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jay

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Everything posted by jay

  1. jay
    Two questions: 1) Why not? A three-year deal might be just right to span the bridge to when the kids are adjusted to MLB and performing in their prime. 2) What's aging? Most first-time FAs are in the 29-32 age range and I don't really see many candidates for three-year deals who are much older than that. Any specific examples? (I guess that's technically a third question.)
  2. jay
    Inflation is a b.
  3. jay
    You could probably say that about the vast majority of free agent pitchers, but here we are. You can spin it that way, but really it's about fitting skills and talents to the best environment. The "moving out of the AL East" bit would be said about most anyone moving out of that league and certainly isn't specific to Phil Hughes. His flyball tendency on the other hand is something that isn't a great fit for the physical layout of Yankee Stadium (not an indiction of his skill) and fits your narrative perfectly of someone "who should be able to perform against the best, but for some reason haven't". If not Hughes, who?
  4. jay
    Right, we can't really make conclusions based off one guy doing it well. At the same time, there don't seem to be a lot of examples out there. Given how the stats have looked over a large sample for both Hicks and Florimon, I don't see how it could be much worse batting single sided.
  5. jay
    I guess the thread failed at that. This thread is a perfect example of what a lot of people are fed up with (and why I've posted less and less) -- far too many threads devolve into the exact. same. story. and debate about the front office, usually with the exact same posters. What hasn't been said on that already? We can tie almost any and every topic to front office spending in some way. Why can't we have a thread to just talk about Suk-Min Yoon and what he could turn out to be.... without rehashing the exact same commentary on the front office?
  6. jay
    This fangraphs article on Victorino's grand slam got me thinking about Hicks: The Grand Slam That Almost Wasn?t | FanGraphs Baseball Why? Well, they point this out: "Victorino has switch hit for his entire major league career, but gave up batting left-handed in early August... Since giving up batting left-handed, Victorino has had one of the most productive stretches of his career." The grand slam Victorino hit against Veras to send the Sox to the WS? Did it batting righty vs a righty. Looking at his numbers, the only adverse effect has been a decrease in his BB/K rates while he's put up monster numbers. The biggest knock I've seen against Hicks giving up switching hitting and batting righty full-time is the adjustment period, maybe a full season or more. If a guy like Victorino can successfully make the change away from switch hitting in mid-season and promptly put up impressive numbers, is this maybe an overrated concern?
  7. jay
    Ironically, the data doesn't support "protecting the plate on 0-2". Out of every possible situation, you're most likely to get a ball called in that count if the pitch is close.
  8. jay
    Parker, why would you assume that? How wouldn't the Brewers record have been even worse without the calls? We don't have a great way to quantify the true difference it caused, but you can't tell me it doesn't have an impact on each team's record. That's like saying 'well, the Twins have hit 20 fewer homers than the Cubs this year, but their records are the same, so it wouldn't have mattered if they hit 20 more'. A bit more extreme, but the same line of reasoning.
  9. jay
    This article puts the Angels on Tanaka -- Los Angeles Angels scouted Masahiro Tanaka, Japanese pitcher, according to report - ESPN Los Angeles
  10. jay
    Those are some big assumptions, but we can hope they come true.
  11. jay
    Outside of Yankees (Robbie Cano) and Cardinals (Matt Carpenter), no other team has an OPS at 2nd greater than .788. These guys don't grow on trees. I'll agree with the others that this is premature. If we're looking for near MLB-ready pitching talent, a near MLB-ready Rosario next offseason is probably more valuable and we get more time to evaluate if he's blocked by a still-performing Dozier.
  12. jay
    I think there's absolutely an argument to be made that metrics do (can?) improve play. Better defensive positioning and better pitching/hitting approaches could be directly attributed to understanding one's abilities via metrics. Some of that might overlap with technology (ie - pitchfx), but they aren't mutually exclusive.
  13. jay
    Yes, please. All of the above.
  14. jay
    I tend to think we'll see Gardy dust off the ol' TR retirement speech 1.0, which I'd be perfectly fine with. Gardy has never been known for being great at handling young players, which we'll have plenty of in short time. I'd like to see someone with a little more energy and advanced field approach.
  15. jay
    9/11 vs A's: Bases loaded, Lowrie hits a ball down the first base line that is initially ruled a foul (and dead) ball. Upon protest, umpires confer and award him second base with two runners scoring. How is this scored? On what basis do the umpires decide which bases to award? Can a dead ball really be overturned? If so, Cuzzi??
  16. jay
    Have to agree as well. I'd be reasonably satisfied if that were a mid- to higher-end guy (Johnson/Hughes/Jimenez) for a few years at $10M+ and more of a lottery ticket on a mid- to lower-end guy with more upside than a Correia.
  17. jay
    What if the money that TR left on the table is repurposed as Tanaka's posting fee?
  18. jay
    That's a fair point. I used 'range' later because of that. Although I wouldn't support it, it's easy to see the possibility of a further drop from this year. Even getting to a floor of $60M or $70m would require that $10-20m go somewhere. I think we all hope it happens, I'm just trying to acknowledge that things look a little different and have something stronger than the same hope we went into last off-season with.
  19. jay
    So again, is there anything else to support your views outside of 'TR has never done it'? If the answer is no -- that's perfectly fine, and you're entitled to that opinion. Factually, the only way payroll isn't $50m (or in that range) next year is for Ryan to do things differently either through free agency, the int'l market, or taking on salary in trade. I think it has to happen.
  20. jay
    The ideas laid out in the article that this thread is attached to? You're correct that he hasn't done anything yet, but the whole premise is to show why the scenario isn't the same. I'll be happy to eat crow if payroll is $50m next year, but I just don't see how that'll be.
  21. jay
    So.... no?
  22. jay
    These aren't terribly unreasonable positions to take, but Nick lays out a pretty good case for why that won't be. Is there anything else to support your views outside of 'TR has never done it'?
  23. jay
    I agree with your concepts, but I'll have to disagree on Hughes. Some people use the card you're talking about, but that would be said of basically anyone that pitched in the AL East. I think upside exists. He was a first round pick and reached #4 on BA -- plenty of folks say he hasn't reached his potential.
  24. jay
    How's this? Twins intend to scout Japanese pitcher Masahiro Tanaka in coming weeks | 1500 ESPN Twin Cities ? Minnesota Sports News & Opinion (Twins, Vikings, Wolves, Wild, Gophers) | Sportswire: Minnesota Twins
  25. jay
    I've made this argument in a few places and this topic was about to be my first blog post. Thank you for sparing everyone, Nick. Nice article.
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