stringer bell

This will include a bit of a 2014 blueprint, some prognostication and some thinking outside the box. I would like to see some other predictions for the coming season. 1) The Twins starting rotation will add two free agents. However the most improvement will come from within, with improvement from Kyle Gibson, emergence of Alex Myer, and a bounceback from one of Vance Worley or Scott Diamond. 2) Joe Mauer will be a contender for both a Silver Slugger and Gold Glove. He will exceed .900 for OPS and 20 for home runs. Mauer will be the Twins lone representative at the All-Star game at Target Field. 3) Josh Willingham will be traded after gaining some value with a 2014 that more resembles 2012 than 2013. 4) Josmil Pinto will not make the club out of spring training. He will be in the majors by Memorial Day and play more games at catcher than any other Twins receiver. 5) Aaron Hicks will start the season in Rochester and start somewhat slowly, but will be with Minnesota by the All-Star break. 6) The bullpen will be seen as far less effective in 2014 than 2013. Casey Fien and Caleb Thielbar will regress significantly. 7) Byron Buxton won't be recalled until September at the earliest. 8) Oswaldo Arcia will get demoted to Rochester one more time before he really "gets it" and becomes a force in the middle of the Twins' lineup. 9) Miguel Sano will be promoted before midseason. His batting average will be below .250, but he will show great power and pretty good plate discipline. Trevor Plouffe won't be on the Twins team by September 1. 10) Brian Dozier will follow up his "breakthrough" by increasing his batting average, but not hitting for power. Eddie Rosario will be promoted in Sepember and share time with him at second. My guess is that the team will improve it's record after another slow start and that there will be a lot of optimism for 2015 after a good finish.

I think the Cubs would be a tough trade partner for the Twins, because their needs and strengths are similar and they, too, are rebuilding. Billingsley and Gallardo both look intriguing to me. I suspect there is something seriously wrong with Ricky Romero, and the Twins record with reclamation projects seems to have bottomed out lately.

Jack, one question that you've been asked where I haven't seen the answer is in regard to fielding metrics. Does your group use any of them and which do you see as being valid measures of player defense?

I take issue with two points made above: 1) "Platooning AJ and Pinto" means Pierzynski is the regular catcher. The left handed hitter would start somewhere between 110 and 120 games, that is a full workload for a catcher, particularly one in his late 30s. 2) "Add a questionable guy like Johan, Colby Lewis, or Josh Johnson". Johnson and Lewis might be questionable, but Johan Santana is beyond questionable. The chance of Santana ever being a capable starter probably falls somewhere between Rich Harden and Joel Zumaya making comebacks. If we want an ex-Twin, it should be Scott Baker. If we want an ex-Cy Young, they'd be better off with Doc Halladay.

I've mentioned him a couple of times already, but Ryan Hanigan of the Reds sounds ideal if the Twins want to go slow with Pinto but make him the regular by season's end. MLB Trade Rumors has a story on him today, it mentions not only an outstanding caught stealing percentage, but also good skill at framing pitches.

At one point a big topic on BYTO was who was better--Boof or Baker? I was solidly in the Boof camp thinking he had an out pitch (curveball) and Baker didn't. It turned out that Baker has had the far better career and that Boof really never came back from his injury with the Twins (shoulder?). I guess one just has to realize that the washout rate for pitchers always has been and will continue to be high.

Why are there so few SS options every year? Because by the time they reach FA, most of them are well past their prime and not worth the big money, even though Reyes and Rollins (to name a couple) did cash in. Drew is IMHO declining and certainly not worth the contract he will get.

I KNEW it was you!

I posted about Hanigan on another thread. I think he makes a lot of sense for the 2014 Twins and certainly wouldn't be as sure an out as Drew Butera. He is coming off a bad year, but his lifetime OPS+ is 90, not too bad for a backup catcher.

Sano: Someone offered up the opinion that there was absolutely no reason to start Sano in the minors in 2014. The answer is that there is--and it is the year 2020! Holding Sano back at least three weeks leaves him under team control for 2020 when he be about 27(?). Keeping him in the minors until past midseason avoids super2 arbitration and changes his salary and contract to the team's advantage as long as he is a Twin. That is not even counting the benefit he might enjoy from playing part of a season in AAA.

Colabello-Parmelee: Besides the "how acquired" and "how old" there is the defense aspect. Chris Parmelee is a capable right fielder and a decent first baseman. Colabello is neither. The other factor of note is handedness. With "franchise makers" Buxton and Sano as righties along with Dozier and Pinto, it would seem that adding (or keeping) left-handed sock would be important over and above Arcia and Mauer. In a platoon situation, Parmelee might thrive. If Colabello is platooned, it means he is a bench player who gets probably 40 starts guaranteed when a lefty starts for the opposition. My observation is that both players are flawed and won't amount to much, but that Parmelee has the better chance of being a productive regular. Colabello not so much, but if he were to thrive it would be one heck of a story.

Hammer!!??

One more batting title almost certainly gets him there--3 as a catcher plus another--and he may not even need that. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Mauer win a batting title in the next 2-3 years.

I don't hate the idea of bringing back AJ. I don't know if he would accept a role where he started 50-70 games. I don't think he is any better as a DH than Doumit.

The Reds signed Pena and have an extra catcher. His name is Ryan Hanigan. He is supposedly a better version of Butera--defense first but certainly not as weak a bat as Sweet Drew--and for those of you that worship at the WAR altar, he has a lifetime 6.9 WAR in 400+ games. Lifetime 90 OPS+ but coming off a poor year in 2013. Hanigan is 33 and arbitration eligible and a free agent after 2014.

While Mauer could perhaps play third or a corner outfield spot, he really projects to be an outstanding first baseman. I can't say he would be great at the other corners and the risk for injury probably goes up at the other positions. The important thing is to get Mauer in the lineup as often as possible and first base is the best alternative. Add in that there is no incumbent or hot prospect in the upper minors and the decision is a slam dunk.

After Mauer's concussion, I went 100% onboard with him moving full-time to first base. I echo what many have said here that having him play first for 140+ games is better than having him catch 80, DH 25 and play first for 20. I think Mauer's offense will tick up a bit, that the catchers will hit about league average.

Twins Daily posters need a nemesis. Butera is gone, so they need some light-hitting false-hustle guy like Punto (I know, I know, he has some skills) to oppose. This is just like Democrats needing the Tea Party.

I can't see Aaron Hicks or Sano starting the season in Minnesota. In fact, I would give a better chance to Sano than Hicks. Sano is coming off a fine minor league season and has progressed each year. Hicks is coming off an, at least, disappointing season wherein he wasn't recalled from Rochester. Hicks was promoted to the big leagues after a successful season at New Britain, coupled with a very good spring training. Next year, he will be considered coming off a poor season. Even if he's outstanding in the spring, the Twins can't and won't repeat their mistake of promoting him without success at the immediate lower level (AAA). Presley starts the season as the CF probably basically platooning with Mastroianni. Plouffe starts at third with a pretty short leash and also dependent on the early season success of Sano in Rochester. I am also not a fan of Colabello. I don't think he'll ever be able to hit major league pitching and he's poor at first and brutal in the outfield.

I doubt they sign four free-agent starters, but I suspect your lineup blueprint is pretty close. We can only hope that a couple of guys take steps forward as Dozier did, because the offense was almost as poor as the pitching in 2013.

Shortstops too. Hardy's .738 OPS was Dozier-esque and his OPS+ was 97. Jed Lowrie was the only AL SS with better numbers than JJ, however and he didn't hit as many long balls.

Torii Hunter, David Ortiz, JJ Hardy and Michael Cuddyer all won Silver sluggers for their 2013 seasons. Congratulations to them. Joe Mauer won his fifth for the Twins.

I certainly agree with Seth that there is talent in the system to man the #4 and #5 spots in the rotation. I would think it is more than possible that youngish guys who have already had success in the majors--Diamond & Worley--might bounce back in 2014. I do think that big Mike Pelfrey could be a #3 guy though. He got through his post-TJ season healthy and improved as the season went on. I don't consider him in the same category with aging used-up veterans like Zito and Chen.

I suspect Hart remains in Milwaukee, at a discount. The position player I think the Twins should go at hard is Kendrys Morales. He is a DH/1B, who has remained healthy the last two years, a switch-hitter equally strong from both sides of the plate, and he is "only" 30. If the Twins were to make Mauer the everyday 1B, Morales could easily slide into the DH role, if not, he could play 1B regularly until the Twins come up with a replacement bat . I am on record that Mauer should be moved to first, in which case Morales would be primarily a DH.

Regarding Hicks, I can' see any way that he will start 2014 in Minnesota. He was promoted to Minnesota on the basis of a strong 2012 in AA and a very good spring training. While Shane is saying his season wasn't a failure, it was assuredly below average. His 2013 wasn't a springboard for starting the season in the majors, and given his performance last spring training and subsequent poor performance, a strong spring can't be used to justify starting him in the majors. Hicks absolutely needs to perform well at Rochester before being promoted.