Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jay

Provisional Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,544

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jay

  1. jay
    Spot on. Remember that guy named JJ Hardy?
  2. jay
    The Cubs are in practically the exact same position as the Twins. The only reason they'd entertain trading him is because they won't be WS contenders in the next 2 years and they are trying to expedite their rebuild. I highly doubt they'd want MLB talent (ie Dozier), let alone MLB scraps (Fien, Mastroianni). They're going to want prospects. Otherwise, why trade him and still be in the same position? If anyone doesn't think Theo is smart enough to see his real value (ERA be damned), you're fooling yourself.
  3. jay
    That's what is so great about the internet. You can make any sort of conclusion or assumptions you want! Problem is, there's no way to make a solid, evidence-based case otherwise based on the track record (outside of quotes, which so often get manipulated to fit a narrative). I'm afraid even should there be examples soon, it'll be mocked as 'that one time' or some other fault.
  4. jay
    I have no idea where you're coming up with that. You asked about Burnett, so I showed why not and made a larger, relevant point about the challenges of getting quality free agents to bad teams.
  5. jay
    Sure, you can always be the bad team that overpays to get a guy to sign if you want a contract around like Russ Ortiz, Gil Meche, Mike Hampton, etc. I could give you just as many sources saying how hard it is to get free agents to a terrible team like the Twins are right now. Heck, TR specifically talks about it in today's Strib. http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/231680191.html
  6. jay
    I agree with the idea, but it's that commonly overlooked thing that free agents have -- choice. From MLBTR's free agent list: "Burnett will be even more picky than Kuroda, as he's deciding between the Pirates or retirement." Even for as much as I'm sure we all love Minnesota, it's usually not as simple as waving dollar bills around.
  7. jay
    Carlos Ruiz, anyone? 2 year deal?
  8. jay
    I'm in agreement with the idea of your point, but I'm not sure converting his WAR directly to 1B values is fair either. The whole idea of the move is that he'll stay healthier and more productive by not catching. It'll be interesting to see how his production responds to this.
  9. jay
    Can't say I thought this would actually happen (yet)... We now have the equivalent of John Olerud for the next 5 years at $23M per. I'm not sure that's such a great thing.
  10. jay
    Given attendance was 2.5M, that nicely works out to $10 for every single ticket. I either want that $1620, or this...
  11. jay
    You're right about the years. What doesn't quite make sense to me is focusing on age as a qualifier because as the article states, "Remember, we are looking not only for 2014, but we are looking beyond", but then the recommended pitchers are only guys that any team would sign short-term. I'm not sure how that fits the "beyond" portion.
  12. jay
    Interesting look. I think you're ignoring a lot of injury history here, which isn't generally great to do when you're talking about long-term deals. Also, K% is a better indicator than K/9, but close enough for this purpose. Velocity is fun to talk about, but it doesn't guarantee anything. There's obviously correlation between velocity and K-rate, but it's the K-rate that more concretely ties to results. It kind of seems like double dipping to only look at those two variables. Plenty of good starters don't average 92 mph with their FB. I guess I don't understand why we'd want to exclude them?
  13. jay
    Yes, you missed something -- Part 1: 46-50 "Before we get to the list and the series, a quick reminder of my definition of a prospect. First, I follow the guidelines that Major League Baseball uses for rookie of the year eligibility. That is, 130 big league at-bats for hitters and 50 innings pitched for pitchers. There is also a service time piece so that relievers that spend 2/3 of the season with the big league club yet only rack up 40 innings do not quality as a prospect any longer." Gibson, of course, pitched 51 innings. A relatively arbitrary cut-off that makes it fun to think about what this list and the Twins ranking compared to others would look like if only he'd gotten 4 fewer guys out. I'd put him at #6 here, personally.
  14. jay
    Excellent piece by Ben Lindbergh from Grantland on the continued evolution of technology and umpiring. I'm keen to the idea mentioned of enabling umpires with real-time feedback from PitchF/X. The home plate umpire would retain final say on balls and strikes along with the full suite of other responsibilities they handle. Any other views? Also included, a link to the scientific study demonstrating the accuracy of PitchF/X (which some here have questioned). Ben Lindbergh on the possibility of machines replacing umpires - Grantland
  15. jay
    I like the names there as well. In a similar piece, KLaw put out the following designations on SPs: Best Value -- Hudson, Haren, Johnson Worst Value -- E. Santana, Hughes (surprisingly), Kuroda, Lincecum (to emphasize the overpay by SFG) Trade Targets -- Price, De La Rosa, Anderson, Gallardo (Any of the last 3 seem realistic for the Twins?) The write-ups are here for those with Insider.
  16. jay
    It looks like this thread is in the 'Article Archive' as opposed to 'Minor League Talk' like the others? This group leaves us with Buxton, Sano, Meyer, Stewart, and Rosario -- a pretty consensus (and impressive) top 5, I would imagine. I think they'll be in that order with maybe the pitchers flipped. Excited to read the write-ups.
  17. jay
    Gotta agree with you, John. Most of the crowd here rants about how the Twins need to move one of these corner bats -- Willingham, Doumit, etc -- to free up space for the kids. Not sure how signing Kubes doesn't add to the old-guy log-jam.
  18. jay
    Having taken a lot of criticism due to recent on-field results, is this part of a larger effort from the Twins to shed light on their process and operations that leadership is confident in?
  19. jay
    That'd probably be a better question for TR (which he has answered) given that Jack had nothing to do with that decision back then. In line with mike's wit... motion to strike the question from the record.
  20. jay
    There's no comparison in the results he's gotten, but he was certainly a pull hitter prior to being an MVP. Teams plan their approaches on guys not far in to their rookie seasons, so I don't quite see where the Twins were dead wrong in trying to get him to develop an ability to handle the outside pitches even back then. That exact ability is what has allowed him to remain so successful.
  21. jay
    Hi Jack, if forced to choose just one, what is your single favorite publically-available stat to measure offensive performance and why? (ie - BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, RC, RAA, OBA, VORP, TAv, any of their weighted brethren, etc)
  22. jay
    Yeah, those are fair points. If we assume the Twins will focus on starting pitching, I [thankfully] don't see many opportunities to do so. Kuroda / Burnett / Hudson -- staying with current team or retiring Arroyo (37) / Colon (40) -- too old for any sane team to give 3 years Haren (33) / Halladay (37) -- too injured for any sane team to give 3 years Chen (36) / Westbrook (36) / Capuano (35) / Vogelsong (36) -- too marginal for any sane team to give 3 years There's some other/better options for short-term fliers, but I'd probably be okay with most any of those guys on a 1-year, 2-year max, deal.
  23. jay
    He may not have been performing at MVP/HOF-type rates with the Twins, but it'd be hard to say he wasn't established as a pull hitter even back then. His minor league track record and MLB experiences showed as much. Pitchers don't need much time to adjust their approach to hitters and surely did so even during his Twins days. The timing can be questioned as you've pointed out, but the fact remains he's been extremely successful doing exactly what the Twins wanted him to do and that for which they are faulted.
  24. jay
    Sure, he ripped the Twins, but idle speculation? Published by multiple sources with connections to both players? I've seen you get pretty worked up over folks trying to dispute interpretations of less concrete sources. Whether it's due to Gonzalez or not, he has clearly developed the ability to hit the other way over his career and his stats reflect success in doing so. Granted, it's generally not groundballs the other way, hence the shift that is commonly used on him. He may have ripped the Twins for trying to get him to do it, but it sure has worked.
  25. jay
    The funny part about ripping the Twins for trying to get him to use the whole field is that his resurgence in 2011 after three less impressive seasons is tied to Adrian Gonzalez convincing Big Papi to... use the whole field. Here and elsewhere: Clubhouse Insider Boston Red Sox News | Boston Herald That said, I do think the Twins made a mistake in letting him go -- both then and now.
×
×
  • Create New...