ashbury

The Sophomore Jinx was a common trope when I was growing up, and back then we didn't know to look for signs like a high BABIP that might not be sustainable. Nowadays we spot these things in advance, and guys like Danny Santana don't catch us by surprise as often. This is what has people looking skeptically at Cave this year - though he might still defy this sign (his bat is better than Santana's). Think about how good rookie seasons occur. If a young guy does poorly in April, he may get sent down to AAA before his rookie status is expired, rather than let him see whether the breaks might even out for him over the course of the full season. They also don't suffer the nagging injuries that can torpedo a season. Only the guys doing well stay up long enough to qualify for Rookie of the Year discussion. So there's a bit of a statistical bias built in, where there's more to lose than to gain in the following season, if luck happens to even out in the other direction. Tampa's relatively unheralded Joey Wendle got RoY votes, and his BABIP was .353 - guess who I'd put money on suffering some kind of mild Sophomore Jinx? I don't have the database chops to do it, but I bet if you went back to the era before sabrmetrics took hold, you could take the guys with good rookie seasons and find a strong (negative) correlation between BABIP and how well they did the next season. The same study done on more modern players might not show as strong a correlation because front offices are paying attention to that, putting a different kind of bias into the data. Anyway. Jake Cave. Yeah.

Nice tidbits - his close tie to Polanco was something I don't recall seeing. Also, did you know his parents dance ballet? (yessssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss)

“We should be careful to get out of an experience only the wisdom that is in it and stop there lest we be like the cat that sits down on a hot stove lid. She will never sit down on a hot stove lid again and that is well, but also she will never sit down on a cold one anymore.” -- Mark Twin [sic]

That's a whatever-is-the-opposite-of-scorching Tepid Take, man!

I too am hoping for an under-the-radar pick at #1. I mean, how strong a minor league system would you have, if Royce Lewis is ranked #21 or lower?

Um, isn't that somewhat the exact definition of what a good change is?

If he'd spend more time in the weightroom and less in the darkroom he might have a better chance for success. / yes, I am old - darkrooms? Also, in case anyone would be misled:

There's an opt-out for the player about a week before Spring Training ends, so it puts some tiny bit of pressure on the team to give him at least some solid hope, if not add him to the 40-man right then. I expect a good FO to deal with pressure, particularly when self-imposed pressure. But, still, it's not just like every AAA signing.

Someone posted a tidbit about Kyle Gibson losing a lot of weight due to a bacterial infection, shortly after the signing, and I couldn't help wondering about that connection, if true.

I wouldn't say that. His metaphor really was that poor, the more I think about it.

I wander how many more of these puns we will see.

Yeah, if he's going to use that metaphor, my response is that maybe it's time to stop messing around with fingers and just pay for the heavy duty crowbar that's for sale, to pop that sucker wide open.

Yeah, the second mound visit followed by the tapping of a left or right wrist is kabuki theater whose time has passed. "Which wrist will he motion toward, oh which wrist will he motion toward... oh wait, there's a lefty cleanup hitter in the on-deck circle, maybe I can guess."

Welcome! Now don't be a stranger.

This seems indirect. Is it a comment you'd apply to every prospect, since there's no such thing as a sure thing and yet lots of us attach our hopes? Or, do you have specific concerns about Duran, going as far as likening him to a dead dog? If the latter, would you elaborate?

An investigation probably will reveal that Thad Levine leaked the story to the press in order to get his boss fired, so that he can swoop in and take over. I never take this kind of stuff marked Satire seriously anyway.

The marketing guy who decided to do this is no doubt long-dead. But he sits now at the Right Hand of God.

Runs Will Haunt. http://www.hipsterpig.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/walks-will-haunt-shirt-669x272.jpg

I never saw that before. Great payoff at the end.

Moderator's note: This is getting awfully personal again. Mike's reply happened to be gracious. I would hope that's the norm by now, but please don't push it.

I never had particularly strong hopes, and particularly by that point in the off-season, yeah, Perez was unexpected to me.

I don't recall seeing this tidbit before now. If so, I wonder whether the Twins' unexpectedly signing Perez has any connection with it.

He was never ranked this highly on the mlb.com rankings when with the Diamondbacks - #20 in 2017, not in the top 30 in 2016 or 2018; their 2019 team rankings don't come out for a couple more weeks. This ranking seems aggressive and a little premature to me.

Change the rule on foul balls so that it's four strikes and you're out. That would have sped up at least one game: