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jokin

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Everything posted by jokin

  1. jokin
    I think you're shortchanging the haul that the A's got, just a bit. Nolin was a Top 100 guy in 2013, Graveman was stellar through FIVE levels of play in 2014 (is that some kind of record for promotions?). And Barreto is likely to join the Top 100 list some time in 2015. Lowrie has the talent, he was a 1st round draft pick, after all. Perhaps the A's think they know how to solve his oblique problems. Despite what some have written about the chances for Nolin and Graverman as starters, here's what your BA article said: As others have pointed out, including me, Oakland tends to get more out of the guys they acquire than what was expected, witness Jesse Chavez, who they got off the waiver wire from the Blue Jays, a lot of those guys labelled "back end starters" have a chance to do better in Oakland. Nolin seems like a perfect fit.
  2. jokin
    Only if the arbiter sees more from the numbers I've cited that show Dozier's done better, plus the two year's difference in their ages going forward to 2017. Right now, Walker has the longer track record in his favor, the other indicators appear to be going in Dozier's direction. Again, even if he regresses as Steamer projects, the strong salary inflation dynamic in MLB is going to push up that Arb 2 number quite a bit by 2017.
  3. jokin
    ***From Baseball Reference- Dozier 2013 WAR 3.8 + 2014 WAR 5.2 = 9.0 WAR not 8.9 WAR. That's a 1.4 WAR difference, and the trend appears to be heading in Dozier's direction. If 1.0 WAR is supposed to represent $6M, and now likely $7M, the trend seems to be Dozier's friend for a bigger arb award in 2017, especially being two years younger. Dozier only played half the season in his first (failed) year, and as I acknowledged previously, Walker has the longer track record upon which to judge. And Walker has only played in 129, 133 and 137 games the last 3 seasons, by contrast, Dozier has played in 147 and 156 games the last two seasons, so normalization of WAR isn't entirely accurate in terms of a batting-order-manager-decision difference. In point of fact, Dozier has played 33 more games than Walker over the last two seasons, 5th most for all 2nd baseman,, definitely a valuable data-point for clubs seeking durability at a key defensive position. Another big difference is the area you have completely left out- the Baseball Reference defensive metric in the overall component, which shows Dozier grading out the better 2nd baseman.
  4. jokin
    Dozier is two years younger, I have no argument that Walker has a longer track record. I also agree that the decision involves a bit of speculation and poker on the part of both parties. But if Dozier just continues on his current path, even somewhere between 2013 and 2014 (I'm not sure how he should be fairly evaluated to drop to 2.9 WAR, much lower than either of his last two seasons???), plus salary inflation, he's going to make a whole lot more than Walker when he reaches Arb2. Consider just the last two seasons, and hence my point about who has been the better player: Dozier rWAR 9.0 /d WAR 2.2 Walker rWAR 7.6 /d WAR 1.2
  5. jokin
    I thin the Tigers think that both the Twins and Rangers "posted" without respect for Yang.
  6. jokin
    I would hope the Twins are thinking about this contract two/three moves ahead... a team-favorable contract as in the case of Denard Span, will make Dozier a desirable piece to more teams when it comes time to move him. Example, the WAR numbers say Neil Walker is clearly an inferior player and is set to earn $8.6M in his second year of arbitration. Based on the rate that salaries are climbing, Seth's estimate of 8-10M in Dozier's second year as arb eligible is likely going to end up being too low. $7M for Dozier in 2017 could be looking pretty cheap to prospective suitors who will be looking at potential sticker shock on Howie Kendrick, Jose Altuve, Daniel Murphy, et al.
  7. jokin
    And it wasn't perfectly clear that he was the top performing pitcher, Yang had a better K rate and WHIP in 2014, but Kim's ERA was a full run lower. Yang and Kim have come up together, same age, both LH. Kim's career ERA is a full earned run lower, with similar peripherals elsewhere.
  8. jokin
    To be fair, Berardino is defending himself on Twitter by claiming he had two sources, one apparently might have been either the manager or coach of the KIA team (they and the team trained in Ft Myers with the Twins in ST). And he's had a pretty good record up until now. It also does sound a little like the KBO plays a little fast and loose with their bidding rules.
  9. jokin
    Gene Glynn has had the Red Wings gig for the last three seasons, 2012-14.
  10. jokin
    The wild, wild East?
  11. jokin
    What a mess. And maybe a little skullduggery?
  12. jokin
    One thing is definitely going to change, and that is, I'm sure we'll be seeing much more defensive shifting from Molitor, this should gel nicely with the Allen hiring, who has worked in an organization that has pioneered modern shifting strategies.
  13. jokin
    Importing what level of hitters? Found this on YouTube. Yang strikes out former Twins AA farmhand from 2005, Luis Jiminez, who starred for the Latte Giants last season: <media>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiWVD97eKwE&list=PLfOZ_qv8ydNEoVIkQb0F9BODzX3CCkfZ3 </media> I really like the Yang pony-tail and disarming Harry Potter demeanor. Also, could the Twins make an offer to KIA on the play-by-play guy to replace Dick Bremer?
  14. jokin
    The only thing I know about the KBO is Hyun-jin Ryu, and Yang is no Ryu. http://i.minus.com/iSEcqZ5bQrrbG.png Ryu LHP 6'2" 255 # KBO career: ERA 2.80 K/9 8.8 BB/9 2.7 WHIP 1.154 Yang LHP 6'0" 172# KBO career: ERA 4.33 K/9 7.7 BB/9 4.7 WHIP 1.503 Can Yang be a serviceable MLB pitcher? Absolutely. But there's definitely more than one reason that translates really well in the above numbers why the Twins won the bid. If KIA does follow through and accepts the low-ball bid, the expectations for his level of success just have to be properly calibrated.
  15. jokin
    Berardino's source:
  16. jokin
    Interesting. Based on what I've read and Allen's track record with Price, et al, Meyer might be the biggest beneficiary of this move in the long run.
  17. jokin
    I dunno, Willis was Berardino's revealed guy.... it was LaVelle who was the one who broke the news that Allen was suddenly in the running. Sounds like it possibly could be that Allen's agent was a little chatty? *** ***(or someone close to Glynn?? pure speculation only if Glynn had any role in this, if at all)
  18. jokin
    This was his foundational philosophy at AAA. Phil Hughes and Trevor May will likely be on board with this (Good thing Kevin Correia isn't around any more):
  19. jokin
    Based on last season, the questions on the 3Ms appear to remain largely unanswered. Hence- Every reporter on the Twins beat is saying that acquiring an SP, or two, is either "the" priority, or at the very least, "a" priority. And Masterson's name came up early on in FA season connected to the Twins, much as their own version of a White Whale, Matt Garza, surfaced early-on a year ago. I am of the impression that Ahab Ryan will see how the market develops, but hold fast his harpoon to a specific $$$ number/years, and likely lose out in the end, as he did with Garza. I can see them dropping down to seeking another bounce-back on short-term status, like Gavin Floyd and/or Josh Johnson, or seeking another guy that won't cost a pick. One or two of the FA SP Big Three will set the market, probably by the Winter Meetings.
  20. jokin
    I think that's what most everyone wants, including possibly Masterson himsefl.
  21. jokin
    T-Bar's FB velocity dropped close to 89MPH, thus, he relied more heavily on his so-so slider, which became a net Pitch F/X minus pitch for him in 2014. And most importantly, he lost his split advantage against LH batters- LHB OPS .760 --> RHB .713. These developments helped lead to these significant drop-offs from 2013, with about the same number of IP: 2013 ERA 1.70 SIERA 3.64 K% 22.8% H/9 4.70 BA .153 OPS .530 LD% 19.0% 2014 ERA 3.40 SIERA 4.06 K% 16.0% H/9 9.54 BA .270 OPS .734 LD% 26.4% Neither in 2013 or 2014 did the Twins see fit to put Thielbar into many high-leverage situations, only a little over 10% of all innings pitched. There have to be other options to consider
  22. jokin
    Wait, what? I must have missed when that "CF logjam" gummed up the works around here- didn't we just set a modern record for most games played by non-CF in CF in a single season?
  23. jokin
    Nice to see Polanco hit the ground running. He was 2-4 last night, which brings his slash line after 4 games to .611/.667/.611/(1.278) on 11-18, with 3 walks, 2 SB, 2 Ks, hitting safely in all 4 games. Interesting to note, he has played 2nd base in all 4 games. And a question for Seth.... Is Thorpe going to throw any innings in the ABL?
  24. jokin
    Yep, and that option year would give the Twins a little payroll flexibility. Anyone at all familiar with him should agree that he's very close to a #2 level starter when fully healthy. .
  25. jokin
    You mentioned one of your main concerns was WHIP. The FIP/xFIP and LOB% numbers with MOB, indicate that he is a far better pitcher than Garza and Hughes in the same situations, which mitigates some of the concern for Masterson's WHIP issues. It would seem that his high GB% has likely induced a ton more DPs than Garza and Hughes, that's a good thing.
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