jokin

The Twins are repeatedly said to be pursuing 2 SPs. Why not both on short-term deals?

Yep, yep, yep. I wrote about that previously. With this potential Starting 5, the Twins would be in the position of having the best SP depth in quite some time, maybe ever, and takes the pressure off of the prospects and the Twins to expect immediate impact out of ST. Should Anderson and/or Masterson falter, you still have the Triple M Plan B depth of (May, Meyer, Milone), plus possibly Pelfrey, Rogers, Darnell, Gilmartin, Duffey and perhaps later in the season, the best of them all, Jose Berrios. And with short-term FA contracts, no significant blocking of prospects going forward.

The Twins are said to have as a top priority at least one, if not two, SPs. Masterson and Anderson together would be a perfect fit for the Twins needs in the short-term.

Are you sure about that? 2010-2014 Stats: Garza- IP/Y- 165 K/9- 7.45 FIP/xFIP- 3.76/3.76 Hughes IP/Y- 159 K/9- 7.50 FIP/xFIP- 3.92/4.05 Masterson IP/Y- 184 K/9- 7.50 FIP/xFIP- 3.79/3.79

Better options? His numbers all dropped dramatically year-over-year. His innings were about the same while his ERA, WHIP, H/9, doubled or nearly doubled while his ERA+ and WAR halved or nearly halved. His split advantage also evaporated- .760 OPS vs LH/.713 OPS vs RH. And he's rarely used in high-leverage situations, 22 PAs in 2014. As far as league average (LA) for RPs vs. Thielbar (CT), he doesn't fare very well there, either: K/9- (LA) 8.46 (CT) 6.61 K%- (LA) 22.2% (CT) 17.0% WHIP- (LA) 1.28 (CT) 1.41 He does have 2 options left, would he pass through waivers? Probably a close call, depending on the timing.

I think that's why some of us aren't relaxing, as Howard Sinker said a little over a year ago- "there are at least two dozen guys on this roster that wouldn't be missed, they are mostly all below "below-replacement- level." Purge now while the purging is good.

Thanks for your take, Seth. Still only 23. Could you contrast your lowered opinion of him- relative to Sickels still thinking he deserves a mention in his prospect write-up? Obviously the Twins still like him since he was re-signed, has anyone spoken off the record to you about him? Seems like a lot of good results to celebrate, results that look like they can translate to the MLB level, especially with Salcedo facing career-oblivion only 2 years ago. Any idea where he is assigned, and what role he might have in 2015? And what about a college arm guy like Cole Johnson? Definitely older and thus, much less intriguing, but he was another with an under-the-radar, really-good-year, in New Britain. Consider these stats and Eastern League rankings for pitchers with 70+ IP (and in more high-leverage opportunities than Salcedo): FIP 2.97 5th SIERA 3.00 1st K% 26.4% 2nd AB/K 3.45 2nd Ksw% 19.9% 5th K/9 10.16 2nd K/BB 3.90 9th

Dougie reports that the Twins are apparently thinking along the same lines: (FWIW, it is Doogie, afterall).

If you think those 3 are going to be added, then besides Duensing (I agree, he's gone), Swarzak and perhaps Thielbar, are probably also on thin ice.

And the book is closed on Santana.

Good take, that's about where I'm at, and more importantly, I hope with the help of some Pohlad and Molitor encouragement, that's where Terry Ryan is at ,as well. Plus you have the chance to get a bounce-back season towards career-norms from both Nolasco and Masterson (2-year deal?) to possibly offset some regression from Hughes and/or Gibson. Add a one-year deal on a #5-level, reliable innings eater with a cheap, incentive-laden contract, you can then potentially have a Triple M triumvirate- "Plan B" (May, Meyer, Milone) in the wings, who could all be both pen and starter depth options- this would be potentially the best SP depth options for the Twins in years. Pelfrey might also still be hanging around if they can't move him by the end of ST, but in any case, the Twins would have 3 expiring SP contracts with the new 5th starter, Milone and Pelfrey, so theoretically, only one of May or Meyer would be blocked for one season going into 2016. (If Masterson could also be signed for one year, that would mean no one would be blocked for 2016).

Overlooked with all the flash and sizzle of the 9 pitchers in the top 20, are 12 pitchers that Sickels assigned with a C ranking, which implies they still have a decent chance to be anywhere from a major league role player to a future star. And buried deep near the end of Sickels' article he had this to say about C-rated, Adrian Salcedo: I remember being quite high on Salcedo before his injury troubles in 2012, completely lost track of him, and was pleasantly surprised to find out that he's still only 23, still throws in the low-to-mid 90s, and has done quite well pitching mostly out of the pen the last two seasons, this year playing in AA, about 1.6 years in age below Eastern League average. Seth had Salcedo as high as #12 back in 2012, before eventually seeing him fall back to #50, before dropping off of his latest Twins lists completely. Superficially, his stats look pedestrian, being marred by a 4+ ERA, together with ~league average WHIP around 1.40. But looking inside his stats, he actually did really, really well, scoring near the top of the league in a ton of categories for pitchers who threw more than 70 IPs, even beating or nearly matching the Twins top 2014 AA pitchers, Gilmartin and Rogers, in many categories. The Ksw, GB% and LD% numbers really stand out, not much hard contact against him. Stats for Salcedo from Minorleaguecentral.com, stat with league ranking: FIP 2.58 3rd SIERA 3.13 5th GB% 58.4% 4th LD% 10.7% 4th K% 24.0% 5th K/9 9.37 4th AB/K 3.78 5th Ksw 20.8% 2nd Ksw/Kl 6.60 2nd K/BB 3.17 20th HR/9 0.25 3rd HR/FB 3.8 5th HR/Cont. 0.9 3rd OFB% 24.8% 9th GB/FB 2.08 5th BABIP .360 2nd highest LOB 64.1% 12th lowest He seems like a prime candidate to be drafted away in the Rule 5 minor league phase, hopefully the Twins can retain him. His role this year was primarily in middle relief as he had to defer to the older pitchers, who, BTW, none of whom Sickels even gave a C grade to- Oliveros, O'Rourke and Cole Johnson- got the bulk of the late innings for New Britain. The video out there on him on Youtube isn't very good. He is still very tall and skinny, his body evidently isn't done filling out. The Twins saw enough in him to re-sign him to a minor league contract a couple weeks ago. To Seth, and you guys who saw New Britain play this year, or have seen him in Florida, feel free to weigh in on his prospect prospects... Is Sickels all wet and working off of a dated tout sheet? Or... can Salcedo put in a third straight strong year out of the pen, boosting his place in the ML RP depth hierarchy? Or can he get all the way back into the conversation as a SP prospect (he did have 6 starts in 2014)?

Two STs in a row, Aaron Hicks was All-World against ST pitching, and we know how quickly he was exposed... and the Twins fell for that ST mirage, twice. Rosario hasn't come close to accomplishing at AA what Hicks did three seasons ago. The things you legitimately cite as "areas to work on" in your opening paragraph will likely overwhelm any favorable ST impressions, even if they are at Hicksian levels. IMO, the wisest course is having a solid Plan A (FA LF/ platoon CF), with the understanding that Rosario is a solid upgrade as a Plan B- as one who could knock the doors in and claim a spot in May, June, July, with a decent performance in Chattanooga/Rochester.

Did you get a chance to ask your Cards friend about Jon Jay?

Kris Johnson was sold to Korea in October. Adding the three "guaranteeds" listed by Seth above will put the roster at 39. They would still have to move at least 3 more for Goodrum, Gilmartin and Wheeler to be added and still leave a Rule 5 spot. You're right though, Thompson is a good candidate for removal, other possibilities are Achter, Darnell, Pryor, Fryer, Thielbar, Colabello (also a possible sale to Korea), Hermann, Parmelee (the guys in bold I suspect have the best chance of retention)- that's 9 guys right there. Arb-eligible players total 7- the pitchers seem the most expendable- Duensing, Swarzak, Fien, Milone... with 3 position players, Plouffe, Nunez, Schafer, out of which Plouffe, Fien and Schafer seem, at this point with the current roster, as almost certainly vital for the Twins to retain. That still means there are 13 guys currently on the "potentially expendable list." That's plenty of potential room for a Rule 5 pick-up spot, plus prospect additions, FA signings and trades.

Great in-depth analysis by Seth. Interesting to note that this year's 3 automatic roster-adds are a whole degree of magnitude more talented and "automatic" than last year's 4 add-ons. 4 questionables in 2013 vs. 3 'no-question' this year. The top talent is very close to breaking out. I didn't like reading again that nagging undercurrent message about Meyer: Very troubling to see this lingering doubt yet again in print. Is this opinion accelerating in baseball circles, is it coming mostly from the outside portentous "I told you so's" with ulterior motives, or, more disconcerting, from voices within the organization- ie, based on Meyer's shoulder health, psychological make-up, or organizational frustration over lack of response to the Twins coaching regimen with respect to acceptable progress citerion for an SP?

"You can never have enough pitching." "No such thing as a bad one-year contract."

I'll be surprised if Pelfrey is effective in any role but as a reliever, and gone by August.

Good catch, my fast-stat-rendering mistake. Regardless, I didn't see anything from Milone in his time here that suggested the Twins make any kind of commitment to him now that he's Arb-eligible. Being the sole LHSP isn't much of a qualification to just hand Milone a roster spot- what does Kurt Suzuki know that Milone has failed to demonstrate? IMO, other veteran LHSP options should be considered, I get the NL pitching stigma with respect to the Twins, but if Wood is released, he should be one of the bargain bin options in the consideration mix for the Twins.

Buried within the article, something interesting that many may have missed: Pretty harsh outcome for Gary Lucas. First FSL championship, team pitching ERA was 4th in the league, led the league in CGs with 10. Under Springman's coordination: Rk OPS .708 1st in League A OPS .703 5th in 16-team League A+ OPS .722 2nd in League AA OPS .708 7th in League AAA OPS .722 6th in 14-team League Does Terry Ryan have a new hatchet man in the making? Brad Stiel looks like he's going to demand even higher standards. Future GM material?

Since one of the top FAs was likely never going to happen anyway, I was endorsing Justin Masterson as a classic Ryan FA target back during the regular season. In that regard, I was encouraged to see MLBTR report that the Twins are indeed interested in Masterson, and the writer of the article made the strongest case for the Twins in acquiring. It turns out he's looking for a short-term landing place to make good, ala the Phil Hughes situation, but only seeking one or two years. That should be right in Terry's contract-comfort-zone-wheelhouse. The big red flag is the 3MPH drop-off in velocity in the FB and 2.5MPH drop in his other main pitches. But he's still getting the big GB number and a high K/9 of 8.11, and his numbers were hurt by abnormally high BABIP and LOB results. Assuming he's not a major health risk, it's time to pull the trigger. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/minnesota-twins Minnesota is also mentioned as a possible landing spot for Travis Wood. At first glance, he seems to be a carbon copy of Tommy Milone- both soft-toss lefties, similar in stature, virtually the exact same age (28 in 2015), ERA+ of 96, 97, respectively, both potential bounce-back candidates, but- Milone's ERA+ in 2014 was 57, so he needs to bounce back quite a bit farther from Wood's 2014 ERA+ of 76- the data indicates that Wood was more the victim of bad luck, while Milone appears to have had the bottom fall out on his career, plus Wood has a little more velocity and K-potential. Wood was a 2nd round draft pick, Milone a 10th rounder. If both are potential non-tender candidates and fill a LHSP need, it seems worth considering a swap out.

There's this literary device, I know you've heard of it. "Figure of speech." Hard as it is to believe, words on the internet aren't literal 100% of the time.

Uhh, when has it been said that the guy who negotiates and signs contracts did so unwillingly? I thought it was obvious that "kicking and screaming" is a figure of speech, not Terry Ryan actually having an infant temper tantrum or instigating a work action. There's no doubt that TR is a good soldier and a good company man and did pretty good in his attempt at executing the Pohlad-directed fix- ie, on his own, he'd never put a guy-in-waiting in the seat next to Gardy. It's not arguable that what happened last offseason was Ryan's standard MO for his vision as the acting Twins GM. Let's put the shoe on the other foot, can anyone argue that Ryan has ever marched into Carl's or Jim's office and demanded that a similar plan be put in place since 1994?

+1 Past off-field issues and inconsistent production are not erased by 115 AFL PAs. I'd prefer to see him force the issue and steal a spot away in-season, not have it handed to him in April based on those AFL PAs and irrelevant ST stats.

You are free to believe what you wish to believe, but since the facts overwhelmingly don't support your position, I will continue to try to tell you that Ryan "was ('figuratively') dragged kicking and screaming, objecting to the decision and being overruled by Pohlad." I never said it was a literal thing, and I never said he publicly objected, hence the cross-out. Ryan's 21-year-career body of work is obvious evidence enough to suggest that last offseason was not his style of management, and Pohlad very uncharacteristically publicly inserted himself into a situation in which the wheels had fallen off. It's pretty self-evident, in the instances of both the Molitor to coach-to-manager-in-waiting hiring and the FA spending spree are his doing, not Ryan's.