Oxtung

Now you're right back to stating a reporters guess as a fact. Sure health issues COULD have been a reason but it isn't the only option. Perhaps he had some personal off the field issues. Perhaps there were clubhouse issues. Perhaps he wanted a boatload of money/years early on and nobody was willing to go that high and by the time he realized it and reduced his asking price FA was pretty close to wrapped up and there just wasn't the demand to push his price up, he did sign pretty late. It could be any of these things, a mix of these things or many other options. It certainly isn't a FACT that it is health and stating it as such just clouds the point you're trying to make.

This is my problem. Your analysis on Marcum was based on reporters speculating but then you interpret that speculation as fact. I saw plenty of speculation but have never seen anything concrete. That is why I asked if you had a source.

Here is the piece of the post I was originally quoting: That has nothing to do with health and everything to do with the quality of the pitcher. These kinds of statements get thrown around, or got thrown around during the offseason, with disturbing frequency. The idea is demonstrably false, since replacement level has a corresponding statistic that tracks players, yet these comments keep coming up to justify the offseason decisions made by the FO. On a different note, do you have any evidence to back up your assertion about Pelfrey and Marcum throwing off a mound? That seems pretty suspect. Marcum pitched the final 10ish games to end the season while Pelfrey was in the middle of the offseason following TJ surgery.

I have no problems with the Twins not following the WAR philosophy. But there doesn't seem to be ANY way in which Correia or Pelfrey are better than McCarthy or Marcum (or a whole slew of other pitchers that were available.) That is the problem here. I guess there probably isn't much point to taking this farther. This has been hashed several times this offseason.

I just don't get how people can still think this. There is plenty of evidence that shows this just isn't true. Statistically Marcum is WELL above average. Of qualified pitchers the last 3 years Marcum was 31st in ERA and 43 in WAR out of 132 pitchers. That includes a year in the AL East where NYY, Bos and TB were 1-3 in MLB in runs scored. People need to stop lumping him in with "replacement level pitchers".

No I'm not a professional writer but I appreciate the support! Brock's voodoo doll comment made me chuckle and my mind wandered a bit. Hadn't done any creative writing in a few years and it all just kind of came together. If it is something well received perhaps I'll find the time to write another piece or two during the season.

As a young male sensual experiences are something I could really get behind at the ballpark! And I guarantee I'd have a hard time focusing on the game!

Oh? It took me a little over an hour to write. I thought it was a pretty good backstory to Brock's injury inspired voodoo comment.

Don't forget the full backstory though. In the summer of 2011, believing he was ready for a promotion to the Twins starting rotation, Gibson decided to take matters into his own hands. After studying all offseason for just this contingency, a full rotation preventing his promotion, Kyle finally decided it was time to use his dark wizardly powers. He gathered his mommet doll, a needle and a piece of Scott Baker's hair. He began the dark ritual by affixing Scott's hair to the doll's head. A scrap of cloth torn from a jersey during spring training adorned the doll's torso and all was ready. With the echoes of the final ritual chants still ringing in the air Kyle slid the needle into the mommet's right arm. But wait!! Something was amiss. A searing pain was shooting through Kyle's own right arm. What had happened?!?! Cradling his now useless right arm he tried to rub the pain away. Staring at the mommet he realized with horror that the hair was in fact not Scott Baker's but rather his own! Through the tears of bitter disappointment Gibson swore revenge on his now arch nemesis Scott Baker. That rotation spot would be his! Kyle spent the next four months in solitude nursing his dreams of stardom in MLB. He poured all his energy and focus into rehabbing his injury and studying for his next attempt on Mr. Baker only leaving his lair when he must see his doctor or to procure elements for his dark rituals. Soon enough the time was at hand for another attempt. Kyle knew that he was not strong enough to challenge for a rotation spot in the spring of 2012 but his lust for vengeance was beyond controlling. He MUST make Mr. Baker pay! Kyle skulked to the Twins Ft. Myers training facility the day Scott was scheduled for his routine physical. Dressed as a lab assistant he had no trouble swiping a vial of Scott's blood. Now there would be no further mistakes. As he left the Ft. Myers complex he could barely contain the feverish energy that was coursing through his veins. As he drove back to his lair to consummate his dark plan he re-imagined the ritual several times, remembering the plan down to the smallest of details to ensure there would be no mistake this time. Within his sanctum deep inside his evil lair Kyle finally came face to face with his new mommet. Wanting the best chance to succeed he poured the newly acquired life blood into a small bowl with the mommet letting the doll drink of Scott's red essence. This was the strongest of all ties binding the mommet to Mr. Baker. In fact this was no longer just a doll, it had instead become a living symbol bonded with ethereal chains to Scott himself. Taking his needle in hand Kyle's tongue flicked over his dry lips. Panting with expectation he forced his breathing to calm. It wouldn't do to rush this. Kyle began the ritual easily enough, taking the mommet in hand he began the ancient incantations. Chanting softly to himself he mixed the required potions. Adding the fungi spores here, the ground red lichen there. All at precisely the correct time coinciding with the chant so that it wove a delicate tapestry of ominous action. Soon Kyle was deep into the ritual. The air was filled with the swirling power of the evil spell-crafting. As tempo of the chanting increased and he screamed the last refrains of the incantation Kyle new the time was at hand. Power flowing through him he thrust the needle into the mommets right arm. As the metal pierced the cloth Kyle was surprised that he instead felt resistance as though it was puncturing Scott's flesh itself. As the needle slid further into the arm Kyle could feel Scott's pain, he could feel Scott's aura trying to resist this evil deed but the blood magic was too powerful. While Kyle's vengeance was sated he knew his time for the 2013 rotation was fast approaching. His arm was quickly growing stronger. It was inevitable that he would join the Twins starting rotation. If for some reason he was denied his place of honor, his rightful spot in the rotation, well there were ways of dealing with that. Yes, his time was coming and he knew he would make it happen no matter who was in the way.

What are the reasons to resign him? The only reason I can think of is sentimentally driven fan loyalty. I can understand that as a reason, selling tickets and making money is obviously the ultimate point of baseball for the owners/FO. Other than that though I don't see a reason. The Twins are not going to be competitive this season or next. Possibly not until 2016. So you'd be holding on to an aging first baseman for a whole bunch of losing seasons. It doesn't make any sense. The better Morneau plays, the more he'll be worth, the more he needs to be traded.

I thought the Wellman ejection was hilarious. The part where he redrew the home plate was pretty funny!

Let me assure you I have read this entire thread. While I might get caught up in the more recent comments it is not out of an intention to purposefully be deceitful or to "win" an argument. It is more because that is the way the human brain works. It prioritizes recent events over previous events. This is why I wanted to to just break from the previous line of thoughts and get back to what your original statements were. I believe there is a possibility you are onto something with speed. Or SPEED if you prefer . As to my bar graph you're absolutely right that it is not useful in this case as it implies a 1:1 relationship between speed:OBP. That was not my intention. Call it a brain fart. Less try a less rigid representation. You believe that if a player is fast enough he can create more runs than someone with a higher OBP. You don't know where that speed to OBP ratio is however.

I'm digging this right now. Just such an interesting mix of classical with electronica. Really creative. Shadows - Lindsey Stirling

You made your rant after directly quoting me. So I took that as directed towards me. If that was not the case then I apologize for coming back as strongly as I did. Please be more careful in the future as to identifying who the subject of your writings are. Perhaps you could have begun the opening of that paragraph with something like, "This is not directed at you Oxtung but to the .....". Moving on. Personally I think this is one of the most interesting discussions this board has had in quite a while. It is by far more interesting than the retread rants about Butera or how many pitchers should be carried to start the season. This is a new conversation that hasn't been rehashed to death recently. Let me try and get back to the core of your argument. Hit the reset button if you will. If we think of OBP/SPEED as a bar graph I think it might help conceptualize your argument. On one end we have a player who's OBP is 1.000 but he can't move. On the other end we have a player whose OBP is .000 but he is The Flash fast. Obviously both these players are going to go scoreless. In the middle of the graph we have a player with average OBP and average speed. As you work from the edges towards this middle point the number of runs scored will increase. The unknown question here is where will the most runs be scored. Your arguing that the most runs will be scored somewhere slightly on the "speed" side of the equation. Is this a fair representation of your contention? OBP..............................Average............................Speed

Of course you're claiming that at some point speed is more important than outs. It is the fundamental pedestal upon which your whole argument stands. If a player has a lower OBP then he is making more outs. Now maybe his speed can make up for that in the real world. Hypothetically it is possible. But you haven't shown that to be the case. There in lies your problem. As for intellectual honesty I think you need to do some thinking on the subject. No where in my post was I claiming anything you haven't said. I in no way misrepresented your idea. I am a bit offended by your rant to be honest because intellectual honesty and social goodwill is something I strive for in ever interaction I have.

I think you have some unrealistically high expectations for how much professional athletes workout. Worley says his offseason workout regimen involves excersizing 3 times a day. It's not like he's sitting around doing nothing. His fiancee is supposedly cooking healthy meals. He even mentions having a special plate that measures serving sizes to make sure he is getting the correct amount to overcome his learned behaviors from childhood. He apparently has tried a few other techniques to stay with his weight loss regime (something about The Rock's weight loss technique which I didn't really get). You act as if he isn't trying to keep his weight loss under control. It is clearly something he struggles with. It is also something that he is working very hard to overcome. I think you need to reread this quote again: You either didn't understand what he was saying or are misrepresenting it. He's talking about his genetic predisposition to both wanting certain types of food and not having a high metabolism that is just able to burn the calories. He isn't passing the buck as you say. He is just stating what is the truth. He is at a genetic disadvantage. Passing the buck would be recognizing the problem then not caring and trying to improve. Which, if you read the article, is clearly not the case. Perhaps he isn't as successful as you would like, but then again I'm sure there is something in all our lives that we are not successful at that. Personally I say good for him. He recognizes that he has a problem and is trying to fix it. Doubly good for him to not give up even though to this date he hasn't been entirely successful. It is easy to just lay down the burden and call it good enough instead of battling for days, months, years to come.

Of course you're making that claim. If one has a lower OBP then one is making more outs...

Did you guys complaining about Worley's weight and attitude even read the article?

I think a case could be made for Joe Mauer being Mr. Twin right now. Obviously he has the physical skills needed but he also has all the intangibles that embody what the Minnesota Twins try to portray themselves as. You name a Twins cliche and Mauer fits the mold. Do things "the right way". Check. Pitch to contact? Sure seems like he leads the charge on the field. All American, wholesome image? Yup. Great hair...whoops wrong brand, but I think you get the picture. It also helps that he is the hometown hero and the face of the franchise (and will be for many more years barring injury). Every way I can think of, except for a World Championship, he fits the idea of Mr. Twin.

I've always imagined it is just like this! Can't wait! [video=youtube;_jjSlveHFqk]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jjSlveHFqk

I think the really large elephant in the room here is this, baseball is about TEAM runs scored not INDIVIDUAL runs scored. In your Guzman/Mientkiewicz example you only looked at individual runs. But Guzman also created an out >8% more times when at the plate. Add onto that his 13 times caught stealing and you're looking at many more outs. How many times did he prevent other teammates from scoring because he created an out?

Look Mauer's job is not to be the hero but to win the game. He is a very smart player and knows that he has MVP Morneau walking to the plate after him. So certainly if he gets a good pitch he can take a crack at it but his bigger responsibility is to not end the inning. If he takes a walk the Twins still have opportunities.

I went back and looked at how quickly "Ace" players developed excluding the players acquired since 2001. I saw no correlation between how they were acquired, early draft pick/late draft pick/international, and when they were first ranked. Through their age 26 season 66% of the pitchers were ranked at least 1 time. However only 25% of pitchers were ranked 2+ times through age 26 season. There was no difference in the development rate of 1st round picks and late round picks. So since we have 7 1st round picks already at "Ace" status and 0 late round picks that is significant. Young international signees are different though. If a latin player signed as a 16yo and placed at 26 for the first time they would have had to have been signed in 2002. Certainly I may have excluded some here. However, this doesn't take into account players like Hernandez, signed as a 16yo and by 21 already was ranked, or Zambrano, signed by 16yo and ranked by 22. They are two of the three youngest ranked; Saberhagen is the third, drafted in the 19th round and ranked at 21. It also doesn't take into account the recent influx of Asian pitchers that are already mature. The banner carrier here is Hideo Nomo who signed at 26 and ranked in his age 26 & 27 seasons. There have been several pitchers acquired from Asia with hype but that didn't produce at "Ace" levels. If you think 2001 is unfair to international signees, which I'm not sure if I agree with but for the sake of argument: Carlos Zambrano (signed in 1997, 3 seasons ranked) Johan Santana (signed in 1995, 4 seasons ranked) Hideo Nomo (signed in 1995, 3 seasons ranked) I might also have culled some recent pitchers from "Ace" status by requiring 2 seasons being ranked. I did this because I needed a way to remove those pitchers that had 1 great season but were certainly not "Ace" material. I'm looking at you, Dontrelle Willis. It is possible that some of the others that have been ranked 1 time could still turn into "Aces" later in their careers. Randy Johnson and Kevin Brown weren't ranked until their age 31 seasons. Here is the list of players that were acquired between 2001-2006 (anything more recent and they haven't turned 26 which is an important number as shown earlier), have been ranked 1 time and I think still have a chance of becoming "Aces": Josh Johnson Zach Greinke Johnny Cueto Gio Gonzalez Clay Buckholz Dan Haren Jaime Garcia Of those players only Haren, Johnson and Garcia weren't 1st round picks. So to summarize; 1st round picks and late round picks historically develop at the same rate. Since we have 7 first round "Aces" already and no late round "Aces" is notable I think. Of the potential "late bloomer" Aces only 3, Haren, Johnson and Garcia, weren't 1st round picks. International signees may not fit well within my pre-2001/post-2001 assumptions but even if you bump their acquisition date back 5 years to 1996, making them essentially equivalent to 21 year old college pitchers, only Carlos Zambrano is added to our list. So our new list of Post-2001 Aces would look like: Carlos Zambrano (Int, 3 Seasons ranked) Felix Hernandez (Int, 3 Seasons) Matt Cain (round 1, 2 Seasons) Cole Hamels (round 1, 2 Seasons) Justin Verlander (round 1, 2 Seasons) Jared Weaver (Round 1, 2 Seasons) Clayton Kershaw (Round 1, 3 Seasons) Tim Lincecum (Round 1, 3 Seasons) David Price (Round 1, 2 Seasons) Potential Additions would be: Dan Haren (round 2, 1 Season) Josh Johnson (round 4, 1 Season) Zach Greinke (round 1, 1 Season) Johnny Cueto (Int, 1 Season) Gio Gonzalez (Round 1, 1 Season) Clay Buckholz (Round 1, 1 Season) Jaime Garcia (Round 22, 1 Season)

Do you have any evidence to back this claim up? There is a reason TINSTAAPP exists.... I haven't seen data one way or the other on hitters vs. pitchers but I would doubt it is a clear cut as you are making it out to be.

I think my previous post needs to come with the caveat that provided the Twins believe a pitcher and hitter are at least marginally comparable. If there are only 3 big pitching prospects and they go 1-3 and the Twins have the next 8 players as hitters on their board I think you have to go hitter. But as long as a hitter and pitcher are close on their draft board I think you go pitcher.