stringer bell

The Twins played their 39th game this season yesterday. Their record remains the best in baseball (by percentage points), despite a 5-3 loss to Detroit. While 40 games is closer to the 1/4 mark, there are more than 24 hours between games to consider where the Twins are and what changes (if any) should be made. Obviously, with that good record, the weaknesses aren't too glaring and the strengths are pretty evident. Why are the Twins 25-14? Power and pitching are the easy answers. They are on a club-record pace for long balls, with a lineup that legitimately could have eight or nine 20-homer hitters. Starting pitching has been well above expectations, as well, with José Berríos putting up ace numbers, while probably the two biggest surprises are Jake Odorizzi and Martín Pérez, both of whom have been outstanding. The bullpen has, on balance, gotten the job done. There have been hiccups in the 'pen, especially callups and middle inning guys, but one can only point to a game or two where the bullpen is to blame for a loss. If Marwin Gonzalez is considered part of the bench, the Twins have a deep and versatile group of players to fill in. Gonzalez has gotten over 500 plate appearances every year since 2016 while playing multiple positions. Willians Astudillo and Ehire Adrianza also play multiple positions and either of the two primary catchers are hitting well right now. Garver can also play multiple positions. The team's defense is far better with centerfielder Byron Buxton playing full-time and healthy. The three new defenders in the infield have been very good, as well. Super-utility player Gonzalez has been the principal 3rd baseman and probably will be until third baseman Miguel Sanó returns. Here is one person's thoughts on problems for this club: 1) Bullpen--Blake Parker has gotten the job done as a closer, Taylor Rogers has continued to be an outstanding late-inning arm. Beyond that, there are questions. Trevor May has been OK as a 7th-8th inning guy, but he's been inconsistent. Trevor Hildenberger has faltered recently. It doesn't appear that the manager trusts any of the other bullpen pitchers with high-leverage situations. Another arm or two is needed, if the Twins want to get to October and win games in postseason. 2) Starting depth--The front four starters have been great. Miguel Pineda has struggled, but shows signs of shaking off the rust. Beyond that, it appears the Twins best hopes to bolster their starting rotation are in AA (or just promoted to AAA). Teams almost always need more than five starters and the cupboard is pretty bare beyond #5 for the Twins. 3) Speed and a backup outfielder--Way down the list, but the Twins have only one real threat on the base paths. Buxton has all but two of the teams stolen bases and demonstrates his blazing speed running out extra-base hits and tracking fly balls. Jake Cave is a major league player, but is essentially a backup corner outfielder and he is backing up two left-handed hitting corner outfielders. It would be helpful if the Twins had a speedy, good defensive outfielder who hit right handed and handled LH pitching. These are my thoughts at almost 40 games. I wonder how they'll change after 81, the halfway point.

With the announcement that Nelson Cruz suffered a wrist injury yesterday, my immediate thought was who would replace him in the lineup and on the roster if he had to go on the injured list. It would appear to me that the answer is the much-discussed Miguel Sanó, who is on his third and last stop in his rehab program. Much has been written about Sanó. I wish to confine this discussion to the ballplayer between the lines. The other stuff has been beaten to death IMHO. What will the Twins get when a healthy Sanó is on the active roster? Sanó came up to the big leagues with much hype in 2015. He was going to be the power hitter the Twins hadn't had since Harmon Killebrew. Another comparison, because of size, was Frank Thomas. Sanó's rookie year was excellent. Despite being called up only at midseason, he was a contender for Rookie-of-the-Year. His traditional state line--.269 BA, 18 homers, 52 RBI was very good. Double the homers and RBIs for a full season, and there is a perennial All-Star, future Hall of Famer. Plus, he was only 22 years of age. A deeper look at his rookie stats was probably even more encouraging, while Miguel struck out over 100 times (in a half season), he also walked more than 50 times, giving him a solid OBP of .385. His OPS was a stellar .916 which yielded an OPS+ of 149. After a minor injury, Miguel only played 11 games in the field, so we couldn't be sure about his defense. For his superior half-season of work, Miguel Sanó was voted the Twins' Player of the Year. 2016 started with Sanó installed as the new right fielder. He was never competent or comfortable there and it seemed to affect his hitting. After a month and a half of futility in right field, Miguel moved back to third to demonstrate a rocket arm, but less-than-soft hands. His metrics at third came in below average, but at least he could hit. Well, the hitting didn't go as well either. Sanó ended up playing in 116 game, having an OPS of .781 with 19 homers and 51 RBI as the Twins flailed and failed and lost over 100 games. Sanó missed over 30 games due to injuries. Again, a deeper look into Sanó's numbers is a mixed bag. In 160 additional plate appearances, Sanó only hit one more homer than 2015, his walk rate plummeted while his strikeout rate stayed basically steady. The batting average ended at .236 and his OBP fell to.319. Sanó was a deserved All-Star in 2017. He came to camp as the third baseman, healthy and came out of the gate on fire. His first-half stats were outstanding--.276, 21 homers, 62 RBI and his defense at third was satisfactory. The strikeout rate remained about the same (35%), but he also walked 44 times, a big improvement over 2016 and the OBP was .368 at the break. Since the 2017 All-Star break, Miguel Sanó hasn't been very good. The combined numbers from the second half of '17 and 2018 are .211 BA, 20 homers, 56 RBI. OBP at .292, slugging .408, with an OPS of .700. The walk rate is below 10% and the strikeout rate is 38%. These are not future Hall-of-Fame numbers. They aren't even starter numbers. In addition, according to metrics (and my eyes) Sanó remains a below-average third baseman, despite a plus-plus arm. To summarize this rather elongated prologue, Sanó's on-field performance has been a roller coaster. He started looking like one of the brightest stars, faded, came back to that level again and faded again. Does this up-and-down have to do with injuries? Certainly. The point here is to suggest that the Twins shouldn't be counting on Sanófor too much. Expectations of another Frank Thomas or Miguel Cabrera should be tempered by now. I think they should expect more than they gotten since the All-Star break of 2017. They should get more than Mark Reynolds-like production. If the strikeouts keep coming and the homers are too infrequent, he can still be optioned. This club looks like at least a contender for postseason. If that is the case, they shouldn't be playing guys based on potential or upside. Miguel Sanó is at a crossroads in his career (in my opinion). He soon will have a chance to step on stage with a good team and help them make postseason, and maybe have success there. He's now 26 and shouldn't be judged on what he might do, he should be judged by how he is actually performing on the field.As a Twins fan and a baseball fan, I hope he can find his earlier success. As someone who has seen a lot of hyped players come and go, I am a bit skeptical.

I disagree about lack of depth, at least among the position players. It has been great to have Cruz' bat in the lineup, but the team can work around not having him for a week or two if it comes to that. If they have to put Cruz on the IL, they have a replacement for him in Sanó. With Sanó's ability to play third and first, they might be able to kind of rotate the DH between a catcher (Astudillo or Garver), Sanó and perhaps one of the outfielders. It also would keep Cave in the majors for as long as Cruz was out. I think the lack of starting pitcher depth is much more concerning. Teams don't get away with five starters in the rotation very often and if the next-best option is Kohl Stewart, well I think that is a problem. I said earlier that Hildenberger has at least one option. I do believe the league has figured out much of his deception and the stuff he has requires really good command and he hasn't shown it since last year at midseason. Some of you old-timers might remember a right-handed reliever the Twins had named Frank Eufemia. He was nearly unhittable his first trip around the league, but when he faced teams a second or third time, he became very hittable. Eufemia didn't throw hard and featured a really good off-speed pitch. I wonder if Hildy is another example.

Wow, bat for Cruz and then hit for Eddie?

Today's game might quell the conversation about playoffs and clinching the division by Labor Day. The entire series shows that any major league team can play for a couple days with any other one. The Twins have mostly been playing very well and had ridiculously good starting pitching. I believe they are a good team right now and the favorite to win the Central, but they have some weak spots (starting pitching depth and bullpen). If they lose today, it won't be the first disappointing game and I doubt it will be the last.

As a 26th man, I think Duffey can come back any time. Hildenberger has an option. It might make sense for him to go back to the minors and see if he can find himself.

I may be wrong, but I think the league has figured out Hildenberger. I thought MLB had figured out Pat Neshek years ago and he's carved out a really good career.

Even adding the RH bats--Schoop, Cruz, Cron--I see this club as more vulnerable to LH pitching. I definitely like Polanco better as a LH hitter and like Gonzalez' swing better as a LH hitter as well, so I believe that is part of the problem. In their careers, both Rosario and Kepler have been decidedly better vs. righties. That's also a factor in LH success vs. the Twins.BTW, Buxton's righty-lefty splits are non-existent.

Buxton doesn’t run on lefties (or steal third). I don’t know if I’d let him run down three anyway. He has to have more than raw speed to be adept at those things.

Tigers were due to hit some homers and the Twins were due to give some up. Regression to the mean, I guess.

Pérez is out of his regular routine. I hope he keeps his focus and mows down the Kitties. Glad to see Astudillo back and starting at catcher. Interesting that he is batting leadoff.

I thought the interview was very interesting. He got a win and a quality start, but was candid that he wasn't close to dominant. It is a tough life for a starting pitcher nowadays if you can't strike out guys and have to depend on the fielders behind you (and high walls). Stewart doesn't have a swing and miss or putaway pitch. He does get a lot of ground balls. IMHO, unless he finds another consistent effective pitch, he's not even a #4 or #5 starter. He is still relatively young and perhaps he will blossom. It is no small feat for any high school draft choice to make the majors and he has done that.

To piggy-back on that thought, remember that three of the five in the rotation are free agents at the end of this year (Gibson, Odorizzi, and Pineda). A surplus of pitching this year might not be so for the future. Also, a guy like Meíja, who I've always thought profiles better as a starter, might have that role as soon as next year. To top all of that off, it looks like the Twins' best hopes for starting pitching in the minors are at AA and below. I don't see anyone from Rochester's rotation that will force their way into the Twins' rotation.

Parker and Rogers weren’t used, May and Morin threw less than 10 pitches. It appears the survived the double dip quite well.

Hindsight is 20-20. There was another game to consider with a callup from Rochester starting. I do think that Rocco might consider Hildenberger and Harper swapping roles.

3 earned in 6 innings--"quality start"!

I should type faster!

Time to break it open.

Pitch count would indicate that Stew could at least start the 6th. It is the bottom of the order.

Now, let's tie this up (or take the lead).

Highest leverage outing for Harper so far?

I think Pineda is close and with a 4.5 game lead, the Twins can afford a bit more patience. That said, if there was someone who could replace him in the rotation, he could be easily moved to the bullpen.

Pretty good first inning for Pineda.

Are the limitations to callups effective this year? The Twins may be only able to add a couple players in September.

For the role of a spot start, I think Stewart and Littell would be the two most obvious choices.I would venture that both are considered limited upside guys at this point, but guys that can be adequate.