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jay

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Everything posted by jay

  1. jay
    If the priority was to do anything possible to improve that spot for this season, I'm sure you're right.
  2. jay
    That's the point... You really don't have any proof that Pelfrey "won" this competition and had the rules changed on him. What you have is a salty vet that wanted his way.
  3. jay
    Shane Robinson wasn't signed to be the CF solution. That solution is what I take to be implied in the type of statement that "they should have addressed CF". Obviously, he's not that and isn't intended to be that.
  4. jay
    Well we can easily know who was available via free agency of any type, although that requires mutual interest. If the answer is they should have traded for someone, we should be able to readily identify candidates that would have the right mix of age, contract, and availability. Problem is, that mix is probably a bit different in many eyes. If we're talking about what the Twins should have done, we should be able to talk in specifics. If we can't, it's fair to ask whether or not we're getting to the right conclusion in the first place.
  5. jay
    Because Hicks wins them a bunch more games in April? Really?
  6. jay
    You do realize that you just went on a long rant about the Twins conspiring to rig the 5th starter competition and favor the older player, but that is exactly what they didn't do by sending Pelfrey to the pen... right?
  7. jay
    Who was that?
  8. jay
    2012 was hardly a "rebuild" year either. It was "2011 was a fluke and we can bounce back". The Span and Revere trades before 2013 were the first real "rebuild" moves. I'd agree that, right or wrong, the Twins didn't head-first commit like Marlins and Astros. We might see that approach work (still unproven), but it clearly comes with side effects to the common fan base. In any fashion, the Twins are 2 full years into their rebuild as well and I won't be giving them credit for rebuilding when the record is sub .500.
  9. jay
    Sure. How and who?
  10. jay
    First, I'd be curious to hear Pelfrey's opinion of "outpitched". If it's that he had a better ERA in his 13 innings, the conversation is over. Second, IMO, he would need to demonstrably outpitch the other guys to get the job out of camp. The guy over 30 with just 1 year of team control should be the last worry. Even if he wasn't outpitched and was just... evenly pitched, someone has to be given the job and I see no guarantee or reason why that should be him over the other guys.
  11. jay
    Except where were they the 3 years before that? 13th, 9th, 11th. I think that is almost exactly what a reasonable, realistic person would want to see. Push the payroll budget above your comparable mid-point when appropriate to extend a competitive window. Bring your payroll below that comparable when appropriate to rebuild the young talent base. For a team below the median in revenues (and most others for that matter), that's your realistic competitive strategy. Build, window, rebuild.
  12. jay
    The implied implication from some folks using these numbers is that they either show or prove that the Twins should be spending more on MLB payroll. The franchise valuation and revenues in comparison to MLB (higher-teens) is consistent with what we heard directly from DSP not long ago. In line with that, we can expect MLB payroll to consistently be in that range with some obvious year-to-year or periodical fluctuation based on the current market and team performance.
  13. jay
    One spot left...
  14. jay
    Found an easier way... A registration link! Invite URL: https://yho.com/mlb?l=25663&k=ff54f0b24bd51ddc&ikey=a3470e64fb5ef32a We've made it an AL-only league. A few more teams wouldn't hurt.
  15. jay
    I love me a good prospect, but this is another example of where the expectation level for our prospects is FAR too high. Penciling in any of our M-IF prospects to be better than Dozier is dangerous. The "no financial incentive" bit is ridiculous. Players don't get big, fat, long FA deals on the one season they had before FA. He has every financial incentive in the world to keep playing well.
  16. jay
    I agree with you completely on the risk/reward payoff. A Dozier extension last summer would have had some additional risk, but that's the risk you have to take if you expect significant excess value. It's also why I don't understand the argument that many people were making to wait another year to extend him. The value and incentive is largely gone at that point. The quoted line is the only one I don't necessarily agree with. A few million a year isn't going to mean the difference between getting multiple top prospects and a C prospect, but I'd definitely expect it to result in some degree of better value coming back in a trade.
  17. jay
    No, they couldn't. If Dozier puts up a third straight season like he has, tack on another handful of millions if you're hoping for the same end date. And, take a look for good comparables that waited until they reached arb to sign an extension solely through arb. Good luck. The value for the player in offering a discount evaporates...
  18. jay
    The highest likelihood is that this contract is a 15-40% discount (capturing some regression on the low end and progression on the high end). That seems plenty sufficient from the Twins side to lock in a few years and Dozier gets the guarantee that he's financially set for life.
  19. jay
    So, that leaves... For backup catcher: Pinto, Herrmann, Fryer, Rohlfing For CF and 4th OF: Schafer, Hicks, Robinson, Rosario For last bench bat/utility: Above plus Nunez, Bernier For 5th SP: Milone, May, Pelfrey For 5th, 6th and 7th RP: Above plus Thielbar, Thompson, Graham, Boyer, Hamburger
  20. jay
    Strangely, my occasional doppelgänger in years long gone by. But, more Speed or Matrix than Bill and Ted. In a twist of seriousness, thanks for the kind words earlier and a thread where we could dig into the merits a bit more than the usual pre-determined bunker lines.
  21. jay
    Yep... but Levi..... It's still 130 runs!!!!
  22. jay
    Lol, I wish the second was yes. I think I get what you're saying and now I'm curious. If we replace the observed run differential in the pythag theorem with the BaseRuns (expected runs) differential, how does it change the correlation? I'd think it would be lower than the standard pythag for the same reason WAR is lower. Standard pythag captures some level of sequencing and luck that will get you closer to that team's observed win total.
  23. jay
    You know it? I'm mobile and that's way too hard right now.
  24. jay
    To more directly answer the point... Yes, reducing the 130 runs to some smaller number due to the correlation rate of less than 1 could be one potential explanation.
  25. jay
    Here's a macro look at WAR correlated to wins - http://stats.seandolinar.com/predicting-baseball-wins-with-war/ The correlation factor (r^2) of .77 is quite strong. That correlation is exceeded by a team's pythag record, but that can be expected to at least some extent given that pythag is capturing the sequencing that leads to runs while WAR intentionally remains agnostic. I've seen other studies call the correlation closer to .8 and we can find higher or lower in a given season. In any fashion, a .77 correlation to real world wins is significantly stronger than any standard stats. For example, batting average correlates to wins at .27. As a side note, the correlation between WAR and real wins has been found to be stronger with the current state defensive components included. This is a big plus in the rationale for why the "creators" include it.
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