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Oxtung

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Everything posted by Oxtung

  1. Oxtung
    Wow...just wow... How do you argue with somebody that is just making up facts?
  2. Oxtung
    There were at least 15 pitchers available this offseason that were average or better. Only 2 of those signed deals longer than 3 seasons. You keep talking as if there was this big cluster of average-ish pitchers that were available this off season and you're right there were a bunch. Unfortunately the Twins didn't get one of those. We instead signed the second to worst starter that received a contract this off season. He was carrying an ERA+ of 78 the last 3 seasons. We also signed Pelfrey who even when healthy is below average. Of course as we all know he wasn't healthy to start the season and we knew that was going to be the case...yet we still signed him. You keep trying to lump Correia and Pelfrey into the "mediocre" catagory as you put it and they just aren't. BTW...that article you linked to is worthless...just a couple of anecdotes with no statistics to show if the authors suppositions are true.
  3. Oxtung
    Joe Mauer has 5 doubles at Fenway. He has 6 everywhere else. There is still a game to play in this series...does he tie or surpass his non-Fenway numbers?
  4. Oxtung
    A long ways to go but maybe Daniel Ortiz is reclaiming his prospect status.
  5. Oxtung
    Pre-injury Pelfrey wasn't a very good pitcher. Pelfrey isn't pre-injury. In fact to start the season he wasn't even post-injury. It doesn't matter what pitchers do during this season. All that matters is what was known during the offseason. What was known is that Correia and Pelfrey had pretty poor chances of putting up even an average season. A better than average season is highly unlikely. However there were several pitchers out there that had good chances of giving us an average or better season. It's not about what a pitcher can do. It's about probabilities of what a pitcher probably will do. Liriano could win the Cy this year but the probabilities would be pretty small on it happening. That's why the Angels signed Greinke and not Liriano.
  6. Oxtung
    That's the thing...it really wasn't a crapshoot. There were pitchers that weren't going to break the bank that were clearly better than what the Twins got. Nobody is making the argument (at least that I have seen) that the Twins shouldn't be playing prospects. What I, and I think others, are saying is we had huge holes at SS and 2 pitchers where we had no prospects showing they were ready to contribute. The Twins, instead of using their available payroll to find average or better replacements, decided to find pretty much the worst pitchers available this last off season and just pocket the cash. How does playing Florimon, Correia and Pelfrey help the team long term?
  7. Oxtung
    I'm not sure if you're honestly not understanding what people are saying or if you're purposely misinterpreting what people are saying. I am also dumbfounded by your insistence that there was not talent available this offseason. Clearly there was much better pitching talent available than what we signed. There was everything from marginally better to superstar available this offseason. Lastly this idea that unless unless the Twins have a roster to win it all they shouldn't even try to contend is absolutely crazy. Teams make improbable runs every year. That alone should be enough of a reason to put the best product on the field the Twins can every year. Which clearly they did not this season.
  8. Oxtung
    Why would Dozier losing playing time to Escobar? Since being inserted into the top of the order Dozier has a .740 OPS. In the same time frame Florimon has a .462 OPS.
  9. Oxtung
    This is actually exactly the year it made sense to spend big to acquire talent. First, we had some gigantic holes to fill. Second, better talent means a better chance at staying competitive (which means more butts in the seats and more beers in the hand) and third, if you do slip from contention you can look to flip that talent for prospects to further help you "do things the right way" in this rebuild. So recap...we had the need, the FA's were out there, we had the money, could have helped us short term, could have helped us long term. Seems to me the only reason to NOT follow this approach is because of fiscal reasons.
  10. Oxtung
    Agree with PseudoSABR. Keep tossing them out there. I would say Hicks could use some time at AAA but there really isn't anyone to man CF. Clete Thomas is crushing it at AAA but isn't on the 40 man. Of course Wood is looking like he might not be a big loss if we just cut bait and that would open a spot for Thomas.....
  11. Oxtung
    Nobody is arguing that the Twins won't sign their guys to extensions. What we are saying is that the Twins (or perhaps Terry Ryan) are fundamentally opposed to signing other teams FA's to big contracts. The FA's on that team were Orlando Hudson, 1 year $5 million, and 39 year old Jim Thome for 1 year $1.5 million. Given that the Twins will have no big contracts from internal candidates, other than Mauer, in the next 4+ years combined with the dislike of FA's and an increasing revenue where exactly do you think that money is going to go?
  12. Oxtung
    I think that the pitch f/x is probably more accurate than the human eye but I certainly don't know for sure. Eyes are just about the least accurate measuring tool in existence. I think most of the problems people have with the data has already been filtered out at this point in the season or at least will be shortly. At this point already catchers have data from probably 18+ umpires and a hundred different batters. I think they're approaching sufficiently large samples to start ruling out some of these other potential sources of conflicting data. Should this data be taken as truth? Not yet. Does it suggest certain players are better at the skill than others? Yes. Getting back to the more specific, Ryan Doumit, this years data is along the lines of his last 5 years of data. This isn't data popping up out of no where. So it's fairly safe to say that he has been bad at pitch framing this year as well.
  13. Oxtung
    High correlation? No, not like the late 90's. A correlation none the less? Yes. If you spend more money you have a higher likelihood of winning.
  14. Oxtung
    Just to be clear here, you don't believe the pitch f/x system is accurate? Instead you think the umpire's "eye test" is more accurate?
  15. Oxtung
    Chief it's not fair when you come to this discussion loaded with resources to back up your argument!
  16. Oxtung
  17. Oxtung
    Again why? He has shown that he is a below average pitcher even when healthy. Those kinds of pitchers are available every off season. So there is almost no upside to signing him and moderate risk. Here is another way to look at it. Should the Twins move Duensing back to the rotation and sign him for $12 million dollars and 2 years?
  18. Oxtung
    I don't disagree that we normally scrape the barrel for pitchers or that Pelfrey should improve throughout the season and going into next season but what upside does Pelfrey have? Even when healthy and at his very best he is a good fourth starter. That kind of guy is available every off season so why would the Twins want to get locked into Pelfrey for multiple years?
  19. Oxtung
    Why would you want to lock Pelfrey up for multiple years? He is not a good pitcher. You can find Pelfrey-esque pitchers every off season.
  20. Oxtung
    Just a minor correction, because your overall point holds, but Rosario was drafted out of Puerto Rico in the 4th round in 2010.
  21. Oxtung
    A mixed day for big name pitchers in the Twins org. Berrios: 6IP 2ER 6H 0BB 8K also 3HBP De Vries: 4IP 1ER 6H 0BB 2K Meyer: 4.2IP 4ER 5H 3BB 6k Deduno: 5IP 0ER 5H 4BB 4k also 1 WP Cedar Rapids reliever Steven Gruver stuck out 7 over 3 innings today to bring his yearly totals to 1.52ERA 23.2IP 5BB 34K's. Since he played at Beloit last year one has to think he will get called up when an opportunity presents itself. Travis Harrison went 2 for 5 today with a HR and 3RBI's. Rosario 2 for 4 with a triple and run scored. Sano went 2 for 3 with a double and a walk.
  22. Oxtung
    Interesting....I thought common sense would tell us that umpires are humans that make mistakes. As a catcher if you can limit the number of strikes that are called balls and maximize the number of balls that are called strikes then common sense would tell me that you are a good catcher (obviously there are other variables here too). But I guess that is why we have the old addage: Common sense isn't very common.
  23. Oxtung
    I'm sure some will. That has always been the case. My point is that nothing has really changed with the fundamentals of FA. It's just that the pot of available money is larger and therefore the contracts will be larger.
  24. Oxtung
    Only for a couple of years then it will trend back to historical norms. Free Agency is still where the big bucks come from; whether those bucks are $2 million or $20 million or $200 million. Baseball players, like all commodities, want to maximize their returns.
  25. Oxtung
    I feel like my work with you and Kab is paying off recently. I've seen you both use not only the "elite starter" tag but also you're advocating for the high upside arm pick. I feel a bit like Darth Sidious.
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