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jay

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Everything posted by jay

  1. jay
    I'm curious to see what he can do and glad to see the Twins dipping their toes back into the int'l FA market. Also, it would be awesome if we could avoid going all "Chris Rahl" on this and ridicule the Twins for making a minor move early in the offseason.
  2. jay
    I said they have a higher range of variation due to their injury factors. That can result in low or zero output if injured (sub-replacement level on one extreme) or the "upside" of high output if healthy (which exceeds contract value). I don't see how that has anything to do with the Dome, Minnesota or an inefficient market. Price discounting as expected variation increases (aka risk) is the trait of an efficient market. You can find reading about how risk and variation effect price in most any finance or economics book.
  3. jay
    The contract value they sign for represents their expected value to that team. Players like Masterson, Rasmus and Rios all carry significant risk -- no one is denying that. However, it's that variation in expected value that makes their contract value lower. There's also larger potential for them to exceed their contract value if healthy. I only see two alternatives: - Contracts of similar value are going to be for players who might not have health issues, but have a lower perceived ceiling. Hammel and Aoki might be good examples. - Contracts of higher value and longer length. Almost every team is going to be limited in how many of these they can do. These guys come with a whole separate set of risks as we've seen illustrated by Nolasco and a majority of other larger dollar FA contracts. I don't see how either of those are better for the Twins right now than taking some risk on higher-ceiling players.
  4. jay
    Where's the arbitrary line for the free agent discard heap? Top 50? Top 20? Top 10? Masterson, Rasmus and Rios are all anywhere from 15-50 in the top free agent rankings at ESPN, Fangraphs and MLB Trade Rumors...
  5. jay
    Isn't that the downside of ANY player the Twins are spending significant money on? What's the alternative here?
  6. jay
    Yes, but it's not quite the same when you're shopping in a nicer heap. The Kubel, Zumaya, Ponson pile smells a lot worse than the Masterson, Rasmus, Rios pile.
  7. jay
    I'm not sure who those people are, but there's generally additional risk whenever people are talking about upside. Kubel was on the far end of the scale in hoping for upside, as was represented in the minimal cost. I don't quite understand having a negative view of those deals based off that. Does that mean no interest in Rasmus or Masterson either? The Twins are in a great position to take a risk on players that can exceed their contract value.
  8. jay
    Pretty different players and body types. And no, Kubel did not have as much "upside". Power, sure -- every other aspect of the game, no. If we want to highlight upside candidates that didn't work out, is that saying the Twins shouldn't make those deals? Seems to me it's exactly what they should be looking for. How many other options are out there that would be a better fit for a short-term deal? Maybe a couple?
  9. jay
    Let's not make it sound like I'm in love with Rios... because I'm not. I only mentioned Masterson to highlight that Rios has some ceiling as well. Rios can likely be had on a one year deal while every projection I've seen for Masterson and Rasmus says multi-year (and higher AAV), so comparing contract status is hardly apples to apples. Of the OF free agent options, Rios has some amount of upside and bounce back potential... which is more than can be said for many of the other options.
  10. jay
    I'm a bit surprised there isn't more support for Rios. He's another high ceiling guy just like Masterson with WAR > 3 in six of the last nine seasons (something Masterson has only done twice in his career). He had a bum ankle and then a thumb injury holding him back in 2014. Isn't there an opportunity to find good value with a bounceback in 2015? Especially at a projected 1/$7M?
  11. jay
    This is really what I was getting at. If he's prone to allowing significantly more home runs up in the zone (which I think we all painfully recall), it would seem that any advantage gained in getting a higher percentage of outs is going to quickly evaporate.
  12. jay
    Parker, I'd like to highlight this part of the last paragraph: Often with Baker and Slowey, it wasn't. That's probably partly due to the fact they weren't conditioned to do so. Baker's average against might look better high in the zone, but I don't think that tells an accurate or complete story. The chart below shows Baker's RAA/100 (runs above average per 100 pitches) and it seems clear that damage was done against him high in the zone. This same chart looks quite different for a guy like Trevor Bauer. It seems like a stretch to use Baker as an example of someone who should have pitched up more often. I agree in full that the new pitching coach needs to be able to synthesize the data to make each pitcher effective in whatever manner that might be -- strikeouts, contact, pitching down, pitching up, fly balls, groundballs, etc.
  13. jay
    So... like... Ricky Nolasco? Pretty sure that's exactly what they did there.
  14. jay
    Agreed -- and the Twins are definitely not all-in. Why not? I rather like the idea of a Nolasco - Crawford swap for both teams.
  15. jay
    His answers leave me confident that we can expect the Twins' payroll to more commonly rank closer to 17-20 than 24 with the flexibility to go higher when they are winning more, "outperform" the TC market and need to retain homegrown talent (that last one was answered later). I think he pretty clearly dispels some notions we've seen around here about consistently not spending their stated payroll capacity and the impact of Target Field. Thanks for taking the laser eye beams, guys.
  16. jay
    Have the Twins ever exceeded the 50-52% of revenues for payroll guidance in the last 15 years? "Yes, often." [with emphasis] Roughly where do the Twins rank among other MLB teams in their ability to generate revenue? How different would this be without Target Field? "It would be greatly different. In the Metrodome, we were certainly I would say if not the bottom 2 or 3, certainly bottom 5. I would have compared ourselves in the Metrodome to, say, the Tampa Bay situation, the Oakland situation or the Miami Marlins, certainly before they moved in to Marlins Park. At this point, we're probably going to be somewhere middle of the pack to lower middle of the pack, I'd say. In Target Field in 2010, we outperformed our market. I'd like to think if we're competitive on the field, we can continue to outperform our market. I think in terms of baseball teams, we're about 19th when you include the 2 NY teams, the 2 Chicago teams, the 2 LA teams, so, you know, we're performing a little bit below that right now and I think we should be outperforming our market. The reason we're not performing at that level is, frankly, because the team is not cooperating and our attendance has fallen below the league average, which about 2.5M people."
  17. jay
    Why not call him? Call him. Why not interview him? Interview him. Why not hire him? ... No matter what, the final answer there is the Twins are cheap. I'd hope we can get a deeper level of analysis here on TD. I can get plenty of that in the strib comments. I don't see how it adds value to the conversation. Yes, Maddon will be well paid. With all the talk of front office jobs, wouldn't it make sense to think he's looking for more responsibility that just being the coach? Maybe he wants full authority over the 25 man roster? Maybe he wants more? Maybe he wants a guaranteed GM job in three years? Maybe TR doesn't want to cede any of that to his manager and maybe, just maybe... it's not definitively 100% about the money because the Twins are so cheap.
  18. jay
    Okay, a phone call will not physically hurt anything. No small children will suffer if TR calls Joe Maddon. That doesn't mean it accomplishes anything. Is knowing he called all it would take to feel satisfied here? I'm almost sure the answer is no.
  19. jay
    Dial his number to confirm what you already know? Why do we assume that an MLB GM isn't connected enough to know what he's looking for? That seems ridiculous. "Uh, hi Joe. I already know you're looking for x, but could you verify that for me and then also be sure to start mentioning to the media that we had a chat?" Really??
  20. jay
    Is it possible that Maddon is looking for more than just the opportunity to be the coach for a different team making more money? That would certainly make sense to me based on what we've heard. That's all I'm saying. It could very well be about the money, but let's look at the whole picture as well.
  21. jay
    I highly doubt that TR doesn't know what Maddon is looking for. It doesn't take officially reaching out to Maddon to find that out. I probably have to go with TR isn't interesting in meeting his needs. That could be money, but could just as well be about the terms of the position and the amount of power. Not sure yet, but we'll have a better idea based on where he ends up and what it looks like as he says he's willing to wait for the right opportunity.
  22. jay
    If they wouldn't give him $5M, I'm not so sure an interview under the false pretenses of either side pretending to be interested is a good idea.
  23. jay
    Do you think the Twins wouldn't give him $5M if he wanted the job? I think they would. I also think he'll end up getting more than that.
  24. jay
    I might have to take back what I said earlier about so many people recognizing that he has a choice. I wish I could be more of a skeptical pessimist. Simple odds say I could blast the Twins for every guy they aren't going to get and be right most of the time.
  25. jay
    That speculation is going to happen no matter what the Twins say or do. It'll happen even if the Twins do interview him, even though you've already highlighted why an interview isn't even really necessary. Heck, it'll happen even if TR says he offered him the job (...didn't offer him enough). I don't see a single real-world scenario other than hiring Joe Maddon that manages to avoid some people saying it was about the money.
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