stringer bell

Talking about location of fastballs, certainly optimum location of a specific pitch is across the board, depending on the pattern and the batter's strengths etc. I would say that keeping changeups and breaking stuff down makes sense. I have yet to see a pitcher be effective throwing those pitches in the top half of the zone. That said, Bert and most commentators say "he got it up" on about every hard-hit ball. I sometimes chuckle that a perfect pitch is the exact same location and speed as one that is hit 400 feet, according to what I can see on my TV screen.

Kepler has great tools and his "disappointing" 2014 doesn't look so bad with his strong finish in the FSL and now a good performance in the AFL. Walker has had great production, despite a low BA and OBP as he has advanced up the ladder in the Twins' system. He has excellent speed for someone his size, and a good arm. I don't think his future is as a DH. I am hopeful that Rosario can recover his top prospect status by the conclusion of spring training. He has been successful in the AFL, and that is step one. If the Twins don't retain Schafer, I think Ortiz' chance of debuting with the Twins, maybe right out of spring training, is enhanced greatly. He's probably a fourth OF, but can play all three OF positions doesn't have any superior tools, but doesn't have any real weak areas either.

Very nice write-up. Santana broke out last year and we can expect a bit of a sophomore slump, but he looks like a solid major leaguer. I'd like to see some reduction in strikeouts to make up for what almost certainly will be a lower BABIP. I'm also concerned that his RH numbers will regress more significantly than his LH stats.

Schafer/Hicks no. Schafer/RH hitting major league center fielder--okay. Aaron Hicks is still a prospect and he shouldn't be riding the bench for 110-120 games. He is not a good backup plan in the event that Schafer would revert to the less than replacement player he was in the NL. Hicks needs to go to Triple A and master it before he gets a last chance with the Twins. The Twins need to acquire a plus-plus defensive center fielder to platoon with Schafer who could step in full-time if Schafer reverts to what he has been. If Hicks earns a promotion on merit, that is a bonus. As for Rosario, I think his strong performance in the AFL has put him in the conversation. He would have a chance to compete for an outfield spot in spring training.

Is Aaron Hicks injured? He hasn't played in Venezuela in more than a week. BTW, he is hitting .220 with a .661 OPS, not exactly making a claim.

I I was with you until the last paragraph. I don't think Hicks "showed potential" with a .658 OPS in September. He hasn't hit above AA yet and needs substantial time at Triple A. Schafer did well, but has a track record which invites skepticism about his future. Schafer does have the elite tool of base-stealing and there is no prospect status to protect.

Especially with Eddie Rosario close, I like the right handed hitters. Denorfia would be a pretty valuable and versatile three-position OF, with a good glove. Rios would be pricier and would be a regular. He only hit four homers last year, in HR friendly Texas. The Twins' vacancy is in LF and Rios has only played a few innings there, none recently. Both guys are past 30 and shouldn't be signed long-term, but could be helpful in 2015

If Dozier keeps his OBP as high as it was this year, I don't mind if he never hits .250. I think he's easily a Top Ten second baseman in all of baseball and hence shouldn't be traded if the team believes they will be competitive this year or next year. Since he had over 700 PAs, it would figure that Dozier saw a lot of pitches and he was third in bases on balls.

Most are predicting a one-year deal for Masterson to rebuild his value. If the Twins are convinced they are going to get the "good Masterson", I thought maybe they could have a team option at a relatively higher number (maybe $13M).

I've commented on other threads that I would like to see the Twins pursue Masterson. He's been better more recently than most of the rest listed. Most of the other names listed are intriguing as well. Getting a lefty would be nice, although I haven't totally given up on Tommy Milone.

On Mauer, I have really mixed feelings about him. He is somewhat unique as a catcher who has been by far the best hitter on the team. While having him behind the plate maximized his value, his bat was essential, so he was used frequently as a DH. Gardenhire protected his best player, seldom playing him behind the plate in day games after night games. Mauer never vocally protested when he wasn't in the lineup. I always had the feeling that Gardy was being ordered to protect Mauer by the front office and did so grudgingly. Beyond that, Joe has had more than his share of long recoveries from somewhat mysterious injuries, all the way back to his rookie year when he seemed to be a week away from playing all the way through the playoffs. I thought his recovery time for the oblique was on the long side and then Joe said that it still bothered him a bit. Maybe the guy just does heal slowly. I understand that a Colabello would hide an injury. I also understand that no player wants to labeled "injury prone" or worse, "soft". Players think they can perform when they really shouldn't even try. Nolasco said that sometimes his injury was minor and sometimes he just couldn't get loose. Sounds suspicious, but I have a shoulder that ranged from merely bothersome to extremely painful, seemingly at random. Other things to consider--If a team is in a pennant race, it makes sense for guys to play. If the race is over, why jeopardize one's career for a few meaningless at-bats or innings? If a player is in the walk year of a contract, they probably have to be dragged out of the lineup. If a guy has a batting average a tick below .300 with a week to go, he is in the lineup until he gets over the barrier. I will settle for players reporting injuries when they happen and for them to know the difference between dinged and injured or perhaps hurt and injured. Players and the management staff need to communicate and figure out what is best for the player and the team.

Re: Masterson, I favor a one-year contract with a relatively expensive team option (maybe $9M with a $14M option). While it would restrict the player a bit, he is still young enough to cash in big if he pitches well. The Twins would get to keep him for a decent AAV, but be protected if 2015 was 2014 redux.

To further illustrate my point about starting, Greg Gagne was the SS for both the '87 and '91 Twins. He never put up a single-season OPS+ of 100 in his career. His lifetime OPS+ was 83. Escobar (only 700 PAs) is a lifetime 85 OPS+ and in over 450 PAs this year put up a 102 OPS+. Gags was probably a superior glove to Esco, but not by much. I would say Escobar is "good enough". However, Santana and a couple of other minor league shortstops have a chance to be much better than good enough.

Disagree with your assessment Ash. I think Escobar is good enough to be a regular shortstop on a playoff team. However, it would be as the 8/9 hitter and someone that would be replaceable i.e. not a building block. The good news is that Escobar is reliable and versatile defensively and he took a giant step ahead offensively last year. The downside is that he's never been a selective hitter, he doesn't have much power and only average speed, which limits his defensive ability and eliminates the stolen base as a weapon in his arsenal. I think this limits his overall upside to above-average at best. Santana could be what Escobar is not. He has great speed and looks like a possibility as a top of the order hitter. He might have the ability to make the spectacular play. He could be a star. that potential opens doors that Escobar can't open. However, I'm not sure if he can be a good defender at the crucial position of shortstop. I think he needs to show he can handle the position defensively. Rather than move Escobar around, I think Santana could develop into an infielder/outfielder who could cover any of four or five positions short term including both shortstop and center field.

I know that Santana defied gravity somewhat, but there is no way a guy who hit well over .300 in over 400 plate appearances is going to start 2015 in the minors or on the bench. If Molitor wants to start him at SS, fine. However, there needs to be a backup plan if he struggles (hitting or fielding).

I think that if the Twins are committed to Santana at short, Nuñez' chances of staying a Twin take a big hit. A second utility guy with a rep as a below-average glove really doesn't cut it. I like what Nunez has to offer (speed, some pop), but if he's backing up three guys who figure to play every day and also behind Escobar, he isn't needed.

The three best hitters on the team appear to block EE, or maybe it is the three best players. He played a quality major league SS and hit very, very well and his reward is utility duty? Further, because the three guys manning second, short, and third were the three best players last year, his chances of getting a lot of starts aren't that good unless there is an injury. Finally, Escobar hit well from the right side. That would present a great chance if he was an outfielder or first baseman, but Plouffe, Dozier, and Santana all hit left handers very well. I think we've seen his ceiling, which is pretty good. If someone offered a good pitcher, maybe the time to trade him is now. Personally, though, I think EE will get his time on the field, just not right out of the box.

The general plan is fine. I think the prices for Santana (including a draft pick) and Rasmus will be too high. I think picking up a stopgap who can play center would work, and it probably should be a right handed hitter. Bourgos from the Cards, maybe, or Ruggiano from the Cubs. Denorfia is a free agent who is a plus fielder. The pitcher I'd most like to see the Twins land is Masterson. Another might be Anderson, who pitched for the Rockies last year.

It seems to be a knee-jerk reaction to sign an ex-Twin for every vacancy. I enjoyed Torii while he was here and respect what he has done since, but the Twins don't need guys deep in their decline phase.

Did I mention "pitching and defense"?

I don't think the Twins are that far away. Their top ten problems last year: 1) Pitching 2)Outfield Defense 3) Pitching 4) Pitching 5) Defense 6) Situational Hitting 7) Fundamentals 8) Pitching 9) Defense 10)Anderson. I expect rebounds from Milone and Nolasco with some regression from Hughes. I see big transition in the bullpen, but overall improvement. They can have a winning record or better in 2015.

I am neither pro- nor anti-Molitor. I know that he is very smart and knows his baseball. He will be a better interview than Gardy, but might wear on everyone faster if the Twins continue to be a losing franchise. I understand that the pitching needs to be upgraded, but finding an ace isn't easy. If it were, every team would have one. I personally don't think free agency is the answer. Most top-dollar contracts for pitchers just don't work.

The last two years, the Twins' bullpen has been incredibly stable. They've also been regarded as quite effective, especially when compared to the starting rotation. During the last leg of the season, the bullpen was neither effective nor efficient. I'm going to discuss the players who were on the club for most of the season.Six pitchers spent all season with the Twins and threw almost all of their innings in the bullpen: Swarzak, Burton, Fien, Duensing, Thielbar and Perkins. They all threw between 47 and 68 innings, with Swarzak again logging the most frames and Thielbar the least. With so many measures to view overall effectiveness, it is really hard to summarize the group, other than to point out that five of these six relievers gave up more hits than innings pitched. Only Glen Perkins struck out more than one batter per inning and all of their ERAs were over three. As a relief staff, the Twins didn't strike out many, but also didn't walk many. This wasn't a bullpen that overpowered hitters. As a group they were effective when they hit their spots and the balls hit into play found the gloves of the Twins fielders. Here's a brief thumbnail of each along with a projection for 2015: Thielbar: After having a fine rookie campaign, Caleb Thielbar pitched a pretty anonymous 47.1 innings. He was close to equally effective against left or right. Like most Twins relievers, he weakened at the end of the season. Thielbar is not eligible for arbitration, which increases his value. I expect that Caleb will be a member of the coming year's bullpen. Duensing: The WHIP is up, K's are down. Duensing was the only all-season reliever to have his ERA outpace his FIP by a substantial amount. I have liked Duensing because of his versatility and durability, but since he will be arb-eligible, he is a strong candidate to be non-tendered. I, for one, hope that the Twins find a way to keep the veteran lefty, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he is traded or non-tendered. Perkins: Publicly, the Twins are saying that Perkins is an All-Star closer and that his pitching arm is fine. While I am glad that there isn't something seriously wrong with his arm, I'm not convinced that his performance going forward won't become an issue. Perkins got his swings and misses and his strikeouts in 2014, but even before his dismal September, his velocity was down and he allowed a lot of hard-hit balls, not all of which should have been caught. He allowed 32 hits in 32 innings from June-August before his (injury-fueled) drop-off in September. Just about every stat went the wrong way in 2014. At the very least, Perk will have to make some adjustments. Swarzak: He won points with his manager and pitching coach by taking the ball when asked. In 2015 however he wil have a different coach and manager. Swarzak's role is long relief and they just aren't very valuable unless they can evolve into a late-inning role or a spot in the rotation. It looks to me like long relief is Swarzak's only role. Swarzak garnered four starts, with mostly unimpressive results and wasn't much better in higher leverage situations. The numbers say he regressed to the mean after a very good 2013. His WHIP was up, walks up and strikeouts down. Since he's arbitration-eligible and out of options, I expect Swarzak will be pitching for someone else next year. Burton: Burton was a solid performer in 2012, less solid in 2013, and started out horribly in 2014. He pitched better as the season wore on, and by the end of the season he was the Twins most reliable reliever IMHO. The warning signs started in 2013. His velocity was down, and it lessened the effectiveness of his out pitch, the change-up. The numbers point the wrong way--WHIP, hits per IP and BBs up, K's down. Burton was victimized by base stealers, unable or unwilling to keep runners close. The Twins pretty much closed the door on his return by buying out his 2015 option. The 33 year old Burton will be a free agent and I doubt the Twins will seriously try to re-sign him. Fien: Like Burton and Thielbar, Fien was picked off the scrap heap. His performance when called up in 2012 was excellent and surprising. He started strong in 2013, but faded. That script was followed in 2014. Fien was the principal eighth inning guy and did well holding leads. In his few attempts to close games, he couldn't get it done. Fien's two-pitch mix requires excellent command. If he's a little off, the ball can travel a long, long way. He allowed slightly more hits than innings pitched, struck out far fewer batters than previously and yielded some big innings. At 31, it is doubtful that he can improve much. Much like Swarzak, Duensing and Burton, it seems likely that we've seen the best these men have to offer. It makes sense to move several of the bullpen guys and replace them with younger guys with power arms. This concludes my "Postseason Reviews". To summarize, there are a lot of pretty good players already in the majors. The talent needs to be augmented by an improved pitching staff and maybe some premium talent that is getting close to arriving. Click here to view the article

I like Rosario a lot, but this off-season stuff shouldn't be given too much credence. It is a great opportunity for Eddie to regain his top prospect status and so far he has really taken advantage. There is a gaping hole in the outfield, and Rosario could be the answer. I'd like him to finish strong in the AFL and then have a good (or better) Spring Training before I reserve a spot for him on the team.