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markos

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  1. markos
    Another datapoint regarding Plouffe's trade value: the Angels just aquired Yunel Escobar from the Nationals for Trevor Gott. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/12/nationals-trade-yunel-escobar-angels.html
  2. markos
    I really like the framework you put together here. I'd like to add another layer. (But first, you forgot to add Pomeranz's salary over the next three seasons. Not big, but he is in arbitration, so it will probably be $7M ($1.5M, $2.5M, $3.5M) over the next three seasons. So the salary difference is ~$60M total.) Putting in some (perhaps rosy) performance projections (as WAR) on these players, one ends up with: (Shields + Upton + Pomeranz) - (Plouffe + Nolasco) 2016 - (3 + 0.5 + 0.5) - (2.5 + 0.5) = 1 WAR 2017 - (2.5 + 0.5 + 0.5) - (2 + 0.5) = 1 WAR 2018 - (2 + 0.5) = 1 WAR TWINS GAIN 3 WAR You can quibble with the exact numbers, but it seems likely that the Twins will end up ahead by somewhere in the 2-4 WAR range. So in your trade, the Twins are gaining ~3 WAR but also spending an additional $60M. That isn't a very good deal. In order to even things out, instead of including Polanco in the trade, the Padres should include a prospect or two. Perhaps their version of a Jorge Polanco and maybe a Felix Jorge.
  3. markos
    It sure must be nice to be able to speed up a rebuild by acquiring a seconds team's farm system to augment your own.
  4. markos
    I mostly agree with you, which is why I found it so surprising that Shields passed through waivers unclaimed this past August. Granted, the August market is a little weird as most teams are really looking at their futures. But still, at that point nobody was willing to take him (and his salary) for essentially nothing.
  5. markos
    I would definitely try Turner in the bullpen.
  6. markos
    Chris Mitchell released his top-100 prospects based on his KATOH projection system. The Twins have 5 names on the list, including the #1 prospect... but not the usual #1 prospect from the Twins system. Congratulations Mr. Kepler! 1) Kepler 18) Berrios 47) Buxton 82) Gordon 89) Polanco http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katohs-top-100-prospect-list-for-2016/
  7. markos
    That is a fair complaint, and definitely one that I'm not capable of judging - I certainly don't have any in-depth knowledge of Atlanta's farm system. From my ignorant outsider perspective, it appeared that Farnsworth put his neck out on a couple of no-name pitchers, which is something I generally applaud. Identifying which marginal minor league pitchers have the right combination of skills to actually be effective in the majors is something that many prospect analysts punt on (Sickels might be the best at trying to identify that kind of sleeper), and something that might be the "next frontier" of prospect analysis.
  8. markos
    The difference between different and off base mostly depends on the future results, right? Imagine if last year someone had ranked the Twins pitching prospects in the following order: 1) Duffey 2) Berrios 3) May 4) Rogers 5) Gonsalves 6) Meyer 7) Stewart 8) Thorpe That list would have been ridiculed and no one would have taken it seriously. But now a year later, that list matches up with the real world results pretty well. Certainly no worse than a more traditional ranking - last year Kiley mentioned 40+ names in his Twins evaluation and didn't mention Duffey at all. (That's not a jab at Kiley - I think he did a great job, and I definitely think Fangraphs is going to miss him - but just an example.) Again, it comes back to accountability. Since every analyst is basically the same, there is no reason to go back and compare them, or even take the time and effort to try to come up with a systematic method for comparing lists over time. But Farnsworth's list is very different, which is annoying because we will need to come back next year and the year after to check and see if his "off base" list was actually valuable. Anyway, it will be interesting to see how the rest of his lists go. I'm guessing he will take extra care to make sure he includes everyone.
  9. markos
    I actually liked Farnworth's list, just because it is so different. Some commenters acted like it was the worst thing ever, but I respect analysts that go by the beat of their own drum. I feel like there is a lot of groupthink with prospect lists between the various sites. I also think that the prospect industry in general suffers from a lack of accountability. They are all very good at collecting and disseminating information, but there is no metric used to compare and contrast the various analysts' picks with the actual real-world results. Maybe Sickels is consistently really good compared to everyone else. Maybe he isn't. Does anyone care? Apparently not.
  10. markos
    Would you make Buxton available for him? If not, would your calculation change if Hicks was still on the roster? Personally, I wouldn't trade Buxton, Berrios or Gordon for him, mostly because I don't think that the Twins' best window is 2016-2018. Like nytwinsfan just said, I also think this core will probably peak later.
  11. markos
    I'm not sure about Michael either. I think he fits the archetype of a player who might be selected, as he: 1) Fits the utility infield role, as he probably won't kill you if he started once or twice a week at any of the three infield positions, especially if you match him up against a lefty. 2) Switch-hits, and seems to have decent walk/strikeout rates. 3) Isn't good enough that you would care if you ruined his development by having him mostly rot on the bench as a 25-man. 4) But if you squint hard you can see the potential upside of an everyday player in the future. But I don't really have any idea how many other players will be available that fit that same pattern. From the list that jsteve96 posted, Nolan Fontana is clearly a much better option. Are there going to be a dozen middle-infielders available that are better than Michael? Or only one? That should factor into whether or not a player is protected or not.
  12. markos
    I'm a little surprised Brian Dozier's second half collapse didn't make the list. Perkins had the more dramatic collapse, but he only pitched 20 innings. Dozier played almost every game, batted at the top of the lineup, and had only a .642 OPS (and .275 OBP!) from July 1st on.
  13. markos
    The phrase "give up on" is a bit loaded, but I do think that the Twins undervalued Hicks a little bit and traded him away too early. In general, I think that there are enough examples of players figuring hitting out in their mid-to-late twenties that it is good policy to try to hang onto high-ceiling players through age-28. Especially players that seem to be just a half step away from putting it all together. And Hicks is kind of in that boat. He just needs to hit RHP just a little bit better and he becomes an everyday player. If he takes a big step forward against RHP, and adds a little more power like most players do in their late-20s, then he is a real asset. To put Hicks and his struggles into perspective: 1) Torii Hunter two months into age-25 season: 1000 MLB PAs, OPS+ <75 2) David Ortiz after age-25 season: 1200 MLB PAs, OPS+ 103 3) Carlos Gomez after age-25 season: 1700 MLB PAs, OPS+ 73 4) Lorenzo Cain after age-25 season: just 181 MLB PAs, OPS+ 101 - spent most of year in AAA 5) Aaron Hicks after age-25 season: 928 MLB PAs, OPS+ 80
  14. markos
    It is hard for me to respond to this without letting my emotions get in the way. The Nats have been my #2 team since I moved to DC a few years back, and I've watched a couple heart-wrenching playoff meltdowns with Storen on the mound. So take all this with a grain of salt... 1) Storen is a good reliever but not great - think Kelvin Herrera rather than Wade Davis. I think a healthy Perkins is the better reliever. He is very similar to Jepsen. 2) In addition to his famous playoff blowups, Storen's full body of work seems to indicate that he has some struggles in high-leverage situations. I think it was Joe Posnanski who pointed out that his walks go up and his strikeouts go down in high-leverage situations. 3) From above and my own experience, I think he does better when he is able to start an inning clean. I get nervous when he comes in to try to get out of trouble. Despite all that (and provided the trade price isn't very high) I would much rather have Storen for 1yr/$9M than have to sign an equivalently talented reliever for multiple years. But expectations need to be managed with him. He isn't a reliever that will transform the Twins bullpen into one of the elite units in the league. In my opinion he would be the third best option behind both Perkins and Jepsen. But he will make it deeper and better than what it has been. I have zero interest in Papelbon.
  15. markos
    I don't think he was on any of the main analyst-based prospect lists, but he was on the ZIPS projection AND Chris Mitchell's (Fangraphs) KATOH projection as being top-100. Something in his profile makes projection systems really like him. I'm guessing they like that he was young for his age but an average-to-above-average hitter and that did a really good job of controlling the strike zone during his time in the minors.
  16. markos
    I agree that his BABIP is unsustainable. However, I hope that with regular playing time and more experience he will decrease his strikeouts and increase his walks, which should negate the BABIP regression.
  17. markos
    A few more thoughts: 1) For those saying that Hicks only had one good month, it is worth pointing out that his struggles in August and September were mostly due to a very low BABIP - just .245. His rate stats and batted ball stats were solid during those months. If he was less unlucky and closer to his career norm, his overall line for those two months is probably close to a .730-.750 OPS. 2) Someone pointed out Murphy's home/away splits. Ouch. Hard to know how much that matters because the sample size is pretty small, but still... 3) Despite all of the warning signs in Murphy's numbers (high BABIP, huge home/away splits, etc), he was a backup all season, and generally speaking a batter's hitting takes a pretty big hit when not playing everyday. If he is the starting catcher going forward, it certainly seems likely that his numbers might have a small uptick, or at least counteract all the warning signs. 4) Also, Murphy was basically league-average or better throughout his minor league career despite being promoted rather aggressively - he was promoted to AA at age 21. That is always a good sign. It is funny - the more I look into these players, the more I like them both going forward.
  18. markos
    Here are some random thoughts: (apologize if these have already been brought up, but this thread is updating fast...) 1) I don't like trading Hicks just because there is a lot of upside yet. So many hitters figure it out in their late 20s, and he has enough tools to turn into a special player. 2) That said, he has had almost 1000 PAs in the majors and hasn't shown much yet. 3) JR Murphy has a .350 BABIP in his career so far. So take his current performance with a grain of salt. 4) He doesn't have pull power - all of his homers last year (there were only 3) were to left-center or opposite field. Is that power going to play in Target Field? Here is his spray chart from the past two season: http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=10346&position=C&type=battedball&pid2=10346&ss1=2014&se1=2014&ss2=2015&se2=2015&cht1=hittype&cht2=hittype&vs1=ALL&vs2=ALL 5) Kiley McDaniel and Chris Mitchell both liked him as a prospect/rookie last year: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/under-the-radar-rookie-hitters-on-contending-teams/ http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-prospects-new-york-yankees/ Mitchell mentioned that based on his projection system Murphy should have been a borderline top-100 prospect. 6) Baseball Prospectus ranked him as an average framer but below average at blocking pitches. Overall, I can see this trade going a lot of ways. Judging it right now, I think I'm a little disappointed, as my gut thinks that Hicks is going to take a big step forward at the plate in the next couple of seasons.
  19. markos
    The Brewers sent Ryan Braun to the outfield at age 24 after playing his entire career at 3rd base. He went on to make the All Star game, finished 3rd in MVP voting, and the Brewers won 90 games and won the Wildcard. The Marlins had Miguel Cabrera play 3 games in the outfield in AA before calling him up at age 20. He played the rest of the season in the outfield and helped the Marlins win the World Series. Further, the Twins have shown for years now that they don't value plus defense at corner outfield positions (Stewart, Kubel, Cuddyer, Young, Willingham). I don't think it is absurd at all that they would consider moving Sano in the outfield.
  20. markos
    The main 3B filter on Fangraphs combines the total stats for everyone who played at 3B. So in the Twins' case, the 3.6 WAR is spread over the 830+ PAs that Plouffe and Nunez had last year, even though most of Nunez's PAs were at SS. If you use the 3B Split instead, it tallies the stats for the players only when playing 3B. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2015&month=39&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
  21. markos
    The demand side is the problem. Third-base is absolutely stacked right now, and 14 teams were able to get 3+ WAR production, and an additional 7 teams got 2+ WAR. So for the majority of teams, Plouffe represents basically a lateral move at best. For example, does it really make sense for the Padres to upgrade from a 2 WAR Solarte who is making peanuts to a 2.5 WAR Plouffe? And though Plouffe is cost-controlled, he isn't necessarily cheap - he will probably make ~$20M over the next two seasons in arbitration. It is unfortunate that right now the teams with 3B needs are either rebuilding, have a young or expensive incumbent, or are in the division.
  22. markos
    Two thoughts: 1) I don't think the Braves and Brewers are in the market for Plouffe. They both seems to be in the middle of rebuilding, and they are probably more interested in acquiring and keeping young, cheap players rather than giving them up to acquire a player like Plouffe. 2) I'm surprised you didn't mention the Angels. They are have hole (Freese is leaving in free agency) and are in a win-now mode. They have a potential internal replacement in Kyle Kubitza, but Plouffe seems like the kind of player the Angels would be interested in (veteran, good defense).
  23. markos
    Yep. BA had him ranked #4 overall and 2nd best pitcher behind Strasburg two weeks before the draft. 11.2 K/9, 6.1 K/BB. But a week before the draft he was shut down due to a stress fracture in his arm. http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/09draft.html http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/majors/organization-reports/minnesota-twins/2009/268349.html
  24. markos
    I think that framework might gain some traction with a three-way trade. I don't think the Brewers have any interest in Plouffe themselves, but if you could get some other team to join the trade, then maybe it would work. Twins get Lucroy Team X gets Plouffe Brewers get prospects from Twins and Team X. I still think the Brewers are going to want (and probably get) at least 1 top-50 prospect in return for Lucroy.
  25. markos
    I think Harrison is ranked a little high, but not outrageously so. He has been an above-average hitter at every level despite being young for his age at each stop and not hitting for much power. He takes walks and doesn't strike out too much. By all accounts he is a big, strong kid, so there is the potential for future power growth. And it certainly isn't unheard of for a player to get have a power spike in his mid-to-late twenties. Right now he doesn't profile like a corner-outfielder, but it wouldn't be shocking if he started hitting 20 or more homers a season at age 26 or 27.
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