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70charger

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Everything posted by 70charger

  1. 70charger
    Look, I don't pretend to have seen these people play or really know that much about guys who aren't even in professional ball much less the majors, but it strikes me as odd that the Twins would consider taking Stewart over Gray when the latter has been considered so good that he's among the consensus "big three." 1) We've been hearing for quite some time that there's a dropoff after these three players. If you miraculously get one at four, you take him. 2) What with college and football both possibilities for Stewart, you're not saving any money with him over Gray. 3) The consensus also seems to hold that Gray and Stewart have similar top-of-the-rotation ceilings. With the same ceiling, don't you want the one who's closer to the majors? Again, I won't pretend to any special knowledge, but I think this is the most lopsided scenario of the ones you've posted.
  2. 70charger
    I noticed that too. But I enjoyed having Smalley in the booth. Maybe it was a change of pace kind of thing.
  3. 70charger
    And exactly one fewer Tommy John surgery. Totally the same thing...
  4. 70charger
    Well, 6IP and 6ER for Gibson. Not the result he wanted, I think. On the bright side, Arcia has a double and a home run.
  5. 70charger
    Indians fans are drooling on their keyboards right now. I also don't know why the Twins would choose Stewart over Gray if the latter dropped that far.
  6. 70charger
    Marshawn Lynch of the Seahawks. Apparently skittles are the new Gatorade.
  7. 70charger
    Sometimes there's nothing to be done between AAA and the majors. Sometimes the guy isn't good enough. I just hope that isn't the case when it comes to Worley and Hendriks.
  8. 70charger
    You really are doing a good job. With all the overt negativity around here lately, it's nice to get some posts with reasoned analysis. So thank you.
  9. 70charger
    I may have been more comfortable if he were still having issues in Rochester, as that would tell me perhaps that he really is injured. Now, it just looks like he may have AAAA stuff. (Small sample size, I know.) Sadly, it's looking more and more like Hendriks may be the same way, and I am/was a believer that Hendriks could make it as a #3/4. I hope this entire post is precluded by 1) Worley becomes awesome, 2) Worley becomes good, 3) Worley becomes serviceable, 4) SSS.
  10. 70charger
    It is an interesting point, and I don't disagree, but I think the consensus isn't that it's a bad year to have a top pick, just that it's a bad year to have top pick just outside of the top 3. Personally, I'd be disappointed if they picked up McGuire. I'm aboard the Stewart train too.
  11. 70charger
    Just so you know, Joe Benson is still alive as of Monday, May 27, 2013. I will keep you updated.
  12. 70charger
    This is kind of where I land, but I also agree with USAFchief. Seems contradictory but I don't think so. I don't like the move, I think the Twins had far more viable "dump" options than Benson, and it's not in doubt that Benson has talent whereas others like Hermsen pretty much don't. I'm also meh about it because Benson has been hitting below the Mendoza line in the minor leagues for 2 years, and this is his last option. I've got $20 says he's DFA'd again at the beginning of next year, which is exactly what the Twins would have done. Of course, if the Rangers do it, they won't catch as much grief. Winning records mask a lot of questionable moves, don't they? On the flip side, losing records make meh moves look like they are proof of what we already "know." It's called confirmation bias, and it's where most of the posters on this board are these days.
  13. 70charger
    Different result. Now that Benson is claimed, he's got to stay on the major league roster. Undoubtedly better for him than being released and signing a minor league contract somewhere and ending up off the 40-man... ...which will be where he ends up next year anyway, so who really cares that much? Edit: sounds like I'm advocating for this position, so I'll add: I don't like this move. I think Hermsen should been given up instead, and come on, he's passing through waivers if we're honest with ourselves. I also don't necessarily think that the Twins are doing this to be nice to Joe, but it's an interesting perspective.
  14. 70charger
    But this doesn't help the posters here to dump all over the Twins. And thus it doesn't fit the narrative.
  15. 70charger
    You're arguing hindsight when he was arguing pre-season expectations. This really isn't that hard to figure out. You can do it. Try.
  16. 70charger
    Either that or no one wants to explain the concept of "idiot luck" to you. But cool story otherwise, bro.
  17. 70charger
    No! We need to keep him down so we have room on the roster for what's his face. You know. That one guy? This is the season that we need to see him in the bigs so that we learn what we have with him and/or learn his name.
  18. 70charger
    I'm not sure you get what irony actually is, Alanis.
  19. 70charger
    Me neither. That's bad. That said though, I agree with the above sentiments. He can't really be sent to AAA if you want a realistic assessment of who he is long-term. I'd include Parmelee, Plouffe, and Florimon there too. Let's just hope that at least one or two of them is worth keeping around.
  20. 70charger
    This got a little buried probably because it is so close to the draft these days, but good interview. I enjoyed it.
  21. 70charger
    Worley and Bucholtz are not on the same level, and surely not close this year. Pitch count is an individual thing. I think we've seen that Correia is only useful until about 100. Pelfrey's got 70-85 in him. Hernandez may be similar. Honestly, I don't think you're getting anything more than 99 out of Worley at this point.
  22. 70charger
    I was curious too. After a good last year, a hyped spring, and now this, I thought the Twins might really be able to use him. But the fact is we're not in a hurry. He's not really a prospect, he's not on the 40 man, and as a stopgap, he'd only be called up if we lost someone else to injury or possibly ineffectiveness (depending on who it is). My thought is that trade deadline moves will end up giving him his shot, and after roughly 48 years in indy ball, that'd be a real story. I hope he's ready, and I hope he does well.
  23. 70charger
    The relative downside is not even remotely close to the same. If you sign a guy like Willingham for example, which by all means was NOT an expensive free agent contract, you're on the hook for $21 million. If he implodes, that's serious money. If you sign a guy in the third round and he never makes it out of AA, you've paid him maybe $300,000 over the life of his contract and given the minor league fans something to watch. I think it's terribly obvious that signing good players in free agency is far more likely to get you a good player than signing a kid in the draft, waiting five years, and crossing your fingers. But when one fails, future teams suffer. When the other fails, people yawn.
  24. 70charger
    jharaldson - a .39 correlation!? That's way lower than I would have guessed. Thanks for running the numbers.
  25. 70charger
    I may not be adding anything, but Oxtung is quite correct. Probabilistically and assuming 1:1 payment for comparative value, the general managers who chose better pitchers given the entirety of the pre-season information - to include none of what might be deemed hindsight - are doing better than those who pick up worse pitchers. Where I think those of you who are disagreeing with Oxtung actually disagree is in the fact that probabilistic outcomes don't determine playoff teams or World Series winners. The games themselves do, and as we see year after year after year, luck can be a harsh mistress or a generous lover, depending on which team she favors. There's probably a Yogi Berra quote that addresses this somewhere... In any case, the decisions made in the pre-season must be evaluated in light of pre-season information because it is the only - ONLY - way to control for luck. A general manager may turn out to be right, or he may just look right once they start playing the games and get a little lucky.
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