stringer bell

There really isn't much there at third base in the system, although one of the shortstops or second basemen could move over there. It appears to me that whoever becomes the regular third baseman for the Twins this year (most likely Lee or Lewis) could probably stick there for several seasons because there really isn't anyone to push them out.

He'd be my pick to DFA right now. Not a huge loss if claimed and if he's not claimed, he might accept a DFA to St. Paul and be available to do what he does for the Twins later in the year.

Uh huh, so you see the glass half empty and think Baldelli is terrible with bullpen management. Every bullpen has volatility and every year we see guys come out of nowhere to be huge contributors. There are precious few guys that can be counted on year after year and those guys make good money once they hit arbitration. The Twins have two guys with great stuff who have been durable in the last three years (Jax & Duran). They have three guys who have lost a lot of time to injuries, but have been effective when fully healthy (Topa, Stewart & Alcalá), plus they have a guy who was very good a year ago (Sands). Adding Coulombe, who had two really good years with the O's after being satisfactory previously for the Twins and A's gives them seven guys who can pitch in late innings. In addition to that, they have quite a few more good arms who may or may not amount to anything. I fully expect some missed time for the relief staff, particularly Alcalá, Stewart and Topa and wouldn't be surprised by regression from Sands or Coulombe, but there's a good amount of talent there to augment a solid starting rotation and there's depth in the minors. I said in an earlier comment that I think they've got a good BP with more than average injury risk. I'll stand by that. I have not tabbed them a the best bullpen in the majors or the AL or even the Central, but I think their BP will be a positive and I think adding Coulombe helps.

I think the Twins will choose the person to be exposed that will NOT be claimed. I know Funderburk and Headrick have value because of their handedness, Henriquez has value because of his relative youth and Canterino because of his upside, but somebody has to go. Maybe it will be a position player, but I still think it'll be a pitcher and we'll know shortly after Coulombe's signing is official.

The only way Castellano ends up in the minors is if the Twins make a deal with the Phillies, which will cost them either money or a prospect.

Agree that there can and should be plenty of room for a good left handed relief pitcher. The fact of the matter is that except for the elite ones, relief pitchers are really tough to predict. Alcalá had pretty good success last year, but didn't sustain it for a whole year, Stewart was lights out in 2023 (in limited innings) and Topa was also very good in 2023. If they also hit their ceiling along with Sands, Jax and Durán, it will be a very good, perhaps elite, bullpen. The Twins have assembled a very high upside bullpen at a very reasonable price. I think the BP carries more injury risk than most, which should lower projections and expectations.

For right now, they have to take someone off the 40-man roster and that means exposing them to being claimed by any team. In addition, if they DFA someone that has already had one DFA, that guy is free to declare free agency as opposed to being on the St. Paul roster.

There seems to be an imbalance in the 40-man roster, with 23 pitchers (counting Coulombe). I would expect they'll designate a pitcher in the short term. Tonkin and Henriquez don't have options.

First things first, they have a full 40-man roster. They need to trim someone to make room for Coulombe on the roster. As far as Opening Day spots, I still believe injury will take care of most of the excess arms, but decisions will have to be made.

84 is in the neighborhood. It's going to depend on injuries, of course. The Twins are counting on a lot of unproven players, which is why they shouldn't be favored to win the division.

Late in the game, I will put this payroll blueprint together. I've updated the salaries with the arb settlements. This is a very little changed roster--adding only first baseman/outfielder Connor Joe and choosing Gasper to win a utility spot over Edouard Julien. The principal center field backups would be Martin and Castro. Shortstop backup would be Castro or Lee. C: Ryan Jeffers ($4.55M) 1B: Jose Miranda ($0.80M) 2B: Brooks Lee ($0.80M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($1.63M) SS: Carlos Correa ($36.00M) LF: Trevor Larnach ($2.10M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Matt Wallner ($0.80M) DH: Mickey Gasper ($0.80M) 4th OF: Austin Martin ($0.80M) Utility: Willi Castro ($6.40M) Utility: Connor Joe ($2.50M) Backup C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M) NA: Dead Money Here ($0.00M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($21.50M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($3.00M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($3.55M) SP4: Chris Paddack ($7.50M) SP5: Simeon Woods Richardson ($0.80M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($4.12M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.87M) RP: Griffin Jax ($2.33M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.50M) RP: Cole Sands ($0.80M) RP: Justin Topa ($1.22M) RP: Louie Varland ($0.80M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.80M) NA: Dead Money Here ($3.00M) Payroll is 2.96% over budget

A lot of "facts not in evidence" IYAM. We can suppose that Miranda's slump came from throws at third base or maybe it was getting beaned or maybe it was general fatigue. Lee's performance might have suffered solely from his back issues or it might be something else. Again, it seems you've made up your mind on why all of these players struggled. I agree with most of it, but not all. I think it is time for Ryan Jeffers to step up to 2/3s usage as the catcher (about 100 games in the season).

There shouldn’t be scholarships for anyone that hasn’t played a full year IMHO and I think Julien needs to earn his way back to the majors as well.

I’d say it was way to small a sample to say whether Castillo “filled in adequately” last year.

I’m not ready to write off Martin as a lost cause and I really hope he can stick around and use his good speed, since the Twins have so few fast runners.

I expect the Twins will probably sign someone like Connor Joe for small dollars (<$2.5M), He can play both first and outfield and hits right handed. Dunno if he would be a better player than Margot and would hope that he doesn't stand in the way of prospects. Joe is a lower priced and younger Mark Canha.

I am not opposed to Lewis ending up at second base or first base. However, it doesn't make much sense to move a guy with just over 800 innings of experience (and little time in the minors) to another position only to move him again before the season is over. This is especially true of a guy that for a year and a half looked like he could be a perennial All-Star and face of the franchise. As I said before, I do expect Lewis and Lee to flank Correa for most of 2025 (knock on wood for good health) although I don't know which will be on his left and which will be on his right. If Keaschall forces his way into the lineup, then first base has to be a landing spot for someone.

I don't think Manny Margot fits the typical aging scenario. Margot lost a whole bunch of speed due to knee injuries and is no longer a premium defender. It is not typical for a guy to fall so far so fast and Margot's decline almost certainly is related to his loss of speed. In fact, I suspect some of his bad routes to balls in the gap were the fact that he hadn't quite fully adjusted to having only average speed after having elite sprint speed before his injuries. I also suspect Latin players who age out early might have lied about their age. That said, I certainly agree that the skill set for Gasper is marginal. I do believe that, unless the Twins make some position player additions, it will come down to keeping either Julien or Gasper and Gasper will have the advantage of being a switch hitter and someone who could conceivably play a few innings behind the plate. One of the things I will be curious about when pitchers and catchers report is if Gasper will don the catcher's gear or if he will be considered only an infielder.

I’d add third base as another position where Castro is at least decent. Looping back to the post by @DJL44 I think it’s quite possible that Castro may be the best option at second to start the season, but someone (perhaps Lee, maybe Keaschall) could step in fairly early in the season. If Lee looks great in Spring Training, Castro could be the primary left fielder.

Ian Gibault stays with the Reds on a minor league deal. He pitched in three games for the Twins in 2021. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/01/reds-re-sign-ian-gibaut-to-minor-league-deal.html

IIRC, the Polanco trade netted enough money so that the Twins could sign Santana. One way of looking at the deal is that the Twins got DeSclafani, Topa and Santana for Polanco. Even though they got nothing from Topa and DeSclafani, Santana's production was greater than Polanco's. I'm not sure I'd go quite that far, but the two salaries were significantly less than what Polanco was owed. Margot was a different transaction altogether (and it really didn't work out).

Martin had an arm injury two or three years ago and missed a lot of time, but didn't have surgery IIRC. His arm has been rated as below average since. Perhaps another year of recovery will help the arm strength, but I doubt he will ever be considered as more than a "break glass in case of emergency" shortstop mostly because of his arm. I can't find it, but Reusse wrote a column about Martin suggesting he would be a good CF last year during spring training, but the results last year were subpar to be sure. Instincts really can't be installed and if his instincts are lousy, I doubt his good speed makes up for that. Whether it is from hitting or taking free bases (walks and HBP), Martin needs to get on base a lot to make up for less than average power. I thought has base running was okay last year and I think he was only one of two or three that were viewed as plus base runners. Again, I think he needs to be better than slightly above average to be a real asset. With the dearth of speed that the Twins have, I think it would be good for a faster runner like Martin to play a greater role, but he's got to perform. I think 2025 will be his last chance to establish himself.

The Twins were among the better teams at putting the ball in play last year, one year after setting an all-time strikeout record. Did their offense improve?

I come down firmly on blaming the front office for lack of speed and athleticism. If Baldelli had more guys who could successfully steal 85% of the time, he’d use him as Castro was used on the bases in ‘23. They have guys whose best skill is their “hit tool” and somehow they have a premier shortstop (acquired in free agency) and two high first round and all of them are slow runners. Who are the best situational hitters in baseball? How do you develop that skill? I suspect the best situational hitters are the best hitters.

I have really mixed feelings about most of this. Hitting the ball hard gets the best results and all approaches seem to work great if you’re talented in the first place. The team is not blessed with great speed or athleticism. They’re not going to steal hundreds of bases and if they’re recklessly aggressive on the bases there will be a lot of guys thrown out. With the average for a major league fastball accelerating every year, situational hitting gets harder and harder. Seeing runners in scoring position with none out get stranded isn’t just a Twins phenomenon, it’s league wide. Maybe more focus will help, it did for reducing strikeouts. Or maybe different personnel—so far very little change there.