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jay

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Everything posted by jay

  1. jay
    I agree with you completely on the risk/reward payoff. A Dozier extension last summer would have had some additional risk, but that's the risk you have to take if you expect significant excess value. It's also why I don't understand the argument that many people were making to wait another year to extend him. The value and incentive is largely gone at that point. The quoted line is the only one I don't necessarily agree with. A few million a year isn't going to mean the difference between getting multiple top prospects and a C prospect, but I'd definitely expect it to result in some degree of better value coming back in a trade.
  2. jay
    No, they couldn't. If Dozier puts up a third straight season like he has, tack on another handful of millions if you're hoping for the same end date. And, take a look for good comparables that waited until they reached arb to sign an extension solely through arb. Good luck. The value for the player in offering a discount evaporates...
  3. jay
    The highest likelihood is that this contract is a 15-40% discount (capturing some regression on the low end and progression on the high end). That seems plenty sufficient from the Twins side to lock in a few years and Dozier gets the guarantee that he's financially set for life.
  4. jay
    How many pitchers are 6' 9"? Meyer is already an exception to start with...
  5. jay
    Where can said new roster be found? Both Buxton and Sano show up on the Lookouts roster page. Polanco and Kepler at AA as well with Berrios at AAA. AA http://www.milb.com/roster/index.jsp?sid=milb&cid=498 AAA http://www.milb.com/roster/index.jsp?sid=milb&cid=534
  6. jay
    It seems a bit extreme to conclude that this team is being run in the present at the sacrifice of the future because there's some sort of possibility that Torii Hunter will play some outfield in the last few months of his one-year deal.
  7. jay
    Anyone know of a roster that tracks who remains in the big league camp?
  8. jay
    Where are these few good months going to come from? I thought the age curves show Hunter should've been dead about a decade ago?
  9. jay
    That's exactly the thing -- the 25th man is a fill-in role player. There's already a utility IF guy and there's already an extra outfielder. Wouldn't he be more useful as someone with one or two really good tools to be used in the right fill-in spot (whether that's defense or power or whatever) rather than across the board mediocre? Getting away from the 13 man pitching crew leaves open a position player spot we are entirely un-used to. Mind us now that neither Nunez or Herrmann are that tool specialist that I'd prefer.
  10. jay
    I'd be fine with that, but then what happened to the 4th outfielder as a pinch runner candidate? Assuming that'd be Hicks or Robinson?
  11. jay
    One year contracts and blocked very rarely belong in the same conversation. It's pretty well established that the Twins have a present day need for a corner OFer without sufficient in-house options ready for early 2015. If he somehow comes back in a starting role next year (which I doubt), it'd be due to some scenario resulting in the same situation.
  12. jay
    What happened to Jordan Schafer?
  13. jay
    What happened to Josmil Pinto?
  14. jay
    I learnt something today! I always assumed the contract was guaranteed after tendered in arbitration, but alas, tis not true. I'd like to see Hermann in that 25th man spot if Santana is the SS. However, I'd probably prefer he be the CF.
  15. jay
    You're right that Rosario out hit Hicks thru A ball. We've also seen the Twins put a lot of weight on success in AA as a big hurdle to being ready for MLB. Rosario doesn't have that (yet).
  16. jay
    I agree with the assessment of Hicks and Schafer. I'd disagree on Rosario. In hindsight, most think it was detrimental to Hicks to throw him into CF for 2013 -- so why do the same now to a guy that has shown less than Hicks did at that point? Hicks could at least say he had AA success on his resume.
  17. jay
    We know that more prospects turn in to busts than All-Stars. I hope to be wrong, but I do believe Mr. Hicks is headed for the former. Few prospects in the history of MLB have been able to become successful regulars after the size of struggle he's had at the MLB level.
  18. jay
    It's probably not. The signing bonus pools for each team are sized on their previous year performance, so hypothetically it was supposed to provide an advantage to teams that are struggling. In reality, some teams have blown past the bonus pools with little regard for the penalties due to the perceived value of these prospects even after the penalties. I'd welcome a draft and increase in the eligibility age for these int'l kids. The challenge there is that individual teams wouldn't have much of an incentive to run academies like they do now. MLB would be wise to maintain that development system at a league-wide level.
  19. jay
    Fair point on the first one. Is there a known way to adjust xFIP for framing? The Twins pitchers underperformed to their collective xFIP as it was and that's basically saying their xFIP should have been even better due to the fewer strikes/strikeouts and more walks with the framing they got. The second one still seems relevant. It's not defense impact on xFIP, it's defense impact on xFIP minus ERA. So, how much of that difference is attributable / correlated to defense and how much is luck (ie LOB%) or something else.
  20. jay
    Any one know of a study that correlates xFIP-ERA to framing and/or defense in general? I'd be curious to know if and how much we could point to framing or defense as the root cause for the difference between a pitcher's expected results (xFIP) and actual results (ERA). Relevant to all of our chatter about the outfield defense as well.
  21. jay
    Take a look at the work that Baseball Prospectus has done. Their framing statistics are adjusted for all the things you've mentioned here and more -- the count, the pitcher, the umpire, pitch type and a regression to the mean. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22934 Yes, both Pinto and Suzuki were really bad at framing last year. Suzuki was 2nd to last behind Salty (out of 105). Pinto was way up at 93rd. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1667334 Note that page also has some blocking statistics where Suzuki deserves a little credit as being 7th best.
  22. jay
    You do that by appropriately challenging young players. Hicks hasn't even done enough to show he deserves the second [wait -- THIRD] chance that you're railing against players getting.
  23. jay
    I was referring to the idea of platooning Rosario in your earlier post. Hicks is certainly much closer to the point of being platoonable than Rosario. On Hicks though, I do prefer him in AAA to start the year. If he comes north, his days off should obviously come against righties but it's still hard to see him in a full out platoon this year. I'll add that I don't agree we need that value this year. If we're in the pennant race after the ASB, then there's a much stronger argument to do whatever it takes -- including platoons with developing players.
  24. jay
    Is Polanco a good option to be the 25th man, second utility infielder starting less than once a week? Is it realistic to think he's ready to (or should) step in as a replacement for a productive MLBer? As a 21 year old who has had 37 games at AA, I'm going to emphatically say no on both. Polanco (and the Twins) would be much better served by having him develop in the minor leagues playing every day.
  25. jay
    There's no way they are going to keep a fairly well regarded prospect on the MLB team to be part of a platoon and not get the development of facing both sides. That's not unique to the Twins.
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