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jokin

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Everything posted by jokin

  1. jokin
    Spending his peak physical years in the minors "doesn't matter at all"? Beg to differ. I don't like the Twins automatic default to the "take the full 6 years" approach to development, and I'm not a big fan of them having their guys wasting bullets putting up ridiculous numbers at a competitive level they clearly can gain little from. Burdi is far from the perfect comp to Hildenberger, but I would tend to think Burdi would have benefited and accelerated his career track by starting out last season in Ft Myers and then on to New Britain to finish up (or done 3 levels). It's quite possible through the heightened challenge, he would have garnered more experience, feedback and data to put to good use in the offseason on getting more advanced hitters out, and possibly avoided some of this year's bumps in the roads in the process. Obviously, Hildengerger was only a 22nd rounder, but Mike Fiers of the Brewers was drafted in the same round, exact same height and weight as Hildenberger- but one year older, while playing at a clearly lower college competitive level- Nova Southeastern vs. Cal-Berkeley- as in the case of Hildenberger. Of course, no pitcher is quite the same, but as Fiers dominated the minors like Hildenberger has, he was quickly advanced to the next level- 3 levels his rookie year, 2 levels (A+ and AA) plus the AFL his second year. AA and AAA his third year, with a September call-up in that 3rd year as a pro. I'd hate to needlessly wait to a 2019 debut for Hildenberger at 28.5 years of age, if, if he could help the Twins as early as late September, 2016 at age 25.5 (I'm sure he wouldn't like it either). What if he can start meaningfully helping the club at age 26, instead? That matters, alot. The only way to find out for certain if he can or not, is to tweak the developmental philosophy a bit. I would think a guy sticking around for half a season and producing ungodly GB (56%), LD (9%) and K (34%) rates to go with a 0.54 ERA is just spinning his wheels.
  2. jokin
    Hildenberger is 24.5 years of age- 2 years too old for A-ball. There were health issues in college, but the Twins must not think too much of him as a prospect, even after this level of dominance. If he was, it seems like he should have been moved up already- the ridiculous numbers and his age suggest he should be a guy who plays through 3 levels this year. 24.5 is the average age for pitchers in AA.
  3. jokin
    The team needs offensive production, agreed. But they also need a lock-down CF. He's already major league elite on defense and on the basepaths. I highly doubt that there's any threat to Buxton's career being sabotaged by this call-up. He's largely been facing some very tough pitchers in his first 5 games. Let's give it some more time, this kid has the will to succeed, I'm guessing that he will make adjustments and start laying off more of the breaking balls out of the zone.
  4. jokin
    Not sure that's true. Hold on there, Cowboy! Let's remember that Kepler has been on some hot streaks this year, but this latest one was AFTER Buxton was promoted. Besides Buxton's elite-level defense, Buxton definitely outhit Kepler during the time they were on the team together, here's the hit comp from 4/22 until the Buck call-up: Buxton 4/22-6/12: Slash .304/.372/.529/(.901) ISO .225 wOBA .406 Kepler 4/22-6/12: Slash .305/.361/.491/(.852) ISO .186 wOBA .389
  5. jokin
    But just one season for Buck. I'm thinking it's going to be an ongoing issue for Kepler- he missed more time again this year in April- until it isn't. It could simply be a matter of growing into his body and additional weight training that helps make the difference.
  6. jokin
    Isn't that going to be the main issue for Kepler going forward? He simply hasn't been able to avoid the injury-bug, seems like he's always been on and off of the DL or rehabbing something. The most games he's played so far in one season was 102 last year in Ft Myers.
  7. jokin
    Having seen Kepler play in early May, he appears to have made an adjustment to his approach at the plate, starting last season. He definitely is swinging more for the gaps than the fences, and using all fields more- and it is a very tight, sweet stroke. He looked to be a very fine athlete among the group of some pretty incredible athletes. I'm not sure if he is faster than Walker- probably so, but he was playing 1B while Walker was in the OF, and while Walker looked fine out there, Kepler's definitely more polished. Disagree on Sano, he would be fine in the OF, his arm would make up for some of the miscues, but there are definitely much better options defensively going forward. But still, the net tradeoff in offensive production still would probably favor Sano playing in RF if the Twins are unwilling to clear out the current corner infielders. One thing for sure, there isn't room enough for all of the guys coming up from Chattanooga, plus the current crop on the major league roster.
  8. jokin
    Not disputing that Schwarber has had the superior season. He definitely has, great scouting by the Cubs for defying convention in last year's draft. My point was more along the lines that since Epstein is giving his guy a shot at a taste of the show, and with Sano matching or surpassing him since he's gotten himself going, that it might be worth a more considered look at Sano sooner rather than later, as well. And since then, it seems like the Twins are ready to pull the trigger fairly soon. In the long run, though, I'm still pretty confident that Sano is likely going to prove that he's the superior prospect
  9. jokin
    Nothing against Cole Johnson, but wasn't the Oliveros suspension a great time to give the younger guy, who also happens to b the top performer and better prospect, Zach Jones, a shot at AAA?
  10. jokin
    Kind of optimistic, aren't you? He's never advanced 2 levels. Why would the Twins start now? Plus, below this class at AA, there's not much deserving of a call-up.
  11. jokin
    Looks like Paul Molitor tends to disagree with you, or perhaps he's one of the "impatient folks", too? http://www.startribune.com/miguel-sano-could-be-called-up-soon-molitor-says/307657841/ And actually the Schwarber comps works nicely, both don't have an established position yet, both appear to be looking at the options for each, and possibly considering if someone blocking each could be replaced, with a reultant net upgrade from either.
  12. jokin
    Uhh, you really didn't refute much here. Sano hadn't faced live pitching for 18 months. In addition, I posted on the Sano thread, after seeing him play in early May, Sano had not yet fully adapted to the conditions at the home ballpark. The park has a 20 foot OF fence and sits atop a hill with prevailing winds blowing in from LF and CF. In the game I was at, Sano had 4 hard hit fly balls right at the wall, clearly knocked down by the wind. As I documented in the other thread, since then, Sano and no doubt, Chad Allen, have put in significant adjustments to his approach- his FB% has dropped from 44% in April to 30% in May/June, while his LD% has soared from 12% in April to 26% in May/June. Meanwhile, his OPS was a paltry .684 in April, while it's .983 in June. The pitchers have tried to adjust to his adjustments, to no avail- Sano was getting 51% of his pitches in the zone in April, in June it's down to 34%, and yet his production has soared, along with a return towards his career power numbers- which have gone from ISO .222 in April, ISO .253 in May, to ISO .275 in June. In short, Sano is back, with a vengeance, and has slightly outperformed Schwarber since April 30.
  13. jokin
    +1 That's The Ticket!
  14. jokin
    Huh??? What comp???? Sano and Schwarber both play in the Southern League.
  15. jokin
    You really have to throw out everything before April 30. The guy was coming off of an 18 month layoff from live pitching. Despite the lost season he's currently eclipsing Schwarber over 40-some games, with increasingly stronger power output. Sano, like Schwarber doesn't have a position yet at the major league level. But also like Schwarber, he, and circumstances, have forced the Twins to take a look at his hitting tool in the lower-stress DH role, plus giving him a chance to see what he needs to work on, both at the plate, and in the field.
  16. jokin
    It's more than just the last 10 games, though... or even the last 37 games. I've documented, and just updated, in the Sano How Soon is Now? thread that he's been performing as the best in the Southern League since April 30, as well as vs. the best performer over the whole season. And the power output is surging. http://twinsdaily.com/topic/18548-miguel-sano-how-soon-is-now/page-11?do=findComment&comment=354749 Sano's numbers since April 30: PA 168 Slash: .303/.396/.577/(.973) ISO .274 XBH 20 HR 9 Schwarber's numbers, 4/30-6/14: PA 172 Slash: 295/.427/.525/(.952) ISO .230 XBH 14 HR 9 Schwarber is going to be DHing vs. the Twins this weekend. Why not make it Sano vs. Schwarber?
  17. jokin
    When you won't PH Vargas for Suzuki (vs LHP BA .224/OPS .595) in that last AB (Vargas vs LHP BA .349/OPS .810), you know they've got zero confidence in Kennys right now. Time for Sano coming up and batting in either the 5-hole or Clean-up.
  18. jokin
    Walker had 4 hits today, 3 of which were on the second pitch thrown. In his defense, Walker is averaging 4.17 P/PA, which is ranked 5th in the Southern (Harrison is 4th at 4.18). And he's seeing lots of strikes- 64.2% strike rate. And not enough contact- 62.7% contact rate, which is 2nd worst in the Southern. And not surprisingly, a 17.9% Whiff rate (3rd in Sl), with a KSw rate of 25.7% (also 3rd in SL). And of course, he leads the Southern with a 36.7% K rate with only a 6.5% BB rate. Those are AA numbers that seem very hard to translate to the bigs.
  19. jokin
    And why not? The smartest minds in the game have looked at the data and employed it successfully. Maddon, now with the Cubs, and before him LaRussa. http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/28/tony-la-russa-and-the-logic-behind-the-lineup/
  20. jokin
    I was typing while you were posting, so I included your post to add desk-pounding emphasis to make the point. I'll still make this a separate post because, in the wake of the Gilmartin decision, I think the Twins need to think about their LHP prospect options a little more creatively. I've never been a big fan of Rogers as a major league SP. Yesterday's performance was certainly impressive, as the S/WB team leads the IL in BA and OPS. But even with that performance, he's only gotten to the 7th inning 6 times in 13 starts. And one of the prime reasons he did well yesterday was that 7 of his 8 Ks were against LHB, and collectively, the 4 S/WB LHBs went 0 for 14 against him. He practically has had complete domination of lefties, throughout his career. Consider, Rogers v. LHB: FIP 1.71 GB% 57.9% K% 30% K/9 10.22 K/BB 9.6 BA .206 OPS .499 Think I'm padding his stats by including the lower minor league levels? Think again. Rogers vs. LHB in AAA, 2015: FIP 1.18 GB% 55.6% K% 33% K/9 10.05 K/BB 32 BA 170 OPS ..367 See that 32? That's right. 32 Ks and 1 BB. Here's your replacement for Duensing. Rogers is bound to pick up at least a couple ticks on his FB in a relief role. Plus he's 6'3" and still only 24 years old.
  21. jokin
    E-Town numbers were pretty ordinary, but he's been pretty extraordinary ever since, when he was fully healthy and in the case of 2015, after he'd completely shaken off the rust. Immediate Superstar at A ball, here's his first month: .383/.504/.681/(1.185) OPS+ 225 He had a "slow" start in his first month in A+ ball, showing "only" an .809 OPS and OPS+ of 129, but he really came on from that point, here's his full first 2 months line at Ft Myers (in the toughest MiLB for hitters): .337/.427/.493/(.919) OPS+ 164 It's hard to hold 2014 against him or to use it as a gauge for his adjustment period to a new level, he never was really healthy again after sustaining his first wrist injury in ST, and of course, his season went completely off the cliff, injury-wise, from there. All that being said, I would look for the majority of his early hits starting out his career to be of the infield hit variety. The good news is that his career high in LD% has been this year, but the bad news is his contact numbers haven't been all that great overall. But... the contact #s and his BB% have taken a big spike upwards, like his other averages, over the last month. Long story short, I look for Buck's first hit to be deep in the hole at SS. And maybe a walk, plus a SB and run scored.
  22. jokin
    Much like with Santana last year, a bizarre set of circumstances forced this move (prematurely in the Twins' eyes)..... But I'll take it any way it can get Buck here.... now let's see what it's gonna take to get Sano next Meanwhile, still only a two man bench tomorrow, if Hicks goes to the DL and Hunter back, still only a 3 man bench for 2 games in St Louis.
  23. jokin
    LOL. Agree on most of your points. And Buck definitely needs to move, he's champing at the bit right now- reaching base 3 more times last night- I'm just more confident that Buxton can handle the jump from AA far better than Hicks. But certainly, a cup of coffee in AAA wouldn't hurt.
  24. jokin
    Reusse rarely gets early scoops, but he's riding that pony for at least the last 13 days. Let's see if he finally gets one right.
  25. jokin
    Since 2013, Hicks has always been a transitional bridge player to Buxton. His future likely lies as a 4th OF, as his hit tool, although improved over 2013-14, is still only around hitting with an OPS+ 72- and this in his third attempt at the big leagues. Contrast that with Rule 5 pick, Delino DeShields Jr, who is making the jump from AA to the majors and has an OPS+ of 106. Buxton is a better prospect than DeShields, and ZiPS projects him to hit OPS+ 95.
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