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Blog Entries posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    I started to be snarky and post this to a particular thread that was annoying me.  But I thought twice, and will post it here, in a vacuum.
    What's The Best Logical Fallacy?
    A famous Logic professor told me the Appeal to Authority Fallacy is the best.
    Anyone who doesn't say the Ad Hominem Fallacy is best is a poopyhead.
    Argument from Repetition Fallacy is the best. Repetition. Argument from. Best.
    Begging the Question Fallacy is the best because it is superior to all others.
    Cherry Picking Fallacy is the best; this message is all you need, to see that.
    Circular Argument Fallacy is best because nothing is better than an argument that is circular.
    Either the False Dilemma Fallacy, or pure evil, is best, ergo False Dilemma.
    Everyone is saying the Bandwagon Fallacy is best, so it must be.
    False Equivalence Fallacy is no worse than any other and therefore is the best.
    Have you or have you not stopped using the best: the Loaded Question Fallacy?
    I bet double my last bet the next one will say the Gambler's Fallacy is best.
    I just heard about the Recency Bias Fallacy. It's gotta be the best one ever.
    I mistyped another fallacy, so Hasty Generalization Fallacy is the best.
    I used to think Stockholm Syndrome Fallacy wasn't best but I'm warming up to it.
    I've had success with Proof by Example Fallacy as the best. This is Exhibit A.
    If Affirming the Consequent Fallacy is the best, then I wrote this. And I did.
    If the Slippery Slope Fallacy isn't the best, pretty soon we'll have anarchy.
    If you loved me you'd let me call the Emotional Appeal Fallacy the best.
    It can't be a best list if you leave out the No True Scotsman Fallacy.
    It's your job to prove the Burden of Proof Fallacy ISN'T the best. Not mine.
    Super geniuses Dunning & Kruger invented the best Fallacy, Overconfidence Bias.
    The Appeal to Nature Fallacy is best - it's only natural.
    The Black and White Fallacy is either the best, or else all logic is wrong.
    The Ipse Dixit Fallacy is best, full stop, case closed.
    The Red Herring Fallacy is the best because, oh look, a squirrel!
    The Straw Man Fallacy is the best because my opponent intends to outlaw it.
    The Sunk Cost Fallacy is best and it's too late to pick a different one anyway.
    The Survivorship Fallacy is best because it saved my life.
    The long-neglected Appeal to Pity Fallacy is the one to support as best.
    To deny Moral Equivalence Fallacy as the best is just like robbing a bank.
    The Tautology Fallacy is best. When outlawed only outlaws will have Tautologies.
  2. ashbury

    Managerial selection: a broader opportunity

    By ashbury,


    Front Office
    The Twins are in search of a new manager.  Regardless of whom they pick, I'm glad they are interviewing a bunch of people.  Hopefully most of them, in the process of explaining how they'd run things in the dugout and in the clubhouse, will give their frank view of "what's wrong with the Twins at present?" 
    I wish they had done a similar interviewing process when they elevated Zoll to the (meaningless) GM title on the nameplate on his desk, instead of apparently reflexively hiring from within.
    Now I hope Falvey is capable of synthesizing from these snippets of what they must be saying all around the league, because he's driven this franchise into the ditch and currently qualifies as at best a competent but below-average major league executive. 
    I know it's throwing red meat out there, to dare call Falvey "competent," but that's what he is, no less but no more.  I would consider firing him if I knew of a slam-dunk above-average alternative; but the likelihood is to replace him with some other eager up-and-coming member of somebody else's FO, and that's how we got here in the first place.  
    If I were in Joe Pohlad's shoes, I would want a debriefing from Falvey as to what he's learned from the managerial interviews, and what in particular he plans to do to get better, himself.  What's going to be his Special Sauce, going forward?  Because it sure hasn't been drafting, or trades, or development - some hits but an awful lot of misses. 
    The talk of sustained excellence back in 2016 had me hoping he really had ideas on that front; turns out he told them that just to get the job and is just like anyone else who depends on tanking and rebuilding every decade or so - same as any other executive not in a large market.  Fool me once, shame on you, right?
     
  3. ashbury

    The FalVine Draft Record - First Round

    By ashbury,


    MLB Draft
    Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were brought on board to head the Twins front office in late 2016.  We have nearly a decade of drafts to look at now.  What might have happened under other leadership? 
    I took a look at the first rounders picked by the Twins 2017-25 and then checked which player was taken next.  That's hardly an infallible way to look at it, but resembles a kind of "crowd sourcing" among the dozen or so other GMs in the majors during the same era as to how it might have gone had they been drafting in the Twins place.  And it attempts to avoid cherry-picking of one hypothetical outcome or another way, way down the draft list, where multiple other teams whiffed too. 
    I've opted to omit the 2024-25 drafts since it's way too soon to evaluate them, but for the rest I show the bWAR career totals side by side:
    2023    Walker Jenkins  0.0     As      Jacob Wilson    2.2
    2023    Charlee Soto    0.0     Marlins Thomas White    0.0
    2022    Brooks Lee      -0.8    Royals  Gavin Cross     0.0
    2021    Chase Petty     -0.8    Padres  Jackson Merrill 6.1
    2021    Noah Miller     0.0     Pirates Anthony Solometo        0.0
    2020    Aaron Sabato    0.0     Yanks   Austin Wells    2.6
    2019    Keoni Cavaco    0.0     Phils   Bryson Stott    9.4
    2019    Matt Wallner    4.9     Rays    Seth Johnson    -0.4
    2018    Trevor Larnach  3.6     Brewers Brice Turang    11.5
    2017    Royce Lewis     4.0     Red     Hunter Greene   12.4
    2017    Brent Rooker    8.9     Marlins Brian Miller    -0.1
    Each one is worth discussing, which I'll do from the bottom up.  Rooker of course is a very interesting case, and he has turned himself into a quality major league hitter after two other organizations after the Twins gave up on him too.  He was a throw-in on the trade that brought us Paddack and Pagan, so even though we didn't reap his full potential by a long shot, at least we cashed him in for something and the next team who was drafting wound up with nothing to speak of.  Advantage: FalVine.
    Royce Lewis is maybe even more interesting.  We coulda had Greene, and instead got a player whose potential seems to have been decimated by injury.  Advantage: not Falvine.
    Larnach?  He's been okay.  The next guy in line has been a whole lot better so far. Advantage: not FalVine. 
    Wallner.  He's been somewhat better than Larnach. The Rays didn't do nearly as well  Advantage: FalVine.
    Cavaco. Oh boy.  Coulda had a major leaguer.  Advantage: not FalVine.
    Sabato.  Oh boy.  Coulda had a major leaguer - could we use an additional catcher right now?  Advantage: not FalVine.
    Miller.  He's knocking on the major league door with the Dodgers; we traded him for the unique athletic stylings of Manuel Margot. The next guy drafted hasn't panned out yet, although he still might.  I'll try not to hold Margot against Miller personally - whether foolishly or not, the Twins cashed Miller in for something.  Advantage (ever so slightly): FalVine.
    Petty.  Another interesting case.  We cashed him in for two years of Sonny Gray.  But, but, but, the Padres have Merrill and will continue to have him for many years, per contract.  I don't think the Padres would make that same trade.  Advantage: not FalVine.
    Lee.  The current WAR is ugly, but it's reasonable to think he'll continue to have a major league career - by my recollection, it was considered an 8-player draft and the Twins were choosing #8, but give them credit for not overthinking it.  The next guy drafted looks like he's not gonna make it.  Advantage: FalVine.
    Soto.  This is a comparison of two high-school pitchers, so it's way premature.  The other guy has displayed more health/endurance so far, and with good ERAs - he's reached AA at age 20 and not yet missed a beat.  Advantage: I'm gonna call this a 'push' for the time being but the tea leaves are currently pointing in the wrong direction.
    Jenkins.  The big kahuna, and the reason I drew the line at the 2023 draft when it's obviously premature.  It's interesting because the next guy drafted has reached the majors and is doing very well.  Do the Twins now regret choosing Jenkins?  I would doubt it - his ceiling is sky high.  Would the As have chosen differently than the Twins did, back in 2023?  I also doubt it - this was considered a 5-player draft and the Twins were choosing #5.  With all things considered, I'm going to maybe be controversial and not call it too soon to tell.  Advantage: a push - the Twins simply did what was expected and (arguably) did what any FO would have done.
    So, count them up.  Of the 11 picks, I give FalVine the edge on 4, I call it a push on 2, and it's a worse outcome on 5.
    But I think that a simple count understates it.  Which would you rather have right now?
    Merrill, Wells, Stott, Turang, Greene? Lee, Gray (suppose we would have extended him), Wallner, Larnach, Lewis? Oof.  Going by WAR for 2025 all by itself (it's anyone's guess going forward), I'd have to say: Not An Impressive Body Of Work.
    I want a 11 Do-Overs.  😀
  4. ashbury

    Top Ten wild card moments

    By ashbury,


    Wild Card
    So much was packed into two games!  A day later, I've put together a Top Ten list of moments, with no particular metric except my own sense of drama in the moment.  Ranking is influenced by impact on the game's outcome, but there is an "Oh No He Didn't!" factor that counts for a lot.  You will argue with some choices I am sure - I would probably have ranked them slightly differently yesterday and might change my mind tomorrow.
     
     
     
     
     
    Game 1 Inning 4: Carlos Correa bails out Polanco, throws out Bichette at home Game 2 Inning 5: Carlos Correa pickoff of Guerrero at second Game 1 Inning 1: Royce Lewis HR #1 Game 1 Inning 3: Royce Lewis HR #2 Game 1 Inning 6: Michael A Taylor at wall for catch of flyball by Chapman Game 2 Inning 8: Griffin Jax unassisted putout like a blocking fullback on Biggio Game 1 Inning 9: Jhoan Duran taking throw to put out Springer and end 18 game losing streak Game 2 Inning 6: Caleb Theilbar 643 DP on Chapman after close foul ball Game 2 Inning 4: Carlos Correa RBI single for first run against Kikuchi Game 2 Inning 9: Jhoan Duran third out swinging strikeout of Varsho for the sweep Here also are my ten honorable mentions, ranked merely in sequential order of when they happened.
    Game 1 Inning 2 Michael A Taylor coming in hard for the catch against Chapman
    Game 1 Inning 4 Max Kepler with difficult grab of Guerrero smash
    Game 1 Inning 5 Pablo Lopez strikes out Belt swinging with Chapman on third
    Game 1 Inning 8 Griffin Jax two big strikeouts after Guerrero leadoff double
    Game 1 Inning 8 Donovan Solano with unassisted putout of Kirk to end inning
    Game 2 Inning 1 Sonny Gray strikes out Biggio to strand two baserunners
    Game 2 Inning 4 Max Kepler single against Kikuchi in relief of Berrios
    Game 2 Inning 8 Michael A Taylor with grab on tricky fly by Guerrero
    Game 2 Inning 8 Carlos Correa hit on hand by pitch but stays in game
    Game 2 Inning 9 Jhoan Duran finger cut, 2 bad pitches, then he locks in
    Some may say this was the Royce Lewis Series, and obviously Game 1 is his to own forever, but Carlos Correa gets my series MVP vote, with that key RBI in Game 2 tipping the scales.
    Notice how frequently Guerrero figured into the proceedings.  Chapman too.  We dodged some bullets, didn't we.
    I also can't emphasize enough just how big the moment was when Kepler singled against Kikuchi.  They bring in the lefty, Kepler had his work cut out for him, and he finds a way.  None of the balls put in play that inning were things of beauty really, but conversely the moment was not too big for our hitters.  No moment was more key than Max's, and yet he can't even crack the Top Ten for me.  Wow, what a series!
     
  5. ashbury

    A very OOTP trade deadline

    By ashbury,


    Twins
    Regular readers here will recall that I enjoy the computer game Out Of The Park.  Since it's a game and I'm not hurting anyone, I abuse some of its features terribly.  In particular, there is often no sense of there being 24 hours in a day.  So, as GM in the game, my typical style is to do a top-to-bottom assessment of every level of my franchise's farm system and 40-man on the first day of the off-season, then I use the trading interface to sell off every questionable asset that has trade value, in exchange for players who fit my preferences better.  All this in one day of game-time.
    Normally I feel as though a dozen trades in one day is a serious betrayal of reality.
    Now I feel fine.  Even if yesterday was the trade deadline, not the first day after the World Series, I have confirmation that it can be done. 
    I can't help chuckling.  Sometimes we say a player is putting up video-game numbers.  Yesterday was a video-game day for our GM.
  6. ashbury

    Good Judgment with Numbers

    By ashbury,


    Analytics
    I ran across an article, in a completely non-sports context (ethical choices), that fairly well sums up my view on using analytics wisely.
    Have a read, see what you think.  I'm not going to short-circuit discussion by providing a summary; if no discussion occurs, so be it.
    https://www.goodthoughts.blog/p/good-judgment-with-numbers
  7. ashbury
    Where's the game thread for our AFL team today?  Guess I have to start my own. 
    J/K.  Here's a photo though. 

    That's Kala'i Rosario in RF in case you can't tell.  😊  Had a good time watching a bad, sloppy game last night, with USAF Chief.
    / edit - and that's Rosario with a HR swing in the 5th in the cover photo 
     
  8. ashbury
    We all know Rocco is costing the Twins a chance for a win, every time he fills out the lineup card or comes out to make a pitching change.  And don't get me started on his pinch-hitting choices.  So, put a number on it. How many needless losses are on Rocco, so far this season?
  9. ashbury
    You bet your sweet bippy they do.  They do platoon.  A lot.  My apologies for the click-bait subject line.  (It's fun.  Almost went with "One Weird Trick Your 2024 Twins Use To Platoon")
    How do the Twins rank versus the other 29 teams, in plate appearances by batters in same-arm matchups?
    LHB-vs-LHP:   29th  (64 PA, OPS of .759 which is 5th in the majors)
    RHB-vs-RHP: 23rd  (752 PA, OPS of .680 which is 15th in the majors)
    They try their darndest not to let it happen, especially with their lefty bats.  And here is how they do in opposite arm matchups:
    RHB-vs-LHP:  7th  (520 PA, OPS of .707 which is 16th in the majors)
    LHB-vs-RHP:  6th  (920 PA, OPS of .693 which is 18th in the majors)
    What is the point of these numbers?  One, in case you wondered whether they go to great lengths to set up favorable hitting matchups, yes, yes they do.  Two, they aren't notably effective at exploiting these matchups.  Three, an oddity is that their unfavorable lefty matchups rank better in OPS versus their competitors than their favorable ones do.
    Maybe the modest level of success at bat this season (they rank 16th overall in OPS) would be worse if they weren't doing things as they are.  Plus in addition also too, because the manager chooses which batter hits when, there is bias to all these statistics that is outside my control to account for.  The better results for left-handed batters against lefty pitchers than righties, in absolute terms, suggests Rocco is careful which bats to play in that matchup.
    But mostly what I see is that they go to extremes, and reap little to no overall reward for their efforts.  The lefty bats don't clobber righties, and the righty bats don't crush lefties.  Why, again, are we even doing this?
    I can't help having flashbacks to the old quote from the dugout: "I managed good, but they sure played bad."  (ChatGPT 3.5 attributes this to Casey Stengel; therefore I feel 99% confident that it must have been someone else.  Rocco Baldelli may become the source of the quote, going forward.)  But at some point, that guy who "managed good" needs to stop and ask if it's worth the trouble, and what better thing might be tried.
  10. ashbury

    One Strike an' Yer Out!

    By ashbury,


    The Hypothetical Baseball League
    Baseball didn't start out as a spectator sport, merely a pastime for children, farm boys, or city folk with enough open park space to play in.  Three strikes were the rule and fastballs weren't permitted, to allow rank novices to have a chance at putting the ball in play for some healthful fun and a little light competition.  In early variants the pitcher was required to suit the batter's preference as to low or high pitches.
    What if we were devising rules made for spectators and played by experienced professionals, though?  How about, One Strike And You're Out?
    If you put the ball in play, you take your chances on the bases, as now.  If the pitcher doesn't throw you a strike, you take first base.  If you swing and miss, or otherwise fail to put the ball in play, that's an out.  Yes, foul balls are outs - next batter please.  Home runs?  For the moment I think we can allow them as they are now (fan favorites when not to excess) - but I'm open to every ball out of the field of play being a foul ball and thus an out, if this variant turns out to raise the number of homers versus now by too much.
    Same basic design to the game - still 3 bases to run, still 3 outs to retire the side.  For the spectator, it goes beyond what the current pitch-clock does to reduce the time between pitches, and eliminates the pitches that don't decide anything - we diehard fans may enjoy the pitcher-batter chess match but the casual fan is usually oblivious and is texting on their phone.
    Unsure what constitutes a full game in this fast-paced variant - 9 innings would be over with in under an hour.  In early baseball the teams would play to a run total, but I don't think that's wise now.  So, 27 innings? (I like powers of 3.)  If the games are short enough, complete games come back into the realm of everyday occurrences - is that desirable or not? (One ace pitcher could dominate the league outcome to a greater extent than now.)
    There wouldn't be stolen bases (or its variants like hit and run), perforce - are there new and entertaining strategies that could emerge? 
    The pitcher-batter dynamic would be different, with every pitch essentially a 3-2 offering - no nibbling, no waste pitches or defensive swings.  You can still walk a dangerous hitter if that seems strategic, and go after the weaker hitters.  Does this version favor the present-day batter, or the pitcher - I mean would batting average and OPS go up or down?
    What say you?  Better?  Worse?  Simply "different"?  "Too different"?
  11. ashbury

    Spring Training 2023

    By ashbury,


    2023
    As is my custom, I've taken a few pictures during this visit to Fort Myers.  Well, a few hundred.  Most are crap and I don't know yet which is which, and I won't be able to sort through until I'm back from vacation, probably.  But yesterday on the back fields, during an away game for the big club, was a lot of fun because of whom they left behind.  Buxton, Correa, and Kirilloff all batted (DHed) during one of the two mixed AA-AAA games.  And there were other players to watch as well. David Festa, Marco Raya, Connor Prielipp, and Jordan Balazovic in particular.





    Prielipp. I think had his stuff going this day , as he struck out the side in his first of two innings if I'm not mistaken.  He gave up a run in the second inning on a lucky bouncer that put a runner on and then a solid double to right center, but he recovered to complete the inning with at least one other strikeout that made the batter look overmatched.

    This is not the most flattering image of Balazovic but here he is putting in some side work before the games.  Afterward he went over to an adjoining field to practice pickoff moves to second and first but the photos are pretty nondescript.

    Finally, a Derek Falvey sighting at the center of the back fields during the games.

  12. ashbury

    Arizona Fall League 2022

    By ashbury,


    2022
    The Glendale Desert Dogs had several representatives from the Twins' farm system.  Denny Bentley, Francis Peguero, Jon Olsen and Ryan Shreve were the pitchers, and the position players were Alex Isola, Austin Martin and Edouard Julien.  Here's a few photos from my trip in late October.  For two of the three games I was joined by the illustrious USAFChief.
    Driving there meant going through some dusty desert miles.  Here is one of the denizens of the town of Beatty NV where I quartered for the night at the picturesque Atomic Inn.

    I arrived in time for the evening game on the 27th.  Unfortunately the game itself wasn't much, from a Twins fan's point of view.  Austin Martin played CF and led off, but his 0-4 ledger was redeemed only by a walk.  I don't recall him really being tested on defense, but he handled the routine plays (which mainly involved picking up the ball after base hits).  Denny Bentley and Francis Peguero both appeared and neither one really shone - Bentley went 2 hitless innings while walking 4 and striking out 4, while Peguero gave up 3 unearned runs in his inning of work, striking out 2 but also surrendering 3 hits that "didn't count" for earned runs in light of the third baseman's error.  I didn't take any photos of that 9-6 loss to the hated Salt River Rafters.  Probably just as well.
    Friday's game was more entertaining, and I devoted myself to snapping some shots.  Jon Olsen had a very fine afternoon on the mound, going 4 innings against the hated Surprise Saguaros and giving up only 1 hit while striking out 4 and walking nobody.  Olsen's had some bad luck with injuries after his college career and thus is a bit of a late bloomer as a 25-year old at high-A Cedar Rapids, but hopefully may have opened some eyes with his AFL showing.  Here he is in a couple of shots.

             
    Edouard Julien batted leadoff and played second base.  He got a hit and scored, and also later drove in a run. 
    I don't recall any particular plays of note in the field for him.  Here's a pretty representative example of his swing.

    While Austin Martin was not in the lineup, he did coach at first base some of the time. 
    Here he is with his ubiquitous head scarf underneath the helmet.

    Alex Isola was catcher in this game.  He had an annoying habit of lobbing the ball back to the pitcher.
    I would love to know the details on that, such as whether it was just a temporary expedient for some reason. 
    He did throw out a runner at second base during the game.  Here's a shot of his leg kick when at bat.

    On to Saturday's game, which was an 11 am affair to allow AFL fans to move from ballpark to ballpark and see a triple-header. 
    The hated Mesa Solar Sox won this one 10-3.  In this game Martin and Julien hit leadoff and second, and were the double play combo.
    So I was very interested in watching them interact. Here they are getting ready for their turns at bat.

    Here they are in the field getting ready for a play.

    Unfortunately the only interesting play was a routine double-play ball.
    Martin bollixed up the throw so that Julien was pulled off the bag and did well to get even the single out at second base.   
    No photo of that.  Back to the hitting.  Here's Julien taking a cut.

    Were any batters hit by a pitch in this game, you ask?  Why yes.  Here is one.  No damage done, though.

    Peguero got another inning of work in this game.  I neglected to get any photos of him this time either. 
    Unfortunately, he gave up another run on a walk and a hit.  So not a good showing by him. 
    Ryan Shreve did not appear while I was there. 
    Well, that was my weekend.  A nice excuse for 3 days of great weather instead of the colder snowier conditions in northern Nevada.
     
     
  13. ashbury

    Twins union rep

    By ashbury,


    Players Union
    Does anyone here remember who have been the Twins' players union representatives in years prior to Taylor Rogers?
    Rogers was the team's rep, Garver was the assistant rep.  Both gone via trade.  After the CBA was finished up.
    I wish I had a history of the past several years, for this role on the team, before drawing conclusions from a Small Sample Size of 2.  OTOH the recent CBA renewal was contentious, and perhaps recent history of the quiet years before the present wouldn't tell us much anyway.
  14. ashbury

    The Old Orb Match

    By ashbury,


    Cartoons
    Two blog posts in one day.  But I ran across this, and in honor of Opening Day I just have to share:
    Credit where due, this is apparently the work of Nathan W. Pyle: https://www.facebook.com/nathanwpyle2
     
  15. ashbury

    Risk vs Reward

    By ashbury,


    2022
    Disclaimer: Despite the photo, no Byron Buxtons were used in the preparation of this blog entry.
    Do I have to say it? Okay, I will, just to get it out of the way: I love the Correa signing.  Teams should be trying to get good players, and we just got one of the best baseball players on the planet, in the middle of what should be his prime years - a center-cut slice, as they say. 
    But ever since I heard about it, TWO LONG DAYS AGO, there's been something on my mind.  Risk versus reward.  And I don't think I've seen any of the writeups here, or elsewhere, look at it from this angle.  Did we really outmaneuver the Yankees?  I'm not sure that's what happened, or that New York's front office is gnashing their teeth with regret in the slightest.
    Everyone's treating this like it's a one-year contract, and I agree that that's the most likely way it plays out.  But it's not a one-year contract - the Twins committed to three years.  There's the saying that there's no such thing as a bad one-year contract.  The converse is that (because team budgets don't carry over from year to year) everything longer than one year requires the signing team to put its neck into a noose, to one degree or another.
    So, what's the risk with this contract, and what's the reward?  The risk is pretty obvious and pretty easy to define - Correa could get hit by a meteor tomorrow* and the Twins still would be on the hook for the full $105.3M, which by their usual accounting would apply equally to the budgets of those three years and in some way impact their ability to operate.  Probably they'll pay him $35.1M for one year of service and then thank him for his service as he departs.  But they've put $105.3M on the table, and are risking it.  You know how you say you'd "bet your house" on some sure proposition? You don't really ever do that, because you would actually have to put the deed to your house out there to be taken if you are proved wrong, and you'd start thinking about all the ways it could indeed go wrong.  It's like that here.  The Twins haven't bet the (Pohlads') house, but there's a significant chunk of change on the table that wasn't there three days ago.  That aspect still seems underappreciated.
    Now what's the reward?  Much harder to estimate.  There is expected reward and then there's maximum reward.  Let's focus on the maximum here, since I started with maximum risk.  I'll use WAR as a catch-all for how to measure a player's contribution.  If you want to skip the details, jump down to "I'll Do The Homework Later."
    Carlos Correa may not yet have had his "career year" - remember what I said about us getting a center-cut slice?  He might go full-MVP bananas-mode in 2022.  Shohei Ohtani was MVP last year and his pitching/batting WAR on b-r.com added up to 9.0.  So let's go with that.  If Correa has that kind of year, he walks after the season, of course - goodbye and good luck, good sir.
    Let's say he goes out and puts up "only" a season like last year, with a WAR of 7.  Same outcome.  He walks away, with smiles all around.
    But maybe 2021 actually was his career year, and he follows up like that with an all-star level WAR of 5.  Same outcome - maybe he loves his teammates here, but bidness is bidness, amirite - he leaves.
    Maybe he's only above average and his WAR is 3.  Probably he walks, right?  Still can market himself to a big market team for a long contract, certainly for more than the $70.2M he's still owed.
    What if he's average, and/or injured part of the time, and his WAR is 2.  Maybe he stays, maybe he walks.  What if it goes really badly and his WAR is 1?  Same uncertainty - maybe he stays, trying to rebuild value.  WAR can be 0 too, or even negative.  Probably he stays, trying to rebuild value.
    Okay, sorry to belabor, but my point is that if he stays, it's almost certainly tied to low performance relative to expectations.  Reeeeeally low.
    Now, consider Year 2, 2023.  Seems like it's 90% odds that he's gone, and whatever WAR he earned for the Twins this one year is the end of the story.  But in that remaining 10% case, what will be your expectation of WAR for 2023, given that he put up 0 or 1 WAR in 2022?  Depends on why, but probably a WAR of 9 is now off the table - chances of a bounceback like that are just too remote.  Could he return to 2021 levels and deliver 7 WAR?  Sure, maybe.  If he does, then he walks after the year, and his contribution to the Twins is that number plus his (low) 2021 number.  Like around... 8 or 9, for the two years together?  It can't be much higher, because he would have left already.  Of course he might not deliver 7, but only 5 - he still walks after Year Two.  3 WAR - probably he walks.  Lower than that, maybe he stays.
    So if it was 10% that he's staying for Year 2, probably it's also at most 50/50 that he's back for Year 3, or 5%.  And that will be only if he's put up WAR in the neighborhood of 0-2 the first year and followed up with 0-2 WAR the second year.  Now what are the odds that he suddenly goes bananas at last, after 2 straight sub-par years?  Really small, right?  Anything can happen, but an MVP type season really is unlikely.  He could win Comeback Player of the Year with a 5 WAR.  I think that's about the ceiling at that point.  0-2, plus 0-2, plus 5, equals... gee, 9 at most, again.
    There are all kinds of ways to do this kind of analysis, because nothing is certain.  But I've convinced myself that the absolute maximum the Twins can sanely hope for, from this particular contract, is a total WAR of 9, whether in one season or spread across multiple.
    "I'll Do The Homework Later."  Good, I don't blame you.  To recap: the Twins stand to reap 9 WAR as a maximum, by signing Correa - go back and do the homework if you think it should be higher, I really don't think you'll come up with a sound argument.  The Twins' maximum risk is $105.3M.  We don't expect the latter to happen, but that's the risk.
    Now, let's compare.  What if a deep-pockets team had gone ahead and instead given Correa a 10-year $325M contract like some were saying, and let's assume no opt-outs?  Let's do a quick version of the max risk/reward analysis for that - bear with me for one paragraph.  As before, the maximum risk on the contract is simple: $325M is on the line, win lose or Tommy John Surgery.  What's the maximum reward?  If we're allowing a chance at an MVP-like 9 WAR before, we need to do it again.  He might do that in any of the 10 years of the contract, but let's don't go crazy and think he does it every time.  Let's say 1 year of 9 WAR, and a 7 (a second monster year), a couple years of 5 WAR (still a huge asset), three more years of 3 WAR (above average), and then 1 WAR each of the other three years if he hits a steep decline or sprinkles in an injury-plagued season or two earlier in the sequence.  So really, I'm not talking absolute maximum after all, merely an optimistic outlook for a window of contention involving a great player.  Those 10 numbers, they all add up to 38 WAR.  A starry-eyed optimist could look at a potential future hall-of famer and come up with an argument for more, like 50 - meaning inner-circle HoF, which I can't honestly rule out for him at age 27 - he's less than halfway through his career and is more than halfway to HoF status IMO.  But let's go with 38. 
    Estimated performance would likely be lower but remember, this is max risk and max reward.
    So, put yourself in the Yankees' shoes.  Do you risk $105.3M for at most 8 WAR, like the Twins are doing?  Or do you say, **** that, I mean forget that, we're rich, and by tripling our risk, we can more than triple our potential reward.  Isn't that what smart money does?
    So I think they, New York, say no to the smaller contract.  They have deep pockets, and won't risk significant money for modest maximum reward, when they could invest 3X as much in risk and really hit the jackpot.
    Max risk and max reward are not the only analyses a team would make.  Not by a long shot.  Anticipated actual cost and estimated reward also are crucial.  Let's say 4 WAR for 2021 to reward the (very likely) $35.1M he gets from the Twins.  Compare that to maybe 30 WAR over a 10 year contract that costs $325M.  Now the dollars per WAR are much more favorable to the short contract - it is center-cut after all, an advantage not shared by the full 10-year cut of meat.
    But likely outcomes aren't enough.  A front-office that didn't present a solid risk/reward analysis, which I have merely half-assed in this lengthy post, would be laughed out of the room by their higher-ups - if, that is, the higher-ups had an actual sense of humor and were in a forgiving mood and didn't fire them for lack of due diligence.
    Bottom line, this is a mid-market contract, in my estimation.  The expected reward fits the expected price, but the risks are disproportionate.  A big team goes big.  No regrets for the Yankees.  This is the kind of deal the Twins have to embrace, but by no means did they "put one over on them" when they traded Donaldson to the Yanks to free up the cash to make this happen.  The Twins had to, in effect, buy Correa a $70.2M insurance policy, to get him to commit to just one year at $35.1M.  It probably adds $10M to the cost that the team's CPA has to factor in.
    Thanks for your patience.  I welcome nit-picks, or bigger criticisms.
     
     
    * Let's assume a small meteor, and like in Princess Bride he's only mostly dead, yet still slightly alive and expecting direct deposits at his bank to continue
  16. ashbury

    Matt Wallner hit by pitch

    By ashbury,


    2021
    Matt Wallner was hit in the face by a pitch in this afternoon's game versus Mesa.  Looked like his lower jaw.  I happened to be taking photos during that plate appearance - it's a bit out of focus and blurry but I can't help uploading and posting it anyway.  Matt was able to make his way to the training room at the far end of the ballpark under his own power, so I'm hopeful that he escaped serious injury.

  17. ashbury

    Scorpions Stomp Solar Sox

    By ashbury,


    2021
    Thursday afternoon's game in Mesa was marred by an injury to Matt Wallner due to an errant pitch high and inside.  I wrote up what I know here.  I find it disquieting that we have not quickly heard a simple "X-rays proved negative" by mid-evening.  The 11-4 drubbing administered to the home Solar Sox by our Twins' Scottsdale Scorpions pales in comparison to the concern I have for Matt, but here is my game summary from a Twins fan perspective.
    In attendance along with me at Sloan Park was Twins Daily stalwart USAFChief.  Perhaps there were other luminaries in attendance, but this was enough star power for me!
    Wallner was the only Twins representative in the batting order, playing in RF.  In terms of fielding, he handled a routine fly out and dealt capably with the base hits in his direction.  As for his work at bat... after striking out to end the first inning, he launched a no-doubter HR to left center to lead off the third, off of Oakland pitching prospect Jeff Criswell (presumably no relation to the famed narrator of Plan Nine From Outer Space).  Two innings later, he came to bat again and on 2-0 was hit in the leg on the bounce by a 55-foot pitch that I'll assume to be a curve that got away from Criswell, still in the game for the last of his four innings of work.  I thought nothing of it at the moment,  but then the next inning Wallner faced a different pitcher, Hogan Harris also of the A's, and I really, really, really hope this was nothing more than a coincidence - the two HBP had little in common in terms of the kind of pitch, and the second one occurred on a 1-2 count which is not a typical situation for a purpose pitch - but in the box score they all look the same.  Wallner headed straight to the dugout after the 95-MPH beaning, not taking even a step toward the base he was being awarded.  After the third out he was escorted across the field, walking under his own power and seemingly steadily, to the left field corner where presumably medical attention was to be had.  Here is a photo of him, a pitch or two before the fateful one:

    The only Twins farmhand to pitch was Zach Featherstone.  As with Laweryson yesterday, the fastballs I saw were low-90s at best, but his mix of pitches was effective and his body of work in the eighth inning was a clean 1-2-3, with two swinging strikeouts after a harmless fly to left.  (Chief noted that, what with Funderburk also, the Twins apparently are cornering the market on three-syllable pitcher names.  Maybe it's the new market inefficiency.)
    The layout of the ballpark allows fans to wander over toward the bullpen and observe pitchers warming up from a vantage point above them, and here is a shot of Zach before he came into the game:

    These are the only Twins tidbits to offer from the game, but it happens that Wallner was not the only person on the field who had unwanted contact with a baseball.  Scorpions third base coach Ydwin Villegas (Giants) was nailed, in the shoulder I think, by a sharp foul liner.  He was cool as a cucumber, having dodged actual injury, and popped right back up to resume signaling the base runners as though nothing at all had happened.  Occupational hazard, which is why base coaches earn the big bucks.
    The AFL has some experimental rules.  One I noticed in both my games so far is that the umpires frequently check pitchers caps and other areas of the uniform for banned substances.  Chief remarked on the lack of extreme defensive shifts.  And a walk seems to have been awarded to Scorpions first baseman Triston Casas (Red Sox) when the pitcher apparently exceeded the 15-second time limit while there was a 3-ball count - we at first thought a balk had been called, to advance the runners, except that Casas also trotted down to first.  This prompted me to look up the rules for the AFL this year, and some these are covered at this website.  (I had failed to notice that the bases were slightly larger, and also that in last night's Salt River game the balls and strikes were not being called by the plate ump.)
    It was a super pleasant afternoon, with temperatures in the low 80s.  But it is sobering to realize that Chief and I have not brought the best of luck to Twins prospects in the AFL when we view games together, as we have witnessed AFL-season ending injuries to Taylor Rogers (struck in the shoulder by a line drive) and Lamont Wade (concussion after collision with a fellow outfielder).  I hope that Matt bounces back as well as these two players have been able to.
    Mrs Ash and I will be concluding the Phoenix area portion of our vacation with one more game, a home game at Scottsdale, Friday afternoon.
  18. ashbury

    40 Starts a Season

    By ashbury,


    Historical
    Recently a side comment came up about why modern pitchers don't start 40 games a season like they used to.  The question intrigued me so I did a little searching.  The results surprised me.  Mostly I used the Stathead tool at baseball-reference.com, and the most useful table I constructed is this:
    https://stathead.com/tiny/SBDaM
    Since the modern era, 1901 and forward, it's never been the case that pitchers in general were regularly making 40 starts.
    For periods of years, the major league leader would regularly reach 40.  A few years, there would be more than just one, but never ever as many as there were teams, meaning less than one per team.  So it wasn't part of the job description, it was an achievement.
    There was kind of a peak of 40-game starts around 1904-08, another 1914-17, then it picked up again after expansion in 1962 (when the season got a little longer), then quieted down and peaked again around 1973, then basically died out around 1979.  The last 40-game starter was knuckleballer Charlie Hough in 1987, who come to think of it had that in common with other "recent" 40-game-starters Phil Niekro and Wilbur Wood. 
    In those 87 years, there were a total of 140 such pitcher-seasons.  One or two a year.  Zero since then of course.
    The individual pitchers weren't doing it for years and years without end, either.  Only 31 such seasons were logged by pitchers over the age of 30 (despite the myth that that was when a player would enter his prime).  8 by anyone 35 or older.  Starting 40 was always a young man's game.
    For another perspective, Sandy Koufax in 1965 holds the record for season strikeout percentage, 29.5%, among pitchers who started 40 games in a season (and of course Sandy led his entire league in that regard that year, among players who qualified for the ERA title).  By contrast, in 2019 there were 16 ERA qualifiers who had a higher percentage than that.  And even though Sandy was a "unicorn" of his era, and also a prototype for today's pitcher, he was finished before his 31st birthday.  Most of the guys who ever started 40 games weren't striking out the side.
    Today it's 5-man rotations. Divided into 162 games, that's about 32 starts per season.
    Used to be 4-man rotations. Divided into 162, that gives you 40. Divided into the older 154-game schedule, that's 38 or so.
    Of course in really olden days, back into the 19th century, you might have 3 or even 2 workhorses who handled the bulk of the chores.  But back then the schedules could be more erratic too, and the game was just played differently.
    Anyway, major league teams settled into an every-fourth-game routine a lot quicker than people sometimes remember.  Well, remember reading about.  That made 40 an uncommon feat.
    Managers would love to have their best pitcher get as many starts as possible, so they'd be sending someone out 40 times if they could.  The tImes changed, not the intestinal fortitude of the players.
  19. ashbury

    Woo! Worcester

    By ashbury,


    2021
    Mrs Ash and I went to Worcester last night to see their brand-new AAA team, the Worcester Red Sox (known almost exclusively as the Woo Sox).  It's part of our farewell tour in New England as we prepare to move back to Nevada.
    We took a train scheduled to arrive an hour early, so as to have time to take in the sights, but mechanical troubles had us traveling about 5 MPH for the last 5 miles, meaning we arrived about when the next train was supposed to (though it became delayed too, in a ripple effect), and we found our seats only in time for the first pitch.
    Polar Park, named for a local soft-drink maker, is a nice modern ballpark.  Most of the food tends toward mundane hot dogs and nachos, but we did pass up the long line for the George's Coney Island hot dog stand (which is a satellite of a Worcester landmark that Mrs Ash and I ate at on one previous trip to the city) and likewise long line at a BBQ stand.  The park was pretty close to a sellout crowd on this Wednesday night, not too surprising for a brand new team/park but the waning of the pandemic makes everything hard to predict.
    The game itself was not much better than the train ride, a 18-5 drubbing at the hands of the visiting Rochester Red Wings, who apparently took the Twins' snub personally when St Paul came into the league, as they have aligned themselves with another franchise, the Nationals. What ingrates.  The visitors had the losing record (7-18) coming in, whereas the home team was 15-10, but the game didn't reflect the past.
    Daniel Palka was in the lineup as DH for the Wings, and Chris Herrmann subbed in at catcher for the Woo Sox. Twins fans may recall they were once swapped for each other in a trade with Arizona.  Both have bounced around a bit since then, still seeking another chance in the majors. Palka had much the better of it last night, launching home runs in two consecutive innings; I don't remember Herrmann doing anything except look tall behind the plate.  Palka was aided by a very short porch in right field, with an outfield wall insufficiently high to moderate the advantage to a dead-pull lefty bat.  Kind of the opposite layout to Fenway Park in that regard, and the AAA decision makers apparently chose to not even try to draw comparisons to the major league counterpart 40 miles to the east. (Although, they do play Sweet Caroline during the 8th inning, because Red Sox.)
    Among young talent in the lineups, Rochester had only Luis Garcia, a highly-regarded 21-year old second baseman, and Carter Kieboom, who I thought was a "perennial prospect" but turns out to be still only 23.  Worcester had a broader smattering of starters 25 and under,  I'm not sure anyone really stood out for me - I saw various bad reads and weak arms in the outfield, and a strange decision by third-baseman Yairo Munoz to not dive for a grounder than looked reachable. 
    Until about the 8th inning or so, none of the pitchers for either side registered higher than about 90 on the radar gun.  Not many sharp breaking pitches diving into the dirt, for that matter.  Made it nearly through the entire first inning before a walk and then a strikeout.  Coincidentally or not, 26-year old Wings starter Sterling Sharp was the youngest of ten men (five for each team) to take the mound.  For pitchers, AAA seems to be the graveyard of dreams, and few with a live fastball or good sliders stay there for long.  AAA is really kind of my least favorite level of baseball, but oh well.  On a less grouchy note, Rochester hurler Joan Baez came into the game for the sixth inning; if they played Diamonds & Rust on the PA system when he was introduced, I missed it.
    I snapped a few photos at the park but none came out as anything interesting. Here's a routine shot of Josh Ockimey striking out against Wings starter Sharp in the fourth inning.

     
  22. ashbury
    I feel like posting a little bit on my trip to Phoenix for the Arizona Fall League.
     
    I arrived Thursday and was picked up at the airport by ashburydavid. Nice that he could take a day off from work to join his dad for a long weekend of baseball watching. Salt River, the team all the Twins prospects are on, had played earlier in the day, so we contented ourselves watching the evening game in Scottsdale. You can get good seats at the AFL:
     

     
    The game itself between Scottsdale and Peoria was very crisply played. It was a 1-0 pitchers duel through 7 innings, before Peoria scored 3 more, and although the home team notched a couple on a ninth inning homer by first baseman Hall, this 4-2 outcome was completed in slightly more than two hours. Scorpions left fielder Trammell made a pair of very fine catches that might have kept the final score from being more lopsided. We had good luck in being seated near a few very talkative fans who kept us company during the game.
     
    Friday we made our way over to Surprise Stadium for a Salt River Rafters game against the host Saguaros. By the luck of the draw I've been there for several AFL games over the years, and I think it's a nice one:
     

     
    Travis Blankenhorn was the only Twins prospect who played today. He went 1 for 4 plus a walk, scoring two runs. Here he is, on deck - he sees his shadow, so six more weeks of AFL?
     

     
    Blankenhorn made a nice defensive play in the sixth inning with an unassisted putout on a grounder before throwing to first to complete a DP. And here is his home run trot - coming around to score after his third-inning walk, when Sam Hilliard hit a homer, but it's still a trot. He also scored in the top of the sixth on a sac fly, after singling and then moving up a base at a time. He caught the pop fly that ended the 8-3 victory in 7 innings (scheduled as such, to avoid tiring the pitching staffs in advance of the Fall Stars Game coming up on Saturday.)
     

     
    This is Salt River manager Tommy Watkins after making a pitching change.
     

     
    After the game, Tommy caught us unawares, by noticing my son and me with Twins or Twins Cities related gear (me with my St Paul Saints shirt, ashburydavid with his Rochester Red Wings shirt and his TC Twins hat), seated down low as we were. He made a point of asking where we were from. Just a 30 second interaction, but it's clear why Tommy gets such favorable reviews from all who meet him - he is an outgoing guy, plain and simple.
     
    Tomorrow we go back to Surprise for the aforementioned Fall Stars Game.
  23. ashbury
    I'm a five-minute walk away from the east-west commuter train that also stops at Fenway Park. So with Game 1 of the World Series being held at Fenway, Tuesday night, despite not being a diehard Red Sox fan and despite the forecast of iffy weather I felt like I'd be a fool not to take advantage of the logistics.
     
    The title for this blog entry is deceptive because I didn't actually "attend" the game. I didn't have tickets, and of course no way was I going to pay scalper prices. But I thought I'd enjoy the atmosphere outside the ballpark. It's like Wrigley, and maybe a few others, with thriving neighborhoods that are worth enjoying even when the home team isn't playing.
     
    I decided to arrive early, in part because I wasn't sure whether the train might already be packed with fans from further out, if I left nearer to game time. My train wasn't too bad, but they only come once an hour, and who knows what the next one was like. So, at 5:15 I arrived at Yawkey station (still so-named even though nearby Yawkey Way has been renamed back to Jersey Street).
     

     
    David Ortiz Drive is a short block leading to Brookline Avenue which is one of the bordering streets for the ballpark. It has uniform-number monuments to some of their greats. Here you see the ones for Boggs and Ortiz, and to the left you can see the obscured number for Pedro (45).
     

     
    My general plan was to wander around, until game time (8:10 or so), and then take the next train back home assuming things had quieted down outside the park. I was prepared to stay later, if some kind of awesomeness broke out. The area was already busy with people milling around. Cars were double-parked in several places, apparently with official blessing, and the parking lots were advertising a pretty consistent $60 fee. The commuter rail station had a sign stating that the last train of the night would be held until 1:00 am, more than an hour later than its normal schedule; since the game lasted until about midnight, that wasn't really overkill.
     
    I took a long way around, heading south on Brookline and then heading back up on Van Ness.
     

     
    Boston isn't really laid out on a grid and you can get disoriented pretty easily, but I've learned my way around Fenway by now. I reached the intersection with Jersey Street where several street vendors are set up and some of the entry gates to the ballpark are. That part of Jersey Street is actually part of the team's venue - the metal detectors and turnstiles are outdoors and the street is just a ballpark concourse on game day - which is why I couldn't use Jersey as part of my circuit.
     

     

     
    I kept walking, to Ipswich Street and then Landsdowne Street. It all was pretty busy - here is Landsdowne at its junction with Brookline, basically the end of my circuit. All the bars or restaurants I would have considered trying had huge lines of people waiting to get in, to little surprise.
     

     
    Security was everywhere you looked. Dogs sniffed the trunks of cars entering the parking lot within Fenway Park itself, SWAT team humvees were stationed in various places, heavy city trucks were eventually parked to block key intersections, and of course you were never out of sight of police officers (uniformed and I'm sure plainclothes).
     

     

     

     
    There also was the expected swarm of media vehicles.
     

     
    I mentioned not being willing to pay scalper's prices, but actually I don't think I had an opportunity. There were plenty of scalpers, but they were always asking if I had tickets to sell, not if I wanted to buy. I think I had seen $400 for standing room tickets, on StubHub. Whatever few tickets changed hands on the street at game time were apparently already spoken for. I saw a couple of people who seemed more normal and less scuzzy than the typical scalper, with signs begging for cheap tickets because they were diehard Sox fans or whatever, but I have little doubt that they would have immediately forgotten their loyalty to the team and would have turned a quick profit had someone been suckered in by their pleas.
     
    It wasn't raining when I arrived, but around sundown there started to be drizzle, and pretty soon it rained hard and there was significant lightning a mile or two away. I had brought an umbrella and was walking in light hiking boots, but those who had decided to rely on their hooded jackets decided to cram into the already crowded bars and restaurants, or else (if they had tickets) make their way into the ballpark, because the streets were suddenly pretty sparse of pedestrians. I walked the perimeter of the ballpark again. For some reason I never get tired of photographing the Citgo sign.
     

     
    Somewhere along the perimeter, I spotted a window into which you could see a makeshift Media Room.
     

     
    Even aside from the rain, I have to say that the atmosphere somewhat disappointed me. I guess I was expecting something like a big block party. There was one guy playing makeshift drums on the bridge over I-90, and a couple of times I heard a "Let's Go Red Sox" chant or similar commotion from people lined up to get inside the park, but that's just like a normal game day. A couple of locations on my circuit had a very strong odor of weed, I think maybe from the broadcast media enclave behind a chain link fence within the Fenway Park premises. I believe the Mayor and the Police Commisioner had let it be known that no nonsense was going to be brooked, and maybe that accounts for what I saw on the streets. Certainly, I wasn't hoping for hooliganism, especially with the presence of a smattering of Dodger Blue jerseys and hats, and I'm not sure exactly what I was hoping for, but this was altogether too normal. So buttoned-down. I opted to cut my evening slightly short and take a train that departed shortly before first pitch.
     
    Still, I'm glad I went. After sundown, the Prudential Building had their lights on to urge on the Sox to victory, and I think any baseball fan would have felt some excitement, Sox fan or not. Game 1 of the World Series, baby!
     

     

     

  24. ashbury
    [re-posted from the night's minor league summary thread...]
     
    I was in attendance at Pawtucket last night, so let me offer some additional impressions and details.
     
    First, a minor correction: the Red Wings' final run scored on a wild pitch. The bases were not loaded when Motter walked, but when ball-four skittered past Mike Ohlman, Edgar Corcino on third scored anyway. He was there because of another wild pitch on the previous batter.
     
    I don't have a lot to say about Pawtucket's players in this game, as I really don't follow the Red Sox and definitely have no clue about their prospect pipeline, but I must mention starter Mike Shawaryn. He was much, much better than his line score indicates, pitching perfect innings his first time through the lineup, in his very first appearance at AAA at age 23. He probably had only that one really bad pitch, to Astudillo, and the additional run came in the seventh as described above after he was out of the game. Looks like the Red Sox have found a way to feed their farm system with 5th round draft picks. Maybe having a short-season single-A team for college draftees is their secret sauce, hint hint.
     
    Anderson wasn't very effective for us in his stint as "opener", but the run scored in the bottom of the first was as much due to runners taking advantage of Jeremy Hazelbaker's arm as the base hits themselves. Tony Renda's "double" should have been a single but the word apparently is out and he challenged the center fielder and won. And then what seemed like a harmless single by Rusney Castillo plated Renda, with the throw from CF taking way too long to get there. I'm guessing there's a reason Hazelbaker was available for cash. Anyway, Anderson then permitted a single to Sam Travis, so the run probably would have scored anyway. So, not a good start to the game for either guy.
     
    Nick Gordon also had a stinker of a game. No errors in the scoresheet, but his opportunities to impress, on a couple of plays that major league shortstops would likely make, went unclaimed. One was a grounder to his right that I thought he would get to but didn't. Another was one where he had to come in, but his throw was high and pulled Austin Tyler Tyler Austin off of first base. What's more, he looked feeble at the plate, striking out twice and making two easy outs in the air. Mrs Ash remarked that he might do better if he didn't have his pant legs pulled up so high - I think he should take Mrs Ash's scouting advice to heart as she is rarely wrong about anything. In any case, do NOT bring this guy up now, and probably don't bring him up for a September look-see either. Maybe he'll be ready someday, but he is not, today.
     
    Speaking of Austin Tyler Tyler Austin, I thought he acquitted himself well. He didn't get any base hits, but one of his outs was a sharp liner to third base in the eighth, and he walked which resulted in a run when Astudillo hit a homer. The first baseman also got three chances to field popups, all in the final two innings - indeed he notched the last putout before the fatal home run.
     
    Speaking of liners to third, Astudillo scorched an even tougher one to Tony Renda's right in the sixth inning. You simply can't play a liner better than Renda did, leaving his feet and stretching to full extension to barely snag that rocket. Beautiful play. Kudos to him.
     
    Speaking of Willians Astudillo, that home run to left in the fourth inning was a rocket too - a no-doubter. It was one of the few bright spots in the game for my team. He was unremarkable in left field, making the easy fly outs and handling the base hits in his direction. However, what stood out to me was how very slowly he moved when going to his position, and slow coming back to the dugout. He exerted effort on balls in play, as I said, but I don't recall someone taking that much time to and from. It's like he's the anti-Charlie Hustle (which itself is not originally a compliment, so I'm not sure what bearing it has).
     
    Speaking of home runs, how about that Tyler Duffey? On that last batter, it was a 2-2 count, with curveballs missing twice. I don't often try to guess pitches, but I was sure it would be a fastball, and mentioned to Mrs Ash that they should come back with another curve instead. I'd go with another curve even on 3-2, too, and if it was a walk, so be it - there were two out. Nope, flat, 91-MPH, nothing fastball. Brandon Phillips was sitting on it, just like me. Ain't I smart? Ball game. There was of course also the dong by Josh Ockimey that tied it in the eighth. Duffey is another of the disappointments this franchise has suffered in the past few years. It won't surprise me if he's non-tendered this off-season - this guy never progressed beyond being a two-pitch pitcher, and now he's down to one. He's cooked. Or, if some other team signs him and gets something out of him, a hard look needs to be taken at the coaching and why they didn't help him find answers.
     
    Speaking of fastballs, Stephen Gonsalves.... oops never mind. He may have reached 90 or 91 on the radar gun display, but generally sat at 88 or 89. I can't identify off-speed pitches, one from another, but he had a variety that would register at 79 or 74 or even 69 - a knuckler? Visibly slow, and entertaining, from our excellent first-base-side cheap-seats. That much differential from the fastball is said to become counter-productive, but he's getting AAA guys out. The homer in the third inning to the aforementioned Tony Renda was a cheapie to right, barely clearing the 325 foot mark, so I don't hold that against him. He weakened in the 7th, walking the first two batters, and was bailed out slightly by an ill-advised stolen base attempt by the PawSox' Mike Miller - down two runs, you need to be awfully sure you can take the base, and he was out by a mile thanks to an accurate throw by Juan Graterol. Gonsalves might have gotten out of it unscored-upon, had Gordon made the play previously mentioned. It's unclear to me that Gonsalves's stuff is going to play, in the majors, but if this is who he is, let's bring him up now, or in September, and start to find out. Unlike Gordon, he's mastered his game, such as it is. If he bombs, there will still be time to option him to the minors mid-2019 and try to retool his entire game in some manner.
     
    Speaking of ill-advised baserunning, with the score tied 4-4 in the top of the ninth, Edgar Corcino got a clean single to left leading off, and was (wait for it) out by a mile trying to stretch it to a double. Left fielder Kyle Wren had come up with the ball practically by the time Corcino rounded first. There was time to go a third of the way and then change his mind. Nope. As events played out (which of course might not have), we would have had bases loaded with one out, with the top of the order coming up. And that lone out was thanks to a possibly game-saving snag by PawSox right fielder Aneury Tavarez near the foul line on a drive by Graterol. Of course the top of our order was third baseman Taylor Motter followed by Gordon, and Motter actually did strike out looking, which brings us to Gordon, so never mind.
     
    Speaking of never mind, when we didn't score in the top of the ninth, and I saw Duffey coming out again, I said to Mrs Ash, this won't take long. It took longer than I expected, five batters. Good for him, I guess.
     
    Speaking of good, despite the ragtag nature of our lineup, and the generally negative results, I enjoyed the evening a lot. McCoy Stadium gets a lot of criticism locally, but as far as I can see it's only because there are no luxury boxes to make the team more profitable. The park has been kept up, and I have yet to have a poor experience there. It's my east coast version of the Oakland Coliseum - a straight ahead old school place to watch a baseball game, in my book. The site-grilled Italian sausage with onions and green peppers never fails to satisfy, likewise the Foolproof Backyahd [sic] IPA available on draft which leaves me pleasantly sleepy.
     
     
    Source: Article: Twins Minor League Report (8/3): Brusdar Cruises, Severino Soars
  25. ashbury

    Lollygagging?

    By ashbury,

    I happened upon this nice leaping stab by Polanco from a few days ago:
     
    https://mediadownloads.mlb.com/mlbam/mp4/2018/07/03/2224124283/1530583378940/asset_2500K.mp4
     
    Question: on a ball hit to the left side, does Brian Dozier have anything better to do than make a beeline for second base, on the small chance it's caught and they might try to double off the runner? The runner has to change direction, Dozier could have been close to full speed by that point. Seems like he was napping there.
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