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jay

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Everything posted by jay

  1. jay
    The top 6 seem like shoo-ins to the Top 101, but does it stop there? All the way to Polanco at 9 would even seem reasonable.
  2. jay
    No, he doesn't. That's an old, lazy cliche. He hit into a DP in 11.3% of such opportunities to do so last year. That's less than both Carlos Gomez and Ben Revere. He's almost an ideal #2 hitter.
  3. jay
    I'm with you, Nick. Except... Tony Plush, err, Nyjer Morgan. Scratch him from any CF options pleeez. He signed a deal in Korea a few weeks ago and has had 41 ABs the last two seasons. He's not an MLB option despite a recognizable name. As you mentioned though, hard to see where it won't be Schafer and/or Hicks.
  4. jay
    Someone mentioned Cuddyer's nice signature earlier and it reminded me of this Killebrew-inspired story that he started signing that way because of a Killebrew scolding: http://minnesota.sbnation.com/minnesota-twins/2011/5/17/2176192/michael-cuddyer-reminisces-about-harmon-killebrew I also learned in a different article about the signature story that Cuddyer wore #3 with the Rockies to honor Harmon. Neat. As a third, semi-related point... I've always man-crushed on that Cuddy-Buddy Mikey Baseball.
  5. jay
    Good stuff, Seth. I see Buxton and Berrios with a little better odds than what you've mentioned here. The Twins haven't been afraid to aggressively promote top-end talent that performs. Buxton - CF is awfully thin (again). If Danny Santana is really a SS now, the odds of Hicks and Schafer being bad enough that they want to call up Buxton look pretty good. Also, if he'd be ready enough to come up in May 2015, I think there's a good chance he gets a September look. The 40th man on the 40 man roster in September isn't worth holding him back if he's ready and the options won't matter. I think Buxton is closer to 75%. Berrios - This kid is determined. He has dominated. He could get a call as early as mid-season. Present day, you've got Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Gibson, May, Meyer and Milone clearly in front of him. Pelfrey, Stauffer and Darnell are some other potential rotation filler he could easily jump this year. Teams end up using a LOT of starters across a full season (12 last year, average of 10.6 since 2010). If he's dominating again, I see at least a September start or two as very possible with the same rationale on the 40th man. I think Berrios is closer to 60%.
  6. jay
    I see a few tiers here: 1 - Buxton, Sano 2 - Stewart, Berrios, Meyer, Gordon (maybe 2b) 3 - Polanco, May, Rosario, Burdi Really, I'd be fine with swapping guys around in those tiers and not take much issue with the ranking. The difference between trying to rank and project the 7th best prospect from the 8th best prospect is pure guesswork at best -- just look at previous lists. Multiply that by 50 for trying to distinctly differentiate between something like 23rd and 24th. I guess I like Sickels' method with using grades for that reason.
  7. jay
    From a guy who is so big on giving prospects time to adjust, I don't understand the Dozier distrust. 2012 was his adjustment. 2013 and 2014 were good to great. Why does in-season variation matter? I don't think you'd find many players without it... I do get the age and team control piece, but obtaining options on free agency years still have a strong likelihood of being quite valuable.
  8. jay
    If there's one thing that is clear, it's that there isn't a consensus among the audience here on how it will turn out. I'll keep hoping it's May with Meyer and Pelfrey in the pen plus Milone at AAA.
  9. jay
    I read it the exact same way. I wasn't sure if it was just wishful thinking or not, so thanks for at least confirming I'm not the only one.
  10. jay
    Fine, add in Duensing AND AB Walker. Boom. Done deal.
  11. jay
    The venerable Strib posted a Q&A with Terry Ryan. His response to a question on pitching is below. I read it as: - He acknowledges Gibson, Hughes, Santana and Nolasco as having rotation spots - May and Meyer are "about his turn" and "have plenty of minor league innings", but he also says "reach down" about them - Milone and Pelfrey are "the type of depth you're going to have to have" to make it through the season. So, who is going to be the fifth starter coming out of spring training and why? ---------------------- Q Do you need more quality arms these days than you used to? A Historically, I think it takes quite a few pitchers and I don’t think it matters if we’re talking about 1990 or 2015. You always need quantity, and if you have a combination of quality and quantity you’re in very good shape. ... For the full article, click here.
  12. jay
    Aside from not being an ex-Twin, shouldn't this be a reminder of Kubel? If the Padres waived him, he might be interesting as another minor league deal that would hopefully turn out better. For much more than that? No!
  13. jay
    The "cost" for acquiring Quentin or Maybin is going to be essentially zero. Smith is the only one of the trio that might cost a little something.
  14. jay
    http://mweb.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24910042/pirates-pull-surprise-win-bidding-for-power-hitting-korean-ss-kang $5M bid, 3-4 year deal @ $5M per. I'd take four of those to one Moncada.
  15. jay
    No.
  16. jay
    While that's a logical answer based on the current system, it's not how I read the initial response. I think having a number of teams go substantially beyond their limit has thrown off the tiers in the pool, making it harder for teams to find a 16 year old that fits in each intended slot. The other side of that is to say who cares, you should spend all of that pool no matter what.
  17. jay
    Why is that the magical threshold?
  18. jay
    He could regress by half his WAR total from last season and still be easily worth that money. Surprised they pulled the trigger, but pleased. The "spread it around" approach has had better results than dumping a ton of money into a couple guys.
  19. jay
    Dozier R Mauer L Hunter R Vargas S Arcia L Plouffe R Suzuki R Santana S Schafer L
  20. jay
    Seems a bit ridiculous to tie that player development (or lack thereof) to one MiLB manager.
  21. jay
    The downside risk and decline for free agents is already priced into that $6M/WAR figure. With how much risk there is here, I think I'd need to see his odds of being a 5 WAR guy (top 25 players in MLB) at closer to 50-50 to think $100M or $120M wasn't bat **** crazy. There's just not a lot of room for decent $/WAR production at $100-120M.
  22. jay
    That's on the MLB free agent market with proven MLB players. The risk factors are significantly higher for a 19 year old int'l prospect. You'd be promising no less than $100M for 6 years of MLB control. The few free agents that get that kind of money are established 3+ WAR players. I have no idea how to accurately price that additional risk, but you'd need to believe in a high likelihood of more than 3 WAR a year to justify it... which is something few top prospects materialize to reality.
  23. jay
    What for? According to TR, Hunter could handle a few games there if needed. *ducks*
  24. jay
    Keep him in AAA until he demostrates success there and the determination to be a pro.
  25. jay
    If it's truly minor, at least they are playing it extremely safe. In that case, it doesn't hurt to let him stay and taste playoffs (even if it's just winter ball).
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