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jokin

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Everything posted by jokin

  1. jokin
    Agreed. But age wasn't the point of my post, more that calling up guys without major league experience, no matter their pedigree, doesn't automatically mean instant failure/struggles. Berrios has taken expectations for himself one step farther than just about anyone else, he has publicly made his major league goals clear from the day he was drafted- he wants to be throwing with the Twins by Age 21. Hopefully the Twins don't wait around on Berrios until he's Anderson's age.
  2. jokin
    Write in candidate Glenn Strange:
  3. jokin
    But that's just it, he's shown he didn't have to hit to still make a difference. And at the plate we're only talking about 30-some PAs, most of which were against some of the best pitchers in the game, and some while playing with a significant hand injury. That's no where near clear enough to make sweeping conclusions. Ryan himself noted that Buck's track record has been as a slow starter at the plate at EVERY LEVEL he's played at. When he's back and fully healthy, let's give him at least 100 PAs, and preferably 200 before a decision is made that he needs to go back down to the minors.
  4. jokin
    And yet, we always seem to discount the experiences of those that find quick success, as in the current case of the Indians' Cody Anderson, 14th round pick and completely unheralded. Despite the Indians SP depth, they decided to give a kid with only 3 games of AAA experience a shot in their rotation. And with a little luck, Anderson has ended up throwing his first two games like a seasoned vet, taking a no-hitter late into his last game. Berrios has found success quickly at every level, I would hope he's given every consideration for a shot, and not all-too-routinely held back for the Twins latest raison de jour.
  5. jokin
    Fair enough, and I should have charged rent for the Bandwagon I built this spring for my "Taylor Rogers campaign to the Twins pen"...
  6. jokin
    Uhh, the politician characterization still works with your analogy. If Ryan ends up making the real HOF, it will be more based on the politics of baseball and the Old Boys Club, plus his longevity "achieved" with a club that doesn't fire anybody. And there's no denying that the Hall and the Hall voters, is/are a very political body.
  7. jokin
    I liked everything except the last paragraph: For sure, he needs to go there on rehab, and perhaps a bit longer if he gets off to a slow start (and assuming that he passes a course in AAA in Sliding 101). But he's proven by the eye test that he's clearly MLB ready in the OF, he actually appears to be on the verge of elite CF defense, and his 0.5 dWAR in only 11 games confirms that assessment- he can still be a net help to the Twins if they're still in the hunt upon his return. Regardless of how the Twins are doing, I think he will be best served going forward by having the opportunity to get close to 200 MLB PAs to close out the season.
  8. jokin
    Huh? The absolute apples and oranges comp of all time... But typical, more defense of the indefensible.
  9. jokin
    Or yesterday. Or two weeks ago. Or when Duece first went on the DL in April... How does a relief pitcher with equal K/9 and BB/9 rates of 4.91 still have a major league job? And forget the "split advantage" for a lefty arm... vs LHB here's his slash: .344/.447/.438/(.885). Mind. Boggling.
  10. jokin
    Yep, Sano's clearly not ready. "In Terry We Trust"
  11. jokin
    And he's obviously never been asked or taught to bunt (remember when Buxton said he hadn't been asked to lay down a sacrifice bunt since Rookie League?). This is a major indictment on the Twins developmental philosophies- and we've seen that lack of fundamental soundness played out in recent years with prospect after prospect, as they've been called up and been exposed. Having said all that, as I've posted elsewhere, Buxton still produced a net 0.3 WAR in only 11 games played- he's a freak athlete with a far better future than Billy Hamilton has- Buck's fully capable of learning the remedial lessons at the highest level that weren't taught to him in the lower minors.
  12. jokin
    You forgot the requisite emoticons: :s-instagib:
  13. jokin
    I would hope not. Goodrum is already there.
  14. jokin
    Having seen Chattanooga play in early May, I concur. I'll add a couple of things. Walker hit a towering opposite field homerun going with a pitch just off the plate, but up in the zone, with a powerful, yet efficient swing. Walker has a patient approach at the plate, but it's important to note, he also has the lowest Contact-Rate in the Southern League and the highest Whiff-Rate and Whiff/Swing-Rate, he swings through a lot of pitches, both in and out of the zone. When standing side by side with Travis Harrison, there's no doubt about his athletic frame: http://www.milb.com/assets/images/2/8/0/124409280/cuts/20150510_bjh_2195_salhub8j_9h1jzuff.jpg But this guy's athletic frame is a ripped Babe Ruth by comparison, he obviously generates a lot of kinetic power through his posterior chain, my goodness! Not an ounce of fat here, either. http://www.milb.com/assets/images/0/7/6/124409076/cuts/20150510_bjh_292_xlrkb3xc_aqffvj7t.jpg http://www.milb.com/assets/images/5/6/2/124408562/cuts/20150507_bjh_139_2pch4sr6_9b8csn6q.jpg
  15. jokin
    And therein lies the problem for Adam Walker, Chris Carter has never come close to duplicating his one big year in AA, either in AAA or MLB. Carter with his vastly superior MiLB plate discipline to Walker, has a MLB career OPS of .763 and wOBA of .332- which are right around a 25% drop-off from his AA numbers of OPS 1.011 and wOBA .450. And remember, this was only achieved after apprenticing in AAA over significant parts of 4 seasons. Things could change, or Walker could be the ultimate outlier, but as of now, the projected numbers just don't figure.
  16. jokin
    Plus, Sano missed an entire season due to TJ. He's quickly making up for lost time over the last two months. Through tonight's game: Sano's BB% is 13.3% (Ranked #14 in SL) BB/K is 0.55 (Top 27 in SL) K% is 23.7% ABW's BB% is 7.1% (Ranked bottom 25) BB/K is 0.19 (Bot 4 in SL) K% is 37.2%- WORST in SL That last number of Walker's translates to about a 45-50% MLB K-rate. Unsustainable. It's pretty obvious from these numbers, comparative athleticism and age/experience, which of the two is better positioned for long-term success. Walker is an intriguing candidate, but I'm not sure if he should move up the prospect rankings, Chris Carter is the current AL strikeout King (33.7% career K-rate with an 11.6% BB-rate), and he might be the closest comp. Look at his K and BB numbers in his one year of AA ball at age 22: K% 20% BB% 13.8% Carter went on to spend parts of 4 years in AAA, here's how he did over 1277 AAA PAs: K% 24.4% BB% 12.2% This set of data vividly illustrates just how far away Walker still is from being considered a more viable prospect (plus a year behind Carter at the same stage in their careers).
  17. jokin
    Assuming that you are making a serious point behind your amusing analogy.... This isn't about agreement or disagreement. A strawman argument is one taken to inaccurately represent the opposing side's point of view to the extreme or absurd- in search of constructing an easy, but pyrrhic, rhetorical "victory". That was precisely what was done in this instance. I'm sure you and I can agree and perhaps disagree on many things- and yet still exchange concrete points of view related to the subject at hand in a friendly fashion. No need for "Scarecrow" constructs.
  18. jokin
    Throw out the small little runs of data in June. Sano is hitting an incredible string of offensive success over extended periods of time, both full season and especially the last two months: Stats since April 30 PAs 209 Slash line .315/.397/..618/(1.015) ISO .303 wOBA 450 wRC+ 182 BB/K 0.53 Reached base safely in 43 of 48 games. Season long stats of note: LD% 23% (career high, previous 3 teams LD% ranged from 13.6-14.8%) BB/K 0.54 (within .02 of his highest mark since Rookie League) K% 23.8% (career best since Rookie League) Easily eclipsing virtually all of his AA numbers from 2013, with the exception of ISO. The Lookouts have an off-day tomorrow and return home to Chattanooga. I think there's an outside chance that Sano gets called up to hit in Kansas City on Thursday, especially if the Twins' offensive woes continue in Cincinnati. Two weeks ago tomorrow, Paul Molitor is quoted as saying that in calling up Sano, "it might be two weeks or not until September.... we're looking for consistency." As of May -June, Sano is demonstrating that consistency.
  19. jokin
    Come on, for probably the first time ever, the Twins are actually included in a discussion (without the usual accompaniment of snickers and insults from the press) about a mid-year acquisition of a front-line pitcher. Of course it's highly dubious, but for once, there isn't as much laughter and scoffing at the mere thought.
  20. jokin
    Ahh, there's the rub. Perhaps they can bolster the pen from within and use an expendable pitcher or two in trade to bolster the offense, in which case, you don't have to deal away many, or maybe even any, of the can't-miss prospects, and still get a top-line pitcher for the second half on the cheap.
  21. jokin
    Outstanding, even at mid-day? Understanding boss?
  22. jokin
    Yeah, and only one way to find out for sure. I think everyone, even the strawmen, expected Buxton to struggle at the plate at the outset, especially with the quality-level of pitching that he first encountered. Critics of his promotion fail to acknowledge that he still ended up with a 0.5 dWAR and a net 0.3 WAR due to his overall presence on the field in his first 11 games (over 160 games that would work out to around a 4.0 WAR player)- he's well on his way to being recognized as an elite CFdefender. Sano comes at the relative value equation compared to replacement level vets from the opposite (offensive) direction, he's going to make it based on how far his 80 power tool and 60 hit tool takes him. And in his defense, he has made big adjustments to the defense and pitching strategies designed to slow him down, and in the process has become a better, more disciplined, all around hitter (LD% and BB/K rates at career highs in 2015, even with the slow start in April), all of this, even as he's only seeing about one-third of his pitches in the strike zone since he started on his tear on April 30. Give Sano close to 100 PAs and see if he can make similar qualitative adjustments with the Twins.
  23. jokin
    Who to believe, Kiley or Doogie? Did Kiley allow for anything about potential deals in the works for bonus money to raise that allotment number?
  24. jokin
    That's what makes the Twins actually being a part of this discussion so interesting, but also hard to swallow. If they are really going for it, great. This isn't their usual MO, but it could work out. Pitching is the coin of the realm, and for once in a generation, the Twins might have enough pitching to be both buyers and sellers of the "coin". The age of the top end guy is just a rental, so really not significant. Hughes just turned 29. Gibson is 27. Santana has been signed through at least 2018, He's definitely older, but not going anywhere. For the 5th spot you have: May is 25. Milone is 28. Pelfrey will most likely be gone sooner or later. Nolasco's health is up in the air- I did include him as the possible 5th SP in that TBD slot, but maybe there's a chance he comes back off of his foot injury only able to throw out of the pen, w/ a chance to reclaim a starting spot in 2016. Others in the wings for the near future: Meyer is 25 Berrios is 21 Duffey is 24.
  25. jokin
    Assuming that this SP rumor has any veracity at all, the Twins do have too many prospects than available roster spots going into 2016. I'm scratching my head here like you, but assuming a front-end rotation of Shark/Bucholz/Hamels (pick one) Hughes Santana Gibson TBD has the Twins FO concluded that Milone or May or Pelfrey or Nolasco, or all of the above, are ready and able to fill some of the roles of the "missing 3-4 RPs" plus as trade bait to fill the said holes you mentioned?
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