70charger
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Everything posted by 70charger
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Yeah, yeah, yeah. The Twins suck. Why are you here?
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Is the Affiliation Dance about to begin?
70charger replied to Jim Crikket's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Thanks. I'm going to go check out the book again to see if it's worth the money. It could be, but my book queue is so long.... -
I don't know that you can extrapolate that from one year. Who was behind Butera at that point that was a better option? Mauer had bilateral testicle weakness or whatever it was, and the Wilson Ramos trade took place in 2010. What, pray tell, were the 2011 options that Gardenhire so stupidly passed over in favor of Butera? Or perhaps it's possible that Butera was a guy who was marginally ready for the big leagues and was thrust into the role because of lack of options in the system. And if so, maybe we shouldn't judge him solely on his 2011 stats?
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Never? This is Twins Daily, not Royals Daily.
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Now, this I get. His numbers at bat last year were worthy of a Greek tragedy. That said, he was a rookie, and his game was never offensively oriented to begin with. I think he probably took some lumps last year but will end up being better. Maybe not .650, but certainly not .450. I think he'll probably normalize some 10-20 points over the Mendoza line, with an OPS of .600 or so.
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I'm not sure why you have a problem with David Murphy. Dude's no superstar, but compare his stats and Torii's: http://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.htm?id=5532 http://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.htm?id=7628 Here are my key takeaways: Torii's and Murphy's career OPS are virtually identical, but Murphy is 30 and Torii is 37. The OPS trajectory of their past 3 or 4 years has shown that Murphy is flat to slightly-improving, whereas Torii has shown a precipitous decline (and again, this goes back to age). Murphy's contract for 2012 is $3.625 million plus one more year of arbitration. Torii's contract for 2012 is $18 million, and he's a free agent after that. While it's pretty much a certainty that no one will pay him 5 times more than David Murphy next year, there's no reason to think that he's worth even one red cent more, what with his lower current production and declining numbers. A smart GM doesn't replace Murphy with Torii. A smart GM might plug a vacant hole with Torii, but that's not the situation in Texas.
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Is the Affiliation Dance about to begin?
70charger replied to Jim Crikket's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Googled; couldn't find. I'm not ready to buy the book. Do you happen to have a link to the article? -
Heh. I think the ultimate point here is that trying to make comparisons using different players is a fool's game. Some are simply better players than others; some need less development than others; etc. If you make comparisons looking at the same players' AA stats versus their AAA stats, I think you're making a better comparison, but even that is muddied by the fact that, once ready for AAA, players are usually better than they were at AA. The statistical argument to be made here is probably at the PhD level. I'm the first to admit that I'm not at that level. By impressions, I think AAA is a higher level of ball. Most players, with a few stars (and some need-based callups) excepted, need AAA, and they're commensurately better there than at AA. Some players top out at AAA/Quad-A to be sure, but that seems more like a comparison to the majors.
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Was Dennys Reyes not available?
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Well, there you have it. That makes it easier to stand by my earlier opinion, which is that having Butera on this roster isn't a terrible idea, given that, of the other 2 catchers, exactly zero of them is a full-time catcher. That said, we have to be honest about Butera's abilities. He's not magical behind the plate, but he's a perfectly competent option. It would certainly be better if he could hit well, but couldn't we say that about nearly every other bench player in all of the major leagues?
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I don't think he's talking roster spots. That outfield has David Murphy, Nelson Cruz, and Josh Hamilton, as well as a good 24-year old prospect in Leonys Martin. If Hamilton walks, maybe Hunter's a one-year guy. If Hamilton stays, where do you put him?
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I get what you're trying to say, but it seems like a composition error unless it can be further fleshed out. Just because Butera caught a plurality of Liriano's starts last year, and just because Liriano was bad last year, doesn't mean that Liriano is or isn't worse when Butera is behind the plate. If Liriano had a total ERA+ of 80 last year, and we later found out that when Butera was catching it was 120 and when others were catching it was 50, then your point wouldn't hold. All of this isn't to say that it's a necessarily invalid point, but if someone were to crunch some numbers (fair warning: I'm not gonna), we would have a definitive answer as to Butera's effectiveness viz. Liriano.
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The Twins need to sign Liriano to a 2-3 year contract ASAP
70charger replied to DaveW's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Isn't it ironic that you assume that I'd go to wikipedia to look this up (I didn't, I was citing it for your reference) when you relied on a thirdhand source for your definition? -
Good thing Doumit is the only one who will ever get hurt. Ever. Right? Or perhaps your concern is only applicable to one discrete situation. - Your point is not well thought out, your grammar, syntax, and writing style are atrocious, I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
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They should ask for a ton. He's, frankly, a good player, and if we're talking prospects (as we should be) then I want multiple good-to-great prospects in return. Besides, ask for 2000 pounds and you might get 1500 without too much of a fight. Ask for 1000, and that's where you stay.
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The Twins need to sign Liriano to a 2-3 year contract ASAP
70charger replied to DaveW's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
1) A quality start is at least 6 innings (not 5), and 3 earned runs or fewer. 2) Bert Blyleven didn't just make it up, it's actually a baseball stat. Blows my mind that you haven't heard of it... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quality_start -
The Twins need to sign Liriano to a 2-3 year contract ASAP
70charger replied to DaveW's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Straw man. I said they should not be that active, not that they should ignore it (that's just dumb). Pick up a couple of starting pitchers in the $5-8 million range, and call it a day. The Twins cannot go blowing their wad on a $100 million contract for Greinke, etc. They need focus on the farm or we'll go from the worst team in 2012 to a third place team in 2013 to the worst team in 2014-2017. This short term focus is ridiculous. -
Plouffe has been hugely successful this year. Even after his numbers normalize (and I assume they will), he's a solid player at a very low cost. If he cranks 20-30 home runs in a year on top of that, I've got no complaints.
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The Twins need to sign Liriano to a 2-3 year contract ASAP
70charger replied to DaveW's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I don't think the Twins should be that active in the free agent market. Long term, the smart money is in building the farm. Everyone has referenced "overpaying," and one person has countered that that's the market rate. I say that that's the market rate FOR FREE AGENTS, and that still may mean overpaying by comparison to talent coming up from the minor leagues. Liriano is not going to singlehandedly get us into the playoffs in 2013. Flip him, get prospects, and plan for the future. Long-term deal silliness aside, even signing him to a one-year deal is a very expensive way of trying to catch lightning in a bottle. A cheaper way of trying to catch lightning in a bottle would be letting Liriano go and giving a set rotation spot to someone like Liam Hendriks and letting him take his lumps. Worst case, he's no worse than a bad Liriano. Best case, he's another Scott Diamond circa 2012. -
Excellent. It inspired me. I went to Target the other and purposely went to the express lane on the end. I picked up some Topps myself, and I'm glad I did. Got a Mauer. #winning.
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Yes, with reservations. If you don't get a good enough offer for him, it'll be hard for the fans to stomach. Granted, he'll be a 3 month rental for whoever picks him up, but we should get something in return, as this should not be a salary dump situation. That said, there's risk on both sides of this transaction. We'd be trading a huge upside, but we'd be trading a hugely inconsistent pitcher. I'd completely understand if the Twins made a 1-year qualifying offer. I'd completely understand if the Twins offered 3 or 4 years at $7 or 8 million per. I'd completely understand if the Twins traded him. Players aren't usually this confusing, but Liriano is. As it stands today, I'm leaning towards trading him. But I don't work in the front office.
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I think this is pretty important.
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As said before, if you're as fast as Revere, any coach will tell you to smack the ball and run it out with your speed. I'm pleased with his contact rate; he's hit at every stop in the minors, and I never thought he wouldn't hit in the majors. He's blowing me away with .320, but even with some regression to the mean, he can still be a dangerous table setter. Add his outfield range, and you're looking at one heck of a solid piece. Going back to the Carroll/Revere comparison, one of the (few) differences I saw is Carroll's higher tendency to foul off pitches. Do you think maybe he is better at fouling off the marginal pitches to keep the at bat alive, thus making it statistically more likely that he'll draw a walk? After all, you'll never draw a walk if hit a marginal pitch poorly in play; you might draw a walk if you flip a marginal pitch foul and live to see another one.
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The "clutch" conversation is conditional confusion. If a team did well in a pressure situation, then a player must have come through in the clutch. Don't confuse that which is required for that which is merely sufficient.
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I think too much has been made of the Willingham-Mauer comparison. They're not competing against each other. If there's an injustice here, it's not because Mauer "took Willingham's spot," especially since they don't play the same position. No, the injustice here (such as it is) is only that teams out of the spotlight only get all-star representatives because there must be one from each team. How many players deserving of being called elite have been passed over because they play somewhere other than the coast? Willingham isn't even close to the best example....
