Oxtung

Why are you denigrating the Astros approach? The Twins are almost as terrible and yet they won't be getting the #1 pick. They also aren't going to be receiving the prospects that Mauer and Perkins could have brought them. The Astros on the other hand brought back all the prospects they could and are ensuring themselves the top pick in the draft for several years. They are maximizing their opportunities. What's better being honest about a complete rebuild and doing everything in your power to make it happen or claiming meaningful games in September while slashing payroll and simultaneously not committing to the full rebuild? IMO the Astros are the better run organization currently even though they have far less resources both monetarily and at the major league level. What does Toronto's trades have to do with Miami's FA binge or how the Twins could be maximizing their attempt of returning to contention?

The Cubs, Marlins and Astros have all made trades to improve their minor leagues so that is a wash. They have all drafted good players, so again, that's a wash. The Marlins are going to build around Fernandez and Stanton which is what we hope Meyer and Sano become. They also have 9 other players considered top 100 prospects either on their roster or will be on their roster within the next 2 years. The Cubs have Rizzo and Castro with another 5 top 100 prospects on the way including Baez who is basically Sano but might actually stick at SS for a few years (although with Castro he might slide to third anyways). The Astros have 13 top 100 players either with the squad or on their way. The trio of Correa, Springer and Appel would give Buxton, Sano and Meyer a run for their money. So talented youngsters seems to be a wash. Waiver claims, rule V signings and FA's like Pelfrey and Correia aren't going to help this team return to contention. They are just stop gaps until someone better comes along. I advocated for trading Mauer last off season with the correct assumption the Twins weren't going to sign any high end FA's. He would have brought back prospects and the Twins could have payed as much of his salary as was required to increase the return. So, my question isn't "What are the Twins doing?" but rather is "What are the Twins doing that other clubs aren't?" What is giving the Twins the edge in the "return to contention" race?

The Astros have decided the best way to return to contention is to burn it down, be terrible and draft as high as they can. They sold all the assets they have. The Marlins signed a bunch of big name free agents then traded them for several quality prospects (that may not have been the intention at the beginning but it the result). They too have shipped off most of their veterans and are now integrating their prospects into what will hopefully be a playoff team soon. Sooner than the Twins I'd wager, if they can find a way to keep Stanton. The Cubs signed the most consistent pitcher available last off season to try and help stabilize their rotation and while it hasn't worked so far that doesn't mean it was a bad move (personally I expect him to rebound next season nicely). They have traded some of the assets they acquired during the offseason. I think the single biggest move they made is to attack international free agency with reckless abandon. They spotted a loophole and the exploited it to what looks like will be their advantage. By the way, the Cubs W/L record might be bad but their runs scored/runs allowed is 100 runs better than the Twins. That is a massive difference. It seems to be sheer blind "luck" that the Cubs record is as bad as it is this season. All 3 of these teams have a set path they have taken to return to contention. They have identified some nitch in the system they believe will help them return to contention better than the rest of the rebuilding teams. The Twins on the other hand don't seem to be choosing any path to maximize their chances. The Astros, Marlins and Cubs might not all be immediately successful with their approaches but at least one can look at them and see what they are trying to do. One can acknowledge they have a plan and they are doing everything in their power to make that plan return them to relevance faster/better/longer than their competitors. How exactly are the Twins maximizing their chances of returning to contention?

I'll take the chance at greatness over the guaranteed back end starter every day. Doubly so since that cash "saved" was not used to improve the product elsewhere last season. Mike is that you?!?

I think there are 2 reasons to believe the Pohlad's might be willing to spend. First, Jim, Robert and William might want to step out of the "cheap" shadow that Carl created with his spending habits. If that is true than what better time to show you're willing to spend than on a 90 loss team with huge holes? Second, none of the remaining Pohlads have won a World Series. There might be a desire to bring home a championship even if it means spending to do so. Remember Carl won two early on in his tenure of ownership. Do the kids want to show they can follow in dad's footsteps?

I'm not sure what there is to disagree with. That quote is abundantly clear as it states "...he will probably develop into a middle-of-the-road first baseman..." Everything else is just a dressing on the window to make it look pretty and cover the unknown. You are certainly entitled to your opinion on Abreu's value but that doesn't change the fact that historically $10MM/yr for an average 1B is an overpay. If you believe Abreu will be above average or that salaries are going to rise significantly this off season than clearly his salary would be justified. Again, I don't have a problem with the Twins pursuing Abreu, I was just relating an article that disagreed with what seemed to be most people's opinions of his talents.

As always Parker your analysis is insightful! Let's hope that if Mauer doesn't return to the dish our new catcher will be better at framing the low pitches and that Gibson rebounds from a tough start!

I'm not arguing Hendriks is a good starter (or will become one). I am saying the Twins let pitchers struggle for quite a while before they pull the plug. Hendriks is not a rarity. I would be interested to see what he brings to the bullpen. Perkins wasn't lighting up radar guns as a starter either....

To update the other teams as well: Chicago Cubs: 2 @ Milwaukee, 3vs. Atlanta, 3 vs. Pittsburgh, 3 @ St. Louis. Brutal. Seattle Mariners: 2 @ Detroit, 3 @ Angels, 3 vs. Royals, 3 vs. Oakland. A bit easier than the Twins. Milwaukee Brewers: 2 vs. Cubs, 3 vs. St. Louis, 3 @ Atlanta, 4 @ Mets. That bodes well for the Twinkies. Chicago White Sox: 3 @ Detroit, 1 vs. Toronto, 2 @ Cleveland, 4 vs. Royals. Slightly easier than the Twins. Prognosticator Ox says the Twins end up with the 5th pick. Man, the Twins aren't the only team tanking this September. Winning percentages this month: White Sox .235, Mariners .250, Cubs .375, Twins .375.

As somebody already stated, this was a production list, not a prospect list. Mayo explicitly stated Sano is the better prospect but Franco had the better stats this season.

The Twins annals are filled with pitchers that have been given long leashes despite their failure. Frankie Rodriguez, Pat Mahomes, Jose Parra, Scott Aldred and Rich Robertson all pitched more innings than Hendriks for the Twins with hideous ERA's. I only had to look at 2 years in the late 90's to find these guys. Hell the poster boy for failure as a starter is LaTroy Hawkins. 521 innings pitched and a 6.21 ERA. Liam pales in comparison.

The scouts opinion was that the most likely outcome, or as he put it "If he is simply what he is right now, he will probably develop into a middle-of-the-road first baseman with '80' raw power...", was that Abreu turns into an average player. So yes, in one scouts opinion he might have a higher ceiling but the chances are that he won't reach it. You're right Loney has been below average, but then he's paid like it too. On the other hand Mark Reynolds has been the definition of average offensively for first basemen. LaRoche got 2/$24MM and Washington certainly thought he was above average since they extended him a QO. Berkman got 1/$10MM and he has been above average. Carlos Pena signed a 1yr/$7.25MM deal going into 2012 and he had been average to above average.

The scouts weren't talking hitting a major league slider in that quote. They were implying that he can't hit a fastball. 4 years and $40 million is $10 million per year. $10MM for middle of the road 1B seems expensive. Loney got 1 year $2M last off season. Mark Reynolds 1yr/$6MM. Morneau was a middle of the road 1st baseman last year and I think everybody would agree he was overpaid. Nick Swisher signed a 4 year $56MM contract but he has been well above average at 1B. I don't know how high salaries will climb this year but if Abreu is "middle of the road" $10MM would be quite an increase from previous seasons. Now all that said the Twins have plenty of money, lack talent, and scouts have been wrong before. I would not mind the signing. I am just not as excited by it as I would have been for Guerrero or Tanaka.

You seem to be talking about content rather than organization, which I don't have an opinion on. I was saying I really like the fact that I can find every teams top 20 lists, the overall top 100 list and top 10 per position all from the same web page. In addition I really appreciate that the updated stats are right there. When I'm searching out prospects it makes searching so much easier. Mayo updated his list the same as BA this season. Grades + a write up at the beginning of the season. Then after the halfway point of the season he updated the order of his list, but not the grades/write-ups (except for the new draftees of course). The one difference I can see is that he removes players when they are no longer considered prospects because of time spent in the majors.

No matter what tier Ryan is signing from I don't think he'll sign more than 2 pitchers to major league contracts this off season. Correia and a lefty are virtual locks (Albers, Diamond, Hernandez) and I think Gibson is very likely.

Article on ESPN about Abreu. Jerry Crasnick talked to 4 scouts who were not big fans. The scouts were not impressed to say the least. One scout tossed out a contract in the range of 4 years $32-40 million. Of course he also said: It would be interesting to know if this tempers enthusiasm a bit.

Just to 2nd Mr. Nelson's words, Polanco and Goodrum didn't split reps at SS. Polanco got almost all his playing time at SS when Goodrum got hurt during the second half of the season. The number of games Polanco started at SS and Goodrum at 2B were in the single digits.

I actually really like the way mlb.com organizes their prospect information. Much better than BA, IMO.

Let's just say he had an option year, would you want to exercise it? I certainly wouldn't. This isn't Baker who has a decent chance to be a #2 starter.

I think it's safe to say the Twins' scouts like him since the members of the FO have flown over to see him pitch personally. When is Tanaka expected to be posted?

The biggest problem I have with "questioning" is that it assumes the Twins are making the decision. But they don't. It is up to the player to decide the best course of action. I know that if I had the option of waiting for my body to heal itself or undergoing a proceedure that has a real chance of ending my career, the surgery would be my last resort.

I think the Twins are very weak at lefty starters. Albers is here on pure guile, Diamond is pretty shaky, Hernandez is borderline and that leaves ... ? Darnell? He doesn't seem to be much of an upgrade. The next guys down are were in A+ ball this year and they both seem like fifth starters as well. IMO you have to get all the way down to Cedar Rapids and Elizabethton to find lefties with even moderate upside. So who is the best lefty available this year? Who might be available for trade? Something is going to need to be done there before long.

I'm would love for the Twins to go in on Tanaka. Sign Johnson, sure! I think Dan Haren would be a great second or third signing. I think the Twins will stay away from anybody attached to draft pick compensation, and I'm not sure they're wrong. If they do however decide it is worth a draft pick to sign one player, then they better go all in and sign another 1 or 2 players with compensation as well (assuming they are the best pitchers available, which seems likely). Giving up a 3rd or 4th round pick would be worthwhile for Ervin Santana, for instance.

Neither Cahill or Gonzalez were prospects when they were traded by Oakland. Both had already pitched multiple years, been All-Stars, and had low 3 ERA's. Nothing about those trades were similar to the situation the Twins currently find themselves in.

So, in your opinion the Twins have all the talent they need to win the World Series either in their minor leagues currently or that can be added by free agency during the '14-'15 off season?