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jokin

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Everything posted by jokin

  1. jokin
    I haven't heard anyone state that they hope Masterson will improve dramatically, just that he offer a very reasonable chance at pitching at his career averages, which by all accounts thus far, are pretty good. And to the contrary of your opinion, IMO, the signing of one or two SPs at one-, or two-year deals in the case of the Twins- with 3 hot-prospect SPs on the cusp of contributing- seems like a pretty smart strategy to raise the chances for a playoff run in both 2015 and 2016.
  2. jokin
    I don't assume that Masterson will get healthy. Parker and everyone else acknowledges that the Twins are doing their proper due diligence on him, and should only move forward with assurances that he has no major structural damage to his arm or knee. In the last 5 years, Masterson has only had 2 FIP/xFIP results above 4.00, with one of those, 2014, clearly being injury-related- so only 1 year in the previous 4 years could be rated in the "inconsistent" column. And further regarding his consistency, his durability is far better than those other two Twins targets I illustrated. Yes, Garza's WHIP over the last 5 years is 1.23 and Hughes' is 1.28, vs. Masterson's 1.41, but consider this: Men on Base FIP/xFIP Garza 3.87/4.07 Hughes 4.05/4.05 Masterson 3.83/.3.82 And this- LOB% with Men on Base Garza 18.2% Hughes 22.5% Masterson 33.1%
  3. jokin
    A short-term deal is exactly what the Twins should want. The pipeline is backed up out to 2019 with good SP prospects.
  4. jokin
    1) A chance to compete w/ a healthy Masterson changes the expectations for contention. 2) A chance to bridge the question marks between the established SPs and prospect SPs. 3) A declined QO turns into an extra 1st round pick. 4) A chance to trade for top prospects in mid-season for the most-coveted commodity.
  5. jokin
    I don't get this conclusion, getting Masterson (and getting one other high-upside SP FA to click) would mean the we ARE making a run next year. Including Masterson's bad year in 2014- 2010-2014 Stats: Garza- IP/Yr- 165 K/9- 7.45 FIP/xFIP- 3.76/3.76 Hughes- IP/Yr- 159 K/9- 7.50 FIP/xFIP- 3.92/4.05 Masterson- IP/Yr- 184 K/9- 7.50 FIP/xFIP- 3.79/3.79 Assuming Masterson gets healthy, and comes at a discount on a "show I'm healthy" short-term contract, what's not to like with this track record?
  6. jokin
    The Twins are repeatedly said to be pursuing 2 SPs. Why not both on short-term deals?
  7. jokin
    Yep, yep, yep. I wrote about that previously. With this potential Starting 5, the Twins would be in the position of having the best SP depth in quite some time, maybe ever, and takes the pressure off of the prospects and the Twins to expect immediate impact out of ST. Should Anderson and/or Masterson falter, you still have the Triple M Plan B depth of (May, Meyer, Milone), plus possibly Pelfrey, Rogers, Darnell, Gilmartin, Duffey and perhaps later in the season, the best of them all, Jose Berrios. And with short-term FA contracts, no significant blocking of prospects going forward.
  8. jokin
    The Twins are said to have as a top priority at least one, if not two, SPs. Masterson and Anderson together would be a perfect fit for the Twins needs in the short-term.
  9. jokin
    Are you sure about that? 2010-2014 Stats: Garza- IP/Y- 165 K/9- 7.45 FIP/xFIP- 3.76/3.76 Hughes IP/Y- 159 K/9- 7.50 FIP/xFIP- 3.92/4.05 Masterson IP/Y- 184 K/9- 7.50 FIP/xFIP- 3.79/3.79
  10. jokin
    Better options? His numbers all dropped dramatically year-over-year. His innings were about the same while his ERA, WHIP, H/9, doubled or nearly doubled while his ERA+ and WAR halved or nearly halved. His split advantage also evaporated- .760 OPS vs LH/.713 OPS vs RH. And he's rarely used in high-leverage situations, 22 PAs in 2014. As far as league average (LA) for RPs vs. Thielbar (CT), he doesn't fare very well there, either: K/9- (LA) 8.46 (CT) 6.61 K%- (LA) 22.2% (CT) 17.0% WHIP- (LA) 1.28 (CT) 1.41 He does have 2 options left, would he pass through waivers? Probably a close call, depending on the timing.
  11. jokin
    I think that's why some of us aren't relaxing, as Howard Sinker said a little over a year ago- "there are at least two dozen guys on this roster that wouldn't be missed, they are mostly all below "below-replacement- level." Purge now while the purging is good.
  12. jokin
    If you think those 3 are going to be added, then besides Duensing (I agree, he's gone), Swarzak and perhaps Thielbar, are probably also on thin ice.
  13. jokin
    Two STs in a row, Aaron Hicks was All-World against ST pitching, and we know how quickly he was exposed... and the Twins fell for that ST mirage, twice. Rosario hasn't come close to accomplishing at AA what Hicks did three seasons ago. The things you legitimately cite as "areas to work on" in your opening paragraph will likely overwhelm any favorable ST impressions, even if they are at Hicksian levels. IMO, the wisest course is having a solid Plan A (FA LF/ platoon CF), with the understanding that Rosario is a solid upgrade as a Plan B- as one who could knock the doors in and claim a spot in May, June, July, with a decent performance in Chattanooga/Rochester.
  14. jokin
    Kris Johnson was sold to Korea in October. Adding the three "guaranteeds" listed by Seth above will put the roster at 39. They would still have to move at least 3 more for Goodrum, Gilmartin and Wheeler to be added and still leave a Rule 5 spot. You're right though, Thompson is a good candidate for removal, other possibilities are Achter, Darnell, Pryor, Fryer, Thielbar, Colabello (also a possible sale to Korea), Hermann, Parmelee (the guys in bold I suspect have the best chance of retention)- that's 9 guys right there. Arb-eligible players total 7- the pitchers seem the most expendable- Duensing, Swarzak, Fien, Milone... with 3 position players, Plouffe, Nunez, Schafer, out of which Plouffe, Fien and Schafer seem, at this point with the current roster, as almost certainly vital for the Twins to retain. That still means there are 13 guys currently on the "potentially expendable list." That's plenty of potential room for a Rule 5 pick-up spot, plus prospect additions, FA signings and trades.
  15. jokin
    Great in-depth analysis by Seth. Interesting to note that this year's 3 automatic roster-adds are a whole degree of magnitude more talented and "automatic" than last year's 4 add-ons. 4 questionables in 2013 vs. 3 'no-question' this year. The top talent is very close to breaking out. I didn't like reading again that nagging undercurrent message about Meyer: Very troubling to see this lingering doubt yet again in print. Is this opinion accelerating in baseball circles, is it coming mostly from the outside portentous "I told you so's" with ulterior motives, or, more disconcerting, from voices within the organization- ie, based on Meyer's shoulder health, psychological make-up, or organizational frustration over lack of response to the Twins coaching regimen with respect to acceptable progress citerion for an SP?
  16. jokin
    +1 Past off-field issues and inconsistent production are not erased by 115 AFL PAs. I'd prefer to see him force the issue and steal a spot away in-season, not have it handed to him in April based on those AFL PAs and irrelevant ST stats.
  17. jokin
    Good call, on the right track.... I'd go 45/45/10. If a LF is signed, it's 70/30/0. (When was the last time they had a guy go north w/o mastering AA?)
  18. jokin
    I bet Terry could give you 5 reasons... http://media.gazettextra.com/img/photos/2010/06/10/ParkerGrad6_t500.jpg?21bf6915bb019ee8470ac50ab6ce308e04d7a184
  19. jokin
    Rosario sure got a heap of love on MLB.com, and he had a nice set of AFL splits in his SSS, nice jump-off to 2015. Here's just a sample that closed out the article:
  20. jokin
    Send him to AA. The spring weather is much better in the Southern League, which in turn will be more conducive to getting him ready to get the call to Minnesota, and besides, that's where all of the impact position prospects are likely to be to start out the season.
  21. jokin
    And realist spycake bursts a few more illusory bubbles of hope.
  22. jokin
    FIFY
  23. jokin
    As things stand now, and the seeming unlikelihood that any major additions will be coming in from outside the organization, I am one that would be absolutely thrilled if the Twins hit around the .500 mark in 2015. It would mean that there would have had to be some combination of events: more of the rookies were called up and had immediate impact, sophs didn't regress, the OF situation miraculously stabilized, Mauer returned to career average, Plouffe and Escobar prove that 2014 wasn't a fluke, Hughes stopped his pattern of even-year-on/odd-year-off, Nolasco returned to career average. I'm not holding my breath that the majority of these items will have come about. Assuming they basically stand pat on the extended roster, the most optimistic take would be that the earliest they could hope to be tabbed as fringe, not perennial, contenders would be 2016. And then, going into 2017, either Hughes would have to be re-signed or another potential ace acquired, or the Twins have to draw to a perfect inside straight with May, Meyer and Berrios. Still seems like at least SEVEN years in the dark forest.
  24. jokin
    I just wish people weren't so unrealistically positive when "throwing out these five and six year numbers" when it comes to the Twins. Your math is off. We are now in the midst of the fourth off-season of the rebuild, not the third, 2011-2015, and the Twins have already sent signals about off-season moves and 2015 payroll projections that Year Five of non-competitiveness is all but assured. And sadly, that is highly reflective of the Twins history since the 70s of the typical rebuild being of at least five bad years, followed by a number of bad/mediocre years as they finally accept the need for more comprehensive roster turnover. Here are the positive+++ and negative--- cycles for the Twins since '62. +++ 1962-1970 Mostly strong years, two mediocre. 9 years. --- 1971-1986 Mediocre to bad SIXTEEN YEARS +++ 1987-1992 Mostly good years with one bad. 6 years --- 1993-2000 Bad, bad, bad EIGHT YEARS +++ 2001-2010 Very competitive, one season under .500. 10 years --- 2011-2014 Thank God for the Stros. FOUR YEARS & ??? The Twins have a few rookies dipping their toes in the major league water, but the projected impact prospects still have quite a ways to go before this team will be worthy of regaining the title "perennial legit contender." Hopefully, it can be before 2019.
  25. jokin
    So Tanner English is 5'10" and 160? Based on his similar style of play, if he also has diabetes, I believe we might have to announce a Sam Fuld II Alert.
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