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jokin

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Everything posted by jokin

  1. jokin
    * Brian Dozier was just short of 25, and not rated in mlb.com's Twins Top 20 going into 2012. * Evan Gattis was 26 and not rated in mlb.com's Braves Top 20 going into 2013. * Josmil Pinto was 24 and not rated in mlb.com's Twins Top 20 going into 2013. * Yangervis Solarte was 26 and completely unknown going into 2014, he ended up playing 131 games for the Yankees and Pads, and all he has to do is beat out Will Middlebrooks and he'll be the starting 3rd baseman for a legit contender in 2015. ...which is to say, there are plenty of examples of late-bloomer, off-the-radar types that still have a potentially impactful major league career. Although there is a lot of mid-to-late 20s filler in AA and AAA, it isn't as easy to dismiss older prospects out of hand as you might think. I'd raise my level of respect for prospect-rankers who identify early (and often) the sleepers, and the "turtles". Way too many Joe Bensons cluttering these Top 20 prospects lists.
  2. jokin
    Simple really, Houston is ready to go for it, this year, the Twins aren't. (To illustrate where both teams are at- contention-wise, the Twins would have significantly upgraded with the CF that the Stros just discarded).
  3. jokin
    Yeah, exactly what I was thinking. The timeline is critical here. Unless they had/have some kind of deal to offload Nolasco, it seems highly unlikely that they have both Santana and Shields on their shopping list. FWIW, LEN3 reported last night that after talking with Ryan, that the Twins are basically done, except for keeping tabs on certain names currently playing winter ball. And sure enough, they signed two winter ball minor leaguers today, and supposedly have Johan Santana and Alexi Ogando on their pitching list.
  4. jokin
    Oswaldo Arcia played in his 4th straight game for Caribes, the last three in LF (so the experiment continues). After an 0-5 and 2 strikeout game on Sunday, Arcia got back on track tonight, reaching base 3 times in 5 PAs with 2 singles and a walk, and no strikeouts. Two games left for Caribes in the round robin.
  5. jokin
    All good points, but how likely is it for an Aussie (Australia is a small population country where baseball is probably not even in the Top 10 in popularity) to have a vast cultural and experience advantage, plus equality or superiority in that "skill", over the literally 100s of available North American and Latin Americans? And if he was so valued, why was he let go after 7 years with the club originally? I'd always prefer to err on the side of potential untapped upside or established veteranness in these types of signings.
  6. jokin
    What's changed on San Miguel from his first 7 Butera-esque years as a Twins farmhand? As far as "bottoming out" goes... I'm willing to bet that he was probably the 3rd best catching option for the Twins to consider on his Frontier League team- and the numbers at the plate seem to support it: Keith Castilo Age 26 Bats Both College USC Minor league slash- .254/.344/.373/.717 Indy League (one year)- .265/.352/.372/.724 James Skelton Age 29 Bats Left Drafted 14th rd. Detroit MiLB Slash- .252/.390/.371/.762 Indy League )one year) .268/.373/.330/.703 Allan de San Miguel Age 26 Bats Rt. Signed out of Australia MiLB Slash- .212/.325/.326/.651 Indy League (one year) .203/.289/.332/.621 I guess he might be a comfort in ST around fellow Aussies- Lewis Thorpe, Todd Van Steensel and Josh Guyer. And he did do better in the ABL this winter- .266/.369/.363/.732.... but it seems like the Twins can do better for quality catching depth.
  7. jokin
    Epstein's no dummy, he has an excellent knack for acquiring short-time, place-holding talent, talent that is heavily incentivized as they approach Free Agency. In the process, Epstein keeps improving his team long-term- increment by increment. He made a nice flip on CF/2B Bonifacio last season for a top ten catching prospect. The pieces he traded were blocking/expendable... now look for Fowler himself to get flipped for a decent return, assuming the Cubs aren't contending, or they keep him to season-end and make a QO. As far as Fowler's "butchery" something screwy happened with Fowler's defensive metrics in 2014, the numbers were far askew of his career marks (could it be related to the exaggerated Astro defensive shifts? It seems that almost anybody's defensive numbers would be suspect with how much the Astros shifted in 2014). He isn't a great CF by any means, but he's really not that bad (he certainly would have been a major upgrade for the Twins).
  8. jokin
    I'm looking forward to the first test to see if things have actually changed- ie, the first quote from Molitor about "but we only have two catchers... angst! angst!... we might lose the DH for one or two ABs!". I have to think that the slate will finally be wiped clean on that front once and for all. The way Pinto is mashing the ball this winter (and still catching 3/4ths of the time), it would be unfortunate and shortsighted if the Twins couldn't find a way to get Pinto at least 400 PAs to find out for certain if he's definitely ready to take the next step forward in his career.
  9. jokin
    It amazes not by not as much how many in general, but by how many who should know better after two decades or so in the seats of power.
  10. jokin
    Uneventful game tonight. Arcia went 0-5, Pinto continues to have a monster Winter League season going 2-4. But there were a couple of Winter League-related developments... First, Eduardo Escobar missed his third straight game. Seth PMd me tonight and said he was looking into the situation, hopefully it's nothing serious. Second, LEN3 was asked if Terry Ryan was done for the offseason. He mentioned that the Twins are basically done, with the exception of Winter Leagues, where they're hot on the trail of some more sleepers and rehabbing-type pitching. Two names were mentioned, Johan Santana was no surprise, but former flame-thrower, Alexi Ogando is. He hasn't thrown yet in Winter ball, but he is said to have worked out for perhaps a dozen teams in the last week, reportedly throwing 92-94 MPH (about 3 MPH below where he was in 2012). With Ryan's name being directly linked with Ogando's is pretty impressive, considering the fact that Ogando is in turn being linked with the Dodgers and Red Sox.
  11. jokin
    For the MN Twins organization and their comfort zone for the dollars they've shown they're comfortable to throw around, $6M X 2 is BIG, not simply "cheap insurance." That dollar figure represents the 3rd highest paid position player on the team. Suzuki will likely start out the season playing 70% of the time. I don't know the extent of Molitor's relationship with Suzuki, but with Steinbach gone and Molitor looking for support from around the clubhouse, Suzuki is likely to be relied upon for more game-planning and in-game input than last year, not less. Suszuki isn't going to be insurance of any kind, cheap or expensive, unless and until Pinto can prove that he's the better overall option.
  12. jokin
    BTW, Arcia's team is playing the Aragua Tigers today, which is the team of Josmil Pinto and Eduardo Escobar (although Escobar has been out for the last couple games, after being pulled in the 1st inning from the game on Friday, haven't heard about any injury).
  13. jokin
    Given these ongoing back and wrist injury issues for El Jardinero, it will be interesting to see how much leeway Arcia will be granted by the Twins to possibly continue playing beyond the close of the round robin tournament in the Venezuelan League, which ends this coming Thursday. Arcia's Caribes team is the leading team at this point in the postseason tourney, and could possibly be the League's representative in the Caribbean World Series in February.
  14. jokin
    ZiPS really likes Pinto's chances to succeed in 2015 (and they liked him in 2014, as well... both ZiPS and Steamer had him at 2.7 fWAR-- by contrast, Suzuki got a big contract with a 2.0 fWAR season in 2014). In 2015, ZiPS projects Pinto as a 2.1 fWAR player, with Suzuki falling back to earth with a 1.1 fWAR, a dropoff in his offense is coupled with a drop in Zuke's Defensive ranking from 4.0 positive to a projected -4.0 negative (and practically matching Pinto's defensive projection-> -5.0). I was not in any way whatsoever impressed by Pinto behind the plate last year for the Twins, but I thought he looked much more comfortable and capable catching Alex Meyer when I saw him playing for Rochester late last summer, and he's crushing the ball in Winter League while catching a good majority of the time. The big contract for Suzuki is likely going to dictate the "justification" for playing time at the outset of the season, but I'd like to see Molitor make a concerted effort in finding ways in getting Pinto 400+ PAs in 2015.
  15. jokin
    Blackmon isn't fooling most posters here... and he isn't fooling ZiPS, either, we already have a Blackmon in-house vying for an OF spot: 2015 ZiPS projections Charlie Blackmon 0.5 zWAR Shane Robinson 0.5 zWAR
  16. jokin
    Dang, he looked like an experienced grandeliga veterano on that shot, didn't he? Dialed in with perfect mechanics at the plate (remember, this was his first live swing and hit AB in about a month), no showboating after the bomb, and a full-buttoned collar, as well.
  17. jokin
    Add Duensing and Stauffer to the FA list, with Pelfrey and Hunter, that's potentially ~$22M off the books (and any or all four could all be gone no later than July 31 of this year, for that matter). In the arb department, Plouffe could also be gone by the deadline this year, as well- that's another ~$6-8M perhaps not on the books next year- As for some of the "few lesser salaries", Escobar goes to Arb 1... but... Milone, Nunez, T-Bar and Schafer all probably won't be around much longer, either (another ~$6M gone), the elimination of these 5 guys could really knock down your "known-unknowns" estimated arb number (dependent on what the return is in trade, particularly on Plouffe). Assuming Nolasco could be moved in July of 2016, there's another ~$6M saved from your own quoted $70M 2016 veteran base payroll. Suddenly, you're looking at a potential net team payroll for the entire 2016 season in the $75-$85M range...... So yeah, there's going to potentially be a lot of available room for further spending to really go for it in 2016. Seems like now's the time to start looking over the FA Pool for next year and begin planning accordingly.
  18. jokin
    Let's just make it for Mike Pelfrey and call it a day?
  19. jokin
    Here's the YouTube link of El Jardinero's HR last night for your enjoyment: We tend to dismiss Winter Ball in the US, but starting with the announcer, all the parties involved in this video are taking it quite seriously. Interesting to note that Arcia keeps his shirt fully-buttoned in Venezuela?
  20. jokin
    And let's not leave Vargas out of this discussion of mashers... finally... we are very soon to be regularly serenaded at Target Field by the recurring sound of "bombs away" by the "Power Trio" at the heart of the Twins order. It's reasonable to forsee collectively upwards of 100 dingers or more per season from these three, perhaps as early as 2016,
  21. jokin
    Wonderful. I'd suggest you get that copyrighted, the Twins promotion office is bound to snap it up.
  22. jokin
    Good question. "El Jardinero" is the Spanish form used in the original text, but characterized without capitalizations or quotes. Although "gardener" is the exact translation to English, it seems likely possible that perhaps it's idiomatic to South American Spanish in relation to a baseball player who plays in the outfield... or just for fun maybe... it refers to one frequently "going yard", or of one who is eminently capable of "planting" balls out of the park?
  23. jokin
    Where's Oswaldo? Due to wrist and back concerns, his return to Carribean winter ball was in doubt going into the post-season. But suddenly, he's back in action as the VZL heads into its final week of round-robin action. Last night, Arcia drew a walk in an 8th inning PH appearance. He followed that up tonight with a HR and 2B in 4 PAs. leading his Caribes team to an 8-6 victory. Caribes has the lead among the 5 postseason VZL teams, with a 9-3 record. If you are interested, read the following, amusing, but clumsily-Google-translated article. The passion by the natives in representing their home team, and even from Arcia- AKA in the article below- "The Gardener"- (and country in the upcoming Caribbean World Series) really comes through: http://www.lvbp.com/images/noticias/893Arcia_Oswaldo_03.jpg
  24. jokin
    Thanks, JC. I was thinking the exact same starting OF in Cedar Rapids, which made me wonder why Corcino is being brought in in the first place- other than the depth you were concerned about in 2014, and for the semblance of competition for roster spots. One more for you... among these candidates, who is the first to get the call to Ft Myers? (Both the Miracle and the Kernels project to be thin in true Center Fielders?)
  25. jokin
    Assuming the article I quoted above was correct, and Corcino is likely slotted for CR, at this point can you project the 5 likely OFers starting out on the Kernels roster in April, and who will be the 3 starters?
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