stringer bell

Day two of my Fort Myers experience featured baseball. After a bit more room jangling, we got to Century Link hereafter known as Hammond or Twins Spring Training camp at 10 AM. We checked the minor league fields and watched pitcher's drills. The Rays were to be the opposition for the Twins farmhands on this warm spring day. Well before first pitch, we made the acquaintance of TD's own Ashbury John, who is in Fort Myers, living it up while his significant other slaves over a hot computer (I jest). John is a nice guy, much younger than me, who has somehow managed to escape the bonds of employment (voluntarily). We had a nice conversation on several light topics--life, death, family, marriage, WAR, Aaron Hicks--and agreed on many things,but not Shane Robinson. Ash and I tried to smoke out TD's Halsey Hall, using Trevor Plouffe references as bait, but either Halsey wasn't there or he was too smart for our ploy. With my precision timing intact, I left the minor league games just when they started just in time to miss the first inning of the tussle with the O's. I didn't miss Ervin giving up three straight hits and two runs in the second inning. Santana yielded another run the next inning, but looked better in the fourth. Ash joined us with the score 3-1 and together we witnessed some squandered opportunities resulting in a 3-2 defeat at the hands of the Baltimores. If I have more to say about the Twins, I will put it in the game thread. I want to close with an endorsement--a Fort Myers trip for a frozen Twins fan is a good thing. More tomorrow.

My journey to Fort Myers started with a phone call at 3 in the morning, notifying me that the shuttle would arrive at the Kwik Trip at 3:50 instead of the already too early 4:20. I arrived at "Terminal 2" at 5 AM for an 8:30 flight, but couldn't go through Security because I had arranged to help my brother when he arrived. The flight was fine-left on time, arrived on time--but still felt a bit like a sardine in the can. We upgraded our rental to an SUV and headed to our hotel on Sanibel. There the real fun began. The room wasn't ready. We ate outside by the pool under an umbrella. An hour and a half later, the room still wasn't ready. After at least a half-dozen trips to the front desk, things were pretty much settled. However, we will be in a different room tomorrow, more fitting with my brother's needs. We went out, grabbed a quick bite, got some incidentals at Pubinx and returned to our room at 8:30. It was then that I realized how tried I was! Today I repack, check out the minor leaguers and take in a day game. Hopefully, I will have the energy to do something later this afternoon and this evening.

I would go with Nunez, because Herrmann hasn't shown that he can hit at all. I do like a 25th guy with Herrmann's versatility.

I have him as the starting CF to start the year.

I think you are on the money, Seth. Nunez hasn't hit great, but his track record is far better than Herrmann's. With relative rhinos, Plouffe, Arcia, and Vargas all in the lineup, having someone to pinch run for them would be a plus. I think Molitor also has to be convinced of Nunez ability in the outfield and second base. He made a bad play on a ball in the ninth inning yesterday. Herrmann has to show he can hit. In addition Nunez is out of options, so if he doesn't make the team he doesn't stay in the Twins organization.

I'm pretty sure Milone has an option remaining. Further, I don't think he profiles as a reliever at all. IMHO, either he makes the rotation or he goes to Rochester (grudgingly). I think Herrmann and Rosario were ticketed for Rochester, but have inserted themselves into the conversation with good performance to date. They have to be better than their competition to win a job going north. I'm not happy about it, but I think both Meyer and May are going to Rochester to start the season. Stauffer has to pick it up or the Twins will walk away from his free agent contract. Graham is a wild card. If Pelfrey continues to throw well, he could make the rotation.

I was hoping he would make the club. I hope he gets a recall sooner rather than later.

Probably wise to send out the guys who aren't going to make the club. I don't think it means these guys are hopelessly buried in the minors, just that they need to play. I liked what little I saw of Sano and Berrios, in particular.

Slightly off topic, but where does Dozier and his .241 lifetime average hit in the Twins' lineup?

To Thrylos points above, two things: 1) Dozier, more than most, made adjustments in 2013 which changed his hitting. The change is more dramatic than most and seems to sacrifice BABIP for slugging. Your graph shows this. 2) The thing that Dozier needs to do which would increase his BA (and OPS) without changing his BABIP much is put the ball in play more. Dozier led the club in Ks last year, if he could reduce that number to 90 or so, he could add 10-12 hits and still carry that low BABIP to an average of .260 or so. It's not as easy as saying it and it will happen, but there is room for considerable improvement without wrecking what Dozier is good at.

I am a Brian Dozier fan. There is a lot to like about his game, not the least of which is the way that he has improved. I've said before that while their personalities were polar opposites, Dozier reminds me of Chuck Knoblauch. Knobby kept improving facets of his game until he was a legitimate All-Star, and Dozier appears to be doing the same. In 2013, Dozier added power to his "toolbox" clubbing all of his homers from mid-May on. In 2014, as Seth noted, he added OBP by being in the top five in walks in the AL. I expect that Dozier will try to be a better two-strike hitter, raising his average while reducing his strikeouts. There is room to improve on defense, as well. I thought BD was terrific in 2013, and something less than that last year. Finally, there is clutch hitting. I know it is supposed to be random and no one is truly "clutch", but Dozier's numbers in close and late etc. were quite a bit worse than his overall stats. I think he overthought his ABs and got himself out quite often.

I sincerely haven't seen anything that encourages me that Aaron Hicks will improve enough to be even a placeholder in center field. The supposed improvement after his minor league stint was negligible. He got on base better, but nearly completely lost any pop that he had in the previous season. He hasn't shown the ability to be above average in the field or on the bases. The tools remain in place, but he needs to show much improved performance. It hasn't worked to push him the last two years, why should this year be different. Rosario was mentioned as an alternate. Perhaps he could be a Santana or Vargas--guys that weren't that highly thought of, but who performed when promoted. I'd love to see Eddie win the job, but I am not going to be concerned if the season starts with Schafer backed by Robinson. I would be less than happy if that is the way the season ends.

Where to start the young prospects? Rosario at AAA if he doesn't end up starting with the Twins, Sano and Polanco at Chatanooga with Sano there only a month or so.

Robinson is fine as the fourth outfielder and platoon option. He's been a plus defender and has good speed. My blueprint is for the consistency to come from the corners, but transition in center. Start the season with Schafer platooning with Robinson in center. If the solid performance by Schafer last year was a mirage, we should know by April/May. If Schafer/Robinson is inadequate, then whoever is performing best between Rosario, Hicks and maybe Buxton should get the recall. Also, if Santana doesn't prove out to be a good enough defender at short, he could move back to center.

I don't think it is a coincidence that Nuñez was listed as an outfielder on the Twins' roster. He is my pick to get a lot of starts against left handers in place of Arcia (not a platoon, but "rest" days).

I agree with the "don't platoon Hicks" argument. I consider him a prospect, but he needs to go to the minors to develop his hit tool. I think a month to six weeks of solid performance at Rochester would be sufficient, if he is the best option to take over center field. My projection has been for Schafer and Robinson to share center for the early days until one of the prospects (Hicks, Rosario, or the very unlikely scenario of Buxton) show they are ready by dominating in AAA or AA. Sure, there is a chance that the Twins make a deal or two before spring training is over. They have excess starters, an extra infielder and a chasm in center field. I have been beating the drum for the Twins to obtain Peter Bourjos from the Cards all winter. Earlier comments about bringing Polanco north, maybe Buxton etc. just don't serve to develop the players. I believe that Buxton and Sano are destined to be All-Stars, but they aren't ready. They (and Polanco) need lots of playing time at the right level. Right now that is AA.

I agree that if someone wants a guy to get 'em over or get 'em in, Mauer is not ideal. He, however, is a career .320 hitter with a better than .400 OBP. I would like to see him drive the ball more and if he does, he should hit third.

Not all stolen bases are equal, for sure. Also, it is vital that the success percentage be above 70%. I think it is tough to quantify the value of putting pressure on the opponent. I believe that the running game should be utilized more by the bottom of the order, where scoring without the stolen base is more of a long shot.

I'll dispute both Santana (great OBP) and Mauer (hits behind runners). Santana had a high batting average, but his OBP was barely better than Dozier's, who hit 77 points lower in batting average. A big reason I don't want to see Mauer hit second is that he almost never hits the ball to the right side of the diamond, advancing a runner with an out. Also, so many of his singles are to left, which often don't score runners from second, unless there are two out. First inning scenarios for Mauer not advancing runners when making an out and not scoring runners in scoring position with a hit do not fit.

Because he won't make the team (and shouldn't).

Love the article. I would dispute the title, however. The Twins were among the better teams in the AL from '62-'70, with the outliers being '64 and '68.

I believe I went to another game during that series. My wife was pregnant with our first child and it was really warm. I recall the Twins winning the game and Carew making a fantastic play on a slow roller to first. Yes, I thought the Twins were on their way that summer. Carew was having a season for the ages, several guys were going very well including Bostock and Hisle, and Mauch was managing his his talent admirably.

OK, what is the proper "in shape" weight for Vargas? I would guess he could carry at least 260 pounds, if not more, on that huge frame.

I dislike the notion of Chris Herrmann making the major league roster, but I do think that getting Santana time in a position other than center and shortstop is a fine idea, especially since since Escobar played so well at short last year. Of course, putting Santana in the outfield makes Nunez the only infield reserve. Interesting fact, Nunez is listed as an outfielder on the Twins roster (quasi-platoon w/ Arcia?). The back of the rotation and the front of the bullpen are big issues to me, as well as the starter in center field.

I have followed the Twins since they moved to Minnesota from Washington. In the early days, the Twins excelled in hitting home runs. They had plenty of power at many positions, led by perennial home run king Harmon Killebrew, who led the league in homers six times. However, since Mr. Nixon said "I am not a crook", and Harmon got old, the Twins have had a severe power shortage.In the forty-plus years since 1973, the Twins have out-homered their opponents in only three seasons and those by narrow margins. The 2014 Twins scored a lot of runs, but would have been an elite offensive club had they hit more long balls. What is exciting is the promise that in the future they will have the players to turn games around with one swing. Oswaldo Arcia hit 20 homers in just 400 plate appearances last season. If his homer rate stays unchanged, he would hit 30 in a full season with 600+ PAs. Kennys Vargas hit nine homers in an extended trial late in the season. Again, with full-time plate appearances, that total should be in the mid-twenties for a full season. Add top prospect Miguel Sano, who homered 35 times in fewer than 500 PAs in his last minor league season (in pitcher-friendly and homer-averse leagues), and the Twins have a prospective middle of the order cluster that could easily hit 90 or more homers. Sano, Arcia and Vargas are all young and figure to increase their power numbers. I haven't mentioned yet the Twins leader in home runs the last two years--Brian Dozier. He brings significantly above average power to a position that the Twins traditionally have filled with slap hitters. His last two seasons both set records for home runs by a Twins second baseman. Beyond that, current Twins backup catcher Josmil Pinto would also profile to hit a lot of homers with full-time plate appearances. When Sano arrives, the Twins figure to have above-average home run production. I expect that the Twins will close the gap in long balls next year and perhaps out-homer their opponents for the first time in more than a decade. An increase in power might cover regression in other areas. Click here to view the article