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PseudoSABR

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Everything posted by PseudoSABR

  1. PseudoSABR
    There's plenty of reporting that the Twins don't think Kepler can handle ML pitching, despite what he's hitting at AA. Arcia and (soon) Hicks are better options for reasonable depth. Berrios just pitched today; it's not clear that the Twins won't call him up. Even if they elect to not bring him up, there is some organizational strikes against a call up: youth/professional inexperience, hence an inning threshold; he's not on the forty man roster; and there's no clear-cut pitcher to replace (Pelfrey and Milone are mediocre, but that they need replacement is not clear-cut) (I like this reason least, because all the pitchers are mediocre, and Berrios is bound to be better than one of them--which one?). All that said, if Berrios is showing no signs of fatigue, and penchant for ML dominance, bring the dude up.
  2. PseudoSABR
    Right, no Arcia. Thou has earned disfavor.
  3. PseudoSABR
    Santana and Vargas provide depth and promise right away. Glad there was no lingering front office displeasure that kept either down.
  4. PseudoSABR
    I like seeing Perkins here.
  5. PseudoSABR
    Couldn't your definition of sunk cost be applied to any contract for which the paying party is liable? When posters refer to players and their contracts (future or not) as 'sunk costs,' the lack of return on those costs is the operative factor, not the mere liability for those costs. It's great that you have credentials and that you're very certain about usage in your industry but I imagine there are more tactful ways of demonstrating the validity of your point. The point should be that 'sunk cost' is used colloquially in all kinds of discourse without adhering to its technical usage (which probably varies industry to industry). Trying to establish the upper hand in semantics seems unnecessary.
  6. PseudoSABR
    I always took the use of 'sunk cost' in regard to players that have yet to be paid their money as a metaphorical pejorative--not as an economic classification.
  7. PseudoSABR
    Ricky Nolasco extension.
  8. PseudoSABR
    Again, the standings tell me all that. I don't see how Playoff Probability really aids my understanding.
  9. PseudoSABR
    If the underlying assumptions about the Twins (bad, especially bad on the road) and O's (good, especially good at home) aren't affected by the sweep, any good forecast shouldn't be affected by such 'variation' even if it occurred in a group of four--a sound forecast would tend to suggest both teams will make up for/or have already made up for that variance. As you assert in your last paragraph, looking at games-back provides the same kind of swing that playoff probability does--which suggests that the probability isn't any more probabilistic than the standings. I just don't see a lot of utility of it, and because it presents itself as a probability, it's certainly dressing itself up like it's more useful than looking at the standings.
  10. PseudoSABR
    Here's the assumption of accuracy. If eyeballing is merely vague--this forecast must be less-vague, hence more accurate. (And of course that they call it Playoff Probability certainly suggests that it's forecasting with accuracy; it's why they choice to represent their calculation as a percentage instead of a whole number.) I actually think looking at the standings provides me with better information about the credibility of the Twins' playoff hopes than does a well-conceived* metric that reduces those odds to a percentage. As Chief suggests, if they're not meaningful enough to bet money on, they're probably not very meaningful.
  11. PseudoSABR
    This.
  12. PseudoSABR
    Beating a mediocre O's team on the road a few times shouldn't multiply the odds of a playoff contender so late in the season. This isn't April and any team within five games of a playoff spot shouldn't see their probability swing so wildly if that probability is an accurate forecaster. The playoff chance thing is a glib analysis of how many wins do they have now and how many wins do my favorite statistics suggest they should have. The fact that the odds change so much indicates that its dependent on wins and losses--which doesn't tantalize my higher brain functions all that much. I can already look at their win and loss record in comparison to other competitive teams--they call that the Wild Card Standings.
  13. PseudoSABR
    Put another way, the Twins doubled (more than that?) their chance of the playoffs in mere days.
  14. PseudoSABR
    If the playoff probability swings so wildly from game to game, it means that probability really isn't forecasting with any accuracy. These playoff percentages are the stupid.
  15. PseudoSABR
    Maybe I did miss that, but you also called minimum wage extreme socialism--the minimum wage, I believe, is a mix between the two. Maybe not to your preference, but the notion is not extreme. That said, a mix is appropriate. Some industries are perverted by capitalism, and should be run publicly even if "inefficiently," or for a non-profit end. It might be good for humanity to have more than few industries run at break-even/a loss. And the gov't, largely, has no business in the trade of goods.
  16. PseudoSABR
    Okay, we should probably end shareholding, limited liability granted to corporations, and government inducements to invest if we really care about 'not interfering' in the market. The investment side has plenty of non-market advantages that are not found in the actual market that pervert their share of wealth. The reality is that employers and employees don't have equal bargaining power to negotiate market wages. Minimum wage standard is a way to address that problem without unions. Minimum wage is hardly an extreme end of socialism, given that the solution concedes a largely capitalistic market. Part-time workers is a similar side of the same coin. I'm not sure why you would think that the employers/employees should be able to negotiate a low a wage, but not low hours. Honestly, I'd love to mandate a shorter full-time work week, and be willing to add subsidies to grandfather in businesses that show need.
  17. PseudoSABR
    If small businesses need to raise prices to maintain their desired profitability rather than absorb the losses they should do so. Minimum wage workers are 100% liquid, so whatever the minimum is raised by would go right into the whole economy, enabling the market to absorb a price increase. That said, whatever the minimum wage should be, it should be implemented small increases over a period of time to enable businesses to survive the wage increase. There should be NO emphasis to keep wages low so ANY business owners can maintain their desired level of profitability, nor should the taxpayers subsidize a business's profitability by government assistance programs to their underpaid workers. If such owners want to get out of the business, let them. The magic market force should supply new owners to develop business models that can sustain businesses at whatever wage. Unless we don't really believe in the magic market force...
  18. PseudoSABR
    The notion that we should just accept what owners and shareholders dictate reminds me of something I learned in college once. I say raise prices, and let these owners get out of the business if they won't eat the cost and the rest of us find someone who will do the work at a nonmonopoly price. Isn't that how the market should work?
  19. PseudoSABR
    For weeks, I haven't been able to stomach watching the Twins play. But I do pay attention to game day (out of perverse curiosity, surely); and moments like this make me glad I pay enough cursory attention to flip on MLB.tv . I only have to watch the watchable moment to get all the warm fuzzies.
  20. PseudoSABR
    Sure, but even his putrid second half .663 OPS doesn't necessarily demonstrate that he's isn't worth at least bench role on that 25 man roster.
  21. PseudoSABR
    Whatever decline the "slash line" might show is BABIP related. His, first half BABIP declined by .50 points from 2014, and his second half by more than .100 points. Again, the slugging and walk rate are right at his previous levels of production. I swore I mentioned BABIP in my previous post...
  22. PseudoSABR
    Just curious, does Twins Daily group think really dismiss organizational values such as leadership and loyalty completely out of hand? Of course, there's a point where such values have diminishing returns, but are we so obviously beyond that threshold with Hunter? (I feel the need to note that baseball players are not statistical output machines, they are people who require something more than fuel to maximize their abilities).
  23. PseudoSABR
    So you're using either a month's worth or six weeks worth of at bats to declare him dead? Well he's OPSing over 1.100 the past seven days! Resurrected, by Jesus. Since, the break his BABIP has fallen by .65 points, while his walk rate and slugging percentage have remained about the same as the first half. (Source) So that cliff looks more BABIP related than ability related. We may be witnessing the inevitable decline, and we'll have more than 100 at bats to assess that at the season's end. The Twins should not consider resigning Hunter until the offseason.
  24. PseudoSABR
    Molitor needs to rise above veteran expectation and play the productive player. Right now, that is Hunter. Next year, it might not be. While a complete decline is inevitable for Hunter, we've (Twins fandom) been wrong about it for many years and counting. I think if Plouffe gets traded; there might be enough at bats for everyone, including one of Arcia/Vargas...
  25. PseudoSABR
    I think it's a forgone conclusion. I hope he accepts a role as bench bat/part-time player. He's arguably been one of their most productive hitters, and given his roots here, I don't think it's realistic to simply let him walk after he came back to retire here.
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