Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jokin

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    11,852

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    8

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jokin

  1. jokin
    Not all of us know. Nothing is more annoying than when people write about Twins "youngsters" making their MLB debuts, such as Achter and O'Rourke at age 27, Thielbar at 26 and Darnell and Meyer at 25- when it's quite possible that, at least physically, their best years are already behind them, wasted in some minor league ballpark. Tyler Duffey was wildly successful when finally debuting a few months short of his 25th birthday- but why was he demoted back to AA for another 53 innings to start out 2015 after having a very successful season in 2014 across 3 levels? And then only called up when the Twins were absolutely desperate for a starting arm- and then being shocked to see him become their most effective SP? Isn't it fairly obvious that Rogers (also soon 25) probably will make a pretty good RP- possibly should have been called up to fill an RP role when Duensing and Perkns faltered- but a very marginal MLB SP? Sure, not all of those guys mentioned here have the high level of quality stuff of the most-recent draftees, but sadly, the newer group of "power arms" that the Twins have focused on acquiring, appear to be on the same go-slow career-progression-track- and emptying a good chunk of the bullets in their ammo belts before they can put it to good MLB-level use. (Has anyone done studies on what the team-average percentage of one-year-or-longer disabling pitcher arm injuries for young prospects is? Are the Twins typical, or on the high side? I would have to think the percentages are off-the-charts higher for pitchers who already had a history of arm problems in college.)
  2. jokin
    Nice way to make your AFL debut, kid. Garver's walk, HR and 2B were off of 3 different pitchers, all with AA experience, including the double off of former 1st round pick, Peter Tago, who had performed the best of the aforementioned three in AA. Way to send a ittle AFL debut message... (about what you think of your Twins prospect status downgrade?). Seth, any reason given why Burdi and Reed haven't thrown yet?
  3. jokin
    And a team that drafts him in Rule V can pick Michael with confidence... they know they can 60-day DL him to keep him from cluttering their 25-man all season- right after he sustains his annual injury sometime before or after April 30.
  4. jokin
    I disagree with Seth on holding Turner back, unless he completely bombs in Arizona. Ideally in my mind, give Garver a half season as the #1 guy in Chatty, and then put them together in Rochester, both knocking on the door simultaneously. FWIW, I did a little digging, and I think it's somewhat important to note that the overall pitching in the FSL performed markedly better this season for Garver to have to face, than last year when Turner was in the League. The already-very-stingy FSL was even moreso in 2015. For all levels A and above, the League as a whole was in 1st place in R/G, ERA, WHIP, H/9 and HR/9. (The numbers were all markedly improved over the FSL pitchers in 2014). Here are the total batting comps in the FSL. Pretty telling, especially the power drop: 2015- Slash .248/.313/.337/.650 HR 599 2014- Slash .257/.325/.371/.696 HR 873 Besides the other issues that Garver dealt with, perhaps the change in the Pitch/Hit balance of power had a role to play in his statistical drop-off, as well.
  5. jokin
    Did Lebron pull an MJ?
  6. jokin
    I guess it depends on what the Twins want- they're the ones pushing him through- the bat doesn't appear to be too much of a concern to them. Interestingly, Turner's the one that skipped a level- and they've made a point of keeping the two separated since draft day. They obviously have shown that they will want him sooner at the MLB level than Garver (if ever, in the latter case). Based on this, I'm assuming that if Turner performs credibly enough in AZ (above the Mendoza line?), he'll start out in Rochester, and the same result for Garver would presumably mean he starts in Chattanooga. If you've watched Turner bat, it's been mostly Butera-sque slow-drip agony. Turner's full-year @ AA: Slash .223/.322/.306 wRC+ 83 Butera's full-year @ AA: Slash .219/.308/.354 wRC+ 80 Turner wins the comp, but only barely, yes, he's little younger, and Butera had a 1/2 year previous AA experience, but there's little thus far- other than his plate discipline- to suggest he can even expect to hit at close to MLB average at the position.
  7. jokin
    Definitely not now-or-never for Turner, I have a feeling that the Twins consider him the golden boy that they have big plans for- to gradually ascend into the position full-time. Sickels holds out some hope for Garver, as do I- I think there's a good chance he can get his numbers back up in the Southern League, especially if he gets some help in the rest of the lineup- but, back to Sickels, he was generally overall disappointed with his entire group of "sleepers", except for 2 guys and "the catchers with a glove." I hope he was referring to Garver with that closing comment. It's very encouraging to hear you confirm that his defense is upticking, and that he's developing into a pitcher's catcher. My bigger concern is that it seems like all of the scouting services have dropped Garver off of their Twins Top Prospects radar- which means that to them anyway, the Twins now have all of their near-future catching hopes in one basket. Obviously, the Twins, or the AFL, set themselves up with a rather unusual arrangement- if it's something the Twins pushed- that would be an indication that Garver is still in their long-term plans. It would be ideal if these two guys generate some friendly competition and push each other onto the Twins roster for good by 2017. If Garver has a hot first half, perhaps he can join Turner in Rochester to close out the season. Having Suzuki vest his contract over to 2017 would be sub-optimal, if not disastrous, for their post-season chances- his positive intangibles are going to become increasingly outweighed by his lack of contribution on both offense and defense. (Terry needs to sign AJ this year to ensure that vesting doesn't happen, with perhaps Turner getting a few call-ups/tryouts throughout the year).
  8. jokin
    Garver seems to be falling off of some Twins top prospect lists, but John Sickels just came out with a review of his top sleeper prospect list to start out the season, and he had this to say about Garver's season at Ft Myers: Garver did have a wRC+ of 121 (that would be close to Top 10 in the FSL) in the second half versus 111 in the first half, with added power (all his homers were in the 2nd half). Perhaps the combination of his season-ending concussion in 2014 and adjusting to the new Miracle hitting coach slowed down his offense a bit coming out of ST. Good to hear that his defense picked up in 2015. While it's getting closer to now-or-never for Garver, this will be a nice little head-to-head competition for both Garver and Turner, and maybe a little extra Fall drama while we search for some answers to the Twins' catching future. I have to think that Turner has the inside track with the superior defensive chops (athletically/physically, there's no question he's better than Suzuki- right now), but I've got to say, in the one game I saw him play- there was still just a bit too much of Butera in that swing of his.
  9. jokin
    What "talent" is left in the organization and developmentally ready for the challenge? I've been scratching my head on who they could/should have sent instead. Seriously, the pickings were either kind-of slim/redundant: SPs- Berrios, Gonsalves, Stewart, Batts (No Way- Too many IPs/other health concerns/not ready) Buxton (Again)? Kepler (Again)? Meyer (Again)? Chargois? I think he earned it, but he really falls in the category above for the SPs Melotakis? Was scheduled for the AFL in 2014, but coming back from TJ, see above. Peterson? Goodrum? Gordon? I'd have liked to see this aggressive move. Harrison? Darnell? You can see I'm really stretching at this point...
  10. jokin
    I'm sure the Blue Jays would vote for this option. That way, Arcia can showcase his talents for his future spot in Toronto, after the Twins waive him, and he then becomes Chris Colabello's platoon partner.
  11. jokin
    Quick update. Three Twins prospects got in the game. All did quite well. 1) ABW batted 7th, had 2 walks in 4 PAs and scored a run. 2) Sturart Turner batted 9th, went 1-2 with an RBI double plus 2 walks. 3) Trevor Hildenburger pitched 2 innings, battling through 2 Scottsdale errors behind him, 5 GB outs, 2 GB singles, 0 FBs hit, 2 strikeouts- including #45-ranked Rockies prospect, Raimel Tapia.
  12. jokin
    Yep. Still scratching my head on what went down the last week of July, 2014. Ryan had a young, still-rebuilding team with glaring holes, and an expendable piece at catcher on a hot run at the plate, that might have made a nice insurance policy on a contender flush with expendable assets- maybe could have gotten a B-/C+ prospect or perhaps as part of a package, gotten one or two controllable pitchers in trade. Was it Gardy who still carried enough weight who insisted that Suzuki HAD to be re-signed? Or, does Ryan after all these years still not understand the career/outlier years of established vets and the laws of regression when considering contract extensions?
  13. jokin
    Absolutely not. His oxygen intake is just fine- his CF defense will soon be elite level, speed-wise, he's as good as it gets in baseball on the basepaths. As Parker noted, based on the last road trip, all of Buck's hard work in the cage and video-room this month with Bruno has just started to bear fruit I'm with Roy Smalley on this issue, wasting another half year in Rochester might be the worst thing for delaying his development. His major issue right now is his need to recognize major league pitches and pitching patterns, not junk stuff thrown mostly by AAAA journeyman.The sooner he learns how to start avoiding all of those 0-2 counts against major league pitchers, the sooner he's on the way to stardom. I get that the Twins might hold him back starting out in 2016, but only for financial reasons. He should be up and starting in CF as soon as the service time issues are resolved to the Twins satisfaction. I would hate to see them needlessly waste a roster spot for an extra veteran OFer they don't really need, and lose a prospect in the process. (Perhaps keeping Buxton in AAA just for a few weeks to start out the season will give Arcia one last chance to turn things around.)
  14. jokin
    Well, certainly another half year at Rochester isn't going to solve Buxton's developmental dilemma.
  15. jokin
    I think tonight was the night to steal the old Indians stadium theme song: Get up boys and hit 'em one more time We may be losing now but we can't stop trying We need just one victory and we're on our way Prayin' for it all day and fightin' for it all night Give us just one victory, it will be alright We may feel about to fall but we go down fighting You will hear the call if you only listen Underneath it all we are here together shining still https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVatBy_4GpM
  16. jokin
    And especially because "Mauer got his" on a first pitch fat one- the type of pitch he typically lays off of- and often becomes the most hittable pitch in the AB- and ends up driving fans crazy.
  17. jokin
    You're likely correct and I'm in agreement- the whole Gardy-Molly situation was odd, very transparent at the intentions, at times painful when the veil was briefly lifted. But if the Twins do want to retain Dougie, they're likely gong to have to come up with something creative. In this instance, Mollie's job won't be under imminent threat. Perhaps it might involve a grander succession plan which would include Terry Ryan- who might like to move up from the GM position in a couple years, with Molitor moving out of the dugout- right after a Twins WS win.
  18. jokin
    It seems like the next ship for him to sail on with the Twins would be as a coach at the major league level- perhaps putting in a multi-year apprenticeship under Molitor with an implied promise that the job is his when Molitor moves up to an executive position (Molitor turns 60 next year). Due to his personal situation and the fluid circumstances in Miami, the Marlins job seems like the most logical managerial offer he might receive and accept- but it looks like the Marlins are gong hard after Manny Acta.
  19. jokin
    Just so I'm clear, in case you were referring to me, I was in the not-ready-yet camp for Kepler in early May- given his history and relative to how Sano and Buxton were performing. As my posting history will attest, I am always in the "try it" sooner rather than later camp for the best-performing prospects. I think it would have definitely been worth a shot to have had Kepler pinch hitting in all of these important situations over a struggling Danny Santana.
  20. jokin
    Absolutely right.
  21. jokin
    Ken, you are correct about his slow start. I never advocated to call him up in April, and certainly the Twins made the right decision on where to start him out in 2015. However, I had the chance to see him play in early May, Sano was in the midst of making his huge adjustment- from primarily big fly ball hitter in April, to Line Drive hitter in May. (His April LD% was 12.2%, for May/June- 24.0%. His OFB rate in April was 43.9%, for April June- 31.2%.) Back to the Chattanooga game: He batted 6 times that game, every ball was hit on the nose- to all fields ( 1 K, 1 line drive out at the wall, 2 line drive sac flies to deep LF and RF, and a hard hit single back through the box, plus a double smacked hard, high off the left-center field wall). I wrote up the story at the time, it obviously appeared that he had adjusted after the layoff - and would soon master AA pitching. A little later, I started the "Sano- How soon is Now"? thread, as he continued to spray hard hit line drives and take walks at prolific rates, putting up AA-Kris Bryant-like numbers throughout all of May and all of June (.320/.403/.611). Based on what the Twins got when Sano was finally called up, he certainly proved that he was very ready. BTW- Kepler also looked terrific in that game in May, 3/5 with 2 doubles. but even though Kepler is 3 months older than Sano, besides the obvious differences physically, Sano looked much more like the more ready prospect than Kepler, as did Buxton.
  22. jokin
    I'd be on board for all 3 of nytwins suggestions, but I'm not confident that Ryan will make the moves to "clear itself out." Regarding Sano, it's obvious now that either he was completely mis-asessesed in May or the Twins had already decided that they were going to wait for the Super 2 date, regardless of his readiness. And Seth, you missed the point in my previous post, Buxton was only called up because of both injury- and the fact that the decision to promote became easier since it was beyond the Super 2 date. Unless there's a major injury, or your scenarios of the Twins making the offseason requisite roster-clearing moves, there won't be room for Kepler in the first 3 months or so of 2016. The closer the prospect for promotion gets towards the projected Super 2 date, the more likely they wait on Kepler. Seth, what do you think the chances are that the Twins re-sign Hunter? (I'm thinking better than 50-50). And, what are the odds that Ryan finds sufficient return to pull the trigger on a Plouffe trade? (I'm thinking less than 50-50). Sp. if Ryan does keeps them both and also looks to bring up Buxton no later than May, it becomes extremely unlikely that we see Kepler much in the first half of 2016, barring major injury.
  23. jokin
    A blast out in RF at AT&T is impressive with that high wall, and he had no help from the slight breeze blowing in. But, having walked around back there myself- there is no street or parking lot directly beyond the RF bleachers, just a walkway and service lane to the Lookout locker room and then a steep hill heading straight down to the parking lot along the Tennessee River- if Kepler reached that parking lot, that was quite a jolt!
  24. jokin
    Why? Unless he's offered the Marlins/Rays managerial job, isn't it just as likely that he gets another promotion to coach at the major league level with the Twins (for say Vavra as the bench coach, or say, becoming 3rd base/infield coach)?
  25. jokin
    It could be just a few weeks for Kepler before his 2016 Twins call-up, but Sano and Buxton weren't called up until the bean counters assured management that they were safely beyond the Super 2 date- and, in the other "obvious" case- despite dominating Double A and Triple A- and the Twins desperately needing spot starts in July and a live arm for the stretch run, Berrios never got the call at all. And, as others have noted, there's already a major log jam at all of the positions where Kepler might play. Would they really call up Kepler in the 3rd-4th week of April/1st week of May, if there's no place to play? Buxton is also highly likely to start out in Rochester, so you gotta ask yourself- "Which of these two will get the first call?" Rosario got the early call-up this year- because there was a place to play. Ironically, what happens with Trevor Plouffe this offseason is the first indication of where they see Kepler fitting into their plans in 2016. How many times have they "counted on" a rookie early on, and how many times have they turned to the rookie only after injury or a failed veteran made an opportunity available (the Aaron Hicks nightmare debut hasn't likely been soon forgotten)? In contrast to expecting an early call-up, I think it would be just as safe to predict that we won't be seeing Kepler until as late as June or July- as in the cases of Sano and Buxton- possibly with Plouffe gone- as the new DH/p-t 1st Base/4th OF- maybe with Hunter accepting a 5th OF/DH role to help make room for Kepler to play more regularly.
×
×
  • Create New...