stringer bell

I just checked today's AFL game and Eddie Rosario got a double in his first at-bat. We Twins fans shouldn't get too worked up about minor league baseball played in Arizona in October and November. However, there isn't much else Twins related to follow, so all of a sudden it becomes important that Eddie Rosario is hitting .400 in off-season ball. Having said that, Rosario is following the script he needs to follow to make his Twins' debut early in 2015. He is undoing the tough season he had in AA and showing that he can play and excel with the best American prospects in baseball. As I write this, Rosario leads all AFL hitters in batting average. He is on the leaderboard in hits, stolen bases, and OBP. Most reports have him playing a more than respectable left field, with a couple of games in center. He has hit both lefties and right handers. To further his chances, Rosario needs to continue to hit in the remainder of the AFL and carry those results forward to Spring Training. I still think it would take a "perfect storm" for Eddie to break camp with the Twins, but with each success in the off-season, the perfect storm becomes more likely. I have said before that Aaron Hicks' two partial seasons with the Twins should not provide him with a leg up in making the club in 2015. His offensive performance was too dismal and his defense was adequate, certainly not enough to justify a roster spot. If Rosario outplays Hicks in the spring, he should be in front of him for promotion or for making the club. The Twins need to have more than Hicks and Rosario competing for a starting spot. With all the flux in the Twins' outfield, there is a chance that Eddie Rosario can undo all that went wrong in the past 12 months and claim a starting spot at some point on the 2015 Twins.

I don't think Mauer will put up MVP numbers, but I think he'll be far better next year. My one prediction is that one of Arcia, Santana or Vargas will be sent to the minors sometime this year.

Does anyone have a good idea what the level of the Venezuelan Winter League is? I looked at a few box scores and didn't recognize many names, so I am guessing it wouldn't be AAA+ or better. I know that the major leaguers often wait until later in the season to play, but right now it doesn't look more advanced than the AFL, that is my guess.

I like Turner a lot. He would profile as a regular catcher and Gold Glove (mitt?) contender. I suppose he would be a bottom-of-the-order hitter, but I think he could be a league-average hitter.

I saw Goodrum this spring and he's certainly long, but not bulky. He has plenty of speed and I think he has shortstop range and arm. It was always presented that he moved to third to give Polanco a long look. It probably enhances his value, as well.

Romero is older and has no positional flexibility. Romero's offense is okay, but probably no better than Escobar or Nuñez and he's pretty lousy with the leather. He might have had his chance when Nuñez and Plouffe went on the DL the same day, but he wasn't on the 40-man and the Twins are averse to losing someone for a two week or less call-up.

While I agree that checking on Maddon is the proper thing to do, I don't think it will make as much difference to the team whether he is hired or not. Inside the industry and amongst the die-hard fans, Maddon has a reputation (a very good one), but I think any manager candidate that the Twins have interviewed has a good reputation and some good ideas. As far as firing up the fan base, the part of the base that is still caring about the Twins (basically Twins Daily regulars) is going to be excited, but Maddon is not a big enough name to interest casual fans.

Regarding the Royals trading for Shields--is he an ace or a high-quality innings eater? They gave up a top prospect but ended up getting Davis and Shields for Myers (and Odorizzi). What that teaches me is not whether a team on the upswing should "go for it", but rather that pitching is the currency of the realm. The Twins, this year, and Colorado, seemingly every year, show that putting up good offensive numbers matters little unless you have sufficient pitching. This postseason is also proof that defense is important, it is just tough to quantify. Finally, if the Royals hadn't made that improbable comeback from down 7-2 in the eighth, would we be using them as a template? I don't think so.

The last two years, the Twins' bullpen has been incredibly stable. They've also been regarded as quite effective, especially when compared to the starting rotation. During the last leg of the season, the bullpen wasn't effective or efficient. I'm going to discuss the players who were on the club for much or most of the season. Six pitchers spent all season with the Twins and most of their innings in the bullpen: Swarzak, Burton, Fien, Duensing, Thielbar and Perkins. They all threw between 47 and 68 innings, with Swarzak again logging the most frames and Thielbar the least. With so many measures to view overall effectiveness, it is really hard to summarize the group, other than to point out that five of these six relievers gave up more hits than innings pitched. Only Glen Perkins struck out more than one batter per inning and all of their ERAs were over three. As a relief staff, the Twins didn't strike out many, but didn't walk many. This wasn't a bullpen that overpowered hitters, as a group they were effective when they hit their spots and the ball hit in play found the gloves of the Twins' fielders. Here's a brief thumbnail of each along with a projection for 2015: Thielbar: After having a fine rookie campaign, Caleb Thielbar pitched a pretty anonymous 47.1 innings. He was pretty close to equally effective vs. left or right. Like most Twins' relievers, he weakened at the end of the season. Thielbar is not eligible for arbitration, which increases his value. I expect that Caleb will be a member of the coming year's bullpen. Duensing: The WHIP is up, Ks are down. Duensing was the only all-season reliever to have his ERA outpace his FIP by a substantial amount. I have liked Duensing because of his versatility and durability, but he will be arb-eligible, he is a strong candidate to be non-tendered. I, for one, hope that the Twins find a way to keep the veteran lefty, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he is traded or non-tendered. Perkins: Publicly, the Twins are saying that Perkins is an All-Star closer and that his pitching arm is fine. While I am glad that there isn't something seriously wrong with his arm, I'm not convinced that his performance going forward won't become an issue. Perkins got his swings and misses and his strikeouts in 2014, but even before his dismal September, his velocity was down and he allowed a lot of hard hit balls, not all of which should have been caught. He allowed 32 hits in 32 innings from June-August before his (injury fueled) drop-off in September. Just about every stat went the wrong way in 2014. At the very least, Perk will have to make some adjustments. Swarzak: He won points with his manager and pitching coach by taking the ball. However, his coach and manager will be different in 2015. Swarzak's role is long relief and they just aren't very valuable unless they can evolve into a late-inning role or a spot in the rotation. It looks to me like long relief is Swarzak's only role. Swarzak garnered four starts, with mostly unimpressive results and wasn't much better in higher leverage situations. The numbers say he regressed to the mean after a very good 2013. His WHIP was up, walks up, and strikeouts down. Since he's arbitration-eligible and out of options, I expect Swarzak will be pitching for someone else next year. Burton: Burton was a solid performer in 2012, less solid in 2013, and started out horribly in 2014. He pitched better as the season wore on, and by the end of the season was the Twins most reliable reliever IMHO. The warning signs started in 2013. His velocity was down, and it lessened the effectiveness of his out pitch (change-up). The numbers point the wrong way--WHIP, hits per IP and BB up, Ks down. Burton also was victimized by base stealers, unable or unwilling to keep runners close. The Twins pretty much closed the door on his return by buying out his 2015 option. The 33 year old Burton will be a free agent and I doubt the Twins will seriously try to re-sign him. Fien: Like Burton and Thielbar, Fien was picked off the scrap heap. His performance when called up in 2012 was excellent and surprising. He started strong in 2013, but faded. That script was followed in 2014. Fien was the principle 8th inning guy and did well holding leads. In his few attempts to close games, he couldn't get it done. Fien's two-pitch mix requires excellent command. If he's a little off, the ball can travel a long, long way. He allowed slightly more hits than innings pitched, struck out far fewer batters and yielded some big innings. At 31, it is doubtful that he can improve much. Much like Swarzak, Duensing, and Burton, it seems likely that we've seen the best these guys have to offer. It makes sense to move several of the bullpen guys and replace them with younger guys with power arms. This concludes my "Postseason Reviews". To summarize, there are a lot of pretty good players already in the majors. The talent needs to be augmented by an improved pitching staff and maybe some premium talent that is getting close to arriving.

Buxton had his best day, nice to see. As long as he's not striking out a ton, I'm not too worried about his AFL stats, but it is always better when your top prospects excel.

Another productive day for Rosario: 2/4 with 3 RBI and 2 SB. He continues to lead the AFL in hitting at .435 and is second in steals (8). Despite only one XBH, Eddie is tied for fourth in RBI (10). Buxton had two singles and a run scored and Kepler had an RBI double and a walk in 4 PAs. Reed pitched a 1-2-3 inning, but Zack Jones walked three batters while retiring only one.

There was a lot of dissing of Kepler on the minor league thread, based on his "bad" year at Fort Myers and "slow start" in the AFL. Kepler finished pretty strong in the FSL (a pitcher's league) and his AFL numbers look pretty good now (much better than Buxton). He's young and he's missed much playing time with injuries. When I saw him in Florida, taking BP with Sano and Buxton, he looked every bit as impressive as the two mega-prospects. Of course, that was two and a half years ago.

The reality is that the Twins have taken a large step on offense. There are a lot of good offensive ballplayers on the roster and they will score plenty of runs next year, as they did this year. The core of this team is okay and pretty young, but they need a competitive pitching staff and improved defense. IMHO, the minimum they need to do is add an outfielder (must be good defensively) and a starter. No matter how many pitchers you add, there is never enough. Reinforcements might be the very top prospects in baseball or maybe like this year, surprises will make their way to the majors. I don't anticipate contention next year, but it is possible. The Twins owe it to their fans to do that much.

Last year, Ricky Nolasco signed what is easily the largest free agent contract ever for the Twins. While not every Twins fan was happy, the consensus was that the Twins had opened their wallets wide to get a guy who would guarantee them innings and competitive starts. In other words, while Nolasco's ceiling wasn't thought to be that of an ace, his floor was thought to be competence or better.For one season, at least, the Twins were totally wrong. They didn't get middle-of-the-rotation production from him. They didn't get bottom-of-the-rotation production. Mostly, the team got very poor performance for what is agreed to be a lot of money. What went wrong? There are some numbers and circumstances that tell the tale. First of all, Nolasco has always given up a lot of hits and hasn't been very good at stranding runners. The naysayers of the contract pointed that out from the beginning. Secondly, Nolasco had spent all his career in the National League, where, without a DH, it is thought to be easier for pitchers to put up good numbers. The last two factors--health and luck-- may or may not be supported by numbers. Nolasco pitched with forearm tightness from spring training until he was disabled in early July. He pitched to an awful 5.90 ERA prior to going on the DL, and post All-Star game yielded a more representative 4.39 ERA. Finally, Nolasco posted a 4.30 FIP, indicating that he suffered from bad luck and bad defense. In watching most of his starts, I would submit that he didn't get much help from his defence and that he suffered from a bunch of bloop hits and some bad hops. I also saw a lot of hard-hit balls with quite a few reaching the seats. What does the future hold? First of all, while the first year was a disaster, Nolasco's body of work suggests he'll bounce back. He's been pretty dependable and reliable for a long time. No, he won't be traded in a salary dump and I sincerely doubt that he'll be exchanged for another "bad" contract. He'll get a chance to come back for the Twins. Secondly, I don't see him in the top of Twins rotation next year or for the duration of his contract. The Twins signed him 10 days short of his 31st birthday, and it is doubtful he'll ever perform better than he has in his better years ('10, '12 and '13) and not close to his best year in '08. In looking at Ricky's season, I would classify eight starts as "good" or better, six as "meh" to average, and the remainder (13) qualify as poor. Certainly not good enough, but there were some decent outings. How much was health related? An open question. I think Nolasco has learned a bit about what he has to do to succeed and might minimize those poor starts. He showed a pretty good breaking ball to go with an OK fastball but he needs to mix his pitches effectively. Finally, the Twins need to improve their defense. Better defensive outfielders would likely disproportionately benefit this veteran hurler. Better defense, better luck and better health will most likely lead to better results. I doubt he will ever be regarded as a good signing, but I also doubt he'll be viewed as a total failure going forward. The Twins should have gotten better production for over $12M per year, I think they'll get closer to it for the rest of his contract. But much like Joe Mauer, people will expect more than he'll produce. Click here to view the article

Ricky Nolasco signed easily the largest free agent contract for the Twins last year. While not every Twins fan was happy, the consensus was that the Twins had opened their wallets wide to get a guy that would guarantee them innings and competitive starts. In other words, while Nolasco's ceiling wasn't thought to be that high, his floor was thought to be competence or better than that. For one season, at least, the Twins were totally wrong. They didn't get middle-of-the-rotation production from him. They didn't get bottom of the rotation production. Mostly, the team got very poor performance for what is agreed to be a lot of money. What went wrong? There are some things numbers that tell the tale. First of all, Nolasco has always given up a lot of hits and hasn't been very good at stranding runners. The naysayers of the contract pointed that out from the beginning. Secondly, Nolasco had spent all his career in the National League, without a DH, thought to be easier for pitchers to put up good numbers. The last two factors may or may not be supported by numbers--Nolasco pitched with forearm tightness from spring training until he was disabled in early July. He pitched to an awful 5.90 ERA prior to going on the DL, post All-Star game yielded a more representative 4.39 ERA. Finally, Nolasco posted a 4.30 FIP, indicating that he suffered from bad luck and bad defense. In watching most of his starts, I would submit that Nolasco didn't get much help behind him and that he suffered from a bunch of bloop hits and some bad hops. I also saw a lot of hard-hit balls with quite a few reaching the seats. What does the future hold? First of all, while the first year was a disaster, Nolasco's body of work suggests he'll bounce back. He's been pretty dependable and reliable for a long time. No, he won't be traded in a salary dump and I sincerely doubt that he'll be exchanged for another "bad" contract. He'll get a chance to come back for the Twins. Secondly, I don't see him in the top of Twins rotation next year or for the duration of his contract. The Twins signed him 10 days short of his 31st birthday, it is doubtful he'll every perform better than he has in his better years ('10, '12 and '13) and not close to his best year in '08. In looking at Ricky's season, I would classify eight starts as "good" or better, six as "meh" to average, and the remainder (13) to qualify as poor. Certainly not good enough, but there were some decent outings. How much was health related? An open question. I think Nolasco has learned a bit about what he has to do to succeed and might minimize those poor starts. He showed a pretty good breaking ball, to go with an okay fastball but he needs to mix his pitches effectively. Finally, the Twins need to improve their defense. Better defensive outfielders would probably disproportionately benefit the veteran hurler. Better defense, better luck and better health will most likely lead to better results. I doubt he ever is regarded as a good signing, but I also doubt he'll be viewed as a total failure going forward. The Twins should have expected better for over $12M per year, I think they'll get closer to it for the rest of his contract. But much like Joe Mauer, people will expect more than he'll produce.

If Hughes says he's healthy, no amount of poor outings in ST will change anything.

Mike Carp (2013) and Steve Pearce (2014) come to mind, although Pearce never was much of a prospect.

It wouldn't surprise me if Ortiz gets a callup either during the season (short term) or in September. There are a lot of LH hitting candidates for platoon/4th OF on the Twins roster, but Ortiz' skill set might be a pretty good match for the Twins' needs.

Isn't what you're proposing just rearranging deck chairs? IMHO, the bench wasn't the cause of the 90 loss season, nor was the infield or offense in general. Pitching and defense. I'll grant that the Twins' bench wasn't any great shakes defensively, with the possible exception of Schafer, but they offer some pop and defensive flexibility.

Orioles Bench ('14 OPS) C Joseph (.618), J Paredes (.752), D Lough (.694), K Johnson (.658), D Young (.779). "Starters" De Aza (.700), Schoop (.598), Pearce (929 OPS, raising his career OPS to .758), R Flaherty (.644). A year ago, several of these guys weren't candidates for a big-league roster. I think if you'd look at the other three semifinalists, you would see plenty of other players with checkered resumès.

I think 80% is a strong number for both Rosario and Buxton. However, I expect at least one and probably more of the relievers to make their debut this year. Add in Mason Melotakis (a lefty) if his arm is sound. As far as Kepler goes, I've been to spring training three straight years and I liked him more three years ago than I do now. However, he is only 21 and has lost plenty of time with injuries. Last year, I pinpointed JO Berrios as a guy with a chance to make a big jump and he did. This year, the guy is Kepler.

Playoff teams can get away with a smaller bullpen and add a specialist like Gore. It really helps KC to have that specialist in postseason. I am almost certain that they wouldn't have won that game vs. Oakland without the extra basestealer.

I haven't tempered my criticisms of Hicks, but there is zero reason to let him go at this point. It appears that many are resigned to Hicks being no more than a stopgap and perhaps a platoon or fourth OF. That may be true. I think his struggles as a left handed hitter are more mental than physical. Any switch hitter with the tools he has is going to be given multiple chances to seize a regular role. I have consistently doubted Hicks' ability to hit at the major league level, but many have added this tool later in their development. Needless to say, this year is huge for Hicks. If he doesn't develop into a big league hitter this year, he may well bounce around from team to team as he will be out of options.

Parm passed thru every team when he was outrighted to Rochester. At that point he had zero trade value. He added a third position (LF), hit very well against left handed pitching and pretty well as a pinch hitter. I think some National League team could look at that skill set and see something at this point. However, the yield in a trade would be pretty small or low percentage, I would guess.