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ashbury

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Blog Entries posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    In response to a forum reply that I felt crossed a boundary, where the writer questioned the courage of Andrew Albers, instead of just deleting the post I decided to try a bit of "see how you like it". Since it stirred up some controversy, I am posting here the private message I later sent:
     
     
    Brock and I were both basically reacting to one sentence:
     
    Albers could have at least had the balls to fight for it if he really wanted it.
     
    Nothing else in your several posts was an issue for me at least.
     
    And your choice of the word "balls", while also off-color and thus a mild problem, isn't the issue either; you could have said
     
    Albers could have at least had the courage to fight for it if he really wanted it.
     
    and it would still have been a problem.
     
    Please review the Updated Comment Policy if you are unclear. Rule #1 is
     
    1. Personal attacks or insults towards other commenters, the post author, journalists, teams, players, members of baseball organizations or agents. (You can be critical, but not personal.)
     
    There is just no place in the forums at TD for a comment like yours about a player's courage.
     
    Your reaction to my questionable choice of a "see how you like it when it is directed at you" response demonstrates that the advice I was given to just delete comments that harm the tone of any given thread may work best in the long run; it's not some omniscient power but simply a way to keep threads from degenerating. Maybe your response was in that same vein but I don't think so; you just seemed to not like it to have your own courage questioned or to have someone presume to know what goes on inside your head. Yet that's what you wanted to do regarding Albers' ninth inning.
     
    Please instead accept the criticism in the spirit it was intended, to recognize when a comment you're about to post approaches an area where a moderator will need to step in. Most people manage to steer far clear, and mostly you do too I think.
  5. ashbury
    This is a repeat of a forum post I made in December 2012. I'm blogging it now mostly for my own convenience; I took the time to look up several pitchers and I don't want to have to search again when I try to remember what I learned. The question was, if you were GM would you have matched the 5/$80M deal for Detroit's Anibal Sanchez? The context now is, when if ever would you sign a pitcher to a long term deal, given that there is room in the budget until the rookies start to earn big dough ...
     
     
    My snap reaction was yes I would sign Sanchez. Then I tried to think about how Terry Ryan sees it, in terms of risk. Sign him to 5 years, then the last year of the contract you'll be paying him (say) $15M or $16M in 2017. This is right in the heart of the new window of competitiveness, right? Will that $16M be part of the winning formula? Or will it be a boat-anchor preventing you from making a deal to push this juggernaut team to a second straight title?
     
    Well, roll the clock back 5 years to 2007. Not that all of these pitchers were available to sign at the time, but let's focus on who was completing his 28-year-old season, just as Sanchez is now. Limit it to guys who clearly were established starters. These 28-year-olds were:
     
    Carlos Silva
    Johan Santana
    Gil Meche
    John Lackey
    Jeremy Guthrie
    Mark Buehrle
    Erik Bedard
     
    Isn't this kind of a Murderer's Row of pitchers who teams actually *did* make an investment in? And with the exception of Buehrle, aren't they the ones that, 5 years later, fans of their current teams wail and gnash their teeth over?
     
    Now put yourself in Ryan's shoes. Are you really going to pull the trigger on Sanchez for 5 years?
     
    As I said above, I would. And this quick little bit of research reaffirms my reminder to myself, that when Terry Ryan and I disagree about something, take another good hard look.
  6. ashbury

    Anagram update

    By ashbury,

    http://media.cmgdigital.com/shared/img/photos/2012/01/26/19/ca/original_shcool_photo.jpg
    Previously I posted anagrams of the 2013 Twins active roster. Here are permutations on some recent additions:
     
    Oswaldo Arcia
    Iowa Carloads
    I Also A Coward
    A Cow Loads Air
     
    Scott Diamond
    Candid Mottos
    Misadd Cotton
    Condom Tit Ads
     
    Pedro Hernandez
    Preharden Dozen
    Pardoned Her Zen
    End Red Porn Haze
     
    Anthony Swarzak
    What's Zany? Akron!
    Hawk Annoys Tzar
    Who Yanks Tarzan?
  9. ashbury
    I'll try this as a blog entry instead of a forum post. 
    The Tigers continue to shop Rick Porcello to no avail. MLB Trade Rumors states that the Padres turned down a chance to trade either Huston Street or Luke Gregerson to get him. Other deals have failed to materialize. I suppose the equivalent from the Twins standpoint would be Glen Perkins, factoring in the NL and the Padres home park. Would you make that deal, if the Tigers also saw it that way (and were willing to trade intra-division)?
     
    Porcello was a hotshot coming out of HS who had a very promising major league season as a 20 year old, but has failed to progress (or regressed, actually), sporting an ultra-Twins-like K/9 in the 5's the last two years which actually lifts his lifetime average a bit. Few walks but very hittable (Pitch To Contact?), with not overly many HR. He's in his arbitration years but can't be a free agent until 2016, according to baseball-reference.com. Based on his track record he'd not be much of an improvement over what the Twins rotation already consists of, but at age 24 there is still seems the chance of a breakout, in which case you have him for three years, at increasing cost of course.
     
    My own take is that I'd be on the fence and would want my scouts to have a consensus that Porcello can still improve before I'd go for such a trade. (Which is hardly different from any proposed trade, but even more so than usual.) It's tempting, but you'd want to have a clear idea what it is you think you can fix, which is always a risky proposition when other people have already tried.
  10. ashbury
    Originally posted in reply to thread These Call-Ups Are a Downer
     
    The Twins' 40-man roster is apparently at 39 right now, and the desire for waiver-wire flexibility is a reason given not to bring up one or two other players for September, such as Anthony Slama.
     
    How can a last-place team have any issues at all managing their 40-man roster? Just sooooo many talented players, the other teams will scoop an All-Star-in-the-making right up, if the Twins aren't careful?
     
    Indecisiveness, maybe that's the reason. Morneau, will he or won't he return to previous levels? Span, can we squeeze just a bit more out of a trade? Middle infielders, so many flashy-glove no-stick players to choose from, better hang onto a bunch and see if one steps forward.
     
    Meanwhile, at least, the scouts and front-office can make up their minds about Slama not being able to translate AAA success to the majors. So I guess indecision can't be the culprit after all.
     
    Without going through the 40-man, spot by spot, doesn't it break down roughly like this?

    your 25 best guys for the major league roster
    5 AAAA guys to cover the inevitable injuries
    5 young guys who are too old to be left off but on whom the jury is still out (a little indecisiveness is necessary and good)
    5 contingency spots because what I just laid out here is too simple

    What additional needs and purposes are clogging up the Twins' 40-man roster? With 21 pitchers and 18 position players currently listed, I guess the area of concern is clear. I'm not in the mood to discuss spots #39, #38, ... .
     
    A forty-man roster is intended to be a bit of a headache for the "have" teams. Not the have-nots.
  11. ashbury
    The transactions of the last few days boil down to Blackburn being replaced by Deduno, and Parmelee being replaced by... Fien? So, we're back to a roster of 13 pitchers and 3 catchers. Very little scope for pinch-hitting and pinch-running. I guess this has been hashed to death, but it still seems weird to me. Wasn't so long ago that 11 pitchers were enough for a staff. And I think it detracts from the enjoyment of the tactical game - instead of managers having to anticipate opposing moves and countering them, it's just a matter of running wave after wave of fresh arms out there to throw heat for an inning.
  15. ashbury

    Why is it...?

    By ashbury,

    Why is it that on most days, when I channel surf to ESPN during commercial breaks of the other show I'm watching, I never get an update on how the Twins' game is going, but when they lose a game 16-4 like yesterday it's constantly the game shown on the crawl at the bottom of the screen when I click over there? Ugh.
  16. ashbury
    May 15: on this day in Twins history, 2012, Jason Marquis gave up three home runs in one inning, in a lethargic 5-0 loss that also featured (not to be outdone) four different Twins grounding into double plays.
     
    Wait, what? You have to wait a year to mark a milestone like this one?
  17. ashbury
    The Twins lost 2-1 yesterday, wasting a pretty good season debut by P.J. Walters. From the AP story:
    The struggling Twins offense couldn't come up with a timely hit. Minnesota went 0 for 9 with runners in scoring position and stranded six runners over the final four innings.
    "We had plenty of chances, but it just didn't work out for us tonight,'' Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said.
     
    Hm. On offense, the Twins had 5 hits total, but 6 walks to go with them. The Jays had 7 hits, and no walks. The Jays grounded into two double plays; the Twins didn't ground into any but had a runner cut down on a fly ball. The teams had two extra base hits apiece:, a double and a homer for the Jays; two doubles for the Twins. For the game:
     
    TOR: BA=.219 OBP=.219 SLG=.344 OPS=.563
    MIN: BA=.161 OBP=.297 SLG=.225 OPS=.522
     
    These are both poor batting results, as you could expect in a 2-1 game. OPS isn't the greatest stat in the world, for various reasons - but it says that in this game, Toronto did a little less poorly. The Twins did a nearly acceptable job at getting guys on base (league average OBP this year is .317), but their slugging was putrid (league SLG is .405). The eventual game winning hit was Bautista's home run. Mauer and Dozier apparently gave the ball a ride but only collected doubles. That turned out to be the difference in the game.
     
    Walks are better than outs, doubles are better than singles, and homers trump them all. Bautista didn't have anyone on base when he connected. But he put himself in scoring position nonetheless while standing at home plate, and the Jays won. (Since the Twins only run was scored on a walk, this means two of the three runs in the game were not covered by the RISP statistic, for what that's worth.)
     
    For the season, the Twins are 10th in the league in getting on base. They are dead last in slugging average (and in home runs in particular). Not coincidentally, they are also dead last in runs scored. The table setting is below par, and the power is simply not there at all. Adding Komatsu and Mastroianni only addresses the table setting, at best, and does nothing for the glaring need, throwing the offense further out of balance even if they do better than the players they replaced.
     
    Until both facets of the game improve, and a balance between getting on base and driving runners in is achieved, run scoring is going to remain at a premium.
     
    And until such time as the Twins still lose despite getting better game-OPS than their opponent, lamenting about 0-9 with runners in scoring position is for, well, losers.
  18. ashbury
    As of May 3, 2011, the sainted Drew Butera had this set of stats for the Twins:
    AB: 50
    BB: 2
    H: 5
    2B: 2
    R: 3
    RBI: 4
    BA: .100
    OBP: .151
    SLG: .140
    OPS: .291
     
    This morning, I see this for Trevor Plouffe 2012:
    AB: 36
    BB: 7
    H: 4
    2B: 1
    HR: 1
    R: 3
    RBI: 2
    BA: .111
    OBP: .256
    SLG: .222
    OPS: .478
     
    He's been basically five walks, and one double turned into a home run, better than Drew Butera.
     
    Drew came back strong to finish with a .449 OPS. Trevor is already higher than this so can we hope for great things from here on out?
  19. ashbury

    Timely hitting

    By ashbury,

    A digression from the discussion on Morneau's wrist, concerning an opinion that the Twins were one timely hit away from winning the 4-3 game with the Angels, that I'll post here now.
     
    Twins had 8 hits, Angels had 8 hits. Was it a matter of timeliness?
     
    Angels 1st: double, followed by single. One run scores.
    Angels 4th: single, followed by homer. Two runs score.
    Angels 7th: homer. One run scores.
    Twins 8th: hpb, double, single, single, single: Three runs score.
     
    For the game, Twins had seven singles and one double. Angels had four singles, two doubles and two homers; one of their doubles was not "timely" (no one on base, no one drove Trout in), one of the homers was not "timely" (no one on base).
     
    Weak-hitting table-setting teams depend on long scoring sequences and hope for timeliness. Better-hitting teams get extra base hits and let the good things happen. OBP is good; OPS is better.
  20. ashbury

    Clarity, please

    By ashbury,

    I hope it's not like last year. After the slow start they turned the corner mid-season, and on July 20 just before the trade deadline they were up to 46-51, mirror image of Detroit's 51-46. There was hope of taking a weak division if momentum continued. As a result, despite treading water the next few days up to the very deadline, they did not move any veterans for prospects; they weren't buyers, either, thank goodness. I supported this approach, at the time. But it was a sad mirage: the bottom fell out (and Detroit straightened up) and even by very early August it was already apparent that the gamble to stay in the race had failed. The outlook for 2012 and 2013 might be very much better now, had some players (free-agents-to-be, marginal guys clogging the system) been traded for good prospects. It cost us a year.
     
    This year, I hope for clarity at the trade deadline, and then let Ryan try to work some front-office magic in one direction or the other. Good baseball, but no false hopes, please.
  22. ashbury

    Mauer Power

    By ashbury,

    I was thinking about the 2012 Twins' imbalance on offense, between getting on base (acceptable) and power (low). A guy we look to for power is Joe Mauer, so I decided to see where he stands at this early stage of the season. Arbitrarily I picked his 2008 season as a benchmark - an excellent season by any standard, but not as insanely high a bar to set as his 2009 season, and one very much in line with his career numbers. In 2008 he had 633 plate appearances, and so far in 2012 he has 83. If I scale up his production proportionally, what do we get?
     
    Year: 2008/2012
    Hits: 176/175
    2B: 31/23
    3B: 4/0
    HR: 9/8
    BB: 84/84
     
    This is almost freakish, especially considering how small the sample-size is for 2012 as yet. He's almost exactly on pace for the same number of hits *and* walks - you can see that the OBP's are similar (.413/.410) but these two components line up too. The home runs are close as well, though largely a coincidence because the lone HR in 2012 could just as easily be 0 or 2.
     
    It's the doubles and triples, which I'll combine as similar kinds of hits especially for a lefty, where he's coming up short in 2012. 35 versus 23, if this performance continues, looks like a significant dropoff for a season, and continues the trend from his 2011 season; a dozen fewer chances to drive Denard or Jamey home from first if one is there, a dozen fewer chances for someone else to drive Joe home with just a single. Of course, I have to repeat that this is a small sample size, and a mere two doubles stretched from singles would have brought things into (freakishly) perfect alignment.
     
    So... what to make of this? First, clutch/RISP issues aside (which I think to be non-existent for Joe anyway), there's nothing horribly wrong with Mauer's hitting, especially only 19 games into the season. Second, nevertheless, I would like to see something changed.
     
    Anecdotally, we've seen too many bases-loaded situations not turn into crooked numbers (or even a vertical); this suggests enough table setting and not enough power. It's not only a question of making better use of these bases-loaded situations; some of these situations would not have been bases-loaded at all if somebody had hit a double to drive in a run earlier in the sequence.
     
    We can't ask most of the Twins table-setters to change; Jamey Carroll isn't going to suddenly start hitting doubles in the gap, and Ben Revere won't be launching balls over the fence anytime soon. We can't ask Clete Thomas to stop swinging and missing, for that matter, though we can ask Gardy to stop penciling him in. And the power guys, Willingham and Morneau, are providing the power (Morneau's batting average aside).
     
    But Joe Mauer is the one guy on the team who has the range of batting skills, IMO, to adjust his game to the needs of his team in a given year. Joe's getting on base at a .410 clip, as mentioned earlier, which is phenomenal. He needs to stop that. Well, if he could give us 2008 numbers, that would be super. But if he has to sacrifice some of the on-base part of his game, to increase the power above even 2008, I think he should do it. Launch a few home runs, drive a lot of balls to the gap. Fifteen homers and 45 doubles/triples? I think he's capable. If he bats only .280 in doing so, with a few less walks, so be it.
     
    This is somewhat independent of being in the #3 slot in the batting order, but that's another good/traditional reason too.
     
    I don't want to think of him as Joe Table-Setter. We need to see Mauer Power. Not because it would make him a "better" hitter, but because it's what the team needs this year. It would be an aspect of "quiet leadership", given that he's not known for being a vocal leader, that would help his team a lot.
  23. ashbury

    Separated at birth?

    By ashbury,

    Another recycled observation from last year, when a certain someone got reassigned...
     
    Is it just me, or does this guy
    http://tinyurl.com/746qaud
    look an awful lot like this guy?
    http://tinyurl.com/2a4u9mk
  24. ashbury
    Regarding the discussion of whom to pick with the #2 choice in the upcoming draft, there is also the group of supplemental picks the Twins will get. Even if the team believes pitching is their sorest need, it's one reasonable strategy to pick a stud position player at #2 and then load up with pitching prospects a little further down in the draft, if you think pitchers are inherently riskier to develop. However, those supplemental draft picks aren't quite the slam-dunk that some people were thinking when the question was whether to re-sign free agents after last season. Here is a lightly-edited excerpt from a posting I made to alt.sports.baseball.mn-twins last December. I'd be interested in people's reactions:
     
    ...Supplemental draft picks are of varying
    value. I prowled around baseball-reference.com's record
    of drafts, going back far enough to evaluate full careers,
    and if you look at the second round of the 1994 June draft,
    i.e. picks 35-63 (about equivalent to current supplemental
    rounds), the only players who made any significant major
    league contribution were Troy Glaus and Matt LeCroy. That
    was admittedly a weak year (1995 had several luminaries
    like Carlos Beltran and Sean Casey), but LeCroy as the
    second best player out of all 29 picks after the real
    first round??? Pretty much the definition of a crapshoot
    unless your team is awarded all the picks, not just two
    or three.
     
    BTW, I saw a suggestion, probably tongue-in-cheek, that the
    Twins should sign Willingham and the A's sign Cuddyer,
    at the same price. Then each team collects the draft
    pick(s), and trades the two players back for each other.
  25. ashbury

    Your 2021 Scottsdale Scorpions!

    By ashbury,


    2021
    I'm in Scottsdale for 3 days in the late-autumn sun.  Well, no sun tonight, but it was a nice evening for a ballgame despite a sparse crowd of under a thousand, with the always convivial baseball fan Mrs Ash attending with me at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick tonight, where we witnessed the Rafters at home defeat "our" Scottsdale Scorpions 3-2. 
    Two Twins prospects were in the starting lineup, Andrew Bechtold playing third base and Michael Helman in left field.  Bechtold showed a willingness to take rather close pitches even with two strikes, walking 3 times but striking out twice, once looking at the third strike - I would have liked to see him put the ball in play a time or three, although his selectivity shows up in his regular season stats in the Twins organization, so it's a part of his game.  Helman put the ball in play three times out of four (striking out on a checked swing his last time up), but a couple of popups on either side of the infield plus a fly to center didn't add up to anything but an 0-for-4.  On the defensive side, Helman wasn't particularly tested but did convert the one fly ball hit his way into an out, while Bechtold made a couple of 5-3 putouts including a very nice throw on a tough chance.  Here's a photo of Helman, I believe, at the plate.

    One Twins prospect, Cody Laweryson, got a chance to pitch in the sixth inning.  His 87-MPH fastball didn't excite me much, and I guess his 78-MPH offering was a curveball.  He pitched what should have been a clean inning with one strikeout, but an error by Red Sox SS prospect Christian Koss (his second of the game) put the leadoff batter on base and a stolen base made it more interesting.  But with two out and the runner on third, Laweryson acquitted himself very well by hustling over to first base for a 3-1 putout against a speedy batter, Brewers outfield prospect Joey Wiemer.
    Speaking of shortstops, Rockies prospect Ezequiel Tovar showed me everything you could want from that position on a play leading off the ninth, by ranging deep to his right and then firing a laser to nip the batter (the aforementioned Koss, as it happens) at first base.  Tovar also hit the 3-run homer that provided Salt River all their runs in the winning effort.  Not bad from the #8 spot in the batting order.  He just turned 20 and was promoted to high-A during the season.  Maybe the Rockies would like to throw him into a trade? Does anyone reading this have a problem with someone named Tovar playing some SS for our Twins?
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