jokin

And it isn't just fire-lighting or culture-building (as important as they are), FWIW, Gardy actually has the team playing more competitively this year based on a year-over-year run-differential basis; But.... in addition to the value of an attention-getting, "New Voice", a new manager can bring new in-game-strategies and philosophies, which would ideally include someone who intrepidly embraces a more sabremetric approach, to address the obvious areas of deficiency, such as the pitching woes, and he also can introduce new preparation and training regimens, as what is being done now in these areas has, based on the continued W-L woes, by and large failed on almost all fronts.

Well.... now the three teams that have been nearly universally disparaged by our TD community, for varied combinations of gross mismanagement and flagrant insensitivity towards their fanbase, have lapped the Twins on the field. Like the Twins.... the Cubs, Astros and Marlins had three straight seasons from 2011-13 with 90+ losses, and all three are more clearly back on track than the Twins and have demonstrated marked W-L improvement in 2014, the Twins, not so much. I'm hoping that "stay the course" and "help is on the way" won't be the catch-phrases for the 2015 Twins, as they desperately try to avoid a "Five-Peat", but I'm not holding my breath

I think there's a decent chance that Michael moves on up to Rochester to play 2nd, and possibly some SS if Florimon leaves the organization. Regarding Kepler.....It was really a tale of two seasons for Max at Ft Myers. Perhaps he was (finally) free of injuries, perhaps he altered his approach at the plate, or perhaps he's finally maturing, or maybe all three, as the contrast in these numbers is stark: April 1-July 11: K% 22.5% OPS .622 ISO .099 wRC+ 80 July 13-Sep 8: K% 11.0% OPS .835 ISO .142 wRC+ 140 Max is on the (roster) clock, I'd really like to think that July 13 was the jump-off point to the acceleration phase in his career trajectory. I hope that both he and the club have the sense of urgency to build on these last 2 months and produce a very solid offseason, starting with the AFL, and looking to not be left behind the rest of the Miracle championship crew going into 2015.

And with solid performances from three guys going to the AFL- 1) Max Kepler plays 1B/OF in place of Gonzalez and, 2) Jake Reed joins the six you listed in the relief corps- that is a potentially unreal 7-man relief crew. 3) And I would assume Jason Adam would be the 5th starter?

I've said it before, but it bears repeating.... the core of this Miracle group is due for promotion to AA in 2015, and joining them, at least to start out the season, will likely be Sano, Buxton and Polanco. This promises to be a ridiculously good lineup for AA, with a possible scenario of legit major-league-starter prospects at every position in the field, and a relief pitcher crew that very well may be the best in all of the minor leagues at any level (and you might even see Reed added to this group- he seems way advanced for A-level ball!). And AA is the level where players are literally a phone call away from moving to the Twins, finally! Congratulations, guys.

I originally thought this was an obvious truth, but after looking at the numbers, I think that 75% number is a little high. First the good news, one area that has clearly improved, in some cases dramatically, in all of the various measures- (BsR, Spd, UBR, wSB)- is baserunning, and I believe that is Molitor's domain. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=8,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 Presumably, some of the obvious running gaffes we have witnessed are countered by the overall improved team numbers, which indicate that a smarter, and yet more aggressive stance has been taken by the club and been a part of the greater run production in 2014 vs. 2013 (+0.64 runs/game). The means that the offense has produced 4.43 Runs/Game versus 3.79 Runs/Game in 2013 ,with a slight increase in wOBA, from .307 to .317, so a bit of good news there, as well. Back to pitching- and it's slightly counter-intuitive to relate to these numbers based on what we've witnessed this year- but when you compare team stats for SPs and All Pitchers in ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, K%, K/9, BB%, BB/9, HR/9, IP/Start, there are small, to slightly better than small, improvements in every single category but one. And that one is Team ERA, which is 4.62 this year, versus 4.55 in 2013. And yet, the team has given up 4.49 runs per 9 innings, versus only 3.81 runs per 9 innings in 2013. The RPs, on the other hand, have shown small, but not insignificant drops in performance in all of the pertaining categories, with the exception of a slight improvement in HR/9. So, a relative decrease in RP performance, a drop in the LOB% from 70.2% in 2013 to 68.7% in 2014, along with some pretty shaky defense at times (IFs & DHs in the OF, which is largely on Gardy) seems to account for the 0.69 Runs/9 innings increase. So.... Anderson was unable to coax significant improvement from the returning staff of starters and relievers as a whole, while Hughes makes the SP numbers look better than they actually were. If he gets credit for turning Hughes around and making Gibson at least serviceable, he must take the blame for the bad performance and performance reversals from most of the rest of the staff. But maybe not the whole 75% enchilada blame......as meanwhile..... the shaky defense gets a portion of the blame as well, DRS in 2014 is -67... versus DRS of -10 in 2013.... rSB of -7 in 2014 versus rSB of +3 in 2013. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=8,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

This definitely seems more plausible, and sensical, than a March, 2015 Santana demotion..

Assuming Mauer plays almost all of the games remaining in 2014, he will have averaged 115 games per season over the last four years. How many more games should we ask Mauer to "easily sit" @ this number which tells us alot: $23M/yr? I would argue that there is another solution, in that, Arcia could DH more, Mauer could play more OF, Vargas could play more 1B and Pinto could catch more.

There is no way that Santana starts out in AAA to start the 2015 season. The only question is how much time he spends at SS and CF with the Twins.

This "solution" is also incredibly oversimplified. Gardenhire, is the Captain of the ship, which means he is responsible for guiding them from port to port, through his chosen subordinate officers (the only subordinate apparently thrust upon him is Paul Molitor). The job of his subordinates is to execute his vision for "success" (I'd settle for ANY incremental signs of team "improvement"***), and have his players demonstrate measurable increases in performance, relative to their potential capabilities ( while more and more, it seems the only major thing asked of the players is to "get after it" and "like" playing for the Captain ). There is very, very little to show over the last 4 years, of an overarching "Twins' Way" strategy that has been employed that will ultimately lead the team up and out of this bottom-dwelling muddy morass. Gardy chose Anderson originally way back when, and even though the pitching has clearly failed over and over in the last four seasons, he stubbornly won't make a change, even if you are "ready for a change there," Gardy may not have all of the responsibility for four consecutive 95+ loss seasons, but my goodness!, it's equally inaccurate to completely exonerate him from his captaining of 4 consecutive shipwrecks. (Only Connie Mack and TK have done this bad and survived, and Mack couldn't fire himself). *** Year over year won-loss improvement through September 7: Miami + 16 Astros +16 Giants +14 Mwkee + 12 Cubs + 6 Wht Sox + 4 Twins ZERO

Great article, minor nitpick here-> Shafer just turned 28 this last week. Hicks turns 25 on October 2. Whatever the case, given how shorthanded in CF the Twins left themselves going into April last year, a 3-pronged CF approach seems likely to continue for the time being. Santana splits time in CF and SS, it also seems likely that Schafer has played well enough to earn a 25-man spot and split time in CF, and part time in the corners, starting out initially in April, 2015. And given Hicks' reticence about playing winter ball, he hasn't exactly ingratiated himself with management, even with a better approach at the plate in September. He has an option left, I can easily see him starting out next season in Rochester. The other possibility that few have seriously considered beyond a FA acquisition for a corner spot? Either Mauer or Plouffe-> Vargas getting more 1st base reps, Arcia getting more DH reps.

Concussion symptoms.

You call it a mountain out of nothing..... And I call it maximizing the 162 game schedule to continually try to accomplish something at improving the team for the long run, or why go through the pretense of calling anyone up in September?.... getting Polanco 27 days worth of major league atmosphere and a series of late-inning valuable reps at at least 3 different positions for someone whom the Twins regard as a prized prospect- over a minor league journeyman- seems pretty elementary to me. And don't get me wrong, Bernier earned his call-up, but with a reward paid off primarily by a comfortable seat in the dugout. Polanco, by stark contrast, has shown the aptitude to be a part of the long-term solution- and can directly benefit from continuing his Twins matriculation at the highest level available, and there's little doubt, he possibly could contribute as early as some time next season (and perhaps not at SS). Santana and Vargas now look like they can be part of the solution, why not give Polanco every opportunity to continue his progression and join them as soon as possible?

27 days at most, that definitely shouldn't be the make or break decision on a team en route to another 90+ loss season. I'm not calling for Polanco's immediate promotion- just a continued developmental exercise, as he has clearly shown in his call-ups that he has the moxy to quickly adapt to the highest level, and the willingness to continue the learning process. The SSs on this team have proven to be highly interchangeable anyways, and as in the case of Santana, it might be necessary, maybe likely, to call on one or more of them to play another position. That brings up a potential scenario where Polanco possibly duplicates in 2015 what Santana did this year, and is called up around the ASG to fill in at another position should Santana claim the SS spot, prove useful as a replacement at 3rd Base should Plouffe sustain injury or become trade bait, and always, of course, the possibility of a continued train wreck with the other CF contenders/pretenders. As we've seen the last three nights, there's no reason that Polanco couldn't have been inserted into late game situations, as others have, and benefited from the experience.

Dave St Peter.... Patient with fans?.... do you mean like the time he called out the fans on Twitter, something to the effect, "I can't believe all of this fan angst about the 25th man (Bartlett)." Yes...... A pre-game DSP vs. KO Funny Insult Slam-Off.... with Seinfeld as the umpire, Comic. Gold: http://www.olbermannwatch.com/images/baseballdiploma.jpg

Nope, not on this one. Seriously. A team digging out of a 290+ loss deficit for 3 seasons- going on 4 years now at a similar pace- of miasmic ineptitude, really doesn't allow a team to indulge in rewarding all the playing time that's been allotted this year to guys who clearly won't be part of the solution, and many of whom are now out of baseball altogether, or should be soon.

Yeah, building on the future with a 34-year-old minor league journeyman on the major league roster isn't the end of the world, but the term's usage fails badly to explain away why he's involved in taking valuable playing time for a team on a running streak of 4 straight season of 90+ losses.

Nope. And Bernier got 3 of his innings and 2 of his PAs tonight against Chicago.

Three problems with this, 1) I don't think he gets a lot of say about where he plays in the DWL. 2) Ryan has publicly committed in a lukewarm manner to Santana for the intermediate term at SS, which leaves Polanco looking for a place to play should that come to fruition- as I proscribed, frequent late-inning assignments at 2nd, 3rd and SS would mean he wouldn't need to be sitting on the bench. 3) Unless I'm completely off, and provided he isn't physically spent (certainly a possibility), isn't he likely scheduled for instructionals?, which means he's not getting this month off, so he might as well be getting some major league reps, if that's the case.

No one has said he dominated AA, I think it's general consensus in the Twins FO, based on his placement on the 40-man roster and his previous call-up, that Polanco's a comer in the Twins system. And I already gave a potential solution to your legitimate concern about available positions and playing time You ask if he could learn from a September call-up?. In return, I ask, will he learn any more from no call-up at all? And has it now come to this...? 27 days of service time in September, or even cut that in half to 14, and send him to instructionals the last 2 weeks of September, is that really the level of miserliness that a team going on four 90+ loss seasons should be concerned about?

Just a clarification there is absolutely no use of absolutes in the phrase I specifically used, "By age 28, the average player is already in their decline phase" Of course there are exceptions, but in the long-run, the studies show you increase your odds of success by having more younger players approaching their peak years at the ready, both in the pipeline, as well as producing at the major league level.

Yep, this sounds exactly right, with all the returning arms, plus Pelfrey, plus May and Meyer vying for rotation spots, plus the fact that the Twins were still bidding on an extra starter going into this season and may very well repeat that exercise this offseason, it would take a monumental string of TJ and shoulder breakdowns for Berrios to get close to the Twins before late July, at the absolute very earliest. My money is on that he starts out in New Britain and forces his way up to Rochester, just as he forced his way up from Ft Myers this year.

+1

"23 is not super young." Yeah, let's convince the Twins of that fact. But you left out Jordan and Detwiler from the current staff, and the fact that the Nats have demonstrated this type of earlier call-up activity than the Twins and have sustained SP ERA success for the last 5 years, not just this year (and even with bad FA misses like Haren included in those ERA numbers). The main point I was making was the other pitchers that I mentioned beyond Strasburg, for the most part either have, or are still positively contributing to the Nats, or were much-more-quickly-than-the-Twins, moved up, or out, in trade while still young. I'm suggesting that bringing in a different perspective in philosophies on pitcher development from an organization that has found continued and sustained success in just this area for all these young arms now in the Twins system would be prudent. And hiring Randy Johnson as a specific special consultant to Alex Meyer for a year or two wouldn't be a bad idea, either.

With all due respect, I don't think I am changing the subject, in point of fact. And while I agree that the it's possible that the FO knows what it's doing here, I think it's prudent to look at the Twins recent results, and then to look at other clubs who are not just succeeding, but flourishing, with a much different approach than the Twins (which includes calling up the other 9 pitchers you ignored in your comparison, but of whom I specifically highlighted in contrast to the Twins philosophy for any pitcher, let alone Meyer).