> I hope no on carelessly drops an ember on this field of straw men. Don't bother asking me to point all them out either in order to begin an argument. Just read it over carefully and reflectively. Be proud to call yourself progressive/liberal and move on.org. Are you being serious? Because I can show you some liberal/progressive ideas, so you can better spot them in the future. My new liberal ideas: an army of pick pocketers on Wall Street, and squatting training sessions at community theaters and how to live off student loans into your fifties!
  4. PseudoSABR
    How do we enforce personal responsibility? How far are you willing to go? People in the streets? Starvation at some halfway house? Duct tape and spit as a safety net? How grizzly should we allow our human ethics grow to teach people this lesson? (Poor people, just try harder! Learn some personal responsibility! Or else!) We all agree that people need to take personal responsibility. But it's lazy and glib to insist on them to just magically acquire it. Pig is spot on that we need welfare programs to actually WORK and succeed at job placement, but that costs money and takes planning and talented people, we can't expect further and further scaled down programs to manage that. Again, people are being cheap. There might be a short term loss in bolstering welfare-to-job programs (say paired with public works projects), but you'd effectively change worthless citizens into contributors. (For the record Ryan voted for TARP and both Wars.) Paul Ryan has a NON-PLAN. His plan is to get rid of the social welfare plans, not fix them. Ryan seems to have no interest making better social welfare programs. And let's be clear, the market is not going to swoop in and provide jobs for loads of unskilled workers--Now, that's naive.
  5. PseudoSABR
    Jocko hit a lot of the points I was going to. Yes he's pretty far right fiscally, but that may be exactly what we need. The reality is that we can raise taxes and cut the military and STILL have a problem. I, for one, appreciate someone willing to take on the actual problem even if it isn't politically popular. We should all be looking for that in our elected officials. And the line of reasoning that the republicans want to make kids dumb and leave seniors in the streets doesn't fly with me either. As if republicans don't have kids and parents and people they care about. I firmly believe that nobody will take care of you better than yourself, certainly not the government, and we need to get back to that line of thinking. Right. But that's totally naive. What about people that can't or won't care for themselves? What about people without family to care for them? Yes, dumb kids and people in the streets is what you get. We should encourage people to be individually responsible, but not be so naive to believe that everyone is able to do so. Stop being so cheap; that's your problem. This reminds of the dumbest advice in the world: poor people should just try harder. (I seriously can't believe Levi gave this guy any credibility.)
  6. PseudoSABR
    Jocko hit a lot of the points I was going to. Yes he's pretty far right fiscally, but that may be exactly what we need. The reality is that we can raise taxes and cut the military and STILL have a problem. I, for one, appreciate someone willing to take on the actual problem even if it isn't politically popular. We should all be looking for that in our elected officials. Everyone is for getting rid of spending on frivolous toilet seats and the like, but that argument is totally disingenuous (I mean, seriously?). Newt, yes NEWT!, called the Ryan budget plan "suicide" and "right wing social engineering." His idea of budget cuts are totally extreme and imbalancely affects the poorest and weakest Americans. I'm just not sure who is this "we" you're talking about, because it's certainly not me or my extended family or friends. In my opinion, the people who can afford to bare the burden of hard economic times should bare the burden. I don't buy that supply-side, job-creator crap for one second.
  7. PseudoSABR
    The Rays are a great organization and have done a fantastic job at almost every level. But remember that their success is recent. They had a decade of picking in the top five every season. During that same period, the Twins rarely drafted higher than 15th. I'm not discounting the Rays' success but the real test will be their player development on the guys they draft when they had to pick 20th or later in the draft every June. Since Price was taken with the first overall pick in 2007, Tampa Bay has not had a drafted player contribute to their major league team. Not entirely unexpected but still something to consider. The Twins had a shot at most of the Ray's starting Pitching. Matt Moore 8th round 2007 Jeremy Hellickson 4th round 2005 Alex Cobb 4th round 2006 James Shields 16TH round 2000 So did every other team.
  8. PseudoSABR
    He's pretty far right, though Levi. Shrinking government spending from 12.5% of GDP to 3.75? Vouchers? Getting rid of Medicaid? I don't see how this wins middleclass or swing votes. It will rally fiscal conservatives, but such people will have to throw off their "moderate" clothing.
  9. PseudoSABR
    No, it's doubling down. It's a wet dream for you, but my first reaction is that I don't see how this pick wins the White House. He's a career politician with no business experience. His right-wing fiscal policies certainly pair with Romney's perceived agenda, but I don't see how he curries any new voters nor does he seem to sure up any weaknesses.
  10. PseudoSABR
    I really want to see Beyonce naked. Do you think porn stars are nymphos that put out on the first date? I do. How come I didn't go to Rio while I was single? Guess it wouldn't really matter anyway... right ... right... right... The ... is supposed to be nudging with my elbow in case you didn't know it already. Did you know that the tip of a wind turbine blade spins at about 300 miles per hour? I like cheese. Trolpo?!
  11. PseudoSABR
    Except that people continuously show they don't understand risk management. There are studies that show many humans can't differentiate between risks. They don't know if scenario A presents more risk then scenario B. The housing collapse in large part was because people didn't understand the risks of Variable Rate Mortgages. Climate Change is not being confronted because many people can't accurately assess the risk. Texting while you drive. Driving Drunk. If you want to get more focused on baseball and the Twins specifically just about every time somebody says: "Count on [insert minor league player] to start next year" and especially when it's Gibson or Baker there seems to be an inability to properly assess the risk involved. Long rebuttal longer; I disagree with your assumption that people understand risk management. That's why there are entire firms that do nothing but analyze risk. How about all the people (or the vast majority) participating in this conversation, in this specific thread, understand risk management. The posters in this thread are pretty smart and better educated than you're giving them credit for. Honestly, your posts are oddly patronizing and naive at the same time. Will your next post be about the need to mitigate sunk costs? Oh boy.
  12. PseudoSABR
    But you can't plan around bad luck. If **** happens, it happens. The Twins have had plenty of good luck in the past and have won the division or come very close with heavily flawed teams (2008/09 are great examples). Oh I agree, Nick.
  13. PseudoSABR
    Not totally bizarre, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. Even if the Twins make all the right moves, just a little bit of bad luck will keep the the team from competing. (And I think that's Levi's point.)
  14. PseudoSABR
    Gut feeling? The Pohlads could be far more interested in their legacy than profit for all we know (after all owning a baseball team is rather vane, a self-effigy of sorts).
  15. PseudoSABR
    Let's just assume everyone understands what risk management is and move on. Really. I understand TR will have payroll flexibility and I'm eager to watch what happens; it's simply hard to imagine TR making multiple big piece moves during the offseason. As other's have suggested there's no precedence for Terry Ryan having 25 million to spend. It's still hard for me to imagine he'll spend it all... Levi is right in that the Twins can't mitigate backsliding by players performing well this year, but as long as the Twins don't trade more than one of Span/Morneau, the minor league offers some real depth. The notion that competing in 2013 somehow sacrifices competing in 2014 and 2015, etc. just doesn't hold water as any move made this offseason will presumably be made with an eye on the future. I don't think you can plan for some mythical year when you might finally compete and only spend money then--that's the Royals.
  16. PseudoSABR
    I agree with most of this. Whether the Twins actually acquire pitching assets for next year's team remains to be seen. It's just not like Terry Ryan to be bold. I can't imagine him signing a FA pitcher to a long term deal (needed to get anyone good) and trade for another ML-ready starting pitcher in the same off season.
  17. PseudoSABR
    Bing? For shame.
  18. PseudoSABR
    What kind of production would Morneau have to have in order for you to consider an extension? After all, in the 2014/15/16, who else will be paying beyond Mauer and inexpensive Willingham*. I'd be tempted to give Morneau Willingham's deal. (Afterall, it ain't our money. /hattip usafchief) *I find it hard to believe the Twins would really invest high amounts of dollars in FA pitching, but if the Twins were willing to, trading Morneau for snot rags might be more palatable.
  19. PseudoSABR
    Can that little guy turn a double play?
  20. PseudoSABR
    Revere is the kind of guy the Twins hold onto, whether he's producing or not--so I see the chances of trading him at pretty much nil, despite however it makes sense.
  21. PseudoSABR
    How many games left are in E-towns season? A months worth? Still happy to see what they can do in a new league...
  22. PseudoSABR
    Nishi didn't look gawdawful in that at bat. That's something.
  23. PseudoSABR
    ..
  24. PseudoSABR
    http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2012_08_05_rocaaa_tolaaa_1 Escobar and Parm with homers. http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2012_08_05_altaax_nbraax_1 new brit knocked gerrit cole out of the fifth inning Arcia 3/4 with a walk; Benson had three hits and a homer. http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2012_08_04_rsxrok_twirok_1 Buxton with a homer, a triple, a walk, and another hit. Berrios had 6ks over 2.2 coming out of the bullpen. The other games weren't interesting enough to link to.
  25. PseudoSABR
    No one's saying it's a right. However, it's unethical, imho, to deny privileges to some people based on sexual preferences. I suppose the gov't doesn't HAVE to grant dog licences to Latinos, but it'd be pretty craptastic if they didn't.
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