jay

This is spot on. I'd be happy to see the Twins sign Drew. It would feel good to fix it NOW and keep money out of Pohlad's pocket at the same time. I'm just not convinced we can't get to that same conclusion when it counts by getting one of the guys that will be available next year if still needed without committing years and dollars to Drew today. Considering Drew's shortfalls, it might even be the better option.

If you use the exact same playing time distribution that FG is using and simply use Oliver instead of Steamer, you end up with 19.7. That's a pretty significant difference. You're welcome to take 17, but 20 feels a little closer to me. It doesn't take much going right from there to reach the 22 that I originally mentioned.

Your point is absolutely right if you're looking at the 26-27 upside. I think the 17 out there with Steamer right now is too low -- Mauer (falsely low on defense at 1B, come on), Willingham (can't see he played injured), and Dozier (even if the league adjusts, I don't think he'll regress that far) specifically. I'm taking the over on 17, what about you?

That's certainly possible, but definitely not as written in stone as you're making it out to be. As I'm sure you know (and may even be referencing), FG introduced a new feature that provides depth charts and projections for 2014 using Steamer. The Twins are projected to pick up 17.1 WAR from their non-pitchers which, as you mentioned (cited?), would be bottom quintile. Go through it position by position though and tell me there isn't significantly more upside than downside: C - 3.0 WAR, feels about right 1B - Mauer projected for only 3 WAR with a lower wOBA than we've seen from him in a longgg time and a lot of negative defensive value. Look at Oliver... 2.3 WAR higher based on basically just defensive value. Mauer could be +2 WAR above the Steamer projection very easily, +3 with a good year. 2B - Dozier projected for just 1.3 WAR after putting up 2.8 last year, including his dismal start. Again, Oliver disagrees significantly here pegging him to match last year (still including that start). He can easily be +1.5 here by only matching all of last year, as high as +2.5 if he maintains his June-Sept pace from this year when we saw his mechanics and plate discipline change. SS - Still no bat value, but Florimon brings the D. Steamer has him regressing there while Oliver doesn't. Very easy to be +.5 here, +1 with even the slightest offensive improvement at all. 3B - Relatively upbeat on Plouffe, but keep Sano in mind here and the possibility of what he could bring relatively early on. LF - If Hammer is healthy, these projections have to be his floor. Their models can't tell that he played injured last year. They see an aging slugger who declined badly last year. Wouldn't be tough to be +1 here, +1.5 if he rebounds a bit more than I think he will. CF - Presley projects decently from what we've seen. Can't ignore chance of Hicks breaking out or even Buxton coming up later in the year. RF - Arcia also projects out decently, but plenty of room for him to blossom beyond those numbers as well. DH - Kubel gets zero love here. Twins can easily pick up .5 here, +1 if Kubel shows up. So, extremely easy to see the Twins closer to 22 WAR on offense with upside for even as much as 26-27. 22 would put them right at league average. I don't think we're as bad off as you're making it sound. If 17 and bottom quintile is the over/under, I'm betting heavy on the over.

It'll depend on how Cruz, Morales, and Drew come out, but I think we'll see qualifying offers play out different next year for more players of that caliber (and many of the SS available next year). Saying 'they'll all get qualifying offers anyways and the Twins won't have a protected 1st rd pick next year so just get Drew now' is awfully subjective to a lot of ifs. I could probably prove I'm an astronaut with fewer ifs. Based on how much more the Twins can spend according to your very own numbers, I'm not sure it's fair to say any of them will be unaffordable either. I'll be happy if the Twins make some more moves to upgrade the team via trade or FA, but to answer the original question in the thread... I don't feel some big onus for them to do it right now and they've already exceeded my expectations.

Given the lack of great fits left on the free agent market, I certainly wouldn't rule this out. Trader Terry has pulled trades out of his hat before. Remember how surprised we were to see 2 CFs moved last year? The Twins far and away exceeded my expectations this offseason. Even though I'd love more, it wouldn't be fair to let that cloud my satisfaction. Those preaching patience are on point, IMHO. Drew would be okay and is really the only halfway decent FA fit left, but not signing him won't change how great this offseason was particularly considering there's no less than 5 shortstops that are likely to be available next year that could very well be better choices. Cruz and Morales are terrible in the field and can hit some, but really don't solve much outside of the need for some to spend more money. The only other FA move I can see making any sense is another SP upgrade and dealing away Correia.

Correct you are, as usual, good sir. Thanks!

From the numbers we were looking at the other day, it'd be easy to say Dozier does the same thing. As I look at it more now, their numbers are both a bit more to the extremes (Arcia especially), but not really bizarre or anything. Parker, where'd you get the .510 for Arcia when ahead? Splits via BRef, MLB: Ahead - .297/.463/.494 (.957) Behind - .202/.210.294 (.504) Dozier: Ahead - .312/.460/.618 (1.078) Behind - .183/.197/.254 (.451) Arcia: Ahead - .365/.492/.719 (1.210) Behind - .143/.149/.171 (.320)

This is the best argument for signing Drew, IMO. We all know Florimon isn't anything special and there isn't anything ready to be harvested from the farm. Even just the opportunity to have an above-average shortstop on the roster probably isn't likely otherwise for the next few years unless it is via trade or FA next year. I'm hoping for a guy like Trea Turner, but Drew still makes sense timeline-wise in that scenario. I see it boiling down to 2 options: - Give Florimon this year to see if he can show anything more with the bat than he did last year. If not, you assess your 2014 draft and minor league depth while most likely signing a stopgap SS from next year's decent FA crop at the position. - Sign Drew this year to something like a 2 year deal with a team option and continue to develop the pipeline. I don't see any prospects who would be harmed by 2 more years of development time. Given the Twins payroll flexibility, I'm okay with either but the first option means I'd want them to help the offense in some other way this year.

Interesting -- thanks, Parker. At the end of the day, FB% only correlates at something like 75% from year-to-year for hitters around the league. We can guess that he'll see fewer next year, in which case Mr. Dozier will need to be patient and allow that BB% to tick up. I think the one thing we can be certain of is that the league will definitely adjust in one way or another and it is up to Brian to respond to that.

One more thing to add, FG has the MLB FB% at 58% for last year with Dozier seeing 60%. Not a big difference depending on your source.

When you look at Dozier's splits between being ahead and behind in the count last year, you walk away feeling like he'd be just fine with seeing more offspeed pitches early in the count (and thus ahead more often). That assumes he can continue to lay off those as he showed great improvement in 2013 more similar to his MiLB numbers. I think he's in a good position to adjust well. Ahead: .312/.460/.618 (1.078) Behind: .183/.197/.254 (.451) His approach seems pretty simple: A - Fastball early, hit it B - Offspeed early, get ahead and wait for fastball, then hit it C - Missed early, oh sh!t

ESPN's Jayson Stark published his 2013 edition of 'Strange But True' which recaps all of the wacky things that happened in MLB this year. I love reading it each year. It reminds me of why baseball is such a fun game to watch and follow. http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/10210242/mlb-strange-true-2013 Our local 9 are mentioned just once in reference to the unfortunate feat accomplished by our bullpen and rotation: At least we aren't that poor city of Cleveland?

I don't think we, as super internet Twins fans, get to decide they'll go straight from being one of the worst teams in the league directly to in the playoffs. I'd love that, but I'm not sure it's realistic. I do think Pelfrey can provide value in the contract that he signed. Maybe there were some better options, but I don't think it's black and white in that price range and we also don't know the context behind any of those other negotiations. I think, overall, it's a step in the right direction. Get better in 2014 and keep marching forward from there.

Do it! As others have said, he'd be an option for some depth later in the season and nothing hurt. Worst case, his shoulder is done and he gets to retire as a Twin.

A strong case has been made many times to show that Pelfrey will put up better overall numbers than he did last year. Saying you can't call that an improvement because he was already here seems to ignore context. Even if these signings don't put up above average numbers, I'm pretty sure it will still end up categorized as an improvement. Your last line assumes that playoffs is the only acceptable outcome for next year. I'd be okay with even playoff contention and continuing to move forward from there.

It's not that your points aren't valid to at least some extent. The whole roster isn't going to be All-Stars on any team and I'm not quite as ready to give up on a few of them, but I fully get where you're coming from. Here's to a decent '14 and a lot more fun in the near future.

I agree with a lot of your points, but will have to agree to disagree on the conclusion. Worst-to-first just doesn't happen all that often. We can't play the draft pick game forever. The farm is already stocked. It's time to strive for improvements where we can find them and that doesn't usually mean you're in the WS the next year. It's time to start building on some success, fill in from the farm, and make some targeted acquisitions. If it doesn't work, then you restart the cycle.

Pelfrey has a stronger track record, albeit not impressive, than any of the other back-end options. There's still room for one of them to make it in the rotation if they deserve it. If these last few years have proven anything, I think it's that a lot of these guys are replacement level. WAR is an easy snapshot. If Pelfrey continues to average 1.8 WAR (2008-2013, TJ 2012 excluded), it's not hard to see how that's good for the Twins even at $5.5M compared to his replacement-level counterparts. The two-year deal makes this even more likely to turn out as a positive for the Twins. It also sets them up well with a departing starter for each of the next four years that they can fill from inside if there's a viable candidate.

Something like 13 of your last 14 posts have been full-on bashing a few specific players. I think we get it.

I was with you until that last sentence. You're right about his stuff and his slider, but he's also shown he can be a valuable contributor. He's not the next All-Star ace, but he has plenty of opportunity to provide surplus value at his $5.5M salary. I think he'll definitely outperform his salary over the next two years and it was a smart signing. Everyone rode the Correia signing last year (myself as well) with a theme that signing him might be okay if he wasn't the "big" signing of the offseason. This year, Pelfrey (who is better than Correia) was the THIRD best signing. Let's keep the perspective straight here.

Players can get stuck in an unending loop of being claimed and DFA'd, without the ability to actually hit a roster and play baseball due to the time involved between each. Not so bad in the offseason, but not fair to the player during the season. Some good, easy fixes proposed there and in the link to correct it. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/04/should-mlb-change-its-waiver-claims-rules.html

Molina is an elite framer and thrower, Suzuki is good at fielding his position and blocking pitches -- both are well regarded, but in kind of opposite ways. I do think Suzuki has a better chance to put up better offensive numbers than Molina though. Suzuki has been better against his same-handed righties than lefties over his career. I would hope to see Pinto start vs every lefty and Suzuki vs a fair share of righties.

I don't think anyone is saying that MLB umpires consciously discriminate in their calls. If it was a conscious effect, it probably wouldn't exist. The immense amount of research done on this shows clear differences in the number of strike calls based on the count in particular. If every single call is truly and solely based on watching the ball, as you seem to propose, how does this exist? That same effect causing differences, whatever it is, has been measured across pitchers, batters, umpires, and catchers. The pitcher has the largest effect while the batter has the smallest, umps and catchers are in the middle. Pitch framing attempts to measure the differences due to the catcher. You can even find many video examples that highlight mechanical differences between catchers on each end of the spectrum. The valuation efforts are commonly questioned (by me as well). I'm not certain, but I don't think the existing attempts are able to remove the pitcher, batter, umpire, or even count effects and instead rely on averages. The batter and umpire effects become null over a large enough sample, but the pitcher and count effects matter a lot. Question and debate the value of the effect, but I'm not sure how one can question whether it exists. All that said, I'm incredibly glad that Ryan Doumit will not wear a catcher's mitt for the Twins again.

In one line, you dismiss a point by ignoring his career numbers (although the Z-Swing% in '13 was a career low and still 2% below the time period you cited, while only 2.5% below his career average). In the very next line, you dismiss a point by citing his career numbers. I'm not sure how that works, but all I was trying to convey is that the Z-Swing% is more of an outlier than his BB%. This probably holds water as his GB/FB rates also started declining at that time as he hit more flyballs. Here's to hoping the Hammer his fully healthy and has a great season.