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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    That one goes into my quotes file. Thanks.
  2. ashbury
    This is the pipe dream people continue to cling to, that 2014 means anything. It's been clear for several weeks now that 2015 is the target date for serious contention. 2014 is when the team turns the corner, but should not be expected to really go places quite yet. 2013 is all about laying groundwork where it is possible, and otherwise riding it out with as presentable a team as possible. Two-year signings (and guys such as Willingham who will be with us in that period) will make sense in this last light, and have no bearing on the real story of 2015. I'm not thrilled with Correia, as I was hoping for somewhat better "hold the fort" signings, but ultimately the $10M spent will not hold the team back in either year.
  3. ashbury
    If the MLB trade rumors site is to be believed, Youkilis Seriously Considering Yankees: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com, Youk has a $12M offer in hand from the Yankees. Minnesota's paltry revenue stream from funding Target Field pales in comparison to what drives this market.
  4. ashbury
    Or, maybe Doug can grab a few game-winning balls this season and sell them on eBay to supplement his income.
  5. ashbury
    For all of you pooh-poohing Joe Saunders: this signing isn't even Joe Saunders.
  6. ashbury
    That's the one I won't understand. Not as a starter, even for two months.
  7. ashbury
    That makes a lot of sense to me. I would love to hear why others disagree. Because they are $25MM below last year's spend, have Blackburn coming off next year, and are getting $25MM more in tv revenue next year. Maybe Morneau is coming off next year. I disagree because they have money to spend this year on good pitching. They have even more next year. There is no good reason not to sign pitchers that you expect to be good this year, next year, and the year after. I was posting in reply to the question in the thread. Not to the exclusion of also going after someone better. Also, going after someone doesn't presume success since other teams will be bidding too and the player will have some opinion about where he'd like to go. My point was there is simply no purpose in signing someone who doesn't have even the potential to be better than the multiple AAAA options the Twins currently have for starting pitching.
  8. ashbury
    Capitalization.
  9. ashbury
    +1 to you Sir.
  10. ashbury
    I suppose the league progression for a new manager or coach isn't necessarily the same as for the players. You kind of want really experienced managers at Rookie League level to handle the brand-new players, and also you want someone with a lot of experience to bring the AA/AAA players the final polishing they'll need for the majors. So that leaves low-A and high-A for the place to give a young manager his first taste and learn the craft. I would have guessed low-A, but Jake Mauer is there, right? Then again, I looked up Jake and he coached at GCL and was promoted to manager there, shooting the theory about rookie ball. Who is on board for 2013 in GCL and Elizabethton? Maybe Doug can grab a few game-winning balls this season and sell them on eBay to supplement his income.
  11. ashbury
    Saunders and Lannan are the only ones with a chance to be better than the Deduno line, and both can be had for 2-year contracts which fits the 2015 timetable for the youngsters. I'd go after them both.
  12. ashbury
    According to what I saw on Quick Hits: Liriano, Twins, Dickey, Phillies, Dempster: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com Dempster would prefer an NL team and one that does spring training in Arizona. We really need to cross him off the list for discussion purposes.
  13. ashbury
    Regarding Mastro, I'll recycle last spring's Ft Myers anecdote where he returned to the dugout after his half-inning in the field and Tom Kelly admonished him "let's keep the 360s to a minimum out there, OK?" I guess a bad route to the ball happens to anyone, but once a guy gets a knock on him like that it's tough to live down with the braintrust.
  14. ashbury
    The player option kicks in if he accrues >400 PA in 2013. That makes it somewhat a team option - if he sucks, he'll be on the bench anyway, if he's marginal then his playing time goes down in Aug-Sept if he can't be traded at deadline. Don't know how much, if any, this changes the thinking. Brian Dozier Pedro Florimon Trevor Plouffe Barring injury I just don't see how he doesn't get >400 PA's. If he's healthy and contributing as the super-sub to an extent he reaches the threshold, then just pay the man his $2M in 2014. I'm just saying that even this minimal risk is pretty well covered - if he turns out to be totally not worth that much money at age 40, chances are his 2013 will take care of the question on its own.
  15. ashbury
    Which pick is lost, the elite first-rounder? Or would it be a lower one? I never can remember the rules concerning this. No way I'd sign him and lose a tippy-top draft pick. I'm less jealous about conserving a sandwich-first-rounder and below, but I don't think Bourn is the guy I'd give up such a pick for either.
  16. ashbury
    The player option kicks in if he accrues >400 PA in 2013. That makes it somewhat a team option - if he sucks, he'll be on the bench anyway, if he's marginal then his playing time goes down in Aug-Sept if he can't be traded at deadline. Don't know how much, if any, this changes the thinking.
  17. ashbury
    If this is already an awful team, in the 90s for losses again, is it really on the table to cross the 100-loss threshold by trading another key producer for talent that won't help right away? Losing Willingham doesn't free up enough cash to sign someone else who will help - that is the essence of a team-friendly contract, right? I also question the value of the prospects you'd receive for Morneau unless you pay for some salary, and that leaves you with the same question of whether you can do something to replace him for 2013 (since Parmelee is penciled in for RF in the above lineup). A GM that goes into a season telling his boss that 100 losses is a possible outcome, in exchange for a brighter future, might not have a job the next morning.
  18. ashbury
    Blackburn is on the books for just 2013, since the team and not the player holds the option for 2014; in that sense he matches up with Schumaker except he makes more. We're going to pay Blackburn to pitch for Rochester regardless, it would be no big deal to pay him to pitch for an NL team. I'd give such a deal consideration. He's got a pretty significant platoon split, and is someone the Cardinals avoid allowing to bat against lefties. It'll let Gardy earn his salary. That's good - busy hands are happy hands.
  19. ashbury
    I am by NO means a Bill Smith fan/apologist; I felt he should be fired. But when I look at the list, it kind of jumped out at me that his years weren't a vast wasteland for the farm system.
  20. ashbury
    Again I like this approach to analysis, but I don't think it works out the same way as it does for a guy with an expiring contract, like Morneau. Two years of an $11M Mauer is worth a lot, a real lot. What's left on that contract, though, is 4 more years at $23M of (likely) declining production and/or moving out entirely from catcher where his production makes him so valuable compared to 1B or DH. Might the risk in 2018 of paying $23M for .750 in OPS from your 1B/DH be downright negative, so much so that it subtracts what you are willing to offer in trade? I think probably yes. As I said, a useful form of analysis, in the literal sense of breaking down the question into manageable pieces.
  21. ashbury
    I've been a big Terry Ryan believer for a long while now. His presentation at the SABR Convention this summer was one of the best I've heard an insider offer. He was supposed to take part in a panel discussion, but the other panelists didn't show up, so he proceeded to give a 30-minute soliloquy that amounted to "GM 101". He's smart, experienced, humble, and as much of a straight shooter as anyone who has to manage public expectations can be. (No, this is not part of my job application for within the Twins organization.)
  22. ashbury
    They can not possibly believe Mastro can be a full-timer, even in a transitional season, can they?
  23. ashbury
    Yeah, Terry Ryan's OJT is just about complete.
  24. ashbury
    Do you think this is the floor for where the 2013 season could go, if they do a complete fire sale? How does 110 losses grab you?
  25. ashbury
    We need to sign someone to a one-year deal. Mastro had a good 2012 but as a full-timer he'd be exposed. I'd like to let Hicks play his way to the majors, not just promote him.
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