jokin

The Twins were 36-40 against the AL Central. A 4 game drop could knock the Twins below 70 wins. The other big factor that ZiPS might be looking at is the fact the Twins play the NL Central this year, which has arguably become the best division in baseball. http://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/mlb/reds/2015/01/17/national-league-central-division/21937647/

I'm waiting to make my net win prediction, based on who is on the opening day roster, if it's more of the same scholly hijinks as the previous years, than less than 70 is a possibility, but if there are some fresh faces on the pitching staff (Burdi, Meyer, other sundry breakout surprise RPs ,could make a huge difference), plus, Pinto, Arcia, Vargas, Buxton and Sano all have significant contributions at some point during the season, mid-to-upper 70 wins is possible. No one else is talking about it, but I can still envision Torii Hunter ending up primarily DHing and replaced in the OF by some combo of Buxton/Rosario/Plouffe/Mauer/Arcia.

Well... that's a reality check from an outsider. But... 68-94? Really? He makes a good argument about both Santanas being destined for negative regression, but barring multiple year over year collapses by key players, it's hard to see this team winning less games than last year. He must be convinced that the rest of the Central has all improved more in the offseason than the Twins.

Any catcher sightings, yet? Specifically for me, Josmil Pinto?

Cuba turned the tables on the #1 seed in the Caribbean Series, Venezuela, getting the 8-4 win this evening. The Cubans were taking no chances with the prospect of Arcia projecting his power again as he did so dramatically on Friday evening. Oswaldo DHd again, and finished the night going 1-1, plus 3 walks, w/ two runs scored, in 4 PAs. On to Spring Training...

Good quote from Waldo, and one of the infrequent instances where we can directly see that the numbers back up what is being claimed. And Arcia kept his production and plate discipline at a high level (~ .940 OPS), even after coming back from another round of back and wrist injuries. And he even improved on the pure apples-to-apples comparison, year-over-year, in the VWL Besides a ~60 point upgrade on his 2013 OPS, his 2/3 BB/K rate and percentages this year are significantly better than his ~1/2 BB/K rate (26 BB/46 K in 171 PAs) in 2013. It remains to be seen if he's turned the corner, but Ryan and Molitor sure seem to be high on him offensively- the bulk of their concern appears to be in the outfield and playing a new position, and dealing with how Arcia wears his emotions on his sleeve.

This one definitely isn't as pretty as the one much further upthread, but this was his first look at live pitching in over a week and a half. That was a borderline pitch, a little low and away, he did go out there and get all of it. But I'm not sure if he will ever be able to make a living with that approach on major league off-speed pitching on the outside corner (BA of .182 in the outer half of the zone in 2014).

With a birthday of July 8, 1994, he's actually 20, and closer to 21 than 19. His current repertoire is only going to carry him so far in the minors. I still like his potential a lot, but without at minimum, an average major league breaking ball, his value as a major league starter is pretty problematic.

For the night, Arcia was 1-3 with a BB and no strikeouts. More patience and making more contact appear to be things that Arcia has definitely been successfully focusing on. In 284 PAs, Arcia has 40 BB and 60 K, a 2/3 BB/K ratio versus MLB 31/127 in 2014- or approximately a 1/4 ratio.

Arcia's first game in the Carribean Series, played the game as the DH. The win for Venezuela clinched an undefeated first place finish in the round robin portion of the tournament, heading into the single elimination playoffs. (On a side note, Twins farmhand Eric Farris batted 3rd and played 2B tonight for Mexico, and is batting .400 for the Series.)

Kudos to you for your #5 ranking last June 9. The Vargas supporters have been a pretty small group over the last few years. The national writers have either dismissed Vargas out of hand as an inevitable bust or gone so far as to demonstrate downright hostility towards him (as demonstrated by KLAW at the Futures Game, even as Vargas acquitted himself quite well). Some of us were even criticized when suggesting that Vargas be called up for a look-see in the wake of Colabello's collapse and Vargas showing strong plate discipline and OPSing @ .996 in May. It will be very ironic if he is another Smith prospect who reaches his full potential- there might need to be a complete rewriting of the history of the Bill Smith era.

Finally, we can foresee a Twins system soon to be reminiscent of Boston, where the Red Sox have multiple major-league-ready options at the ready at AAA Pawtucket or in AA; with all of the push of talent from underneath, much of the Twins AAAA "filler" will soon have no spots to fill. Shane, would you care to forecast how many from this year's group of position prospects "graduate" for good going into 2016. Even if the top 4 all take care of business in 2015, will they all be assured of starting spots with the big club in April 2016? What's most impressive is even if the top 4 all make it, your remaining list remains impressive. Perhaps no longer in the Top 3-5 farm systems in baseball, but still chock full of potential major league starters.

Both Pinto and Arcia DHing tonight. Pinto reaches twice on hit and HBP (but leaves the game after being hit). Arcia goes 1-4.

Where's Waldo, today? Back in Venezuela, tonight. Starting and playing DH for Caribes in Game 4 of the VWL final playoff series.

http://rlv.zcache.com/cuba_custom_tie-r645b810c879b42ddbf9555d2b31aede3_v9whb_8byvr_324.jpg There was even more than one option to choose from...

Or merely relating Ryan's actual thoughts on the matter, which is exactly what he did in that particular case.

The problem is... that Arica is being shipped over to train on-the-job in LF. Expect semi-disastrous results. ...And that Santana is still considered a possible acceptable alternative when/if the "platoon" fails, tells you all you need to know about the situation in CF. As far as Torii goes, think Willie Mays playing for New York... but with the NY Mets. When you near 40, there is an established pattern that inevitably, everything goes... and fast. I think last season when Detroit played Minnesota, we quite sadly caught early notices of Hunter's coming "senior moments." http://i.imgur.com/zH5YLR4.gif

That's the word I was looking for... but even as they are trying to change the philosophy in the minors- a process that is taking more than half a decade before it's finally accomplished- ie, it appears we won't see May or Meyer in the rotation starting out- that could end up being 3 seasons without dividends from trading away (and not replacing) your only experienced/competent OFers- they don't see the obvious necessity in acquiring a quick/cheap fix in the OF in the hopes of making their current Twins Way philosophy work as originally envisioned. Yes.... "disconnect" works well here.

The Twins pitching staff has had the highest contact rate in each of the last 4 years. Not surprisingly, (both starters and as a whole), they've also had the lowest K% in each of the last four years. They've also surrendered the highest BABIP in 3 of the last 4 years. The defense can only be (partially) responsible for the last stat. But it's management that is responsible for seeing these glaringly obvious deficiencies in both departments and failing to properly address them. The "cheap fix" of the two deficiency areas was/is addressing the defense, and the Twins answer was to pay $10.5M to a soon-40 year old RFer, coming off of a year where he had the lowest defensive ranking in all of baseball.

I don't think you are, at least based on his fairly feeble "defense of the defense" in relation to the press conference at the Hunter signing.

You won't get me to bet against you. I'm at 73-77 wins and sticking with it unless certain things happen in March and April.

Josimil Pinto is the key man for Magallanes in Game #3 in the VWL finals. Catching his 2nd straight game, Pinto goes 2-4, including a HR and 4 RBIs, while leading Magallanes to a 10-3 victory over Caribes. .

I'm on board with you on this. IMO, this looks to be the most easily predictable, and biggest preventable impediment to significant improvement as 2015 proceeds. On the plus-side, if it becomes apparent to all, ie, that CF is the key to tightening up the whole OF situation, we can only hope that Buxton hits the ground running and makes it easy for Terry Ryan to fulfill his Twins Fest forecast for him.

Vlad Guerrero or Boom Boom Balboni? Sorry, as much as I like Walker's attitude and am pulling for him, let's get real here and get down to basics. I think it's fair- and the one thing clearly in his favor- to say that Walker as an athlete is much closer to Guerrero than Balboni (but his OF defense is currently categorized by Callis: "While Walker is athletic and runs well for a big man, he's a work in progress in right field and will never be better than average there...") Walker 6'5" 235# OF SB/CS- 23/5 Balboni 6'3" 225# OF SB/CS- 5/3 Guerrero 6'3" 225# 1B SB/CS- 31/26 And throw in Oswaldo Arcia 6' 220# OF SB/CS 15/7 Balboni was a college player like Walker, so they are both 2-3 years older than Guerrero and Arcia at the same stage of professional development. Here are their numbers from their first 3 years in pro ball: Guerrero Slash: .343/.407/.527/.934 BB% 8.3% K% 10.0% Balboni Slash: .266/.363/.466/.829 BB% 12.2% K% 26.1% Arcia Slash: .312/.364/.552/.916 BB% 6.8% K% 19.9% BABIP .358 Walker Slash: .260/.316/.487/.803 BB% 7.3% K% 25.6% BABIP .306 It's clear that with the nearly 50 point difference in OBP and 5 percentage point difference in BB%, Walker's career thus far doesn't even suggest a Balboni-like career. It's also pretty clear that Arcia's current main impediment that is forestalling his major league career is the high K/BB rate and that wasn't even that much of an issue all the way to his first year through A+ ball. Arcia's issues have become quite apparent at the major league level and are reminiscent of Walker's averages in the minor leagues: BABIP .314 BB% 6.9% K% 31.0% For Walker to succeed in becoming major league starter potential, it's going to necessitate overcoming what seem to be nearly impossible hurdles. Even the career splits don't come down in his favor as a potential platoon specialist (.794 OPS vs. RHP, .790 OPS vs. LHP). I agree with a previous poster, this will be the year that determines if he's still a prospect or not, the odds aren't in his favor.

I mentioned it, without naming names in Post # 18 Hughes had 6.1 fWAR in 2014, and an ERA+ of 112. HIs previous best full season SP totals at NY were 2.5 fWAR and ERA+ of 103. Even if he regresses closer to the 2015 ZiPS projection of 4.0 fWAR or Steamer projection of 2.5 fWAR., Hughes will still have a really good year, but might be perceived as "disappointing" after his career year in 2014. I think you nailed it, if anything, the OF defense might be worse than 2014, which can't be good for Hughes' numbers. I look for another "bounceback" year from Hughes in 2016, when the OF defense... might... finally... be above league average.