ashbury

Sure, but the additional value brought by the glove pales in comparison, bringing a position player up to maybe around the same 15% you mention for a stud pitcher, by this back-of-the-envelope math. Since I see the balance as being more or less close, I guess I'm poaching on your patented technique of not being squarely on either side of the debate either.

Doesn't a similar logic cap a batter's opportunities to aid the offense at a little above 10%?

I'm curious why you believe some player has flown under the radar after all this time and be worth a #2 pick. If it's purely a joke, I apologizing for letting it whoosh past me.

There are rumors that he faked his birth certificate before he was drafted and is actually a few years older.

The one time I ever attended a game there, probably 20 years ago, water was indeed an issue, after some recent flooding of the river. Loved the bridge as a backdrop.

Note that Francis opted out of his current minor league deal; the Reds did not simply cut him. He apparently feels he demonstrated all he needs to, at AAA. You either sign him to a major league contract or you pass for now; nothing in between. If no one offers him what he wants, maybe later on he'll accept a AAA deal again.

A sixth rounder like Herrmann probably didn't get enough of a signing bonus to really affect life plans. Maybe a down payment on a house.

Yeah, the Orioles are still kicking themselves to this day for dealing Milt Pappas.

You can't take that philosophy to an extreme, because anytime a deal is on the table it's because the other guy thinks it's a win for him. But, when your opposite number has gained a reputation for astute player evaluation, as the Rays had done, you do really have to think twice, as you say. Bartlett was and is no Hall of Famer, but he was approaching averageness at the major league level (he even managed an All Star season). And average players, particularly at the skill positions, don't really grow on trees, and can't be just a throw-in to get a deal done.

Man. I figured it had to be a baserunning mishap. He's put in all this work to play nearly every game this season, shaking off derogatory comments about being a soft player, and then as DH he hurts himself at bat?!?!?

Kind of puts him at the mercy of some umpires who call the low strike for pitchers with a "name" more than for others.

1. My problem with the trade at the time was they gave up the wrong pitcher, and were selling low on a shortstop the manager had criticized in the papers. They were trying to deal from their strength, starting pitching, but Garza had too much upside to let go. I can't find my Usenet post on the subject but I know I agreed with other posters who would have preferred trading, say, Slowey or Perkins (both starters at the time of course). I was bothered that Tampa was willing to give up a good-hit bad-field guy who they seemed to have decided wasn't going to fit in their long-term plans. I thought they had taken a cold hard look at their own players and were palming off a high-ceiling guy with bad flaws. I was worried that Tampa was already known for astute talent evaluation, and doing it again on both ends of this deal. 2. Once acquired, you have to try to get the most out of Young, and I don't know what management/coaching could have done differently. I would not have bailed out much sooner than they did, but the prior off-season was the last chance to gain anything of substance for him. 3. I can't let Smith off the hook. Since I don't know what scouting input he had on all the players involved, I can't pretend to know his thinking at the time, but strategically the trade seemed wrong-headed to me in multiple ways, even if well intentioned. Let it also be noted that trading away Bartlett (and his replacement Adam Everett fizzling out) ushered in the Nick Punto Era of Overuse, at shortstop. Bad trade, for that reason alone.

Uncanny prediction.

Checking... why yes, I believe he is. If we put in a good offer, we might be able to snag him.

Are you kidding? With that difference, we could have had another Jason Marquis.

Here's what I don't get: around six months ago, any of the other 29 teams could have signed Josh Willingham. All they had to do was outbid the Minnesota Frickin Twins - not a hard thing to do most off-seasons. "Josh, they're offering you 3 years and only $21M? We'll make it $22M." Done. Now, here in May-going-on-June, some team is suddenly going to offer an attractive package of young talent, in order to take on $18M or so of the remaining contract? Are they going to rub their hands in glee and say "we saved $4M and all we had to give up was our best starting pitching prospect and a couple of middling hitting prospects"? Why would they do it? The Twins have to wait until someone's need due to injury or whatever is a lot higher than right now.

While it doesn't contain much of a roadmap to improvement, it is kind of a Systems Analysis of what is wrong,for an audience that probably isn't as Twins-centric (no pun intended) as the one here. Does anyone disagree that the writer identified the main things that have led to the current state?

Who gets the $25K if the Nats take Komatsu back? The Cardinals paid $50K to get him, right? Did $50K pass from the Twins to Cards when they claimed him on waivers? I don't recall, but seems like they must have; otherwise, it's pretty sweet to just scoop up a guy and then a few weeks later say "never mind, oh, and give us $25K".

An attitude like this will get you picked clean by competing GMs. To me, a #4 starter is someone you plan to give 32 starts if he remains healthy, and you accept his limitations as to his upside without getting an ulcer over it. The #5 starter is someone you don't mind bumping due to rainouts and other dislocations to your rotation, and you're quick to replace him in the rotation if he doesn't produce. A long reliever is probably your choice to move into the #5 slot in case of injury and there's no hot prospect at AAA you want to move up instead. AAAA is your replacement level of pitcher. And unless he's still young with upside, calling someone a AAA pitcher means "organization man" who might get a cup of coffee someday as a reward for loyal service.

The $14M salary keeps coming up. It doesn't rank even close to the top 25 in baseball. Almost every team has someone like this; for many teams it's no dealbreaker at all to add someone. Sure, you think twice about taking on the salary, but if he's the right guy for your needs, half the teams in baseball will make room for him. It's not like Vernon Wells's contract. Honestly, sometimes I feel like these are the Thief River Falls Twins. "We paid our $14 million. Where's our damn pennant?"

Detroit's lineup against Swarzak has five lefties if I counted right. Can it be Gardenhire's judgement that Revere's speed makes it worth having him in RF, with more fly balls going out there? (Is Swarzak hard for right-handers to pull the ball on?) Is Detroit's total speed on the basepaths slow enough that Revere's arm becomes less of a factor holding (e.g.) Cabrera and Fielder to second on someone else's single, especially with Austin Jackson out of the lineup? Stolen bases aren't the only measure of speed but Avila and Boesch are the leaders in this lineup with 2 SB apiece.

The Twins have very few marketable players. If Morneau reaches a level of marketability, you're proposing to combine two tradeable chips for just one outstanding prospect. I don't want to see trades bringing over a gaggle of marginal prospects, but to concentrate so much into one position is so risky in several ways that this wouldn't be the way I'd go.

It's a real dilemma. When he's hurt (DL or playing through it) there is no market for him. When he's productive, the fans would scream. Branch Rickey's philosophy that it's better to trade a player a little too soon than a little to late is especially sharp when it comes to a guy that has a track record of injury, but I just don't see how a GM could survive the storm that would occur in the case of Morneau. Sometimes a team is accused of valuing its own players too much, but here it's externally driven rather than internally. I think we just need to sit back and enjoy him, unless some team offers the really high-end prospects being bandied about here. Actually the prospect would need to be major-league ready, like the Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz trade, and I will be very surprised if this turns out to be possible.