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Vervehound

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Everything posted by Vervehound

  1. Vervehound
    Gibson, Berrios. Dunno. Berrios needs another pitch and Gibson needs to get back to where he was before the injury before I'd project them as #2s. Both have good upside, though. Berrios' upside could be huge while Gibson is more of a sure thing without as high a ceiling. a number two, according to the standard scouting definition espoused by b.a., is a guy with two plus pitches, an average third pitch and average to plus command. berrios' fastball is right now a borderline 70 (plus plus) and his slider is a 60 (plus) and he's shown a knack for pounding the strikezone and changing speeds. he's at least a no.2 ceiling guy, imo. the only thing he doesn't have going for him is his build.
  2. Vervehound
    You're ready to give up on a draft class that is one year old?? I wasn't high on Michael, and definitely not a Grimes guy, but there is no reason to give up on Williams, Boer and Summers yet, and certainly WAY too early to give up on Boyd and Harrison. And, let's see how Gibson does, and how Wimmers returns next year midseason before completely giving up on ALL college pitchers drafted since 2005. i wouldn't say i'm ready to give up on it at all - but you had picks 30, 50 and 55 and it none of the guys you picked look like standouts a year later. as for the college arms - summers has pitched decently and has a nice arm, but he hasn't missed bats at all and i doubt he makes it as a starter so you succeeded in picking three potential middle relievers. not what this system needs. i have the most hope for our first three picks and understand that harrison's approach is much more geared towards line drives than moonshots, but i don't think this is an impressive haul by any means. that said, i do like our later round southpaws from last year - particularly montanez, lee and malinowski.
  3. Vervehound
    i don't expect arcia to get called up next year till june, which would allow the twins to avoid any potential super two status and give them an extra season of oswaldo under control.
  4. Vervehound
    the fact is, rotations rarely go according to plan. even the braves have had their best laid plans fall to pieces with guys like minor and jurrjens not panning out and teheran regressing. the organizations with most pitching still have to cobble together pieces of their rotation and the twins will be little different. that list is underwhelming, but if diamond can become a solid back end optin and gibson and hendriks come through, you'll feel a lot better about this team a year from now. not to mention that hopefully the blackburn experiment will be at an end and you have classic addition by subtraction. the real struggle for this organization has been its abysmal track record of drafting college arms post-2005 draft. 2011 was a deep, deep draft and the twins haul of michael, boyd, harrison, boer, williams, summers and grimes in the top five rounds looks horrible a year later. that was a blown draft and the preceding drafts were not a lot better. perhaps the real issue here is the scouting department?
  5. Vervehound
    15K/9 so far, but the naysayers keep screaming: "Low Ceiling!" I hope they're proven wrong. As in the above quote, wha't not to like how he's handling himself so far? i don't think anyone is saying he has a low ceiling, just that there's not a lot of projection on the frame. two different things. berrios has no.2 starter potetntial.
  6. Vervehound
    had a second to think about it and the other two prospects that really stand out are angel mata and chris herrmann. herrmann is a borderline m.l. regular with an underrated skillset. and mata...that fastball is electric. after berrios, he might have the best arm in the system (jorge is also in the running), but, coming into the season he had nothing to go along with it.
  7. Vervehound
    If they convert Zack Jones to a starter successfully and he continues to develop a solid third pitch, I bet you'll change that. He is actually one of the 3-4 Twins' pitchers with higher upside than Gibson. at this point, i think jones might be the third best prospect from this draft after buck and berrios. i think the 6-7-8 prospects in the system right now are gibson, berrios and kepler, in whatever order, and then it's a free-for-all after that, though i'd probably put harrison at 9. arcia is a better prospect than hicks, imo. i'd even rate rosario ahead of hicks based on track record. hicks' defense at a premium position will enhance his argument but i see both arcia and rosario being middle-of-the-order types whose bats will play at whatever level. their innate ability to barrel the ball leads me to believe they'll be in target field shortly. two guys that deserve a mention are polanco and santana. both intriguing guys who i'd take ahead of the college misfit arms we picked this year. relief prospects should be discounted accordingly, but i love what tonkin has done this year and think he might be just hitting his stride.
  8. Vervehound
    walker is getting way too much love. he was a nice 3rd rounder in that he has m.l. ready power but he was picked in the third round because he needs to work on the rest of his game and he hasn't shown anything so far. you could foresee him hitting 16 or so bombs in e-town by accident - he hasn't proven anything yet. reminds me of a corey vaughn type.
  9. Vervehound
    yes, and the extreme dearth of talent in their organization has probably led to some people being in positions they shouldn't be. think pat meares and les straker. the white sox are an abysmal organization for developing talent and tend to parallel the tigers in the hopes of pinning everything on their top choices.
  10. Vervehound
    really good underrated point - if you're going to give up upside, try to get upside back. one reclamation project for another.
  11. Vervehound
    not sure where the kubel comps are coming from but....kubel never had speed and his range in an OF corner was fringey before his knee injury, though his arm always drew compliments. also, he never played cf in the lower minors like arcia did and i think arcia's power will top out at a full grade higher (65 to 55 for kubel). they're both lefties who can hit but arcia profiles better defensively.
  12. Vervehound
    very high on berrios - one of the top arms in the system without much doubt, though the frame is of some concern. it's hard to think of an example of a twins pitcher that has spent their age 19 season in low-a so i think your statement is incorrect - everyone seems to be going through e-town these days (think boyd and mata on this year's team and salcedo a couple years ago). that said, the twins haven't used many high picks on prep arms in recent years so the sample size is small. at any rate, berrios is good enough that he could forge his own path.
  13. Vervehound
    what tools does hicks have besides an 80 arm? his hit tool is a 50 at best and that's being generous with this year in mind. power...50? 55 at best. speed. 60. defense....another 60. that's a good player considering he's a cf'er but arcia's tools are comparable. hit: 65. power: 60. defense: 50. arm: 55. speed: 50. considering our system's challenges in producing middle of the order bats, i'll take arcia's skillset.
  14. Vervehound
    not a prospect....
  15. Vervehound
    cingrani would become our best pitching prospect right away but...stephenson has one of the best arms in the minors - he's flashing triple digits fairly regularly. i was hoping we could somehow pry syndergaard loose from the jays but stephenson would be a grade A plan B.
  16. Vervehound
    yes - i remember you siding with arcia. you can make the argument for arcia, but collective prospect wisdom will have him easily behind sano and buxton. re: sano - it's not just the power - look at the number of walks so far this year. that's a huge development in his favour. anyway, i'm thinking both arcia and rosario will show up half way into the top 50-100 prospects this year and hicks has a shot to sneak in as well if he can keep it together.
  17. Vervehound
    gibbons has a monster frame so he's pretty projectable. thorpe did sign for 500k - second highest int'l bonus the twins doled out this year. i think much of our future on the mound is sitting in the gcl this year - there are a lot of arms with lift to them down there and next year's team should include thorpe, gonzalez and silva at a minimum - not a bad start.
  18. Vervehound
    btw, the real question is this: who's the number six prospect in the system? the top five are pretty easy to figure out, and then comes the void. i'd say no to either benson or gibson and look to either kepler or berrios right now. harrison would also be in play.
  19. Vervehound
    you've got the right guys in your top five, but arcia is going to be the third ranked prospect in this system because he doesn't have any 80 tools like sano or buxton. i was one of two byto'ers to rank arcia our second best prospect coming into the season and i think that's been vindicated. as for a comp, he's got lefty magglio ordonez upside. bobby abreu has been mentioned before when it comes to him, but that's more in relation to his load/swing. btw, what do you know about our two new aussie arms: sam gibbons and louis thorpe? both look like nice prospects. one day, i'm hopeful we'll have an all aussie rotation at target field....
  20. Vervehound
    and his name would be pronounced how? shar-gwah?
  21. Vervehound
    most kids aren't striking out in front of 30k people and having to answer for it in the court of public opinion. not to mention that ballplayers have shown that they're in the elite 0.01% of humanity in terms of hand-eye coordination. i get that being a ballplayer could be a really fun career but it's also super hard for all but a half dozen players so the argument of it being a "kid's sport" is lazy, imo.
  22. Vervehound
    = 111 losses btw, the beej, bj hermsen is going to see innings in 2013 whether you like it or not.
  23. Vervehound
    heh heh
  24. Vervehound
    one of the problematic things with your argument(s) is that you're not doing a very good job of conceptualizing the odds. even if the twins were interested in spending $25 million on a couple of free agent starters this year, there is no guarantee that they'd be able to lure them, not to mention a guy like dempster (who will be 36 y.o. , btw). are you going to keep your franchise from moving on and building assets for a small chance to land two quailty pitchers, one who will likely be on a steep production decline, and will still only give you two/fifths of a quality rotation? sounds like a bill smith move. the better value is clearly building with young talent whose better years are ahead of them and afford salary flexibility. i appreciate your optimism and you can be all in and compete every year - it's possible, but not unless your pipeline is full in the minors and ours isn't.
  25. Vervehound
    how? what's your rotation going to be in 2014? the only way you're going to be competitive by then is by bringing a bunch of high minor arms into the system this year (which is unrealistic - quality arms in the high minors would fetch a premium. wheeler wouldn't have even qualified as such last year) and don't say free agency! we have exactly one arm in our system right now who i'm more than 50% assured will be in our rotation that year and he's busy dominating for the red wings right now.
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