jokin
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Everything posted by jokin
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Pretty good take...my guess though, is that they give LF back to Hammer 5 times a week, and that's where Kubel gets his cutback. FWIW, the postgame presser saw Gardy give Deduno pretty unconditional backing to keep his spot for some time to come. That doesn't mean that they will stand pat with only 12 pitchers, though, which leaves another position player vulnerable, bringing us to Santana..... Santana really needs to be playing every day at SS, somewhere...and until Escobar goes full Alexi Casilla, there's nowhere for Santana to go but Rochester, whether Florimon is also there or not. Meanwhile, it appears that the "mini-surge" is over, as Hicks was completely overmatched again tonight, it seemed like he swung at only 2 out of 15 pitches, both resulting in weak contact, the Twins really need another option....if we knew that there was another SS on the horizon for 2015, I guess I could be convinced to having Santana become a Supe-Util player for now and take some regular reps in CF.
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Amen.
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That was the spot for Oswaldo or Kennys....
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Nope, all good+++
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I'm all in!
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Yeah, I hope so too, but the trends in the medical monitoring of concussion symptoms have been a game-changer (literally).
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When the Twins start employing game theory, then we can discuss it's relevancy to their situation- how many in management even have a rudimentary college background in mathematics? As of now, I just would liked to have seen them play the probabilities and have anticipated, "a few moves ahead", of the likelihood, or at least the blatant possibility, that Hicks would struggle, both in 2013 and 2014, and that they still would not have solved CF or Leadoff-hitting depth issues, in which case, the Chess analogy works just fine for me, as well as for the Twins.
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Because running a business successfully is a chess game and not a checkers game.
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Except that it would be nice to have the short-term option of 3 guys, not 1 or 2 (it's entirely premature to assume that Fuld will come back fully recovered- remember what happened last year with Wilkin Ramirez, anyone?), in the upper system from AA to the major leagues who can actually play an acceptable CF, and no one blocking the other....or blocking the eventual successor....
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This is pretty much the Twins' stance on how things currently stand with Hicks. As I've posited before, their actions indicate that they've already made their decision and they really don't have much invested any more on whether he succeeds or fails- the public call-out seems to be the tactic of last resort.
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I "beg" to differ......
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As long as they keep repeating foolish decisions, and especially with the same players?
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And not only that, we also apparently have moved our AA team closer to home: *Sorry Eric, I really do appreciate your efforts
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Dave Kingman's first 5.25 years of his MLB career from the past are likely as close a comp to hope for as to ABW2's first 5.25 years of his MLB career in the future (and he still has a long ways to go to possibly hit these #s): HR 150 ISO .254 BB% 8.1 K% 28.5 Slash .229/.296/.482/.778 He's a much better athlete than the typical lumbering lumber king slugger. But even during this 10 game stretch, his K% is rising from his season average of 29.1% up to 34.1%. Don't get me wrong, he's an exciting talent, and I'm pulling for him to flip the switch and somehow figure out how to take more walks and K less in order to take his game to a new level, but even the 5-year Oliver projections suggest that the above numbers would be about the best-case scenario (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa621791&position=OF). If you look around baseball stats since 2009, there just aren't many guys who stick around in the majors who have a K% over 28% and a single-digit BB%. Chris Davis is the one name that stands out on the plus side (wouldn't that be nice), while all the other few surviving names are around Kelly Shoppach level, and only 2OFs in the group (Drew Stubbs and Rick Ankiel). And there are no DHs in this list, which leaves that career option out. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2009&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d
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Article: Three Overlooked Twins Prospects
jokin replied to Boone's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Seth, I was wondering if you have heard any knowledgeable opinions (inside or outside the organization) on what to make of Kepler's performance so far this year? It seemed there were rumblings that he had supposedly turned the corner last season, and then obviously the Twins laid it out there with his roster addition. And here we are with him batting below expectations at the bottom of a depleted roster's batting order. -
Article: Are we giving Aaron Hicks a raw deal?
jokin replied to Greg Logan's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Uhhh....except that all of the numbers illustrated would reflect what we've become accustomed to within the larger numbers over the last 2 years- I responded to a comment that alleged how strong of a defender he currently is.....and there's virtually no evidence to suggest that Hicks is currently a good defender, by the numbers, or the eye test. And we know from last year, that he changed his style to become a more aggressive hitter mid-season that resulted in a falling BB% rate...and it turns out, we reach generally the same conclusion, as you so aptly pointed out in your last paragraph. -
Article: Three Overlooked Twins Prospects
jokin replied to Boone's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Only Milwaukee (have stashed in the past), or Houston likely would have picked either one up. Although the odds were remote on both, it does appear the Twins either "knew" something, got played, or were either just a little over-defensive or over-optimistic. -
I saw that comment and interpreted it as more of a feeble excuse and cry for help as much as anything.
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Yup, I love Buehrle, wish we had him, but the 2014 mirage will merge into reality (still very good!) once the strand% and HRs normalize. He's right with a number of guys just on the outside looking in at the HOF. You have to ask yourself, do Frank Tanana, Rick Reuschel, Luis Tiant, Jack Morris and Chuck Finley deserve to be in? Most of their numbers are comparable or better. Jim Kaat and Tommy John are apparently penalized for their longevity, but they seem far more worthy.
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In the context of the discussion, "No".
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lolllllllllll
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Did anyone say anything about "fact"? It just seems that we both made predictions based on probabilities and hope. It's my opinion that yours is based more on the latter and mine on the former, at this point in time. I still stand by my opinion that having the AAA option for a demonstrably slow learner like Hicks, is the prudent course. The switch may have turned on in the last week- it would be a very significant development for the future of the Twins, indeed, but the odds are that he'll need more time for the Twins to make a final conclusion on realizing his full potential with the club.
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And this begs the question of what the Twins were thinking back in April 2013 in promoting Hicks 2 levels, and then imposing an extra layer of pressure on Hicks by batting him in the leadoff spot. And then letting him twist in the wind with his epically bad start for April and much of May. His slow learning curve adaptations at each successive level are well-documented for all to see.
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If? More like "When". And the point is moot until Grady actually becomes available, if ever.
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Again, his success at this level may still go through Rochester, and it doesn't hurt to have that option available.