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PseudoSABR

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  1. What are the Rays doing? Trading for Cron, then waiving Dickerson and trading Ordorizzi for Jermaine Palacios? Is Palacios even a top 20 guy (he was like two years ago, right)?
  2. Clearly, he wouldn't have accepted. I'm sure they tried to offer Tillman something similar, and I'm sure other teams offered Sanchez something a bit more than a minor league invite. The contract is structured in such a way that they have every reason to end this experiment early.
  3. If not now, then when? If everything shakes out poorly, the alternative is what, another full rebuild? Wait for Royce Lewis and others to get ready and then make FA moves? There's risk inherent no matter when the Twins decide to go for it.
  4. He and others have been saying that throughout the offseason, and have done so not just about Darvish, but FA's willingness to come to Minnesota in general, due to the weather, the market, and other negative platitudes. It sounds like speculation, rather than source-work (i.e. "reason to believe" rather than "insider/person-familiar suggests").
  5. Wolfson has a few tidbits in this podcast. Says the Twins offered either a 4 or 5 year offer to Darvish, unwilling to go 6. One of the most aggressive teams. Napoli likely to receive offer from Twins, who is actively recruiting Darvish. Maintaining regular contact with number of free agents, and with the Tampa Rays about Archer and others, with Kepler perhaps as the center piece.
  6. That's why sample size matters. Over the course of 150 to 200 innings, any starting pitcher is likely to have such aberrations (facing more strikeout prone batters and the like) mitigated by the long season and facing a variety of batters in a variety of situations. For instance, if a guy has a really high k/9 rate, but only has 130 innings and 30 games started, that tells you that the pitcher is wearing himself out getting those Ks and you'll need a very good bullpen to bridge the gap to the end of the game. But if you have high k/9 rate and a 180 innings, there's not much concern about the K-rate being misleading.
  7. This was referenced in the Archer thread, but is more relevant here. John Morosi on the Darvish market.
  8. I think they have a plan (or an idea of one) to "fix" Kinley that could make him ML ready; they'll use spring training to figure that out. I'm sure they went to the add process for Rule 5 purposes differently than the Rule 5 draft. That is, the decision/process to not add Burdi and Bard were separate from the decision/process to draft Kinley.
  9. Chin Music agrees that the Twins are the best fit.
  10. 1) Sexual harassment isn't a crime or necessarily a compensable tort claim. No ones suggested that. There are certainly times where sexual harassment would amount to a crime in some instances, and be compensable in a civil suit, in other instances. 2) Sexual harassment is a fireable offense in nearly all professional work places., likely because of your employment contract. Go into a work place and yell your suggestion, and see how it goes over. 3) If a 18 year old bangs a consenting 17 year-old classmate, I doubt there's much harm there. The point is there are plenty of behaviors which are criminalized that don't always cause harm, even if they might sometimes. 4) I know what I'm talking about. PM me for my credentials.
  11. The Twins have so much payroll coming off the books next year, that I think they can structure a deal with Darvish so that it doesn't balloon payroll to such an extent this season.
  12. May not mean much, but clearly there's a working relationship between the agency and the Twins.
  13. Generally, such advice is warranted. But sometimes it's clear a person hasn't done the necessary research to entitle them to their opinion, and they ought to be called out on it. Not doing your homework is pretty unforgivable. (And they need not be a lawyer to do research; nor does being a lawyer entitle them to not do research, or have the correct opinion).
  14. A crime is what we say a crime is (defined by our legislatures or our congress). There need not be any harm. Intent matters, but not harm. (For instance, sleeping with a consenting minor is a crime, smoking pot is a crime, speeding is a crime; show me the harm.). In terms of suing some one under tort law (civil law), yes there needs to be a harm, but that harm can indeed be psychological and emotional. You can sue some one for intent to emotionally inflect harm. Really. Harassment may not be a crime (yet), but it is something that workplaces and schools seek to root out. Harassment does not equal assault. Stop using the assault standard to judge harassment. If the person who retaliates does so in outsized measure they deserve more punishment. Self-defense is a defense to criminal and civil liability, but it must be reasonable given the actions of the instigator. If a women slaps you, you do not get to cold-cock her. If a women draws a gun on you, you do get to use life threatening force to defend yourself (but that's never the example.) I'm glad you are engaging in this conversation, but I do suggest you study the law more, and the real experience of women-victims of violence. I don't believe you've done either.
  15. In criminal law, women are held accountable for the very actions you take issue with. If they commit an assault, they get charged with it, all the time. And if Ray Rice's wife were a professional athlete or a celebrity, her actions would have come under scrutiny as well (but hardly what ever she did to be the first aggressor condones being knocked out cold. Come on, man). The "true" harm standard you advocate for is problematic on so many levels. Yes yelling at someone in sexual or sexist way is sexual harassment. It is not assault, but it is harassment. How the heck are we suppose to measure 'true' harm when the harm is psychological, social, and systemic? Whatever disproportionality manifests through false accusation is far, far outweighed by the disproportionate number of men in positions of power. Perhaps, it's the power dynamic at play, rather than some innate bias against men.
  16. Good thing that's not happening in any "official" sense; as for it happening on social media--well, awkward pick-up lines are are hardly the only way to get eviscerated. If by nuance you mean grandfathering in old bad habits, some how exempting the awkward--well, no, I don't think that's any kind of solution. But if you mean nuance by looking at each situation case-by-case within its context, absolutely, and no one is pushing back against it. What I'm pushing back against is the notion that its too much to ask for men to discern what is or is not appropriate. Where there is grey area (what little there really is), men should seek clarification and weigh on the side of caution. I imagine there's all kinds of tactics that HR people, educators, sociologists have come up with to aid men in making that determination. What I don't want is to drag our feet on this issue in defense of the jerk who holds himself out as the awkward guy.
  17. We're now just arriving at a cultural moment were sexual harassment is not the norm. I think it's a knee-jerk reaction to start worrying about the sexual-harassment Gestapo. Again, I don't know of any sexual harassment policy that has a one-allegation and your done rule. Most policies have the flexibility to forgive and redress mistake. But for more severe conduct--like a mistake in sexual consent--isn't forgivable, like a mistake in giving an unsolicited compliment is; the policies should, and I believe do, account for the distinction. Largely lack of enforcement and unwillingness for victims come forward have been the factors that left sexual harassment unaddressed. It's on the awkward people to get up to speed on what's appropriate, not on us. I was awkward, but I had no problem discerning what might be inappropriate and in fact, steered well clear of any gray area (part of my awkwardness). If awkward guys have a harder time getting dates as a result of sexual harassment policies--well, so be it; our society can live with it. Again, there won't be any severe consequences if the mistake is honest, minor, and they learn from it. (And honestly, you're better than painting my argument as an insincere charade to be part of some partisan group. You're saying context will make the distinction more gray; I'm saying it will make the distinction of whether there is sexual harassment more clear and simpler.)
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