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Oxtung

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Everything posted by Oxtung

  1. Oxtung
    At this point Buxton is a wildcard and it's hard to know if he will need to be pinch hit for. Suzuki clearly could be. Escobar not so much; he had a .750 OPS last season.
  2. Oxtung
    He might be one of the five best starters currently. Even so the Twins are probably a better team with May pitching high leverage innings out of the 'pen.
  3. Oxtung
    Personally I don't have a problem with this decision based on the current roster. There are many adequate options for the starting rotation (Though I think May would be better than a few of those) where as the bullpen is in dire straights without him. So given those realities the team is currently the best with May in the bullpen. My problem is with the offseason decisions that put the Twins in this position to begin with. A spot in the rotation could have been created and the bullpen could have been shored up. IMO that would have been the best solution given the roster at the beginning of the offseason.
  4. Oxtung
    I think you hit the nail on the head here Brian. If the Twins were to cut Nolasco and/or Milone they don't have enough starters to make it through the season. Certainly one of them could move to the pen but you do have to take into account they probably don't want to at this point and there maybe repercussions because of this. It's real easy to sit back and say "be grateful you're getting paid and make the move with dignity" when you're on the outside. It's another thing entirely when you're the one getting demoted after years doing the job. How many of you can honestly say you wouldn't be disappointed if you walked into work tomorrow and your boss told you, "Hey we know you've been with the company for several years, you've been working hard, but we need to make room for your subordinate Steve. Starting tomorrow you'll be reporting to him." No matter how poorly you've been performing that's going to hurt and embarrass most people. On top of that someone comes with a microphone and immediately asks for your comments. I've never been in that exact position before but I know when I'm hurt I don't immediately make the best choices. After I calm down and think about it I am able to make some rational choices (and apologies) but in that moment...
  5. Oxtung
    It seems we have a fundamental difference in how we view Kyle Gibson's future, and probably current, capabilities. The data shows that pitchers begin to enter their decline phase (albeit a slow decline initially) in their early to mid 20's. By 32 their velocity and k-rate decrease while they're LD and FB percentages increase. On top of that there are very real injury concerns here. Set aside for a moment that he's already had one TJ surgery and what that means for a potential second surgery and instead focus on just the natural injury risk associated with pitchers. We are currently seeing that with Nolasco, Hughes and Perkins. Kyle Gibson is not the type of player that is going to break the bank. He is a low strike out ground ball pitcher and that skill set just doesn't get paid very much. Extending him just to save 5 or 10 million dollars over the next 4 or 5 years will have no impact on the Twins ability to sign future FA's or extend other deserving players. It will however lock the Twins into paying him regardless of any injury or decline that does happen. It also cements his spot in the rotation barring multiple terrible years like Nolasco. Perhaps Gibson improves over the next few years. Perhaps he can remain healthy. As a fan I certainly want to believe those things, however the statistics show those are less likely outcomes.
  6. Oxtung
    His ERA+ the year before was 87. So if you want to split the difference and call him average at this point I'm fine with that. My point is that if he is average-ish now, in his prime, do we really want the Twins to lock themselves in to decline phase (and probably below average at that point) Gibson? For those of you who are pro-Gibson extension, what is the upside to an extension? On a completely unrelated note, does anyone know why my paragraphs are reformatting and I end up with no spaced between my sentences?
  7. Oxtung
    Kyle Gibson is not an MVP caliber player like the 3 you mention above; if he was the conversation would be very different. He is somewhere between below average and average right now in his prime. The question is do we want to extend a pitcher that will be post prime and likely to be below average 5 years from now.
  8. Oxtung
    There was just a big study released attempting to predict TJ surgery a few weeks ago. One of the factors they found predictive of future TJ surgeries is having one in the past. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/02/predicting-tommy-john-surgeries.html
  9. Oxtung
    If anyone is interested, I think an interesting article would be Plouffe's comparables for next season. If he's making $10M does that price him out of the trade market? If they couldn't move him at $7M this off season why do people think he'll be movable next year at a higher price and a year older? Back to the article at hand. If the Twins have truly given up on the Sano at 3B experiment than extending Plouffe for a season or two makes sense. There isn't another player with the Twins currently that profiles to be better at the hot corner.
  10. Oxtung
    Interesting. Didn't know that. Is that true than for players like Dylan Bundy who signed a MLB deal immediately for less than 6 seasons, iirc?
  11. Oxtung
    I'd be fine with a 2 or 3 year extension at a reasonable rate for Escobar. As you stated within your piece there really isn't anyone close to ready that is clearly going to be a better option. At the worst he could become a nice utility player if his bat slips a bit. OTOH I don't think the Twins would sign (or be wise to sign) a contract that allows ROsario to opt out of his contract after just 4 seasons. You're better off going year to year with him (not that I'd sign an extension as I think he'll slump offensively until he learns to take a walk). Perhaps though he'd be fine if those were mutual option years instead? That would allow the Twins to retain 7 years of control and allow him to not be tethered to the 3 extra option years. Perhaps the pricing would need to be adjusted slightly though.
  12. Oxtung
    MLBTraderumors is quoting $4 million signing bonus with a $4.1 and $4.15million salaries in '16 and '17 respectively.
  13. Oxtung
    I might not have been clear. I meant there is frequently a pitcher that is legitimately injured or just not quite ready for opening day coming out of spring training. My guess is that happens again this season and therefore there Nolasco gets another chance at starting. Kind of like Pelfrey last season (though hopefully without the drug suspension).
  14. Oxtung
    It's likely that one of the starters will be on the DL to start the season. I think Nolasco will be in the rotation (or perhaps the one on the DL) because of this. I think Pressly will be with the team to start the year if he is healthy. He pitched real well last year. Tonkin on the other hand seems to be on his last legs. He's never been trusted enough to get an extended look and with the young guys coming up behind him he seems to be getting squeezed. Unless he comes out absolutely on fire I think his days are very limited.
  15. Oxtung
    What is the word on Harrison's defense in the OF now that he's had a full season?
  16. Oxtung
    Looking at the leverage index from last years relievers the first two were pretty obvious; Perkins and Jepsen who are good though not great. The next two were Boyer and Thompson. That is unacceptable. One will be replaced by May which will be fine but who picks up those lefty innings? What happens when Perkins wears down or Jepsen returns to his pumpkin ways or May is needed in the rotation? At this point this bullpen is neither strong nor deep. There really needed to be another acquisition this winter.
  17. Oxtung
    I can understand that. It's a minor league award after all, but why include him at all then? I guess that is where my confusion came from. Unless your trying to say that in half a year Sano was more valuable than all but a handful of the prospects over the course of the full season? Something else I'm missing perhaps? Just trying to fully understand the criteria.
  18. Oxtung
    I don't understand putting ABWIII ahead of Sano. Can anyone explain that?
  19. Oxtung
    I find it ironic that people are ripping the author for ripping the wave.
  20. Oxtung
    A couple of points. First, it is important to keep in mind that Sano has a BABIP >.400 and when that comes back to earth so will the rest of his stats (not that he will be bad just that he is going to regress some). So while he is playing very well, and hopefully will continue to improve there will also be a natural decline do to his BABIP. Just something to take into account. Second, does the fact that the Twins were unable/unwilling to buy out any of Doziers FA years have any impact on these negotiations? Does that add leverage to Sano?
  21. Oxtung
    IMO, I'd like them to go farther than balls and strikes. I'd like them to automate foul/fair calls and get started on algorithms for the close plays at the plate and the bases. The human element I like to see are the players, not the umpires.
  22. Oxtung
    I think it's important to realize that even superstars decline and that decline can come quickly indeed. It's easy to think that because they're great they'll continue to be great and slowly decline over the years but reality isn't that neat. There is a very real possibility that any player, superstars included, can crash and burn and do it in a hurry.
  23. Oxtung
    How do you know if you don't give him a chance to learn? He has played all of 90 games at SS in the majors. Do you doubt he has the tools? If so which?
  24. Oxtung
    Is anybody questioning that currently Escobsr is a better all around SS than Santana? I think the case being made is that Escobar isn't good enough to be an everyday SS and that while admittedly Santana hasn't been good so far this year he has the tools to be one going forward. His range and arm are clearly superior and his speed makes him more dangerous offensively. Perhaps what this really comes down to is where one sits on the "win now/win future" spectrum?
  25. Oxtung
    So the consensus is that Tulo is s great player and currently 100+odd games of him at SS with the remainder of those games going to a back up is still great production at the SS position. However we all agree there are injury issues and that a decline is likely and at some point will need to be moved to a new position. Therefore depending on how one views his aging curve and the Twins other options at SS determines where exactly one falls in the great Tulo debate?
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