Oxtung
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Everything posted by Oxtung
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Twins do not sign much internationally
Oxtung replied to Mike Sixel's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I think it is fair to discuss the scouting. I would add in other lists like Sanchez's over at MLB.com. However, IMO these lists shouldn't be taken as gospel. The international market seems to be much more nebulous than the rule 4 draft. As others have pointed out many of today's top international prospects didn't receive big bonuses. I don't disagree with your assessment that the Twins should be going after some of the top players but your only reference point seems to be that BA list which is not infallible. I would suggest it would be more beneficial to have this discussion several years from now when we see just who was signed out of the international market. If all that the Twins have coming up are utility infielders and soft tossing-pitch-to-contact players you will have a stronger point. -
That seems to rule out Meyer as well.
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Mike Napoli, Adam Lind (has an option), James Loney and Mike Morse have all hit better than Morneau this season, including his recent HR binge. Morneau is still 20th out of 25 in OPS for 1B with >350 PA. This has been stated many times but 1B is one of the easiest positions to fill. There are better players out there to fill the spot if Ryan chooses to avail himself of the free agent market.
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That conversation would start with Buxton, Sano, Meyer and Rosario. It would end with Ryan choking to death on the gum he swallowed reflexively.
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Your cost estimate might be right. I was thinking Buxton and a Berrios/Rosario/Kepler level prospect depending on Miami's preferences. On the other hand earlier in the year it was rumored that Stanton was available but that Miami wanted a MLB ready player in return. I would assume that would be true for Fernandez as well (if they are even willing to move him.) I have been weighing that very question myself and haven't come to an answer. We are starved for front of the rotation pitching and this would be a way to get it. We know Ryan won't sign it in FA. The only internal candidates the Twins have are Meyer and Stewart. Stewart won't be ready until ~2017. So for the next 4 years we're betting on a pitcher that has lost a significant amount of time to a sore shoulder this season. We're just in such bad shape.
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Twins do not sign much internationally
Oxtung replied to Mike Sixel's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
You're still making the assumption that BA knows who those top guys are. IMO when it comes to the international market that isn't a given. -
If I was the Twins GM I would be talking to Miami but it would be about Fernandez not Stanton. Trading for Fernandez would be costly but it would also fill that front of the rotation hole we have for the next 4-5 years. I have been looking at what the Twins could do to improve their team and this was one idea I had that doesn't involve a big name FA.
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Morneau went on 2 similar hot streaks in 2012. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] Dates PA's OBP SLG OPS HR Apr. 6-June 9 178 .320 .513 .833 10 June 19-Sept 11 265 .374 .508 .882 9 [/TABLE] He looked like he was going to be a good player going into 2013 and yet this year his OPS has hovered around .730 for much of the season.
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Twins do not sign much internationally
Oxtung replied to Mike Sixel's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I don't get as frustrated about international signings (unless we don't spend the money) because BA et al can't scout internationally as well as they do for the draft. So there are going to be players that slip through their net that are actually pretty good. As long as Ryan spends the money and his some of his players turn out to have upside I'm OK. As Lars said Thorpe is looking good right now. Jorge, Landa, Rosario and Romero were signed by Smith though. We'll have to wait and see when these guys get to A-ball to have a better handle on them. -
If Morneau has played badly for a long time why is resigning him the smart move?
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The Twins couldn't trade Morneau this year. Why would they be able to trade him away in the future, especially if he is signed to a long term deal? I would argue that Morneau hasn't done anything since his concussion to show he can handle 1st base. He has been below average all 3 years and 2 of those were significantly below average.
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I wonder how Niko Goodrum stacks up next to him. Everything I've read says he is extremely athletic as well.
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Correia will be with the Twins at least through May of 2014 because he's owed $5.5M dollars. Management isn't just going to throw that money away and nobody is going to trade for him.
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One thing that is getting over looked in this discussion is payroll. It is entirely possible that the owners and management looked at the long term financial outlook and decided this was their opportunity, before their hopefully soon to be big names start getting expensive. Two years from now they have some big increases coming. Here are the salary increases: Player - 2015/2016 Butler - $4M/FA Gordon - $3.5M/$3.5M Guthrie - $4M/FA Davis - $4M/$5M Perez - $.75M/$1M They also have 13 players that will be entering their arbitration years. They are also going to have to replace, like every team, many of their aging players and that is only going to get more expensive, as we've seen. That's $16M in contracts and according to baseball-reference.com, around $48M in arbitration players. By 2016 that figure balloons to $79M in arbitration money alone. This is the same problem I see with the Twins, if you wait two or three years until all of your prospects are established and ready to go you can no longer afford that top tier free agent and sign your young studs to long term contracts. I think it's entirely possible KC saw this coming and made a conscious decision to go for it, hoping their young guys improve, before the money crunch comes because they knew it wouldn't be possible in two years.
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I look at the mlbtraderumors.com list and think, "Any one of those guys would be the Twins' second best player and in some cases the best." I'd be thrilled if any of these guys were signed.
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That is probably true, but the hole he closed is a #1 pitcher which is quite a bit harder to find than an outfielder. Quite a bit more expensive as well. I don't find this move to be clear cut either way.
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I thought the Correia signing was terrible at the time and I still do. That said, he is not as bad as he has shown the last 3 or 4 starts either. I know it's easy to overreact to a recent start but he will get things back on track at some point. Personally I'm not going to get too upset about him anymore because he will be around for another year because he is, and probably always was, not tradeable. It was a bad decision and we're paying for it now but it will be a long year if I get upset after every bad start he makes.
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Please point out where someone has said both those things on this forum. I can't think of an example. TBH I can only think of perhaps 2 posters that think Mauer's contract is holding us back. For myself you're barking up the wrong tree. I think both the Morneau and Mauer contracts were both good contracts. Hell I even like that they went out and tried for a home run with Nishioka. They failed, but I applaud them for trying to find a long term solution at SS. If the Twins shouldn't sign anyone in FA because they don't have the talent to win the WS and they can't win the WS because they don't have the talent, how do you break that loop? There are only 3 paths to increasing talent. Draft, international signings and free agency. Seems to me the Twins are cutting of their nose to spite their face. There is literally no draw back to signing FA's right now. Even if they fail spectacularly the Twins still will have tens of millions to throw at the problem the next year.
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Two things. First, 85 wins and the Twins would be a contender in the central, so yes, I believe the fans would be there in droves. Second, you can no longer pump money into prospects anymore. Everything is capped. The only place you can freely spend is in Free Agency. Since the Twins will have $40-80 million in payroll flexibility and the only place to spend it is in free agency and the Twins have huge holes that could use upgrading....well you can see why people are upset.
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As Brooks stated above there is nothing guaranteeing Rosario's success. However, if the Twins did sign Guerrero and then Rosario came up and tore it up, isn't that a good problem? Perhaps one of them can fill a hole elsewhere on the roster or if both are quality players. Or one can get moved for a missing piece or more prospects. If on the other hand Rosario fails then you still have a shot with Guerrero or vice versa. There doesn't seem to be a lot of downside to signing him, at the worst the Twins lose out on some cash but, unless you truly believe the Twins will splurge in the near future, that isn't a big deal (well maybe if your last name is Pohlad....)
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thanks
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Article: Twins Season Takes Another Dismal Turn
Oxtung replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'll just second what RB said mostly. Morneau looked so much better in 2012 that it seemed possible, with a fully healthy off season, that he could OPS >.800 this season. I don't think anyone was expecting MVP type numbers but a step forward wasn't out of the question, IMO. I have no problem saying that, to me, his lack of production this year is unexpected. -
Also there is a Baseball America scouting report on him but it require insider access. If somebody wanted to hit the high points for those of us who are too cheap or poor that would be great! Alexander Guerrero Scouting Report - BaseballAmerica.com
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Wolfson has linked the Twins to 26 year old Cuban SS Alexander Guerrero. He apparently defected in January of this year but has been unsignable so far because US Office of Foreign Assets Control has yet to "unblock" him. In Cuba Guerrero OPS'd .997 or better each year between 2009-2011. There are supposedly three teams interested in him; the Twins, Dodgers and an unnamed third suitor. I have been very critical of the Twins off season approach to free agency but that would turn around in a hurry if the Twins signed a legitimate future piece like Guerrero is believed to be. There is some question if he can stick at SS in the majors but considering our MI situation currently combined with our history I would love it if the Twins took a risk like this. We aren't exactly overflowing with talent at 2B at this moment. Rosario looks very nice but he is still just a prospect and Dozier while looking competent is certainly not setting the world afire. I would be ecstatic if this deal was completed! Three Teams Vying For Cuban Shortstop Guerrero: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com P.S. Off topic a bit but how do you make a link appear as a word. So if I typed "you can view the full story here.", how do you make "here" a link?
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Correia has held opposing clean up hitters to a .568 OPS. #8 batters are OPS'ing .840.
