stringer bell

I will be at spring training for the fourth straight year. I have watched three straight non-contending teams gear up for a disappointing regular season. I have seen impressive individual performances that didn't stand up to regular season pressures. I have seen guys showing obvious potential take a step from prospect to established player and others not be able to establish themselves. I have seen comments that seem to espouse an open competition for almost every spot on the roster and also have seen arguments that spring training means either very little or nothing at all. I think spring training means different things to different players. Established players are there to get in shape for the grind of a 162 game season and perhaps work on a new skill or weakness. Some guys are just trying to make a good impression, so that if a vacancy occurs or there is a chance for a role player with a specific skill, they have the confidence of the field staff. Finally, some are competing for roster spots or places in the rotation. Here's my take on each member of the 40-man roster: Established veterans: All of these guys have a place guaranteed on the Opening Day roster and are all but certain in their role going into the season. Spring Training is a time for them to get ready for the season ahead, with no stress about making the club or getting opportunities to contribute. Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, Ervin Santana, Glen Perkins, Brian Duensing, Casey Fien, Kurt Suzuki, Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe, Oswaldo Arcia, and Torii Hunter. That is almost half of the spots on the Opening Day Roster. Young players looking to establish themselves: Players that may have been with the team for most of 2014, but haven't performed well enough long enough to be sure things. Caleb Thielbar, Kyle Gibson, Kennys Vargas, Danny Santana. Players looking to expand or enlarge their role: Guys penciled in for utility roles or perhaps a pitcher looking for a bigger role in games. Eduardo Escobar, Eduardo Nuñez, Jordan Schafer, Tim Stauffer and perhaps Josmil Pinto. Role players making a case: LOOGy and 3rd catchers hoping that their particular skill will get them a recall at some point. Aaron Thompson, Logan Darnell, and Chris Herrmann. Competitors for bullpen, rotation and center field: These guys could win a spot on the team going north or be sent out to the minors. It largely depends on how they, and the guys they are competing with, perform during spring training. JR Graham, Trevor May, Alex Meyer, Mike Pelfrey, Tommy Milone, Lester Oliveros, Michael Tonkin, Aaron Hicks, and perhaps Eddie Rosario. No chance to make the roster, plenty of chance to impress: AJ Achter, Stephen Pryor, Jason Wheeler, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano, and perhaps Eddie Rosario.

The current Twins Forum is filled with prognostication and speculation. There really isn't much else to talk about until the team starts Spring Training. Many comments have been written in reference to disturbing predictions from outside of Twins Territory: Being picked in the bottom five by an ESPN writer and being given an over/under of 68.5 in Las Vegas. The realists have joined the negatives in predicting a long, losing season. There is certainly a realistic basis for such predictions/projections. Several players could regress after having big season last year, as well as almost all of the incumbents in the bullpen. The Twins still have defense and range issues in the outfield. Some have pointed out that the club closed it's run deficit dramatically last year, added a 111 OPS+ outfielder, who would have been in the top three of the Twins triple crown offensive categories, and added a solid pitcher to the starting rotation to bolster their biggest weakness last year. That combined with the coming of age of top prospects and improvement by veterans who are under 30 or who had seasons far worse than their track records would mean a successful season and a chance to contend. If I have to choose one camp from the two schools of thought that I have mentioned, I would choose the optimistic view of the Twins' chances. A return to career norms for the likes of Mauer and Nolasco can and should make up for regression from surprises and "breakouts" last year. If position players, starters or relievers don't cut it, there are higher-upside prospects ready or close to ready to take their place. I don't expect the squad that breaks camp to play the Tigers on Opening Day to be good enough to contend, but I do think that the roster and the players on it will evolve to be much improved from their performances in the last four years. I don't think the Twins will win the division or claim a wild card, there are too many question marks that have to turn out well for the team, but I think that it could happen and that the team has to start the season with the expectation that they will contend. I do expect improvement and the blueprint for a perennial contender coming out of the 2015 season.

Today, I would put Milone in front of the pack for the fifth starter position. Prior to coming to Minnesota, Milone's track record was very good, better in most respects than Nolasco or Hughes, although he didn't have as long a tenure as either of those two guys. Because Milone is a lefty and was arb eligible (making more the $2M) he has advantages over other candidates. That is reality. While I am not opposed to Milone making the club out of spring training, I don't think he should ever be in the bullpen. I profile him as a starter only, meaning that he makes the rotation or he is optioned to Rochester.

I know this blog is about Walker, but depending on Rosario, ABW should start in AA. I peg Rosario for AAA if he has a good spring, because he would be a backup plan to the starting center fielder or center field tandem. I like what Walker offers and want to see how he handles the higher levels of the minors. If he continues to supply power, speed and defense, I think he might have a major league future.

I have followed the Twins since they moved to Minnesota from DC. In the early days, the Twins excelled in hitting home runs. They had plenty of power at many positions led by perennial home run king Harmon Killebrew, who led the league in homers six times. However, since Mr. Nixon said "I am not a crook" (and Harmon declined), the Twins have had a severe power shortage. In the forty-plus years since 1973, the Twins have outhomered their opponents in only three seasons and by narrow margins. The 2014 Twins scored a lot of runs, but would have been an elite offensive club if they had hit more long balls. What is exciting is the promise that in the future they will have the players to turn around games with one swing. Oswaldo Arcia hit 20 homers in just 400 plate appearances last season. If his homer rate stays unchanged, he would hit 30 in a full season with 600+ PAs. Kennys Vargas hit nine homers in an extended trial late in the season. Again, with full-time plate appearances, that total should be in the mid-twenties for a full season. Add top prospect Miguel Sano, who homered 35 times in less than 500 PAs in his last minor league season (in pitcher-friendly and homer-averse leagues), and the Twins have a prospective middle of the order cluster that could easily hit 90 or more homers. Sano, Arcia and Vargas are all young and would figure to increase their power numbers. I haven't mentioned yet the Twins leader in home runs the last two years--Brian Dozier. He brings significantly above average power to a position that the Twins traditionally have filled with slap hitters (his last two seasons both set records for home runs by a Twins second baseman). Beyond that, current Twins backup catcher Josmil Pinto would also profile to hit a lot of homers with full-time plate appearances. Whenever Sano arrives, the Twins would figure to have above-average home run production. I expect that the Twins will close the gap in long balls next year and perhaps out-homer their oppontents for the first time in more than a decade. An increase in power might cover regression in other areas.

I'll repeat what I wrote on the original blog: Sympathies to you and yours. Thanks for sharing your story. It brought a smile to my face and lump to my throat.

Sympathies to you and yours. Thanks for sharing your story. It brought a smile to my face and lump to my throat.

Joe Mauer didn't hit at a Hall of Fame level last year, as a matter of fact, he didn't hit at an All-Star level in 2014. Why? We've seen four or five theories in this thread and they all might have at least some validity. We've also seen about as many prospective solutions. Again, there is probably a grain of truth in the "fixes" offered by Twins Daily commenters. I'll add my 2 cents worth and maybe offer a free bit of advice. Mauer wasn't fully healthy for the first half of the season, he also is over 30 and perhaps aged rapidly due to the beating that catchers absorb. Mauer carries expectations of being more--his size suggests slugger, his demeanor and upbringing suggest hero, and his resumé indicates he has always found a way to be successful. He seemed to press and get out of his comfort zone, which set off the vicious cycle of pressing, failing and pressing more, which he really hasn't experienced since coming to the big leagues. Mauer is more than a year and a half removed from the concussion, he has a full year as a first baseman and has had time to adjust to the additions to his family. I think that Mauer has to make some adjustments to again be a top hitter. 1) Don't be predictable on that first pitch. Once in awhile be prepared to rip at the first pitch he sees. 2) Build strength. Mauer seemed to hit a lot of balls 350 to 380 in the gaps when he needed to hit the ball 15-20 feet further. His workout program has stressed flexibility over strength, but maybe he needs to modify the plan a bit so that some of those long drives make it over the wall. 3) Be the man. Instead of being content to take a walk or ping a single to left, sometimes the best hitter on the team has to try to drive the ball. In some cases, I think Mauer should get more aggressive and try to drive the ball. 4) Use the entire field more. It has pained me to see how far outfields shift for Mauer. If he could get a few balls in the right center gap or down the line, it might result in more hitters' counts and more hits (and extra-base hits) for the three-time batting champion.

I think Shane Robinson has a decent shot at starting the season with the Twins. He has over three years of big league time with the Cardinals, is a solid three-position outfielder, with decent wheels. Should the Twins decide to send Hicks out for his final option (I hope they do!), then Robinson makes sense to start the season until Hicks, Rosario or Buxton show they are ready and claim center field. Also, if things break right, Stuart Turner might get a shot behind the plate.

The Millers played one year at least at Metropolitan Stadium IIRC. The Met was built to be expanded to a major league park if the area got a franchise. Not sure about Midway. I would presume it was the successor to Lexington. Calvin did his best to involve both twin cities, naming the club "Minnesota Twins", but big brother Minneapolis remained big brother.

What was impressive about Hicks' second half? He handled AA, was about average (maybe a little better) in AAA in a SSS and then walked his way to a .657 OPS in September with the Twins. I watched enough of Hicks in September to ask, over and over, "when is he going to hit the ball hard?".

A lot of good comments here. I am trying not to cherry-pick stats, but I would like to point out some things that seem to be pushed under the rug--yes, Aaron Hicks will play this year at 25, Eduardo Escobar just turned 26, they are less than a year apart and Escobar has accomplished something as a major leaguer. I would also state that Schafer showed more in his short stint with the Twins than Hicks has in 538 plate appearances with the Twins. Hicks performance has been on a par with Robinson's in a roughly equivalent number of at-bats. If some are willing to platoon Hicks, I think they are giving up on Hicks as a prospect and making him a fourth outfielder/platoon player. A strict platoon would have Hicks "riding the pine" between 2/3 and 3/4 of the time. I'd rather have Robinson in that role and see if Hicks can master AAA. Yes, Danny Santana is a cover boy for "predicted regression" and most of us were surprised by Eduardo Escobar's hitting prowess last year. Again, their production last year happened as did Hicks' lack of production. The Twins should be cognizant of the percentages, but shouldn't ignore what happened between the lines. Let's also remember that the team that goes north won't be the team that we see after Memorial Day or the All-Star break. First of all, the Twins should proceed as if they were going to contend this year. That means sending the best 25 players north and the best nine on the field and in my book that means both Danny Santana and Eduardo Escobar in the lineup. Addressing defense--Aaron Hicks isn't even above-average as a center fielder. He might be a bit better than Santana, but the difference could be marginal. Buxton likely won't be a gold glove guy when he is recalled, but he could be the best defender available in the Twins' system. If the Twins want premium defense in center, they should make a deal for Peter Bourjos. He is a proven top defender, still under 30 with a contract for less than $2M.

Why should Hicks' spring matter even a little bit? He looked very strong in 2013 and pretty good in 2014, but came out of the gate under .200 both years. I just can't see how Hicks should start the season with the Twins. Let the guy master AAA.

There are a lot of "ifs" that have to work out positively for the Twins to contend. It could happen, and they are due for a surge. A nice, long winning streak early could give them confidence, especially if much of the streak is against AL Central teams. The Twins also need to build a home-field advantage, winning 10-15% more games at home than they win on the road. That would mean that the team should fit the ballpark and have a bit of an edge when playing at Target Field.

One other thing, Hisle batted in the middle of the lineup, while Mack didn't IIRC, at least when the Twins were relevant.

I have been publicly predicting Eddie Rosario will make the club out of spring training. I really doubt that will happen, but I'm pulling for a long shot to happen. Rosario would have to be clearly better than his competition in center, not only Hicks, but also Schafer and the Twins would have to be wedded to having Santana as the shortstop. I see a better future for Rosario than Hicks, but left field is probably the position he will get most of his playing time.

I don't expect any I named to be playing beyond 2016.

Battey had one good season in Washington plus his seven seasons in Minnesota. For a catcher, that is pretty good longevity. He was a four-time All-Star. In my book, he deserved the Twins Hall of Fame honor.

Mauer still has four years left on his contract, correct?

Agree 100% on Gladden and besides that he's not a good announcer, especially on PBP. I didn't (and don't) have a problem with a Hall of Famer who spent the majority of his career with the Twins getting his number retired, but the other side of it is I wouldn't have a problem if he didn't. Let's just hold off on Twins' HOF for a few years until Johan, Morneau, Torii, Cuddy and Radke can be inducted (Radke's not in yet is he?).

The Twins changed the name of their team when they moved to Minnesota. The Dodgers stayed the Dodgers, the Giants stayed the Giants, so it kind of figures that they don't emphasize their Washington roots. Also, the Senators were perennial losers and when the Twins moved, they wanted to make a break from that history. When Calvin sold the club, the connection with Washington was pretty much severed. I agree that the Twins should recognize their Washington history, but it isn't easy to consider the first 60 years of the last century exactly the same as the last 54 years that they have been in Minnesota.

Regarding the relative value of Mack and Tovar, they played in different eras. Mack played in the early steroids era when home runs and offense soared. Whereas, Tovar played at the peak of a pitching era where Bob Gibson had a 1.12 ERA and Denny McLain won 30 games. Five years vs. eight matters as well and the Twins of Tovar's era were contenders more often than not while the Twins had only two years of relevance during Mack's tenure. As a teenager, it seemed like Tovar was a Twin forever, as a grown-up and dad, it seemed like Mack was with the Twins a short time. Versatility does matter. I agree that the stunt of playing all nine positions shouldn't matter at all, but Pepé was versatile, playing a lot of third, some second and short and all three outfield positions. He also had personality, whereas Mack was among the quietest and most reserved players in his era.

The Laudner pick-off throw occurred on probably the only day I ever went to a bar to specifically watch a game. I don't think I ever screamed as loud (at least at a sporting event) as when G-Man slapped the tag on Evans. It is my #1 memory of Laudner's career.

That was my first thought when mentioning Jones' career highlights. I remember about a year or two before he left, that someone mentioned that Jones could only slide one way and that limited his base stealing.