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jokin

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Everything posted by jokin

  1. jokin
    The reporters are reading the TD threads... Paul Molitor, overheard on KSTP TV regarding Hunter's potential spot in the order (paraphrased): "I can envision Torii batting 2nd in the order, as he did in Detroit, in certain situations, he did very well there... I can also see him batting clean-up in other scenarios..."
  2. jokin
    Back-up DH? The Twins can clearly go a different route than that. It sure seems that Hunter (2014 OPS+ 111) is destined for at least 35-45 games at DH if they want him to play close to 150 games. Mauer (OPS+ 107) had 19 DH games last year... seems safe to say he'll get at least that and maybe up to 30 in all. That leaves 100 games or so for Vargas (OPS+ 115), Pinto (OPS+ 98) or maybe Arcia (OPS+ 108) to pick up, combined. Pinto would clearly be the worst choice of the bunch.
  3. jokin
    Would they abruptly move Darnell out in one year from LHSP depth to becoming merely a LOOGY? (Even if his numbers scream that as his ceiling).
  4. jokin
    Yep, the sky isn't falling. But you are answering a question that wasn't really asked in the OT. The question was- "Who won the first day of the Winter Meetings?"
  5. jokin
    I've been predicting they end up with Hunter in the clean-up spot. The first 3 spots look clearly taken, is there any way your big off-season FA signing is moved down to the 5, 6 or 7 spot in the order? Nope. The only way Vargas gets the clean-up spot, is if Santana is moved down into the 9-hole, with Hunter batting 2nd.
  6. jokin
    And that's the point I was trying to make originally to Brandon (shorthand version)---> LaRoche for Dunn (and replacing Abreu for a significant chunk of defensive reps), is not a wash, but a pretty decent upgrade.
  7. jokin
    Fundamentally speaking, LaRoche has been a much better player over the last 3 years, in the field and at the plate... Adam Dunn oWAR for the last 3 years--- 1.9 Adam LaRoche oWAR for the last 3 years-- 6.3
  8. jokin
    Only if you fail to consider all of the assumptions in coming to the conclusion.
  9. jokin
    A team going for it in the big way the Sox are will bow to the inevitable and end up giving LaRoche at least half of the starts at First Base, and likely more... which is how I'm basing my WAR evaluation... LaRoche is a far better defender than Abreu. LaRoche desperately wants to play in the field, I'm betting that the facts and his pressing the issue results in him ending up with more games than Abreu and plays at least 100 in the field, which was the essential point on why WAR is extremely relevant when comparing Dunn, Abreu and LaRoche.
  10. jokin
    Huh? Dunn 2014 WAR 0.3 LaRoche 2014 WAR 2.2
  11. jokin
    Maybe we should be worried, at least a little. Over the last two seasons, the Twins only have a winning record in the AL Central with the Sox. Without the Sox being pretty bad, the Twins could easily have been looking at 100 loss seasons, in 2013, and maybe even 2014. It's hard to say for sure how much the Sox have improved, but there's little doubt that these moves have improved them, and improved their chances on taking the season series from the Twins.. Where do the Twins go to make up those assumed-won games that are now more problematic, and that padded their record a bit in 2013 and 2014?
  12. jokin
    Rick Hahn is the only one talking, he just said 90 wins was his goal. Just off of 2014 WAR, the Sox potentially improved by 4.1 in LF by removing Viciedo and his -1.0 WAR and adding Melky's 3.1 WAR. LaRoche had 2.2 WAR- vs. practically 0 WAR from Konerko and Dunn combined, maintaining that production, and moving Abreu off of 1B for a big chunk of games could mean a net increase of 3 WAR. The 3 additional RPs all replaced negative WAR RP arms, look for a possible 3-4 WAR increase there, and it could be worth more than the WAR numbers if the additions can hold leads better, which is a fair bet. Finally, Shark's 3.7 WAR is replacing Bassit at 0.3 WAR. That's a potential 14 WIN improvement, right there. Now add in potential improvements from their young players who are still on the upswing (ie, Steamer projects Garcia to improve by 1.5 fWAR), Adam Eaton and Chris Sale staying healthy all season, a possible solid contribution from rookie Rodon, and maybe Johnson, and the fact that Hahn says he isn't done making improvements, finding 3-5 more wins doesn't seem impossible to imagine. I'm not saying it's going to happen, lots of things would have to fall in place just right, but there is a rationale for this roster construction.
  13. jokin
    Yeah, my mistake. I was trying to answer your charge that he was only a DH, in which case, he would have had the 4th best OPS among all DH-only guys. But he will likely play more 1B than DH. Whatever the case, he was the best quality guy available in Free Agency at the position, had significant playoff experience, and also filled the hole the Sox had with the lack of a big producing LH bat. You can argue that they should have tried to trade with Colorado for Morneau, instead, maybe they did, but the Rockies were asking too much.... but regardless, they had the money, and they filled the need, and only committed to two years... Possibly a slight overpay, but I don't get why this is much of a problem with a team really going for it this year and next.
  14. jokin
    You're all over the map here. First you have been saying over and over that Shark will probably get less than 20M/year. Now you're saying he'll be close to Lester. $5M-6M/year is a big difference, and this is one case where the home discount + win-now! pitch should really come into play. And finally, a point of agreement, Lester is better than Shark, you know it, I know it, and most importantly, the Cubs know it.
  15. jokin
    I seem to recall you were saying that the Sox were going to, along with Semien, probably empty their farm system of a couple of their Top Five prospects- and cripple the franchise going forward with this move. Exactly the opposite happened. The A's didn't sign Shark because they can't afford it. The Cubs signed Lester instead, because they can afford it.
  16. jokin
    At 1B== 4th in OPS. 8th in wOBA. 9th in wRC+. And look for LaRoche's HR totals to go up in 2015, balls fly out of US Cellular at a 45% higher rate than Nationals Park (which was the 2nd lowest park in terms of HR output).
  17. jokin
    No one else has come close to Bautista in TF, except for Thome. As far as the White Sox pitching and Melky, here's a link to the MLB team pitching numbers, since Melky entered the major leagues in 2005, or, the last 10 years... note that the White Sox are rated the #1MLB pitching team in terms of WAR over the last 10 years, so it's easy to conjecture that Rick Hahn surmised that the White Sox pitching has less to do with Melky's hitting prowess at US Cellular than the stadium itself: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2005&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
  18. jokin
    Melky had better numbers this year than "the year prior" that you refer to (and a better ISO). You may as well argue that he's used PEDs in 2014, as well. And then you used Viciedo as an example why Cabrera would fail, even though Viciedo had his two best years between 30 and 32- the exact time frame for Melky's contract with the White Sox. The contract is from ages 30-32, not 33. Melky has the highest BA among LF over the last 4 years and the 4th most hits. Defensively, he also has the 3rd highest ARM rating, both last year, and over the last 4 yeas, for LFers. 147 PAs at US Cellular, not enough to say he'll duplicate those career numbers, but more than enough to suggest that he tends to do well there. Jose Bautista obviously likes Target Field, and he has less than half of the PAs that Melky has at US Cellular- his numbers in Chicago played a part in Hahn offering Melky the contract.
  19. jokin
    Thankyou. By all accounts from the experts, LaRoche is a very competent 1st baseman.
  20. jokin
    I think you are dismissing the costs to getting better via Free Agency- if they can be absorbed without crippling the team long-term, what's the big deal?... and you're minimiizing the quality of Robertson and... LaRoche- he isn't just a DH! "Average"?... his .817 OPS was 8th best among 1st baseman in 2014. That .817 OPS would have been 4th best among qualified DH's. Robertson has been really, really good over the last four years, pitching in the NY pressure cooker, and being asked to take the place of the greatest closer of all time. 4-year stats- K/9 12.35 K% 34.0% WHIP 1.10 BA .200 ERA/FIP/xFIP/SIERA 2.20/2.40/2.46/2.20 ERA+ 220
  21. jokin
    It was 4 years/$46M for Roberston. And yet with all of that money, their payroll has only gone up, net-net around $25M. From around $90M to $115M. Melky doesn't have the potential to be a star? We may have different interpretations, but anybody that gets an 8-figure AAV contract is, would seem to be, by definition, a baseball star. Shark is likely worth the extension- that's the going rate for #1s and #2s, the Shark is very durable. And in IMO, you worry far too much about the $60M on five players- the vast majority of their players are cost controlled, rising players. Ramirez will likely come off the books soon, maybe after this year. The Sox went out over the last two years and bought a set of complementary quality players to build around Chris Sale in his peak production, late-20s seasons (He's a FA in 2018). You have to strike while the iron is hot, it costs money to do so.
  22. jokin
    I'm guessing that LaRoche is going to play a ton of games, probably the majority of his games at 1st, not DH. The Sox didn't need a platoon player, they needed an experienced LH bat to break up their heavy RH tendency in the middle of the lineup. LaRoche also has 4 years of postseason experience. Did they overpay? Maybe a little, but he is by far the best FA option that met all of the criteria the Sox needed, plus it's only a 2 year deal, and he definitely isn't an Adam Dunn rerun.
  23. jokin
    Using career numbers isn't helpful in this case, Melky is vastly above league average in his last 4 years. To reiterate, Melky has a .351 OBP over the last 4 years, and also had a .351 OBP last year. Victorino is now 34, Melky just turned 30. Victorino's deal with Boston was made at age 32- which would be the last year of Melky's 3-year contract, not age 30, as it is now. Victorino's numbers at the same point in time as Melky, that is, from age 26-29, are inferior to Melky's. Victorino 26-29 .281/.346/.437/.793 wRC+ 106 Cabrera 26-29 .309/.351/.458/.810 wRC+ 122 And then Victorino went out and had his peak WAR years at age 30 and 32 (5.4 and 5.8), with a 2.6 WAR year in-between. Do you think the White Sox didn't do their homework? Melky's career numbers in US Cellular- .336/.366/.591/.957
  24. jokin
    I don't have a problem with either May or Meyer using that spot as a temporary steppingstone, but I get what you mean. It isn't easy to break into a starting rotation and stick, the Twins just made it harder for May, Meyer (and Berrios in the short run) to do so. Hopefully at least one, and better all three, rise to the challenge and force the issue. The competition for starting jobs has an additional benefit, as it has the potential to make Nolasco, Gibson and Milone better performers.
  25. jokin
    We can all dream the dream, can't we?
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