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jokin

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Everything posted by jokin

  1. jokin
    Where? The top OF FAs left without giving up a draft pick are Hunter, Rios and Rasmus, all are flawed. Hunter is likely the only one they are even seriously considering. If it means they intend to use that money towards one of the top SP, that's great, but it seems unlikely that they could, or would want to close a deal like that. Which then means, maybe, they could operate like last offseason, and look to go after a couple of second or third-tier SPs.
  2. jokin
    How desperate is San Francisco? Let's wait and see if they whiff on Headley. The return might go even higher. in some sort of multiple player deal from both teams, Asking for Susac, +, the Giants have a bunch of decent-to-very-good prospect starting pitchers on the major league doorstep that are currently blocked.
  3. jokin
    Again, there remain certain market inefficiencies in the area of the value of catching metrics. A budget-challenged team can recoup a lot of runs cheaply with better framing technique and base-stealing prevention. Obviously, Suzuki is there to help do the film study, game-planning, interaction with pitchers and the pitching coach, but another experienced voice involved in that process seems both a wise and prudent use of resources.
  4. jokin
    Redundancy is a positive feature in many systems. MIght want to take it up with one of the more positive mods? Riverbrian and Ash seem to be in good moods lately.
  5. jokin
    Agreed.
  6. jokin
    IMO, Hicks desperately needs to start 2014 in AAA to get his house in order. Rosario has yet to master AA pitching. When either of them proves ready, you can move Schafer out, or possibly Deshields back to the Astros for one of those 100MPH Class A pitchers.
  7. jokin
    I'd prefer a pitcher, for sure. And if they miss out on the best options, don't forget, there is always the chance that the Twins can trade Deshields back to the Astros for one of their A-level flamethrowers. Deshields might be stashable as the 4th OFer. He had a very good split against LHP in 2014- .269/.373/.398/..771 wOBA .359. And you would have a great pinch runner/late inning replacement guy, at age 22. You might even contemplate platooning Schafer and Deshields. As far as Deshields' motivation issues, I can't think of anything more motivating than getting an unexpected shot at a major-league roster spot and this would be a case where a Torii Hunter signing would clearly come in handy to help get a kid's mind right. I fully acknowledge that this move would likely hurt the team in 2015, but it appears that the team doesn't seriously intend to compete until 2016, at the earliest.
  8. jokin
    Only if the arbiter sees more from the numbers I've cited that show Dozier's done better, plus the two year's difference in their ages going forward to 2017. Right now, Walker has the longer track record in his favor, the other indicators appear to be going in Dozier's direction. Again, even if he regresses as Steamer projects, the strong salary inflation dynamic in MLB is going to push up that Arb 2 number quite a bit by 2017.
  9. jokin
    Overall, I'm less confident on him than I was on Abreu at this time last year. Abreu had the better numbers in the Cuban league. But this still seems like a pretty affordable contract for the Twins to have at least made a competitive offer. This seems like exactly the move that two sabre-Sandy Alderson acolytes would make (LaRussa and Stewart). It would have made a nice PR coup for the Twins, and gotten some more FA pitchers more interested in picking up the phone when the Twins called. I'm with twinsfansreif, with the added money coming in to baseball, Tomas is only 24, there's a very good chance that the Twins could have gotten a decent return out of him, and every year on the contract would have been before he turned 30.
  10. jokin
    ***From Baseball Reference- Dozier 2013 WAR 3.8 + 2014 WAR 5.2 = 9.0 WAR not 8.9 WAR. That's a 1.4 WAR difference, and the trend appears to be heading in Dozier's direction. If 1.0 WAR is supposed to represent $6M, and now likely $7M, the trend seems to be Dozier's friend for a bigger arb award in 2017, especially being two years younger. Dozier only played half the season in his first (failed) year, and as I acknowledged previously, Walker has the longer track record upon which to judge. And Walker has only played in 129, 133 and 137 games the last 3 seasons, by contrast, Dozier has played in 147 and 156 games the last two seasons, so normalization of WAR isn't entirely accurate in terms of a batting-order-manager-decision difference. In point of fact, Dozier has played 33 more games than Walker over the last two seasons, 5th most for all 2nd baseman,, definitely a valuable data-point for clubs seeking durability at a key defensive position. Another big difference is the area you have completely left out- the Baseball Reference defensive metric in the overall component, which shows Dozier grading out the better 2nd baseman.
  11. jokin
    Dozier is two years younger, I have no argument that Walker has a longer track record. I also agree that the decision involves a bit of speculation and poker on the part of both parties. But if Dozier just continues on his current path, even somewhere between 2013 and 2014 (I'm not sure how he should be fairly evaluated to drop to 2.9 WAR, much lower than either of his last two seasons???), plus salary inflation, he's going to make a whole lot more than Walker when he reaches Arb2. Consider just the last two seasons, and hence my point about who has been the better player: Dozier rWAR 9.0 /d WAR 2.2 Walker rWAR 7.6 /d WAR 1.2
  12. jokin
    I thin the Tigers think that both the Twins and Rangers "posted" without respect for Yang.
  13. jokin
    That is likely how the Twins feel, seemingly over-valuing Suzuki's leadership skills while ignoring both the glaring deficiencies in Suzuki's game as well as the possibility that 2014 was an extreme outlier at the plate. It sure would be a shame to cut Pinto loose with little to show in return with all of that offense potential. Meanwhile, the plot thickens with Blanco in Chicago and his D-Back catcher, Miguel Montero.... would that mean that Wellington Castillo might become available? He would make a very nice, great-plate-defense, buy -ow-in -rade candidate.
  14. jokin
    I would hope the Twins are thinking about this contract two/three moves ahead... a team-favorable contract as in the case of Denard Span, will make Dozier a desirable piece to more teams when it comes time to move him. Example, the WAR numbers say Neil Walker is clearly an inferior player and is set to earn $8.6M in his second year of arbitration. Based on the rate that salaries are climbing, Seth's estimate of 8-10M in Dozier's second year as arb eligible is likely going to end up being too low. $7M for Dozier in 2017 could be looking pretty cheap to prospective suitors who will be looking at potential sticker shock on Howie Kendrick, Jose Altuve, Daniel Murphy, et al.
  15. jokin
    Thanks, very helpful. This looks like the year to take a chance on someone.
  16. jokin
    And it wasn't perfectly clear that he was the top performing pitcher, Yang had a better K rate and WHIP in 2014, but Kim's ERA was a full run lower. Yang and Kim have come up together, same age, both LH. Kim's career ERA is a full earned run lower, with similar peripherals elsewhere.
  17. jokin
    Deshields faster? Stole over 100 bases in 2012. Just turned 22. And they could possibly trade him back to Houston for one of their many live young arms.
  18. jokin
    I've written about them frequently elsewhere... but if the Twins don't end up with the chance to get one of the high-upside arms being available in their draft slot, two OFers, Henry Ramos of the Red Sox and Delino Deshields of the Astros would be intriguing.
  19. jokin
    Some of the TD guys were involved in a Twitter debate this evening on an issue many of us have been noting during this coach-hiring process: I still don't understand why Henry Blanco wasn't brought in, at least for an interview. Bilingual (for a guy like Pinto to learn more easily from) and a familiar guy to the organization. What do Maddon and Epstein know that the Twins don't? With the extra runs that can be extracted over a season through daily tweaking at the catcher position, it is a bit surprising that there is no ex-catcher on the staff yet. Not all his doing, obviously, but with Blanco at least being familiar with the concept, the D-Backs had some of the best catch-framing stats, the Cubs, especially the Twins, were down around the bottom.
  20. jokin
    You say ridiculous, and I say how many titles does the new Dodger ownership have on their mantle? The Dodgers, new and old owners, last won the Series in '88. And if it wasn't for the Dodgers who bailed them out somewhat, the Red Sox would still be buried in the payroll hole of their own making. And the Phillies and Yankees are both a mess, the Tigers appear to soon be on the same type of bad contract precipice. The Angels have one title in their history, in 2002. The Rangers and Dodgers have both been on the brink of bankruptcy. You say it's unfair, and I say life is also unfair. The Twins asked the public to make things less unfair, I wish they would match the commitment of the public to lessenng that unfairness by matching their own internal commitment to the same goal.
  21. jokin
    Stuart Miller of the NY Times had an excellent article on the evolving role and importance of the bench coach. Next to the Manager, but a Bit Ahead Hopefully, someone, or more than just one someone, sees some/all of these attributes in Vavra, and that's why the hire was made. All we heard today from Ryan is that Vavra's "been a good baseball man". And apparently, as a career middle infielder, he has Ryan's confidence that he will be good enough to take over the catcher supervision. Time will only tell.
  22. jokin
    Or guys who would have fetched more, with some added foresight, ie, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier (the first tour), etc...
  23. jokin
    Even without a cap, many small and mid-market teams have adapted, thrived, and not only hung with their big market competitors, but ran circles around them at times (they've been either "aggressive", just plain smart and disciplined, or all of the above), while many teams with the unlimited budgets we've seen fail more than they succeed.
  24. jokin
    Twins Daily post- Hall of Fame nominee http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8d/E9d_USAF_CMSAF.svg/72px-E9d_USAF_CMSAF.svg.png
  25. jokin
    No one?
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