stringer bell

Just a reminder, the regular season is six months long. The guys that start the season and play in April may well be forgotten by August. If none of the young guys start the season with the Twins it will be a small disappointment. If none of them step forward by mid-season, it will be a bigger disappointment no matter where they start the season.

I pretty much agree. However I don't see Pinto DHing much and only pinch hitting occasionally and then only in late innings. There should be very little need for a third catcher.

I watched most of the broadcast today and I was struck by some of the comments by the announcers and guests. From hearing them talk, Bartlett is almost assured of a roster spot--Gladden was talking about Bartlett changing numbers and such. IMHO, he has far less than a 50-50 chance of making the team. Also, Probus and Gladden were talking about Pinto DHing and hitting for power. It seemed as if they were guaranteeing Suzuki with the starting job. I know the Twins brass has talked up Suzuki as the starting catcher, but there has to be some competition in the spring, doesn't there? I don't see Pinto as a part-time DH and I don't want to see situations where neither Suzuki nor Pinto can leave games because there is no back-up if the catcher is injured. Perhaps the Twins are willing to use Pinto as the alternate catcher and have Suzuki pick up a majority of the starts at the beginning of the season, but they don't really see him as another Doumit, do they?

Escobar was with the Sox for over a year and he played mostly third base. I think that is a function of the players in front of him there, but the Sox thought he was competent at third. I wouldn't object to him starting a few games at third against right handers and I would expect that he would be superior to Plouffe in the field. I would think that Escobar is in front of Bartlett in any battle for a utility position, but if both Bartlett and Escobar can play a decent outfield, the team might now be able to go without a utility outfielder (assuming Hicks gets sent to Rochester).

I think Gregorius (sp) profiles as a pretty good hitting shortstop and he's younger than P-Flo (had to use that!), so I do think it would be an upgrade. The question, to me, is how much value Pinto has. He wasn't regarded as much of a prospect until his last two years, which have been very, very good. I think he can be an above-average regular as soon as this year. If the Twins don't share that opinion and think they can sell (very) high on Josmil, then they should pursue an AZ SS (shooting for Owings, but settling for Gregorius) and offer Pinto as the main piece in exchange.

Well, getting another year of control is an issue. Pinto has a month of ML service time and I fully expect him to spend April in Rochester. Beyond that, he only was in Rochester for 19 games and about 75 plate appearances. I expect that he would benefit a bit from another month in AAA. It isn't fair to him to delay free agency, but all major league teams do it, from the Yankees to the Marlins.

I've seen references to the Twins carrying 13 pitchers in print. While I don't doubt the sources, I hope the Twins are trying to keep the market for their out-of-options guys warm. The top returning starter is Correia, who threw 185 innings last year and has a solid record of durability. They added three starters, all of whom are viewed as durable innings-eaters--Pelfrey in his second year after TJ, who is 30 and has four seasons with more than 180 innings, Hughes, and Nolasco, who has exceeded 180 innings in four of the last five years. They figure to have at least Swarzak in a long reliever role. I just don't see the necessity of having eight guys in the bullpen. The rationale, of course, is to keep Deduno, Diamond, and Worley on the 25-man roster. If two of these guys are in the bullpen, the Twins would have essentially three long relievers. That is all ridiculous if the goal is to bring the best possible roster north with the tools to win the most games. Of course, a lot could happen in the meantime. People could get hurt, guys can implode and pitch their way off the roster, or trades can be made. However, if nothing really changes, there will be too many pitchers (out-of-options) for too few spots. A fourth bench player would be much more beneficial that an eighth bullpen arm.

We fans have been teased by players who have come to the Twins and performed. Most of the performances have exceeded projections followed by a big regression to the mean. That a player has done well tells me that there is hope that they can sustain performance. Hope doesn't get it done, obviously. Scott Diamond was called up by the Twins in 2012 and was their best starter. He had an ERA+ of 116, won twelve games, pitched a shutout in 173 innings. He had the lowest BB rate among qualifiers in the American League. Trevor Plouffe struggled mightily after going up and down several times during his previous season. Plouffe was given a chance to play third base as a last resort for the Twins and responded with a power surge. He had a torrid six weeks, got injured and so far hasn't come close to duplicating his power numbers. Chris Parmelee had a good 2011 season at AA New Britain. He was a September call-up to the Twins and then went off in garbage time to the tune of a 183 OPS+ (1.013 OPS), displaying power and patience. Since, he hasn't come close to being that productive. Josmil Pinto had two straight strong minor league seasons and was recalled in September of 2013. He had a fine month, with an OPS of .963 (165 OPS+). It remains to be seen whether he can back this up. Are all four of these guys mirages? Can any of the guys who have floundered since their hot streaks salvageable? How long can a team wait on them?

I have penciled in Bartlett as the 25th man. In order for him to make the team, he needs to be more than a shortstop and he needs to hit. I know he's been taking grounders all around the infield and both he and Escobar are being told to take fly balls. I wouldn't mind having JB back if he can hit like he did for the Rays and play all around the diamond.

I have to say that I was among those that thought the "whiny baby with less than elite talent" should have been released. I am totally wrong about Perkins. In addition he seems like a good guy and a good teammate. And the cherry on top is that he is a little bit interesting as compared to most of the guys on the roster.

I listened to ninety-something year old Sid Hartman saying that the Twins should have signed Nelson Cruz as a free agent today. I thought since free agency started that if the Twins wanted a bat-first free agent, they should sign Kendrys Morales. Morales had a 123 OPS+ in a pitcher-friendly park last year. His lifetime OPS+ is 120 and he is a switch-hitter with no discernable platoon splits. He will turn 31 in the middle of the season. Morales would be an everyday DH who could start at first when Mauer gets a day off. I wonder is Morales is amenable to a one-year deal or perhaps one year plus an option. He would cost that precious second round choice. With Cruz signing for a low number, I can't see Morales getting much more.

No question, Oxtung made some good points. Hicks made the team in 2013 on the basis of having good tools, having his best minor league season, and having a fine 2012 minor league season. Since he fell somewhere between disappointment and failure, we can discount the spring training performance and since he is coming off a poor 2013, his promotion couldn't be based on his previous season. The Twins aren't going to platoon him with a LH hitter or bring him up as a fourth OF, so he needs everyone else to fail miserably or be injured or he has to be beyond good in spring training games.

Despite the tics and twitches, still my favorite relief pitcher. Seems like a nice guy, to boot.

Escobar is a utility guy, Florimon is a shortstop. If the Twins acquired Drew to play SS, Florimon is limited or gone IMHO.

We saw Mauer take more big rips and swing and miss more last year. I expect that to continue. Last year's strikeouts might have been a bit of an anomaly, but I wouldn't be surprised if Joe fanned 100 times this year in 150-160 games. With that many Ks, I can't see .350, but I can see another batting championship. Fresh legs and more PAs should yield more slugging--I think somewhere between 20 and 27 homers, probably about 24.

Let's see if I can summarize most of the current threads here. The 2014 season is not lost, but it is most important that, contrary to last year, a transition is made towards youth an improvement. All of the roster and transition debates seem to be about what course to take. That is, whether to go with the highest-upside guy right now or to help his development by going with a lower ceilinged guy. I think there are at least two factors at play here and the priority each of us has dictates how we feel about a certain debate. One priority is development--is it better for Gibson, Hicks, Pinto etc. to play every day (take a regular turn) in Triple A or is it better for them to throw these guys into the fire? Another factor is competitiveness--which players acquired or going north will help improve the W/L ledger for the Twins? A third factor is cost--some of us (myself included) are operating on the premise that money "saved" now can be spent later, others say that the Twins have plenty of money to spend to get to their own arbitrary salary budget number. We all would like to see moves that at least do not hurt the 2014 Twins, but helps future teams when Byron Buxton is the center fielder and Miguel Sano is the third baseman. There is merit to all sides of the debate. There are, of course, differences of opinion on the upside and usefulness of several players. I think the right course is somewhere in the middle. Ryan, Gardy, and the rest of the Twins brass need to realize that the fan base is sick of their team losing with flawed, inferior players (Joe Mauer and the Washington Generals?). However, to expect this team to turn over the whole roster and win 25 more games is a fantasy. Youth and talent, eventually, must be served. However, not a the expense of development. To me, that means that five exciting guys start their seasons in the minors--Pinto, Gibson, Hicks, Buxton and Sano) but all of them with the possible exception of BB get their chance before the leaves start to turn. I don't know if I'm going to be satisfied with the 25 guys that go north. I hope the veteran pitchers and catcher improve the team some and that bouncebacks improve the offense to the point that .500 stays in sight. The reinforcements should be exciting--the five guys I mentioned plus Alex Meyer, perhaps Trevor May, perhaps more.

My bad. I should have probably put that in the Mauer/Puckett thread.

With four starters who are thought to be "innings eaters", none of whom are rehabbing from surgery in the last year, I really don't think they need 13 pitchers. I realize it would hurt the bench to have Morales as a permanent DH, but I've thought that a switch hitter between Mauer and Hammer (later Sano) would be ideal.

I posted a poll quite a while ago asking about who would lead the team in homers. I picked Arcia then. I guess that is still my call.

I couldn't believe that Kirby went from 4 to 31 homers (I thought the power increase was more gradual). I found a couple of interesting things at BBRef. Puck's RBI increased only from 74 to 96 (while he "drove in himself" 27 more times). Also, the top 10 comparables to Kirby are all good players, but none of them are Hall of Famers. The dirty little secret is that Puckett was a fine player, but a marginal HoFer, at best.

It leaves only Drew and Morales on the board of those free agent thought to earn over $10M per year. I still would rather have the switch-hitting DH who could back up at 1B.

The theme song for the Red Sox was "Impossible Dream". They had been second division for years and went from something like 8th to win. It was a great four-team race (White Sox were there until the last couple days) and pitchers were dominant. I believe the Tigers had a doubleheader on the last day and split when they knew they needed a sweep to tie. The Twins had two games in Boston and needed to split to eliminate the Red Sox, but lost both. Killebrew tied Yaz in homers and had a fine year (.965 OPS). Oliva and Carew were great, Tony in mid-career and Carew a rookie. Carew missed games with some military obligation. Earl Battey played his last year and was a shadow of his All-Star self. Russ Nixon and Jerry Zimmerman combined to hit less that .200 as his replacements--maybe Calvin should have spent a few shekels to acquire a catcher! Calvin fired Sam Mele after 50 games and Cal Ermer was a popular replacement. I was heartbroken that the Twins couldn't win a game in Boston.

How about Didi Gregorius or Chris Owings from the D-Backs. Apparently both are pretty well thought of and only one guy at a time can play SS. Again, rather than signing a 30+ Free Agent, I think the Twins need to go this route to get more talent at SS.

This will be a focus throughout spring training. On field performance is just one component IMHO. It is going to take good managin' and general managin' to provide depth, allow talent to move forward, and put the best possible rotation together.

Mauer is an all-timer already and I think he'll add another batting title or two. The Twins have made the playoffs with him, but haven't won a playoff series. If and when they do, I think Mauer's resumé will be better than Kirby's.