jokin

Yep. I was going to say, Cody couldn't name everyone, but especially Vargas and Sano could capture this town pretty easily with a hot start. Sano's already been under the media spotlight for years, I have a feeling he's capable and will probably be ready for "showtime" ,and become a fan favorite right away. Vargas has the personality and a bit of the underdog that fans can readily identify with. All it will take is a handful of tape measure shots for the kid to gain some instant living legend props from the hometown faithful.

I realize that, but the times both of these players struck out on bunt attempts is likely very minimal, thus doesn't change the numbers much and doesn't affect the overall point\- decent-to-good bunting skills should add great value over another similar player unable to lay them down effectively, With the huge upswing in Ks in the game, and drop in power, creating baserunners is the priority. The threat to get on via the bunt at a high rate should serve to neutralize the shift effect to some degree, and pump up the top priority, OBP. Obviously, a manager wouldn't want a Cabrera to ever bunt much, if ever, but it seems like a solid gold strategy for table setter types and those with non-elite power, pull tendencies and a low BB percentage.

I remember reading that Rod Carew had a bunt-for-a-hit success rate of .722 with the bases empty. Carlos Gomez's career average bunting (all situations) is .452, which obviously, yields a .904 OPS, compared to his career .733 OPS. It seems having a competent bunt tool as a looming weapon to beat the shift would significantly help someone's overall average.

Really, that goes even more for three of the other 5 "sure things" in the pen. It's a headscratcher that Duensing was deemed worthy to bring back. Do you really pay that much to a guy who's value has effectively been reduced to LOOGY? w/RISP- .881 OPS .374 wOBA HiLevge- .853 OPS .366 wOBA T-Bar?- The Twins were fooled by his numbers in 2013- a sparkling 1.75 ERA was artificially pumped up by an unholy .175 BABIP and unrealistic 83.3% strand rate. He saw a 1+ MPH drop in velocity in 2014 and didn't miss many bats, which produced a 40% increase in his LD%, a contact rate that jumped from 76.6% to 86.7%, and a Swinging Strike rate that fell nearly in half. plus a BA that zoomed up from .153 in 2013 to .270. Stauffer?- The dreaded NL pitcher coming from a pitcher's ballpark and who only threw in low leverage situations. Hopefully, they won't be around for long as better RP options force their way onto the 25-man roster sooner rather than later.

I only base the third pitch situation on the few reports and my own personal observations. In the game I saw, he missed most frequently (on a percentage basis) with the change, as it was all over the place. Perhaps it was a lack of confidence on throwing it for a strike, perhaps he hasn't yet perfected the grip, motion and/or release, but it clearly was still a work in progress. The good news is that when it was working it was coming to the batter at around 74-77 MPH, a full 20 MPH less than his usual FB. It will be devastating once he masters it. The FB did sail or tail on him at times, but he quickly made adjustments in the following inning. The other thing I noticed was the big pitch count innings came against primarily a RH heavy lineup. Not that the RH hitters were doing much damage, it was just that, along with some occasional wildness, they were seemingly able to foul off pitch after pitch before Meyer could put them away. Meyer's career splits indicate he does well overall against RHers- low OPS, lots of weakly hit fly balls and more ground balls, but his K rate is about 25% less than versus LHers. I don't exactly know the reason from just watching him throw once, but you would think that eventually that slider, with a more effective third pitch will help to lower his pitch count problems versus righties.

Heh, heh. I forgot to include in my post turning triples into HRs. Thanks for picking me up.

For a guy with this once-in-a-lifetime-prospect speed, it's all about the OBP. Turning doubles into triples, turning walks and singles into doubles, turning GB outs into infield hits. Let the HRs come when they come. I predict he will end up hitting 20-30 HR/yr as he passes through his mid-20s.

http://i174.photobucket.com/albums/w94/PlatinumCT/SeizeTheOpportunity.jpg

* I was extremely careful to qualify my comparison of Meyer to Johnson. There was NO HOF-bound prediction on my part for Meyer- quite the opposite ("has a chance to become a #1/#2 starter") and I tried to fully acknowledge that Johnson was a one-off freak of nature. But it's being obtuse in the extreme to ignore the fact that there is a long list of similarities with which to make a developmental comparison- starting with both being a 6'9" flamethrower, and Meyer's building off of a better base in terms of control. Of the top three pitching prospects, based on the combination of performance and current tools, at this point of time (and subject to change), Meyer has the best chance in becoming an Ace. ** I think it's fair to say you generally mis-characterized what the strategy was and what was accomplished by Meyer and the Twins in 2014, when in point of fact, the stated strategy #1 goal was focused particularly on getting Meyer through a healthy complete year along with continued development of his third pitch (the pitch which accounted for much of his command/control issues). *** As I said in my post, the jump to AA is the most difficult. If Berrios continues his 2014 trajectory, I'll be happy to move him above Meyer- especially if Meyer regresses. The problems for Berrios are curiously similar to Meyer, but at the other end of the tape measure, as there are also few examples of shorter-statured SP aces. And though I know we both agree that they are close in their prospect status, without a decent amount of data in the upper minors, Meyer deserves the nod.

Comparison of Meyer to Johnson minor league stats to the exact same age (Meyer 3 years/Johnson 4 years). Does Meyer's control, relatively speaking, really suck? (remember, he was adding a new pitch in 2014):: Meyer IP 363.2 ERA 3.14 WHIP 1.232 H/9 7.4 BB/9 3.7 K/9 10.4 BB/K 2.84 Johnson IP 400.1 ERA 3.57 WHIP 1.551 H/9 6.8 BB/9 7.14 K/9 9.6 BB/K 1.35 MLB.com has the Twins 3 SP prospects bunched together, but I think close to just about right, Meyer is listed in the top 10 RH prospects and grades out just above Stewart and Berrios. Also note that Meyer has not one, but two out pitches that outrank either of Stewart's or Berrios' top two pitches: Meyer- rank 29 FB 70 SL 65 CU 50 Overall 60 Berrios- rank 32 FB 60 CB 55 CU 55 Overall 55 Stewart-rank 36 FB 65 SL 60 CB 50 CU 50 Overall 55 http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2015/#list=prospects

3 levels, yes, but let's not pretend that Berrios has even mastered AA yet. Of his 140 IP in 2014, only around 40 of those were in the upper minors, and just the one game/ 3 IP in AAA. And quite frankly, his numbers in the upper minors were much less impressive, ie, his K/9 dropped from 10.20 in A+ ball to 6.20 in AA. I expect he will do well this season, but let's not start organizing around the exact date-certain for the Berrios parade from Twin Cities International to Target Field quite yet.

Time to disabuse ourselves of the notion that the past culture will carry over too much. I have a feeling that the days of the default Gardy batting order "strategies" are a thing of the past. I expect data-based decision-making regarding the lineup from this day forward.

Yeah, I'm all over the Rosario-seizing-the-opportunity scenario. I have little hope, and I hope Molitor has little patience, in what promises to be a train wreck in the OF. Rosario's strong fall AFL performance could be the jumping-off point for a great career leap forward in 2015. Rosario has historically been a fast starter in his minor league career. His lifetime MiLB split in April is .337/.406/..508/.914. Rosario has the chance to leave a strong impression in ST- couple that with a break-out start in Chattanooga and the strong likelihood of moribund performance in CF, or even at one of the corners- and Rosario could punch his MLB ticket like Santana did last year.

Concur, strongly. Nothing convincing has been written in the Berrios and Stewart write-ups that makes either Stewart or Berrios appear to have earned them the better chance to be an Ace over Meyer. Their relative youth seems to be the main supporting plank in vaulting them ahead of Meyer. Nick's mention of Willie Banks, the former 1st round, #3 pick, once ranked as Baseball America's #13 prospect, should be the operative cautionary tale here. Banks dominated the minors until he reached AA. Stewart may be close in raw talent to Meyer, but he also has yet to dominate above Rookie League, and he seems to have more issues to overcome than Meyer (health, arm strength, lack of experience, attitude). Berrios has the potential problems that come with obvious physical size disadvantages. Moreover, he has yet to prove to be a dominant pitcher above A+ ball. It would be awesome if Berrios gets the call to the Twins by July, but he's not even on the 40-man yet, and still has a high hurdle to climb in Chattanooga, let alone to leap over all the other pitchers ahead of him on the depth chart. While they both have tremendous potential- (and not to say that I don't love them as prospects... and in 2015 they may yet prove to surpass Meyer's potential)- to place both higher than Meyer at this point is still a speculative bet on the come. FWIW, while no one should say that Meyer is destined for Randy Johnson's career, but his comparable numbers at the exact same age to Johnson, to the same point in his career, are far superior. With the likelihood of some continued sharpening of consistency of his release point, and further refining of his third pitch, both in the offing (and hopefully a new pitching coach will accelerate that developmental continuum), it is quite reasonable to say that Meyer has clearly shown he could eventually become a #1/#2 SP. In summation, as exciting as they both are, the definitive argument has yet to be made that the other two are, in fact, superior prospects to Meyer.

I've got a guy you definitely need to Friend: http://www.ratemyprofessors.com/ShowRatings.jsp?tid=1891176

In the game I saw on August 3rd, it appeared he was guiding (and tipping?) the change-up- definitely a work in progress. But when he had a couple of long innings, it looked like the FB would sail on him- up or out of the zone- his delivery looks very smooth on both the slider and FB, but perhaps the control lapses are due to the varying release point? It looked like he was getting pinched by the ump on the slider, it looked like a devastating pitch from behind home plate. After the first of the long innings, he came back the next inning and was unhittable, hitting 99 MPH effortlessly a couple times, throwing almost nothing but strikes. He was automatically pulled at around 90 pitches, with 2 outs in the 6th, but he never looked in trouble, winded, sore-armed, sore-shouldered. Just a couple fits of lack of control. For the game, he had 8Ks, 3BBs, 2 weakly hit singles. As I said at the time, he was a man amongst boys.

....or drop down to #5 in the rankings.

When making these rankings... what is the right balance?, and who/how many of the TD staff determine?... upside ceiling versus floor as the final criterion for prospect ranking/placement. Is Meyer still the best combination of stuff and talent, plus with the closest acceding proximity to the majors, of all the arms in the Twins system for an Ace-level career, or not? If he is (and I think a strong case can be made that that is in fact, the case), then shouldn't he still be in his #3 spot? Quite frankly, a permanent future role for Meyer in the pen makes the original trade for Span largely an overall failure. OTOH, I concur with both of you, following the Cardinals model, Meyer needs to be up with the big club in a relief role, much sooner rather than later, assuming he doesn't win the #5 spot in ST.

I'm not overanxious to give them too much credit on Santana. They were actually as wrong on him as on Hicks, just in the opposite way. Santana did have a terrific ST, it was obvious that Florimon could not play and that Santana should be brought north on a trial basis, if/until Florimon regained his health and/or semblance of playing ability. But then, only when circumstances were forced on them by continuously disastrous moves concerning Bartlett and a parade of claimed/lost CFers, did Santana rather accidentally/inadvertently become the answer at that position. (Admittedly, his MiLB track record wasn't much help in predicting outcomes, but Santana's sparkling rookie results should have been less of a surprise, and an "easy call" to the braintrust as compared to the average informed fan). In this case, I hope their high opinion on Rosario is correct... the situation in the OF for 2015- is still pretty thin and shaky, at best. Sconnie said it correctly in the post above, the high opinion on Rosario could just as easily be due to the lack of solid readily available alternatives in CF. I have a feeling the MLB opportunity will inevitably be his for the taking with even just a decent start in AA or AAA, but for him to come in and solidly steal the spotlight like Santana did in 2014, is much more of a wish than a forecast. Down the road, presumably, LF opens up in either late 2015 or the start of 2016, with Hunter gone, and Rosario getting the first crack at the spot, with Buxton taking over in CF.

We don't need Heyman's word to establish Buxton's potential, it's pretty universally accepted that the kid has the requisite tools to be the game's best CF at some point in his career, it's now up to Buck to prove that 2014 was just a bump in the road and he quickly gets back on track from his (justified) lofty expectations. Trout will eventually pass the torch to someone... And while he may be the game's best hitter for quite a while longer, it might come sooner rather than later that he's no longer the best all-around pure CFer: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/has-mike-trout-gotten-slower/

Just "seems allergic to"? Isn't it more like showing Count Dracula a crucifix? I agree with all of your points, but how often do the Twins promote (short of emergency) without a prize prospect "mastering" the previous level. Clearly, Rosario hasn't done so yet. I can easily envision an opening day Rochester OF roster replete with AAAAs plus Ortiz.

Really good point taken. But we might need to add Torii to the defensive suspect list, as well. If the OF defense proves disastrous early-on, I can easily see Rosario getting the first call, and even possibly to CF. Hunter or Arcia to DH, and eventually, some combination in the OF of Rosario LF-CF/Buxton CF/Santana/Plouffe/Mauer and either Hunter or Arcia- but not both at the same time, Hunter getting shipped out in July really opens the door for both Rosario and Buxton to move into two of those spots. I hope Rosario rises to the challenge and seizes the opportunity just right there in front of him.

With a birthday of July 8, 1994, he's actually 20, and closer to 21 than 19. His current repertoire is only going to carry him so far in the minors. I still like his potential a lot, but without at minimum, an average major league breaking ball, his value as a major league starter is pretty problematic.

Finally, we can foresee a Twins system soon to be reminiscent of Boston, where the Red Sox have multiple major-league-ready options at the ready at AAA Pawtucket or in AA; with all of the push of talent from underneath, much of the Twins AAAA "filler" will soon have no spots to fill. Shane, would you care to forecast how many from this year's group of position prospects "graduate" for good going into 2016. Even if the top 4 all take care of business in 2015, will they all be assured of starting spots with the big club in April 2016? What's most impressive is even if the top 4 all make it, your remaining list remains impressive. Perhaps no longer in the Top 3-5 farm systems in baseball, but still chock full of potential major league starters.