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jokin

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Everything posted by jokin

  1. jokin
    And highly goal-oriented- this kid is focused on success.
  2. jokin
    The Twins can make some decent defensive improvements with more, and better, strategic shifting, plus... many more innings with three actual OFers playing in the OF, and finally, in the IF, an uber-heroic first year, full-time performance by Santana at SS, the same performance from Plouffe, and necessary incremental improvements from Dozier and Mauer. But even in the offhand chance that they click on every one of these problematic dimensions, it's difficult to imagine they can still come anywhere close to a 110 DRS improvement
  3. jokin
    I remember writing at the time that Dayton Moore had had a series of head-scratching moves over the years and it made we wonder how he had kept his job, and that this Myers trade was a somewhat desperate attempt to save his job. It was within the context of the Twins trading a top prospect for an Ace, without a certain path to a contract extension. Moreover, I surmised that Wade Davis might be the sleeper out of the trade (little did I know, Moore saw a lot more out of him than I could have imagined). And then he resumed his head-scratching ways this off-season, apparently just to see if we're still paying attention??? A great Jeff Sullivan article in Fangraphs today, The Royals Spending Poorly Wisely, ends up making the case that he's doing the things a mid-market team has to do to sustain making a succession of World Series runs:
  4. jokin
    But then, how does Torii mentor, and "light a fire" under him if he's a thousand miles away in Rochester? /sarc (I agree, it's likely not going to happen, but Hicks should definitely start out the season in Rochester... a full-time upgrade or a short-term platoon with Schafer and somebody else, would make more sense, let Hicks insinuate himself into the situation of being the "Plan B" solution instead of the "Plan A" disaster he's been the last two seasons).
  5. jokin
    The reporters are reading the TD threads... Paul Molitor, overheard on KSTP TV regarding Hunter's potential spot in the order (paraphrased): "I can envision Torii batting 2nd in the order, as he did in Detroit, in certain situations, he did very well there... I can also see him batting clean-up in other scenarios..."
  6. jokin
    Yeah, I'm not saying Esco's the third catcher, I'm saying that I don't see the need to have a third catcher on the 25-man roster. And the Twins have made such a commitment to Hermann's future as a cacther, they've been cutting back on the net number of games he's played at the position- 87 games in 2012, 67 games in 2013, 27 games in 2014. Frankly, IMO he's just not good enough in the OF or at the plate at the major league level to justify keeping him around much longer.
  7. jokin
    Which ones? Rosario and Kepler clearly aren't ready yet. Sierra did show some real promise in Chicago, he just turned 26, and he has had some nice pop in his bat in the upper minors. And he would replace a guy that is MORE marginal than he might be.
  8. jokin
    That's about where I'm at, but in the case of Hermann the Twins already have an emergency catcher in Escobar, and the Twins don't seem too enamored with Hermann behind the plate, anyway, he's not even listed as a catcher any more. As far as Ofers go, there's Rasmus out there to put in CF, he desperately needs a change in scenery to recharge his career, but I doubt the Twins will pull it off... and as a lesser opportunity, now there are reports that Seth Smith is on the block with the Padres getting Kemp. I suspect that Smith could be had without giving up very much, and would slot in nicely in LF right away (.839 lifetime OPS vs. RHP).
  9. jokin
    I love the fractured syntax- for some reason, it fits right in with the Royals recent decision-making skills. Were you going for "anomaly" or "abnormality"?
  10. jokin
    Back-up DH? The Twins can clearly go a different route than that. It sure seems that Hunter (2014 OPS+ 111) is destined for at least 35-45 games at DH if they want him to play close to 150 games. Mauer (OPS+ 107) had 19 DH games last year... seems safe to say he'll get at least that and maybe up to 30 in all. That leaves 100 games or so for Vargas (OPS+ 115), Pinto (OPS+ 98) or maybe Arcia (OPS+ 108) to pick up, combined. Pinto would clearly be the worst choice of the bunch.
  11. jokin
    Would they abruptly move Darnell out in one year from LHSP depth to becoming merely a LOOGY? (Even if his numbers scream that as his ceiling).
  12. jokin
    Yep, the sky isn't falling. But you are answering a question that wasn't really asked in the OT. The question was- "Who won the first day of the Winter Meetings?"
  13. jokin
    I've been predicting they end up with Hunter in the clean-up spot. The first 3 spots look clearly taken, is there any way your big off-season FA signing is moved down to the 5, 6 or 7 spot in the order? Nope. The only way Vargas gets the clean-up spot, is if Santana is moved down into the 9-hole, with Hunter batting 2nd.
  14. jokin
    Great post, although I'd probably give the White Sox a B+ to this point. They still have to address some holes, but if we are grading on a curve, no one in the division to this point has filled more holes, with such significant upgrades. And they appear to be the team most motivated to make more significant improvements. KC seems to be reverting to their old selves, questionable upgrades (signed both Pino and Morales? Rios and his leg injuries are a bit of a gamble. The White Sox got LHRP Dan Jennings from the Marlins, clearly a better deal than the Royals getting Marlins' LHRP Brian Flynn), and now seem to be playing the waiting game and hope one of the available arms becomes cheap before ST. It looks like the heirs to the Illitch estate are shutting off the unlimited taps on the payroll- they seem to be in the process of completely dismantling a once-formidable rotation- why wouldn't you sign a FA OF instead of trading off yet another proven SP (and substituting Porcello with Alfredo Simon?). 2015 might be their last year with the Tigers as the clear pre-season favorite in the Central. Cleveland has the pitching and the manager and Moss can help the lineup, but Floyd's contribution is sketchy at best... and they don't appear to have any inclination to expand the payroll any further.
  15. jokin
    Lots and lots of players with talent, but without the requisite control, who are out there waving red flags.... until they don't. The Twins have multiple LHPs, quite prone to getting lit up due to lack of a strikeout pitch, time to look around for alternatives from the greater RP pile- one of Ryan's specialties.
  16. jokin
    Because every team has to have those spots filled- as efficiently and productively as possible?
  17. jokin
    LHPs, Nick Maronde and Scott Barnes were waived today by Cleveland and Texas. Both have shown strong strikeout proficiency and have battled control issues, along with some limited major league experience. Both have been Top 11 prospects within their respective organizations and throw around 93-4 velocity. Maronde had some health issues in 2013 and 2014, but appeared to have gotten straightened out spectacularly after being sold to the Indians mid-season. Barnes appeared to get back on track in AAA in 2014, after a bad year in 2013. Both of course were difficult on LHB. The Twins current LHRP options are Duensing, Milone, T-Bar, definitely examples of the Low K variety (and relatively unheralded Ryan O'Rourke on the move up the organizational chart). Is it time to consider further inexpensive high-minor league options of the High K variety?
  18. jokin
    We're waiting for the Twins to add to their OF, either seeking depth and/or a starting position upgrade, and -claim or sign a minor league OFer, -sign a non-tender (Andy Dirks and Eric Young) -make a trade for a proven CFer (Bourjos) -sign a proven CFer (Colby Rasmus) -How about a waiver claim? Moises Sierra was just DFAd by the Royals, likely can be claimed outright. Was caught in a numbers game in Chicago, but was popular there in 2014. Considering him strictly as a 4th or 5th OFer, would he be an upgrade over Hermann/Nunez? Comparisons to Hermann/Nunez- One year younger, league minimum salary for two more years, more pop in his bat, better OF defender, but he can't fill the 3rd catcher role or a utility infield role and is out of options, while Hermann has one left, Nunez none. If Rosario proves ready at some point in 2015, Sierra could be easily waived. Thoughts?
  19. jokin
    And that's the point I was trying to make originally to Brandon (shorthand version)---> LaRoche for Dunn (and replacing Abreu for a significant chunk of defensive reps), is not a wash, but a pretty decent upgrade.
  20. jokin
    Fundamentally speaking, LaRoche has been a much better player over the last 3 years, in the field and at the plate... Adam Dunn oWAR for the last 3 years--- 1.9 Adam LaRoche oWAR for the last 3 years-- 6.3
  21. jokin
    Only if you fail to consider all of the assumptions in coming to the conclusion.
  22. jokin
    A team going for it in the big way the Sox are will bow to the inevitable and end up giving LaRoche at least half of the starts at First Base, and likely more... which is how I'm basing my WAR evaluation... LaRoche is a far better defender than Abreu. LaRoche desperately wants to play in the field, I'm betting that the facts and his pressing the issue results in him ending up with more games than Abreu and plays at least 100 in the field, which was the essential point on why WAR is extremely relevant when comparing Dunn, Abreu and LaRoche.
  23. jokin
    Huh? Dunn 2014 WAR 0.3 LaRoche 2014 WAR 2.2
  24. jokin
    Just an insurance policy if Tanaka can't start the season.
  25. jokin
    Maybe we should be worried, at least a little. Over the last two seasons, the Twins only have a winning record in the AL Central with the Sox. Without the Sox being pretty bad, the Twins could easily have been looking at 100 loss seasons, in 2013, and maybe even 2014. It's hard to say for sure how much the Sox have improved, but there's little doubt that these moves have improved them, and improved their chances on taking the season series from the Twins.. Where do the Twins go to make up those assumed-won games that are now more problematic, and that padded their record a bit in 2013 and 2014?
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