PseudoSABR

Well, they needed a left-hander in that 2017 bullpen, no?

6'3" 208lbs DOB: 06/21/93Clay was a two-sport star in high school and didn’t pitch much for the Yellow Jackets as a freshman, as he began concentrating on baseball for the first time. He took on a larger role in the bullpen this spring, becoming one of their most important relievers. Clay’s fastball typically sits in the low-90s and touches a bit higher. He complements it with a hard slider that flashes above-average potential. Primarily, Clay is a two-pitch pitcher, but he also throws a curveball and changeup at times. Though he has enough stuff to start, he is still somewhat raw and will need to improve his control. Clay is a Draft-eligible sophomore and would have two more years of eligibility if he chooses to return to school. Via MLB

Depends on Eddie, depends on the health and production of the outfield at that time, depends on our level of competition. They certainly won't hurry him if they aren't competitive.

Velocity is about a sure bet as there is in drafting an arm. This how you avoid relying on Guerriers and Burtons in the bullpen year after year. Starting is certainly sexy. But the Twins do have a bevvy of under-twenty arms that should continue to develop as starters. Getting some real talent to close out games is part of a winning strategy. All that said, it won't hurt to try starting one or both these guys.

In the lower minors, they actually do. So much so they can't find a rotation spot for Stephan Gonsalves and just now have made room for Thorpe and Romero.

Welcome to Minnesota, Mr. Gordon.

Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS 34s cubs to take kyle schwarber, indiana c-of

So much for Kolek dropping. I hope we don't see both Gordon/Rodon go 3/4.

If we're going after a St Louis outfielder, let's go after the younger guys stuck behind Taverez like Randall Grichuk or James Ramsey.

On a platter. With first base open, that's a pretty unforgivable serving.

Right. I was surprised they pushed him to the AFL, but that was probably to see if it was worth spending a roster space on him (rather than risking to him the Rule 5 draft). Kelpler still only has this year and two more before he's out of options, no? So there is a clock.

Buxton by May 2014? This May?

Surrounding Gardy, who's been something of a player's coach, with coaches who have strategic and technical expertise seems to be paying off. I'm not sure how Molitor manages the clubhouse or personalities, but maybe the Twins have pretty optimal staff as is. That Gardy's retirement vests at the end of this season seemed to lay the foundation for his departure, though that seems a bit premature now...

I almost put rally monkey in parenthesis for the final option, but I worried the joke is too esoteric and old for most get it.

There's only fourteen games, for some reason I thought the Milwaukee split series was five games. Does the two-and-two thing happen every season? In any case, this is the kind of stretch in recent years where the Twins have buckled; all of these teams are (at the very least, relatively) built to win now.

I agree. Just very thorough and transparent, which goes a long way for me. As much as Dave Cameron gets his due at Fangraphs; I like Sullivan's stuff more.

[TABLE=class: tablehead, width: 922] [TR=class: evenrow team-10-26, bgcolor: transparent] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1]Fri, May 23[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: left] @ San Francisco [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: right]10:15 PM[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: center][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1]Gibson (4-3)[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1]Lincecum (3-3)[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1, colspan: 2][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: oddrow team-10-26] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Sat, May 24[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: left] @ San Francisco [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]10:05 PM[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: center][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Nolasco (2-4)[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Vogelsong (2-2)[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: evenrow team-10-26, bgcolor: transparent] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1]Sun, May 25[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: left] @ San Francisco [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: right]4:05 PM[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: center][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1]Deduno (1-2)[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1]Bumgarner (5-3)[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1, colspan: 2][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: oddrow team-10-13] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Mon, May 26[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: left] vs Texas [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]2:10 PM[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: center][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Correia (2-5)[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Tepesch (1-0)[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: evenrow team-10-13, bgcolor: transparent] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1]Tue, May 27[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: left] vs Texas [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: right]8:10 PM[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: center][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1]Hughes (5-1)[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1]Darvish (3-2)[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1, colspan: 2][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: oddrow team-10-13] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Wed, May 28[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: left] vs Texas [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]8:10 PM[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: center][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Gibson (4-3)[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Baker (0-0)[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: evenrow team-10-13, bgcolor: transparent] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1]Thu, May 29[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: left] vs Texas [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: right]1:10 PM[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: center][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1]Nolasco (2-4)[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1]Martinez (0-1)[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1, colspan: 2][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: oddrow team-10-10] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Fri, May 30[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: left] @ NY Yankees [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]7:05 PM[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: center][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Deduno (1-2)[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Nuno (1-1)[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: evenrow team-10-10, bgcolor: transparent] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1]Sat, May 31[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: left] @ NY Yankees [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: right]1:05 PM[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: center][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1]Correia (2-5)[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1]Tanaka (6-1)[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1, colspan: 2][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: colhead, bgcolor: transparent] JUNE[TD=width: 20%]OPPONENT[/TD] [TD=width: 10%, align: right]TIME (ET)[/TD] [TD=width: 10%, align: center]TV[/TD] [TD=width: 14%]MIN PITCHER[/TD] [TD=width: 14%]OPP. PITCHER[/TD] [TD=width: 22%, colspan: 2][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: oddrow team-10-10] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Sun, Jun 1[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: left] @ NY Yankees [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]1:05 PM[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: center][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Hughes (5-1)[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: evenrow team-10-8, bgcolor: transparent] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1]Mon, Jun 2[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: left] @ Milwaukee [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: right]7:20 PM[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: center][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1]Gibson (4-3)[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1]Garza (2-4)[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1, colspan: 2][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: oddrow team-10-8] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Tue, Jun 3[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: left] @ Milwaukee [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]8:10 PM[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: center][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Nolasco (2-4)[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Estrada (3-2)[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: evenrow team-10-8, bgcolor: transparent] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1]Wed, Jun 4[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: left] vs Milwaukee [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: right]8:10 PM[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1, align: center][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #F1F1F1, colspan: 2][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: oddrow team-10-8] [TD=bgcolor: transparent]Thu, Jun 5[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: left] vs Milwaukee [/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: right]8:10 PM[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, align: center][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: transparent, colspan: 2][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

Colabello can be sent down, and I imagine Kubel could be DFA'd before you get rid of Fuld or KC.

Right. They just wanted innings out of these guys. It's too bad they can't even give them that.

Right. You can't judge a "build" when the foundation is still being laid. While I can't access the article, if it failed to note how the Twins traded outfield defense (Revere, Span) for strikeout pitching (Meyer, May), that would be a rather unforgivable oversight.

I went 4-0 against some light weights, after a few weeks of playing contenders. The Perez injury really hurts my rotation. My lineup continues to frustrate me. By summer, I'll figure out whether I want to buy or sell, we'll see.

Is it? For me, it's a symptom that league totals don't change over time. Of course, as one guy gets inexplicably better, another guy gets inexplicably worse; for me, the usefulness is in identifying who is who.

I think the debate is it's not very reasonable to expect a player to perform to a model limited by historical data and 'secret sauce' metrics. I think projections are a far more opaque tool (or lens) than simply looking at the historical data ourselves. If a glass hammer breaks, it's not user error.

Right. Prognosis models must demonstrate their worth in the aggregate (which as sums (or league totals) stay relatively the same year to year)--which means their models necessarily emphasize regression to the mean for nearly all players (both in terms of league averages and the player's career averages). They are fun to look at and tell you something about where league totals sit and about the biases of their authors but probably aren't practically useful for much.

Average is overrated in terms of giving a totalizing view of a player's worth. Discretely, Average is still a good (the best?) measure of a player's actual ability to hit major league pitching, which Hicks hasn't shown. If he continues to demonstrate that he can't hit the ball, pitchers will start pitching him more and more in the zone, and he'll stop walking. (A pitcher will only risk walking a batter, if the pitcher believes the guy can hit.) Hicks will either starting getting more hits, which would lead to a wider zone of pitches, and thereby more walks, or Hicks will show he can't and his OBP driven worth will evaporate.