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PseudoSABR

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Everything posted by PseudoSABR

  1. PseudoSABR
    Well, the Republicans are at least taking advantage of the situation with this fundraising letter.
  2. PseudoSABR
    Bleh. 1) You're including the signing bonus to make that work and ignoring the team control of the players. 2) Bastardo and Lowe combined for 112 innings last year. 3) It would have been a mistake to count on (yet again) Arcia/Vargas. Can we all just stop using the word "clearly." These are opinions, not facts.
  3. PseudoSABR
    Sure. But that's not screaming playoffs. Look, it's perfectly reasonable to believe the Twins could be in contention this season. I don't see anyone saying anything more than that.
  4. PseudoSABR
    The Twins won 83 games. Even 83 games doesn't scream playoffs. I won't speak for anyone else. For my part, the Twins did play over their heads, but given their youth their talent level was probably within in a couple games of that record. Also given their youth, even if they made no moves, it's fair to expect the team to improve; if the moves that they did make (Murphy/Park) work out, they very well could be a better team next year.
  5. PseudoSABR
    1) No one's saying that the roster 'screams' playoffs. 2) Everyone seems to have a different standard for what an honest evaluation actually is.
  6. PseudoSABR
    As I said above, I think the Twins anticipated the market to bounce back to previous years prices as the market thinned out, but that didn't seem to happen. This is might be the going rate going forward, but if it is, we can understand why they reassessed their priorities and choose to rely on building the bullpen from within. That said, I think having an elite bullpen is a boon, but these are players who are pitching 70 innings a year, and might be underexposed relative to their actual talent. I tend to think such players make more a difference in the playoffs, and if the Twins are in contention they'll have the resources to acquire such a pitcher if the internal option prove ineffective.
  7. PseudoSABR
    My contention is the FA reliever market was inflated relative to the market for other players and relative to the previous years' FA reliever markets.
  8. PseudoSABR
    Are you really suggesting there's no inflation in this years reliever market as compared to previous years? I can't find an statistical analysis of the question, but my feeling is that relievers saw a higher pay increase relative to other positions.
  9. PseudoSABR
    1) The Twins didn't purposely do nothing. 2) They didn't participate in a market that was inflated, a market for players who contribute 70 innings. If not participating in an inflated market warrants a horrible offseason grade; I'm glad I'm not enrolled in your class.
  10. PseudoSABR
    Clearly, KC's success influenced the market conditions, and I'm not saying this is dispositive but the statistical projection systems don't seem to like their approach. Given what the Twins have in the minors, they decided to wait the market out; that strategy may not have worked out as late signees (Clippard/Bastardo) were getting more 6 million a year, but I think it was prudent risk none the less.
  11. PseudoSABR
    Perhaps blow up was too strong of a phrase, but I think all those guys are overpaid (perhaps with the exception of Lowe) when compared to previous years markets for similar players and their value added to the team. Tom Verducci penned an article in December noting the phenomenon I'm talking about.
  12. PseudoSABR
    It was foolish of them to publicly suggest bullpen was a priority. They made that statement before the market for relievers blew up, and I'm sure reassessed their priorities--which is what smart organizations should do Again, I'm thankful the Twins didn't overpay for a reliever in FA or in trade. I can't blame them for thinking there wasn't as much value in the reliever market this year.
  13. PseudoSABR
    Come on, you have no idea whether the Twins explored contracts with any of those pitchers. This notion that the Twins are twiddling their thumbs all offseason needs to be put to bed. The Twins are typically tight-lipped about this sort of stuff and when there is a report about the Twins showing interest in a player, the same collection of posters say "well the Twins are reportedly interested in everybody, but we know nothing will happen."
  14. PseudoSABR
    That's probably an oversimplification of what actually happened. We don't know Lowe's reasons for choosing Detroit, and we don't the Twins evaluation of Lowe. Lowe was a bargain compared to what many other similar and worse relievers received, so it's a bit unfair to judge the Twins against that.
  15. PseudoSABR
    Even that frames it unfairly. If Park merely reproduces the 2015 DH production, the move is a net win if Sano plays Hunter-esque defense in RF. Sano probably wasn't going to play at DH regardless of the Park signing. Retaining Plouffe and adding Parks allows the Twins to not rely on Vargas and Arcia, which is probably a good thing, and they are there to provide depth if Parks doesn't work out.
  16. PseudoSABR
    The notion that the D is not underserved seems to suggest either Lowe (or the like) is the difference between a D- and a high grade, or the highest the grade the Twins could have received if they had taken advantage of such opportunities isn't high at all. For critics like Cwik there's a built in bias towards teams relying on player development (as opposed to player acquisition) to improve -- there's an unstated assumption that none of the big deals handed out won't turn out to be albatrosses that preclude the team using resources to address needs should they arise. There's simply no effort to balance cost, risk against potential gains. Didn't the Padres and the Whitesox win the last offseason? Everyone loves the Cubs offseason, but Heyward might be awful in centerfield, and Zobrist and Lackey could age very poorly.
  17. PseudoSABR
    To put to bed the conspiracy theory: “Our family just has no doubt that he was taken from us by natural causes,” Eugene Scalia said on the conservative Laura Ingraham radio show. "We’re praying for him. We ask others to accept that and pray for him.” (emphasis mine)
  18. PseudoSABR
    Take out the word "clear" and I think we can resolve the disagreement. I also think people, not necessarily you Levi*, are framing the discussion so the Twins look poor. If the question is are Twins heading into 2016 likely to outproduce their 2015 production at RF and DH - then the answer is probably yes. *Though its probably not fair to not include non-Sano at-bats at DH if you're going to include Hunter in this equation. That the Twins should improve by having a full season of Sano shouldn't hurt the evaluation of their offseason.
  19. PseudoSABR
    I did like the Lowe deal comparatively to what other relievers received. But we're talking about the third guy in the bullpen (even if he's on par with Jepsen and Perkins, that's essentially how it play out) and Lowe would be a tremendous upgrade to Fien certainly, but this can't be the sort of missed opportunity that pushes the Twins offseason to an obvious and abysmal failure. My point is that what we'd have them actually do would in fact be incremental towards their success.
  20. PseudoSABR
    Well, what should we have done? What opportunities are talking about?
  21. PseudoSABR
    I'm tired of reading these kind of statements. Even if you set out to address an area of need, you don't overpay to do it. I'm glad the Twins stayed out of the inflated reliever market this offseason.
  22. PseudoSABR
    The Twins made all their moves in the first week of the offseason. Articles written now will punish them for that. I am surprised the Twins haven't gotten some credit for pursuing players that might be undervalued in Murphy and Parks. If either turns into an average starter, the Twins deserve more than D. If both turn out to be plus players, that's an incredible boon, given how little each cost, and how much team control remains.
  23. PseudoSABR
    What's especially Ironic about Kasich's proposed agency of Christian Values is that it flies in the face of both limited government and conservative notions of federalism/state-rights (where the conservative argument is that values and social welfare should be decided locally not federally).
  24. PseudoSABR
    Unless those are the players who end up injured. The Twins are in a far better position to deal with injuries than the Whitesox because their success isn't buttressed by star power (outside Sano).
  25. PseudoSABR
    Here's an accounting by SCOTUSblog of supreme court nominees in election years for those interested.
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